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1 – 10 of over 15000Saurabh Sharma, Ipsita Padhi and Sarat Dhal
This paper aims to revisit the theme of fiscal-monetary coordination in a general equilibrium setup that allows for unconventional monetary policy, monetary policy transmission…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to revisit the theme of fiscal-monetary coordination in a general equilibrium setup that allows for unconventional monetary policy, monetary policy transmission and developing country characteristics.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses a calibrated new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study fiscal-monetary interaction.
Findings
Debt sits at the center of monetary-fiscal interaction. Under high-debt conditions, the inflation-output trade-off rises with an increase in the strictness with which monetary policy targets inflation, undermining the standard prescription of strict inflation targeting. At the same time, the transmission of monetary policy is also impeded, due to which unconventional monetary policy becomes more appropriate. The need for coordination among the policies gets enhanced in the presence of borrowing cost channel. While the presence of borrowing cost channel increases the need for policy coordination regardless of the debt situation, features like higher share of non-Ricardian households and weaker monetary policy transmission affect monetary-fiscal interaction to a greater extent under high-debt environment.
Originality/value
First, this paper uses inflation-output trade-off as a metric, to analyze fiscal-monetary interaction. Second, this paper considers the impact of developing country characteristics (such as a higher share of non-Ricardian households, impeded monetary policy transmission and supply constraints/borrowing cost channel) on fiscal-monetary interaction. Third, the DSGE model developed in this paper incorporates open market operations that could shed light on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the presence of high fiscal deficit and debt, which is particularly relevant in the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fourth, the model also permits an investigation into monetary policy transmission under different debt regimes.
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The main purpose of this study is to see the macroeconomic effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in South Africa.
Abstract
Purpose
The main purpose of this study is to see the macroeconomic effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in South Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
The joint effects of monetary and fiscal policy are analyzed by applying short-run contemporaneous restrictions for the identification of shocks in an SVAR in order to derive impulse response functions. Hence, a general AB model of (Amisano and Giannini, 1997) identification scheme, which is not recursive, is employed in this study.
Findings
The author shows that monetary tightening leads to a fall in real economic activity and depreciates the exchange rate. And in regard to the fiscal policy, the author calculates an initial government spending multiplier of 0.20, which later peaks at 0.40. The tax multiplier is almost 0 on impact and statistically insignificant. However, the author finds evidence supporting the existence of accommodative stance between monetary policy and fiscal policy, which is important for economic and political decision-making.
Originality/value
Empirical studies that deal with the joint effects of monetary and fiscal policy for South Africa through the SVAR framework are quite limited. This paper, therefore, contributes to the empirical literature on the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a small open economy like South Africa.
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Isaac Kimunio and Shem Wambugu Maingi
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a catastrophic impact on the tourist activity in Kenya. Global lockdown has limited travel resulting to losses in the tourism sector. This paper…
Abstract
Purpose
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a catastrophic impact on the tourist activity in Kenya. Global lockdown has limited travel resulting to losses in the tourism sector. This paper discusses the specific role that fiscal policy plays to improve tourism competitiveness in Kenya. Specifically, the study examines how Kenyan government can revive the tourism economy to improve its competitiveness.
Design/methodology/approach
A tourism demand model to explore relationship between fiscal policies and inbound tourism in Kenya is developed. This study uses a Markov regime-switching (MS) regression model to establish the relationships that exist between COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal policies and tourism revenue in Kenya.
Findings
The estimation results of the Markov-switching dynamic regression showed that the coefficients of international tourists arrivals, domestic bed occupancy and international bed occupancy are positive and significant with p-values of 0.000 during the pandemic period. The findings show that the transitioning periods during the fiscal policy shifts had an effect on the international arrivals. Therefore, fiscal incentives were key in influencing tourism arrivals and bednights occupancies.
Research limitations/implications
The theoretical implications show that to promote the state of high international and domestic tourist arrivals, the government should encourage more fiscal spending initiatives that encourage the increase in tourist arrivals and occupancies such as vaccinations against COVID-19 and promoting safe spaces for visitors within the destination is key towards reviving the sector. In order to curb the hysteresis effects of COVID-19 related depression and resultant impacts on GDP, there is a need to review the national fiscal policies and target fiscal policies on the cyclical effects of the COVID-19 impacts on international tourism market.
Originality/value
This research develops an economic model that builds accurate relationships between fiscal policies, pandemics and tourism destination competitiveness as a means of informing competitive tourism management strategies and governance.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of fiscal policy, namely, net tax and government expenditure on national saving and its nonlinearity. The author first…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of fiscal policy, namely, net tax and government expenditure on national saving and its nonlinearity. The author first investigates whether the impacts of fiscal policy on national saving have changed after the global financial crisis of 2008. Then, the author tests the nonlinearity of the relationship by taking account of the economic cycle, namely, economic expansion (boom) and economic recession (bust).
