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This paper aims to address two fundamental questions: (1) How has Bahrain's industrial policy evolved during the 21st century? and (2) what factors contribute to this evolution?
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to address two fundamental questions: (1) How has Bahrain's industrial policy evolved during the 21st century? and (2) what factors contribute to this evolution?
Design/methodology/approach
Utilizing secondary data, this paper identifies key decision-makers responsible for economic policy in Bahrain and delineates the evolution of Bahrain's industrial policy throughout the 21st century. Subsequently, it employs a series of interviews with elite civil servants engaged in the formulation and implementation of Bahrain's economic policies to understand the reasons behind the observed changes.
Findings
Since assuming the role of Crown Prince in 1999, Sh. Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa has been the key economic decision-maker in Bahrain. During the 21st century, Bahrain has shifted away from decisions closely aligned with the Washington Consensus towards those more in line with classical industrial policy. Interviews reveal that the private sector's underperformance in job creation, coupled with fiscal pressures, has driven this departure from the Washington Consensus. Moreover, the early successes of the interventionist Saudi Vision 2030 and Bahrain's own success in technocratically managing the COVID-19 pandemic have accelerated this transition.
Practical implications
Insights into the determinants of Bahrain's industrial policy can guide policymakers in refining future strategies. Recognizing the positive role of intellectual developments in academic economics literature becomes crucial for informed decision-making.
Originality/value
This paper fills a gap in the existing literature by providing answers to its research questions, particularly considering the significant changes witnessed in Bahrain's industrial policy post-pandemic.
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Mengfei Zhu and Yitao Tao
This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporation innovation in innovative cities. The study sheds light on different results from the previous…
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporation innovation in innovative cities. The study sheds light on different results from the previous literature by testing the moderator effects of entrepreneurial risk appetite on such impact.
Design/methodology/approach
A static panel estimator is applied to a Chinese sample of 416 firm-year observations from 2010 to 2019. This paper uses regression model to test the impact of uncertainty on enterprise innovation in innovative cities, and to test the regulatory role of entrepreneurial risk appetite. For a series of robustness analysis conducted by the author to deal with endogeneity, the results are robust.
Findings
The author finds reliable evidence that the economic policy uncertainty can promote corporations to invest more in R&D in innovative cities. In addition, the role of the entrepreneurial initiative is significant, and there is a positive moderating effect of entrepreneurial risk appetite between policy uncertainty and corporation innovation.
Research limitations/implications
From a practical point of view, this study examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporation innovation in innovative cities for the first time. It emphasizes the role of entrepreneurial risk-taking in the development of corporation innovation in Shenzhen, an innovative city. This research is of great significance to the formulation of government policies and the innovative choice of entrepreneurs. In addition, the research shows that the entrepreneurial risk appetite in innovative cities can have a positive impact on enterprise innovation. Therefore, when formulating policies, the government should take the subjective factors of entrepreneurs into account and support enterprises with innovation potential. The evidence of this study also helps entrepreneurs make innovative decisions and enhance their confidence in enterprise development.
Originality/value
By studying the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise innovation under the regulation of enterprise risk appetite, this study shows the subjective and positive role of entrepreneurs in risk grasp in innovative cities for the first time. In addition, it fills the gap of the impact of policy uncertainty on innovative urban enterprises. In fact, although it is traditionally believed that economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on enterprise innovation, the sensitive findings of this study reveal completely different results from previous studies.
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Jihane Benkhaira and Hafid El Hassani
The present article aims to estimate an autoregressive vector model covering the period of 1990–2021 to analyze the effect of public spending and monetary supply increases in…
Abstract
Purpose
The present article aims to estimate an autoregressive vector model covering the period of 1990–2021 to analyze the effect of public spending and monetary supply increases in economic activity in Morocco.
Design/methodology/approach
A literature review on the policy of recovery with fiscal and monetary tools and its theoretical foundations was established. Then, an empirical study on the Moroccan context was executed to study the effectiveness of these instruments in Morocco from 1990 to 2021, using autoregressive vector modeling.
Findings
The results present a state of a positive relationship and statistical significance of public spending, money supply and economic growth. The impulse response function analysis and the forecast error variance decomposition showed that public spending does not have a large impact on gross domestic product, while the money supply has a real power to stimulate the growth of economic activity in Morocco.
Originality/value
This study aims to demonstrate the positive effect of the coordination of public spending and monetary supply increases on gross domestic product in Morocco. Additionally, the analysis using vector autoregressive modeling, impulse response functions, variance decomposition techniques and causality tests, provides crucial insights to guide researchers, practitioners and policymakers in developing more effective and resilient economic strategies. The findings from this study not only illuminate immediate recovery strategies but also contribute to strengthening the resilience of economies against potential future shocks.
