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This chapter explains how economic analysis can contribute to the delineation of the lone wolf’s opportunities and choices in a manner that allows operationally relevant advice to be contributed to the investigative process.

Using a risk-reward analytical framework we examine the lone wolf’s attack method opportunities and choices and identify those attack methods that would be chosen by lone wolves with different levels of risk aversion. We also use prospect theory as an alternative methodology for the determination of the lone wolf’s preference orderings over the available attack methods in a context where he references his actions against those of a predecessor whom he wishes to emulate.

We find that lone wolf terrorists with different levels of risk aversion can be expected to choose different attack methods or combinations of attack methods. More risk averse lone wolf terrorists will choose attack methods such as assassination. Less risk averse lone wolf terrorists will choose attack methods such as bombing, hostage-taking and unconventional attacks. Also, we find that lone wolf terrorists who reference their actions against ‘predecessor’ lone wolf terrorists will choose differently from among the available attack methods depending on which predecessor lone wolf is being referenced.

The analysis provides two different perspectives on terrorist choice but by no means exhausts the analytical alternatives. The analysis focuses on the fatalities and injuries inflicted whereas other perspectives might include different ‘payoffs’ series, including news or media coverage.

The chapter contributes an analysis of the order in which lone wolf terrorists with particular characteristics will choose from a set of available attack methods. During the course of our discussion we point out the consistency between the ‘rise’ of the lone wolf terrorist and the diseconomies to scale that are evident within the terrorism context. This presents the opportunity for new debates.

Universal helmet laws (UHLs) are widely believed to be effective in reducing motorcycle fatalities. In this chapter, we further investigate the effectiveness of such policies by focusing on their long-term impact as well as their effect on motorcycle use. Using state-level longitudinal data from 1975 to 2005, we estimate how the adoption and repeal of UHLs influence motorcycle safety. Our results confirm earlier findings that adoption of UHLs prevents fatalities, whereas repeals lead to higher fatality rates. We provide evidence that UHLs operate as intended, decreasing fatalities mainly by improving safety rather than by reducing motorcycle riding. Finally, using dynamic specifications, we show that the long-term effects of both adoption and repeal persist in the years beyond the policy change.

The most enduring measure of how individuals make personal decisions affecting their health and safety is the compensating wage differential for job safety risk revealed in the labor market via hedonic equilibrium outcomes. The decisions in turn reveal the value of a statistical life (VSL), the value of a statistical injury (VSI), and the value of a statistical life year (VSLY), which have both mortality and morbidity aspects that we describe and apply here. All such tradeoff rates play important roles in policy decisions concerning improving individual welfare. Specifically, we explicate the recent empirical research on VSL and its related concepts and link the empirical results to the ongoing examinations of many government policies intended to improve individuals' health and longevity. We pay special attention to recent issues such as the COVID pandemic and newly emerging foci on distributional consequences concerning which demographic groups may benefit most from certain regulations.

This chapter reviews the safety of railway operation in Europe particularly by examining the causes of fatalities over periods of up to three decades ending in 2017. Fatalities are examined to passengers, staff, level crossing users, and trespassers, together with a brief look at suicides. The accidents that attract most attention are fatal train collisions and derailments because they can result in multiple fatalities, and are in most cases wholly the responsibility of the railway operators. However, train accidents are infrequent, and account for only about 1% of all railway fatalities if suicides are included, or 3% if they are not. The fatal train accident rate per train-kilometre fell at a rate of 5.4% per year between 1990 and 2017 and was 77% lower in 2017 than it had been in 1990. This chapter goes on to discuss level crossings, which account for far more fatalities than train accidents, personal accidents, accidents to trespassers, and suicides. This chapter ends with a brief look at the evidence of the effect of rail restructuring on safety.

There is no industry in the world where a crisis caused by terrorism has such a strong impact as in tourism. Providing security for visitors before and during a trip can be a critical success factor for the competitiveness of a particular destination or organization or for business tourism when tourists consider multiple alternatives. Information about political instability, violence, crime or terrorist attacks could cause a substitution effect by tourists. International terrorism and tourism share some characteristics, as both cross national borders, involve citizens from different countries and use the new travel and communications technologies. In recent decades, terrorism organizations have been using tourism targets to gain global visibility. Based on a broad analysis of literature and data, the main goal of this research is to update the work of Seabra (2019) and help to analyse the main connections between terrorism and tourism, specifically by presenting the main terrorist events targeting tourism activity and destinations in the last 35 years and their main consequences for tourism industry.

The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine whether the massive spreads and fatalities of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA, the country with the most advanced medical technology in the world, are symptomatic of leadership failure. The authors posit that when political leaders, such as the President of the USA, in conjunction with a group of state governors and city mayors, employed conspiracy theories and disinformation to achieve their political goals, they contributed to the massive spreads and fatalities of the virus, and they also undermined the credibility of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the health-care professionals in providing the pertinent control guidelines and true scientific-based medical information.

