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1 – 10 of over 1000Mariusz Kicia and Dominika Kordela
Fiscal and monetary policies are essential to the development of a capital market. In this chapter, authors present how fiscal and monetary policy in Poland evolved and adjusted…
Abstract
Research Background
Fiscal and monetary policies are essential to the development of a capital market. In this chapter, authors present how fiscal and monetary policy in Poland evolved and adjusted to economic challenges in 1998–2022. It is worth noticing that the Polish economy and financial market have been built from scratch after 45 years of socialism. Hence, it is scientifically interesting to study the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy, and capital market in a developing country, and in a relatively young economy.
Purpose of the Chapter
Both – the macroeconomic policy mix and development of the capital market – are the subject of analysis how fiscal and monetary policy impacted the capital market. As so the main aim of the chapter is the assessment of the nexus and dependencies between fiscal and monetary policy and the capital market.
Methodology
In the chapter, multiple linear regression was used for each dependent variable to discover which monetary and fiscal policy parameters significantly predicted selected variables describing the development of the capital market in Poland. Fiscal and monetary policy variables served as descriptors explaining capital market parameters in seven separate models.
Findings
Multiple regression models explain 77.3%–95.4% of the volatility of the capital market characteristics. The level of the central bank's reference rate is a variable that influences the capital market the most. In six out of seven models, the interest rate was a significant parameter. The development of the capital market was accompanied by a higher tax-to-GDP ratio. At the same time, a strong negative impact of the tax-to-GDP increase was noticed in domestic institutional investors' stock trading.
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This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy.
Design/methodology/approach
The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates.
Findings
This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making.
Originality/value
This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.
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The COVID19 crisis has thrown wide open the debate on Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union’s (EMU) future. Next Generation EU (NGEU) has broken the stalemate over a central fiscal…
Abstract
Purpose
The COVID19 crisis has thrown wide open the debate on Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union’s (EMU) future. Next Generation EU (NGEU) has broken the stalemate over a central fiscal capacity. The open question is whether NGEU is a one-off or a first step. The suspension of the Stability and Growth Pact has given new urgency to the debate on reforming EMU’s fiscal rules.
Design/methodology/approach
There is no debate as yet about how these two prospects relate to each other. This paper argues that a permanent fiscal capacity and revised rules should be seen as alternatives.
Findings
This study makes two claims: first, a fiscal capacity renders a reformed pact unnecessary and second, that is an optimal solution politically. A fiscal capacity would provide an efficient asymmetric shock absorber and therefore reduce the need for pre-emptive action against negative cross-border externalities. It would also provide an abundant supply of an EU-wide safe asset around which to structure the EU’s financial system, thus rendering unnecessary the backstopping of member states' debts.
Originality/value
This would restore democratic accountability while eliminating moral hazard and enforcement problems.
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Olumide O. Olaoye and Mulatu F. Zerihun
The study investigates the effectiveness of government policies to mitigate the impact of a pandemic. The study adopts the small open economy of Nigeria for the following reasons…
Abstract
Purpose
The study investigates the effectiveness of government policies to mitigate the impact of a pandemic. The study adopts the small open economy of Nigeria for the following reasons. First, Nigeria is the largest economy in SSA. Second, Nigeria was also significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employed the time-varying structural autoregressive (TVSVAR) model to control for the potential asymmetry in fiscal variables and to control for the shift in the structural shift, following a macroeconomic shock. As a form of robustness, the study also implements the time-varying Granger causality to formally assess the temporal instability of the variable of interest.
Findings
The results show that an oil price shock is an important source of macroeconomic instability in Nigeria. Importantly, the results indicate that the effects of fiscal policy are strongly time varying. Specifically, the results show that fiscal policy helps to stabilize the economy, (i.e. they help to reduce inflation and spur output growth) following macroeconomic shock. Further, the Granger test shows that fiscal policy helped to spur growth in Nigeria. The research and policy implications are discussed.