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Zezhou Wu, Kaijie Yang, Zhangmin Wu, Hong Xue, Shenghan Li and Maxwell Fordjour Antwi-Afari
Prefabricated construction is an innovative technique for decreasing carbon emissions in the construction industry. However, as the investors of housing projects, a majority of…
Abstract
Purpose
Prefabricated construction is an innovative technique for decreasing carbon emissions in the construction industry. However, as the investors of housing projects, a majority of developers are unwilling to adopt prefabricated housing in practice. To promote prefabricated housing, this study aims to develop an integrated framework of fuzzy-decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (fuzzy-DEMATEL) and system dynamics (SD) to understand the underlying influencing mechanism of developers' willingness.
Design/methodology/approach
Through literature review, a total of 17 influencing factors were identified. Then, the interrelationships among the factors were evaluated by 10 experienced professionals, and the impacts given and received by each factor were further analyzed through fuzzy-DEMATEL. Based on the technology acceptance model (TAM), a SD model was developed to explore the influencing mechanism.
Findings
The major cause factors were identified, including mandatory implementation policies, economic incentive policies, environmental protection policies, component standardization and developers' economic strength. This group of factors was expected to be given priority attention in the case of limited resources. On the other hand, the results indicated that economic incentive policies and mandatory implementation policies could affect the developers' willingness via perceived usefulness, while the others mainly influenced perceived ease of use.
Originality/value
Little research has focused on the interrelationships among the influencing factors of developers' willingness to adopt prefabricated housing. This study contributed to understanding the mechanism of developers' willingness from a systematic view and providing the priority of influencing factors. Several strategies were proposed to improve the practical implementation of prefabricated housing development.
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Mohit Kumar and P. Krishna Prasanna
To investigate the role of domestic and foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in driving the corporate bond yields in emerging markets.
Abstract
Purpose
To investigate the role of domestic and foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in driving the corporate bond yields in emerging markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The study utilizes monthly data from January 2008 to June 2023 from the selected emerging economies. The data analysis is conducted using univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques. The study includes bond market liquidity and global volatility (VIX) as control variables.
Findings
Domestic EPU has a significant role in driving corporate bond yields in these markets. The study finds weak evidence to support the role of the USA EPU in influencing corporate bond yields in emerging economies. Domestic EPU holds more weight and influence than the EPU originating from the United States of America.
Research limitations/implications
The findings provide useful insights to policymakers about the potential impact of policy uncertainty on corporate bond yields and enable them to make informed decisions regarding economic policies that maintains financial stability. Understanding the relationship between EPU and corporate bond yields enables investors to optimize their investment decisions in emerging market economies, opens the scope for further research on the interaction between EPU and volatility and other attributes of fixed income markets.
Originality/value
Focuses specifically on the emerging market economies in Asia, providing an in-depth analysis of the dynamics and challenges faced by these countries, Explores the influence of both domestic and the USA EPU on corporate bond yields in emerging markets, offering valuable insights into the transmission channels and impact of EPU from various sources.
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Zeqi Liu, Zefeng Tong and Zhonghua Zhang
This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment, and government science and technology investment.
Design/methodology/approach
This study constructs and estimates a New Keynesian model of endogenous technological progress embedded in the research and development (R&D) and technology transfer sectors. Using Chinese macroeconomic time series data from 1996 to 2019, this study calibrates and estimates the model and analyzes the impulse response function and a counterfactual simulation of expenditure structure adjustment.
Findings
The results show that compared with the traditional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the endogenous process of technological progress amplifies the impact of government consumption shock and traditional government investment shock on the macroeconomy, leading to greater economic cycle fluctuations. As government investment in science and technology has positive external spillover effects on firm R&D activities and the application of innovation achievements, it can promote more sustainable economic growth than government consumption and traditional investment in the long run.
Originality/value
This study constructs an extended New Keynesian model with different types of government spending, which includes endogenous technological progress within the R&D and technology transfer sectors, thereby linking fiscal policy, business cycle fluctuations and long-term economic growth. This model can study the macroeconomic impact of fiscal expenditure structure adjustment when fiscal expansion is limited. In the Bayesian estimation of model parameters, this study not only uses macroeconomic variables but also adds a sequence of private R&D investment.
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Muhammad Aftab, Saman Shehzadi and Fiza Qureshi
This research intends to investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the firm's leverage and its adjustment speed.
Abstract
Purpose
This research intends to investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the firm's leverage and its adjustment speed.
Design/methodology/approach
This study applies dynamic panel data modeling by using a partial adjustment model. The study is based on secondary data of the non-financial firms that are listed on the Pakistan stock exchange. For the analysis purpose, the study applies the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique and uses a newly developed text-based measure of economic policy uncertainty.
Findings
The results show the negative impact of EPU on leverage decisions but a positive impact of EPU on leverage speed of adjustment for both, short-run and long-run economic policy shocks. Additional analysis reveals that the negative influence of long-run policy shocks on leverage decisions is moderated through profitability, and the negative influence of short-run policy shocks on leverage is moderated through firm size, tangibility and available growth prospects. However, the significant positive impact of EPU on the leverage speed of adjustment in both short and long-term policy shocks indicates that the speed of adjustment for these firms is not affected by policy shocks.