The authors conducted a review of current studies that address the handling of global infectious diseases to build a better understanding of the issue of pandemics. They then employed a theoretical framework to link the massive spreads and fatalities of the COVID-19 pandemic to political leaders, such as President Trump and the group of obsequious state governors and city mayors, who propagated conspiracy theories and disinformation through social media platforms to downplay the severity of the virus. The authors compared the massive spreads and fatalities of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA under President Trump to President Obama who handled H1N1, Ebola, Zika and Dengue. More importantly, the authors compared President Trump's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic to other political leaders in advanced countries where there were no concerted efforts to spread conspiracy theories and disinformation about the health risks of COVID-19 pandemic.

The authors' theoretical analysis alluded to the fact that political leaders, such as President Trump, who are engulfed in self-deceptions, self-projections and self-aggrandizements would engage in self-promotion and avoid accountability for their missteps in handling global pandemic shocks. In contrast, political leaders in other advanced countries did not downplay the severity thus their ability to curtail the spreads and fatalities of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The theoretical viewpoints presented in this paper along with the derivations of the spreads–fatalities curtailment coefficients and the spread–fatality upsurge coefficients under Presidents Obama and Trump, respectively, may not be replicable. Given this plausible limitation, future research may need to provide a deep analysis of the amplifications of conspiracy theories and disinformation because they are now deeply rooted in the political economy of the USA. Furthermore, since scientists and medical professionals may not be able to forecast future epidemics or pandemics with pin-point accuracy nor predict how political leaders would disseminate health risks information associated with different pathogens, it is imperative that future research addresses the positive or adverse effects of conspiracy theories and disinformation that are now easily propagated simultaneously through different social media platforms, which are currently protected under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. The multiplier effects of conspiracy theories and disinformation will continue to amplify the division about the authenticity of COVID-19 pandemic and the emergence or reemergence of other pathogens in the foreseeable future.

The authors derived the unique spreads-fatalities curtailment coefficients to demonstrate how President Obama used effective collaboration and coordination at all levels of government in conjunction with medical experts to curtail the spreads and fatalities associated with H1N1, Ebola, Zika and Dengue. They further derived the spreads-fatalities upsurge coefficients to highlight how President Trump contributed to the spreads and fatalities of COVID-19 pandemic through his inability to collaborate and coordinate with state governors, city mayors and different health-care agencies at the national and international levels.

The purpose of this study is to determine the proportion of the population that will be susceptible to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the proportions of infections, recoveries and fatalities from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The design was a longitudinal survey of COVID-19 infections, recoveries and fatalities in Nigeria using the data on the daily updates of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control for the period 1 May to 23 August 2020. Markov chain analysis was performed on the data.

The results showed that in the long run, 8.4% of the population will be susceptible to COVID-19 infections, 26.4% of them will be infected, 61.2% of the infected will recover and 4% will become fatal. Thus, if this pattern of infections and recoveries continue, the majority of the infected people in Nigeria will recover whilst a very small proportion of the infected people will die.

A dearth of the extant literature on the problem, especially from the management science perspective.

Results of the study will facilitate policymakers’ response to the curtailment of the pandemic in Nigeria.

Curtailing the pandemic through the results of this study will assist in easing the social consequences of the pandemic.

The proposed adjustment to the susceptibilities, infections and recoveries model through the introduction of a fourth state (fatality) to get the susceptibilities, infections, recoveries and fatalities model, signalling a point of departure from previous studies.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate variability in law enforcement officer (LEO) traffic fatality rates among states in order to identify policy-relevant areas of opportunity to reduce deaths.

Differences in state highway spending, regulatory policy, law enforcement training, LEO and general public traffic fatalities, and other state-level variables are explored through cross-sectional regression analysis and qualitative content analysis. Data were used from the Federal Bureau of Investigation Crime in the USA and LEOs Killed and Assaulted reports, and the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration Fatality Analysis Reporting System, among other sources.

There are a number of significant state-level variables and trends that contribute to differences in LEO traffic fatality rates. Maximum highway speed limits and general population traffic fatalities are found to be statistically significant predictors. Thematic factors relating to LEO exceptionalism, agency sovereignty, training, and external control loci, emerged through qualitative analysis.

Limitations included differences in definition, consistency, and reporting among data sources. Qualitative analysis of some variables were limited and future research should pursue more robust and repeated/longitudinal measures.

Policymakers have an opportunity to review significant factors contributing to higher/lower collision involvement rates and make changes to police practices to reduce collision involvement and improve safety for LEOs.

No prior study has offered a national, cross-case analysis of LEO traffic fatalities by state. This paper offers law enforcement policymakers empirical examples of successful LEO traffic safety policies.