Originality/value
The study accounts for the time-varying effects of fiscal policy.
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Abubakar Jamilu Baita, Hussaini Usman Malami and Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan
This study aims to examine the fiscal policy drivers of sovereign sukuk market development in selected Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries. Specifically, the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the fiscal policy drivers of sovereign sukuk market development in selected Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries. Specifically, the research aims to analyze the effects of fiscal deficit, public debt and government expenditure on sovereign sukuk market development, while controlling for macroeconomic and financial factors.
Design/methodology/approach
The sample consists of eight OIC member countries that play active role in the global sukuk market which include Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, Indonesia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey and Sudan. In addition, the study covers a period of 10 years spanning between 2011 and 2020. Similarly, the study uses three models, namely, random effect, generalized least square and system generalized method of moments panel models. To check for the robustness of the results, the study replaces current values of fiscal policy variables with one-year lagged values.
Findings
The findings establish that fiscal policy variables significantly influence the development of sovereign sukuk markets. Specifically, public debt is a significant fiscal variable that promotes sovereign sukuk market development, while fiscal deficit has a negative effect on the development of sovereign sukuk market. However, the findings suggest that government expenditure does not influence sovereign sukuk issuance in the OIC member countries.
Practical implications
The study is significant to both investors and regulators in the sukuk market because it attempts to spotlight the importance of sound fiscal climate in developing sovereign sukuk market. Public debt is a facilitator, whereas fiscal deficit appears to be a constraint. Therefore, policymakers should determine the optimal mix of public debt and fiscal deficit in designing policies that promote sukuk market development.
Originality/value
The novelty of the study is its focus on the role of fiscal policy variables in facilitating sovereign sukuk market development. The study systematically establishes the link between fiscal policy and sovereign sukuk market in the OIC countries. Previous empirical studies focus extensively on the effects of macroeconomic, financial and institutional factors on sukuk market development.
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Qi Zou, Yuan Wang and Sachin Modi
This study uncovers how government interventions, in terms of stringency and support, shape coronavirus disease 2019's (COVID-19) detrimental impact on organizations' performance…
Abstract
Purpose
This study uncovers how government interventions, in terms of stringency and support, shape coronavirus disease 2019's (COVID-19) detrimental impact on organizations' performance. Specifically, this paper studies whether stringency and support play complementary or substitutive roles in lowering COVID-19's impact on organizations' performance.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors gathered primary data from USA manufacturing companies and combined this with secondary data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) to test the proposed model with structural equation modeling (SEM).
Findings
The results show that the stringency approach increases the detrimental impact on both operational and financial performance, while economic support (to households) and fiscal spending (to organizations) work differently on lowering the impacts of COVID-19. Further, these combinative effects only influence the firm's operational performance, albeit in opposite directions.
Originality/value
This study advances the knowledge of government interventions by examining stringency and support's direct and interaction effects on firm performance as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings contribute to the literature by uncovering the unique roles of both supportive policies, thus differentiating economic support (to individuals/households) from fiscal spending (to organizations) and providing important academic, managerial and policy insights into how government should best initiate and blend stringency and support policies during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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John De-Clerk Azure, Chandana Alawattage and Sarah George Lauwo
The World Bank-sponsored public financial management reforms attempt to instil fiscal discipline through techno-managerial packages. Taking Ghana's integrated financial management…
Abstract
Purpose
The World Bank-sponsored public financial management reforms attempt to instil fiscal discipline through techno-managerial packages. Taking Ghana's integrated financial management information system (IFMIS) as a case, this paper explores how and why local actors engaged in counter-conduct against these reforms.
Design/methodology/approach
Interviews, observations and documentary analyses on the operationalisation of IFMIS constitute this paper's empirical basis. Theoretically, the paper draws on Foucauldian notions of governmentality and counter-conduct.