Originality/value
This research contributes to the existing literature on capital structure dynamics,by investigating the impact of EPU on firm financing decisions and estimating the adjustment speed of capital structure in a developing market context. The study also extends the existing literature by applying the concept of long-run and short-run economic policy uncertainty in the capital structure dynamic framework. Additionally, the new news-based measure of EPU is used. Moreover, it also looks into the COVID-19 effect on the relationship.
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Jonathan E. Ogbuabor, Victor A. Malaolu and Anthony Orji
This study investigated the asymmetric effects of changes in policy uncertainty on real sector variables in Brazil, China, India and South Africa.
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigated the asymmetric effects of changes in policy uncertainty on real sector variables in Brazil, China, India and South Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
The study used the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modeling framework.
Findings
The results showed that both in the long run and short run, rising uncertainty not only increases consumer prices significantly in these economies, but also impedes aggregate and sectoral output growths, and deters investment, employment and private consumption. Contrary to economic expectation, the results also showed that in the long run, declining uncertainty impedes aggregate and sectoral output growths in these economies, and significantly hinders employment in South Africa and Brazil. This suggests that in the long run, economic agents in these economies somewhat behave as if uncertainty is rising. The authors also found significant asymmetric effects in the response of real sector variables to uncertainty both in the long run and short run, which justifies the choice of NARDL framework for this study.
Research limitations/implications
The sample is limited to Brazil, India, China and South Africa. While Brazil, India and China are three of the most prominent large emerging market economies, South Africa is the largest emerging market economy in Africa.
Practical implications
To lessen the adverse effects of policy uncertainty observed in the results, there is need for sound institutions and policy regimes that can promote predictable policy responses in these economies so that policy neither serves as a source of uncertainty nor as a channel through which the effects of other shocks are transmitted.
Originality/value
Apart from using the NARDL framework to capture the asymmetric effects of policy uncertainty, this study also accounted for the sectoral effects of uncertainty in emerging markets.
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This study aims to shed light on the experience of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in balancing three main pillars: the environmental criteria, the reduction of CO2 emissions and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to shed light on the experience of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in balancing three main pillars: the environmental criteria, the reduction of CO2 emissions and the economic growth. Based on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework, it will assess the causal relationship between economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, trade openness and energy use and environmental indicators such as CO2 emissions.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis relies on a period of 40 years (1981–2020) where data is extracted from the World Bank database. This study uses the unit root test for time series stationarity, the optimal lag length test, the “Johansen” test for co-integration and the vector error correction model.
Findings
The paper concludes to two major findings. On a short-term basis, CO2 emissions and economic indicators are negatively correlated, whereas on a long-term basis, there is no association between CO2 emissions and economic indicators in the UAE.
Research limitations/implications
The research ends with important recommendations. It illustrates the importance of rationalizing the use of primary resources and the necessity to embrace successful and efficient policies in the energy production.
Practical implications
More specifically, UAE is urged to address the problem of CO2 emissions in the electricity sector and increase awareness of the use of environmentally friendly processes in the transport and industrial sectors. While setting their economic agendas, UAE are encouraged to meet environmental criteria and invest in renewable energy projects such as “Shams 1”, the largest solar power plant outside of Spain and the USA.
Originality/value
The current study is significant in its research on the environmental impact of economic development, trade openness and energy use policies in the UAE. It uses CO2 emissions as an environmental proxy and evaluates the environmental policies adopted in the UAE to reduce its impact.
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Firdaus Kurniawan, Hilma Tsani Amanati, Albertus Henri Listyanto Nugroho and Nandya Octanti Pusparini
This study investigates the impact of government and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on companies' business operations, especially risk-taking tendencies and corporate financial…
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the impact of government and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on companies' business operations, especially risk-taking tendencies and corporate financial reporting quality (FRQ).
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs the generalised least squares regression model. The final sample comprised 27,376 company-year observations from eight countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
Findings
EPU has a negative and significant effect on investment activity and FRQ. Higher EPU leads to a decline in investment and FRQ.
Research limitations/implications
There are several limitations in this study. First, the authors used abnormal investments to measure investments, without considering the degree of irreversibility investment objectives. Second, although control variables are included at the company and country levels, they may only partially control for companies' mitigation effects. Third, the sample is limited to developing countries with unique characteristics in Asia-Pacific; therefore, the findings cannot be generalised.
Practical implications
The findings can help investors, analysts and regulators evaluate EPU's impact on companies' business activities by offering an overview regarding the decline in investment efficiency and FRQ. The results can also be used as input for regulators in formulating policies that encourage companies to regulate investment levels without harming other stakeholders and maintain FRQ during periods of uncertainty.
Originality/value
This research provides intriguing insights into EPU's effects on companies' investment activity and FRQ in developing countries, which are sensitive to changes in macroeconomic conditions.
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