Design/methodology/approach
The empirical model bases on a reduced-form equation with national saving as a dependent variable, lagged value of national saving, output gap and fiscal policy as independent variables. The two-step system GMM approach was employed to estimate the empirical model, using a panel of 23 emerging Asian economies in the period of 1990-2015.
Findings
The empirical results show that tax policy and expenditure policy follow the predictions of the overlapping generation model with finite horizon and the Keynesian view. The nonlinearity of fiscal policy is twofold. The conduct of fiscal policy in the period after 2008 seems effective, while the effect is insignificant in the period before 2008. Likewise, fiscal policy tends to have more significant effects in bust cycle. The effect of tax policy is increased during recession, while the effect of government spending is more pronounced during economic downturn.
Originality/value
The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, it is shown that fiscal policies in the region had more impacts on national saving after the global financial crisis of 2008. Second, the research confirms nonlinear impact of fiscal policy on saving behavior during economic recession and economic boom.
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Khurram Ejaz Chandia, Muhammad Badar Iqbal and Waseem Bahadur
This study aims to analyze the imbalances in the public finance structure of Pakistan’s economy and highlight the need for comprehensive reforms. Specifically, it aims to…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to analyze the imbalances in the public finance structure of Pakistan’s economy and highlight the need for comprehensive reforms. Specifically, it aims to contribute to the empirical literature by analyzing the relationship between fiscal vulnerability, financial stress and macroeconomic policies in Pakistan’s economy between 1971 and 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
The study develops an index of fiscal vulnerability, an index of financial stress and an index of macroeconomic policies. The fiscal vulnerability index is based on the patterns of fiscal indicators resulting from past trends of the selected variables in Pakistan’s economy. The financial stress in Pakistan is caused from the financial disorders that are acknowledged in the composite index, which is based on variables with the potential to indicate periods of stress stemming from the foreign exchange market, the securities market and the monetary policy components. The macroeconomic policies index is developed to analyze the mechanism through which fiscal vulnerability and financial stress have influenced macroeconomic policies in Pakistan. The causal association between fiscal vulnerability, financial stress and macroeconomic policies is analyzed using the auto-regressive distributive lags approach.
Findings
There exists a long-run relationship between the three indices, and a bi-directional causality between fiscal vulnerability and macroeconomic policies.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the development of a fiscal monitoring mechanism, which has the basic purpose of analyzing the refinancing risk of public liabilities. Moreover, it focuses on fiscal vulnerability from a macroeconomic perspective. The study tries to develop a framework to assess fiscal vulnerability in light of “The Risk Octagon” theory, which focuses on three risk components: fiscal variables, macroeconomic-disruption-associated shocks and non-fiscal country-specific variables. The initial contribution of this work to the literature is to develop a framework (a fiscal vulnerability index, financial stress index and macroeconomic policies index) for effective and result-oriented macro-fiscal surveillance. Moreover, empirical literature emphasized and advised developing countries to develop their own capacity mechanisms to assess their fiscal vulnerability in light of the IMF guidelines regarding vulnerability assessments. This study thus attempts to fulfill the said gap identified in literature.
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether there is room for a stabilising fiscal policy, through an analysis of the supporters of the new classical economics and the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether there is room for a stabilising fiscal policy, through an analysis of the supporters of the new classical economics and the supporters of the new Keynesian economics. There are no reliable results on the Keynesian and non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policies. As such, the policy-mix becomes a problem of theoretical approach, in the sense of a strategic game between monetary authorities and tax authorities (among them). This points to the problem of coordination between budgetary authorities as being the central debate within the Eurozone. The end-result is that without fiscal policy coordination, Eurozone member states are working on a series of non-cooperative games that are inefficient, because no player can improve its position by unilaterally changing its strategy.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis starts from the experience of three countries in the 1980s, these are Denmark, Ireland and Sweden. In all three cases the adoption of restrictive budget policies has provoked a strong, rapid and enduring resizing of public debt, and growth did not weaken, moreover it accelerated. In all three cases the logic behind the policy-mix actions allowed the individualisation of the respective roles of fiscal and monetary policies. Fiscal policies were joining with fiscal instruments and reduction in public spending and furthermore monetary policy was accommodated in respect of the budget contraction.
Findings
First, the authors were not able to identify an analytical method that can ensure the success of a fiscal policy. Second, analysing fiscal policies within the Eurozone implies also that the authors reflect on the need for a coordination of these policies. In fact, the authors have shown how the possible coordination of economic policies in the Eurozone would result in major benefits for all member countries.