Findings
Empirics demonstrate how and why politicians and bureaucrats enacted ways of escaping, evading and subverting IFMIS's disciplinary regime. Politicians found the new accounting regime too constraining to their electoral and patronage politics and, therefore, enacted counter-conduct around the notion of political exigencies, creating expansionary fiscal conditions which the World Bank tried to mitigate through IFMIS. Perceiving the new regime as subverting their bureaucratic identity and influence, bureaucrats counter-conducted reforms through questioning, critiquing and rhetorical venting. Notably, the patronage politics of appropriating wealth and power underpins both these political and bureaucratic counter-conducts.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the critical accounting understanding of global public financial management reform failures by offering new empirical and theoretical insights as to how and why politicians and bureaucrats who are supposed to own and implement them nullify the global governmentality intentions of fiscal disciplining through subdued forms of resistance.
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This paper aims to develop a compound measure, which is fiscal vulnerability index, provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for Türkiye's economy.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to develop a compound measure, which is fiscal vulnerability index, provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for Türkiye's economy.
Design/methodology/approach
The index is constructed using twelve distinct fiscal indicators and applying the portfolio method, which considers the time-varying cross-correlation structure between the subindices.
Findings
Dynamics of the fiscal vulnerability index indicate that it accurately predicts to the well-known fiscal crisis occurring in Türkiye's recent history. As a result, such a compound measure should be used in the early identification of fiscal vulnerability in Türkiye.
Originality/value
The main contribution of this paper, relative to existing papers, is that a fiscal vulnerability index was constructed by employing the most contemporaneous method and evaluating its performance in terms of capturing historical stress periods.
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Eleni Dalla, Stephanos Papadamou, Erotokritos Varelas and Athanasios Argyropoulos
Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government…
Abstract
Purpose
Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government spending and bank lending.
Design/methodology/approach
Fiscal policy is a main factor of macroeconomic stability for the euro area economy. This paper, investigates the impact of government spending on bank lending. For this reason, we present a dynamic theoretical model with a perfectly competitive banking sector, estimated using panel cointegration for the Eurozone countries from 2000Q1 to 2022Q2.
Findings
Our findings highlight that, in the long run, consistent management of government spending can have a beneficial multiplicative impact on bank lending for housing and business reasons. This finding is stronger in magnitude for business versus housing lending. The high level of homogeneity of our results across Eurozone countries has positive implications for a common fiscal policy in the future. Finally, authorities should know that policy adjustments are quicker in housing lending when compared to business lending.
Originality/value
In this paper, we contribute to the existing literature, concentrating on the investigation of any existence of long-run and short-run relationships between government spending and bank lending. Additionally, our analysis allows one to investigate the contribution of each Eurozone member state in the short-run and long-run model’s dynamics, providing significant outcomes for the implementation of economic policy and the need for fiscal discipline in the Eurozone.
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Nikolaos A. Kyriazis and Emmanouil M.L. Economou
This paper aims to explore the spillover impacts that domestic or global aspects of geopolitical risk generate on uncertainty. The latter is derived from a spectrum of different…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to explore the spillover impacts that domestic or global aspects of geopolitical risk generate on uncertainty. The latter is derived from a spectrum of different sources in the USA (economic policy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, national security, government spending, taxation) from 1985 up to November 2022.
Design/methodology/approach
Vector autoregressive schemes are used to detect causality and reverse causality between each aspect of geopolitical risk and each source of US uncertainty.
Findings
Notably, national security generates higher geopolitical risk by almost 8% in the first month but decreases GPR by 2% in the third month after the shock. USA is found to constitute a cornerstone as regards global peace and that the overall economic or monetary conditions or war status in the USA are remarkably more influential toward domestic and global geopolitical uncertainty than separate strands of fiscal policymaking. Reverse causality displays sizably weaker effects overall.
Originality/value
This study sheds light on the determinants of geopolitical risk and domestic instability by an international perspective and provides a compass for better decision-making for fiscal and monetary policymakers and market participants.
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