Originality/value
In the absence of fiscal policy coordination, member states are engaged in a series of non-cooperative games that prove inefficient, when no player is able to improve its position by unilaterally changing its fiscal policy. The coordination of national fiscal policies generates a collective advantage, bringing each state to consistently change its strategies.
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The assignment of targets to instruments in developing countries cannot satisfactorily follow any simple universal rule. Which approach is appropriate is influenced by whether the…
Abstract
The assignment of targets to instruments in developing countries cannot satisfactorily follow any simple universal rule. Which approach is appropriate is influenced by whether the economy is dominated by primary exports, by the importance of the domestic bond market and bank credit, by the extent of existing restriction in foreign exchange and financial markets, by the presence or absence of persistent high inflation, and by the existence or non‐existence of an active international market in the country's currency. Eighteen observations and maxims on stabilisation policy are tentatively drawn (pp. 64–8) from the material reviewed, and the maxims are partly summarised (pp. 69–71) in a schematic assignment, with variations, of targets to instruments.
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Stephanos Papadamou and Trifon Tzivinikos
This paper aims to investigate the effects of contractionary fiscal policy shocks on major Greek macroeconomic variables within a structural vector autoregression framework while…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the effects of contractionary fiscal policy shocks on major Greek macroeconomic variables within a structural vector autoregression framework while accounting for debt dynamics.
Design/methodology/approach
The sign restriction approach is applied to identify a linear combination of government spending and government revenue shock simultaneously while accounting for debt dynamics. Additionally, output and unemployment responses to fiscal shocks under different scenarios concerning the amalgamation of austerity measures are considered.
Findings
The results indicate that a contractionary consumption policy shock, namely, a 1 per cent decrease in government consumption and a 1 per cent increase in indirect taxes, is preferred, as it produces a minor decrease in output and substantially decreases public debt, while a contractionary wage policy shock is suitable only when the government aims to sharply reduce public debt, as the consequences for the economy are harsh. A contractionary investment policy shock is not recommended, as it triggers a rise in unemployment and a fall in output, while the effect on the public debt is minor.
Practical implications
Policymakers should focus their efforts on reducing unproductive government consumption on the expenditure side. Concerning revenues, the reinforcement of tax administration is recommended to ensure that indirect taxes will be collected.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the existing literature by providing a disaggregated analysis of the effects of fiscal policy actions in Greece by implementing several fiscal policy scenarios and accounting for the level of public debt. All scenarios are in the vein of the economic adjustment programs guidelines.
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Alhassan Turay, Mehdi Seraj and Hüseyin Özdeşer
The degree of responsiveness of fiscal and monetary policy mechanisms that promote growth and development in Sierra Leone is the subject of this article.
Abstract
Purpose
The degree of responsiveness of fiscal and monetary policy mechanisms that promote growth and development in Sierra Leone is the subject of this article.
Design/methodology/approach
This article uses both the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model presented by Hashem and Yongcheol (1998) and the Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model by Shin et al. (2014) to analyze annual time-series data in evaluating the asymmetric effect of real gross domestic product (RGDP), inflation, government expenditure and money supply using annual time-series data for 40 observations over the period 1980–2019.
Findings
The augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test shows that money supply, government spending and consumer price index are integrated at first difference I (1), while RGDP is stationary at level I (0). The results of the NARDL cointegration test indicate that the variables are cointegrated. The study shows that government expenditure is a positive function of both positive and negative changes. Hence, both positive and negative cumulative sum government expenditures improve economic growth but show a relative weak asymmetric effect with the regressand. This study also reveals that inflation is a negative function of both positive and negative changes with asymmetric effect with the dependent variable. This study shows that the positive change of money supply is statistically insignificant in boosting economic growth, while the negative change positively improves economic growth. Conclusively, this article shows that fiscal policy has a greater and more responsive than monetary policy in promoting growth and development in Sierra Leone. The result of the error correction term of the NARDL model shows a high spend of adjustment of 135% from any disequilibrium of GDP imbalance in the economy.
Originality/value
To address the problem of fiscal dominance in Sierra Leone, this study recommends that fiscal and monetary policies should be coordinated simultaneously and to an appropriate extent to achieve the desired outcome in growth and development.
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This study investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the U.S. economy within the confines of causality testing framework. A unidirectional causal flow is established from…
Abstract
This study investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the U.S. economy within the confines of causality testing framework. A unidirectional causal flow is established from nominal GNP to fiscal expenditures and deficits. Further testing of the data indicates that although fiscal policy does not affect real output, it impacts the CPI.