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The purpose of the chapter is to specify effects of crises and to evaluate their influence on growth and development of socio-economic systems.

The authors use the method of regression analysis, with the help of which dependence on growth of the global GDP of various indicators that reflect crisis effects is determined. The information and analytical basis of the research is statistical materials of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Timeframe of the research covers 2007–2016. The research is performed at the level of global economy on the whole for provision of representativeness of data and authenticity of results.

It is determined that influence of crisis on socio-economic system is expressed in short-term, mid-term, and long-term periods, including the next phase of economic cycle (phase of rise). Growth and development of economy after crisis are predetermined by its influence – crisis creates in a socio-economic system the environment that makes economic subject and state regulators cooperate and stimulate more active state support for society and business. Comprehensive study of the wave of economic cycle allows determining crisis as an impulse for development of economy, which expands its traditional negative treatment as a source of recession. It is also shown that crisis leads not only to financial (reduction of total savings in economy) but also social (growth of unemployment rate) and other – e.g., ecological (post-crisis increase of the share of renewable energy in the structure of production of electric energy) – effects in the economic system.

It is substantiated that influence of crises on growth and development of socio-economic systems is contradictory. On the one hand, crisis leads to temporary decline of GDP and slows down the development of socio-economic systems. On the other hand, crisis opens new possibilities for further growth and development of these systems, preventing their stagnation.

The purpose of the work is to determine the signs of conflicts in social effects of crises of economic systems and to determine perspectives of studying crises on the basis of the concept of economic conflicts.

For determining the signs of conflicts in social effects of crises of economic systems, this work uses the method of qualitative break-even analysis, the methods of systemic, problem, and structural and functional analysis, and the method of formalization (table presentation of authors’ conclusions).

It is substantiated that social causes and social manifestations and consequences of crises of economic systems have signs of conflicts – violation of balance of socio-economic phenomena and processes and the following negative reaction of economic subjects. Causal connections of distribution of conflicts within social effects of crises of economic systems are determined and a preferable method of their regulation is offered.

A new method of state regulation of socio-economic system for overcoming its crisis and crisis management is offered. An advantage and essential difference of this method from the traditional one is influence on social cause of crisis (not on its economic and social consequences), due to which it is possible to quickly overcome the crisis and reduce the risk of its renewal.

The purpose of the chapter is to determine common regularities and peculiarities of the influence of the 2008 crisis on development of socio-economic systems in view of developed and developing countries.

The methodology of this research includes the developed author’s conceptual model of conflict of socio-economic system as an analog of the model of economic cycle. As crisis is a manifestation/example of economic conflict, this model could be used for studying it. Also, the method of comparative analysis is used for comparing the influence of the 2008 crisis on development of socio-economic systems from various categories. The objects of the research are selections of countries according to classification of the International Monetary Fund – leading developed countries (advanced economies) and emerging market and developing economies. The studied indicator is annual growth rate of GDP in constant prices.

Modeling and analysis of the influence of the 2008 crisis on development of socio-economic systems of developed and developing countries are performed, with crisis considered as a wave of economic cycle. Apart from common regularities of the 2008 crisis in socio-economic systems – vivid and short negative reaction and double wave of crisis – we determined peculiarities of influence of this crisis on economies of developed and developing countries. These peculiarities are connected to the fact that the 2008 crisis was deeper in developed countries than in developing countries, but the crisis was developing according to the optimistic scenario (long waves) and was overcome in 2012. In developed countries, the crisis was developing according to the pessimistic scenario (short waves), and negative reaction renewed in 2012, with another one expected in 2021.

It is substantiated that insufficiently intensive and successful management of crisis in developing countries will probably become a cause of increase of differentiation of countries in the global economic system, which is expressed in growth of underrun of developing countries from developed countries.

The purpose of the chapter is to determine specific and common features of social conflicts and economic crises and substantiate the necessity for their complex research within the theory of economic conflicts.

For determining the differences between social conflict and economic crisis, the authors use the methods of deduction and comparative analysis; for determining the common features of conflict and crisis of socio-economic system, the authors use the method of induction, synthesis, analysis of causal connections (logical analysis), and the methodology of the systemic approach. Also, the method of formalization (graphic presentation of authors’ conclusions) is used.

Comparative analysis of conflict and crisis of socio-economic system according to the existing scientific ideas is performed, and it substantiates that traditional differentiation of social conflicts and economic crises contradicts the scientific ideas on integrity of socio-economic systems in the integrity of the public and economic components. Based on the theory of systems, common features of conflict and crisis of socio-economic system are determined. It is shown that conflict is a wider notion than crisis, which is a private manifestation/example of conflict. An algorithm of conflict’s transition into crisis of socio-economic system is presented.

The universal scientific category should be “economic conflict,” which has the features of social conflict and economic crisis. The offered notion specifies the categorical tools of economics and provides a possibility to study previously neglected social effects of crises of economic systems as manifestations of conflicts in them. The obtained conclusions allowed for systematization of scientific knowledge in the sphere of contradictions of socio-economic systems. Due to this, it is possible to study cyclic fluctuations of these systems within multi-disciplinary studies at the joint of social and economic science and within the economic theory.

The purpose of the chapter is to compare social and economic effects that accompany crises of economic systems.

According to the adopted classification of causes of conflicts of socio-economic systems, the indicators that reflect potential social and economic causes of crisis are determined. Regression analysis is performed, and multiple regression dependence of economic growth of Russia’s economic system (values of growth of GDP in constant prices) on the indicators that characterize social and economic causes of crisis is determined; correlation analysis is performed and correlation of each indicator of causes and the indicator of economic growth is determined.

It is shown by the example of modern Russia that subjective (social factors) have the key role in determining cyclic fluctuations of economic system – together with objective (economic effects). Social causes of crisis are almost as important as economic causes. In view of generally acknowledged social consequences of crises (growth of inflation and unemployment level), it is possible to state a relatively equal role of economic and social effects that accompany crises of economic systems. The information and empirical basis of the chapter consists of the statistical materials of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the OECD. The research is performed by the example of modern Russia’s economic system; its timeframe covers 1999–2018 (recent 20 years).

The obtained conclusions show the necessity and open perspectives for specifying the existing theory of cycles in the aspect of inclusion of social effects into the model of cyclic (wave) fluctuations of economic systems.

Purpose – This chapter draws on several areas of scholarship to consider the impact of economic crises on the utility of economic costly signalling theory (ECST).

Design/methodology/approach – The chapter introduces the problem of economic crises into the debate over ECST to better understand its practical utility. It first highlights the pacific benefits anticipated by ECST to provide a conceptual baseline. It then reviews contemporary economic and political science literature that links economic integration, economic crises and external conflict. Finally, it introduces a perspective on how the conditions created by economic crises reduce the ability and willingness of states to send economic costly signals.

Findings – The chapter finds that the value of ECST to security policy is problematic when considering the occurrence of economic crises.

Originality/value – This chapter advances the debate over capitalist peace theory by introducing the problem of economic crises to the discourse.

This study aims to develop a methodology for predicting the resilience of individual firms to economic crisis, using historical government data to optimize one of the most important and costly interventions that governments undertake, the huge economic stimulus programs that governments implement for mitigating the consequences of economic crises, by making them more focused on the less resilient and more vulnerable firms to the crisis, which have the highest need for government assistance and support.

The authors are leveraging existing firm-level data for economic crisis periods from government agencies having competencies/responsibilities in the domain of economy, such as Ministries of Finance and Statistical Authorities, to construct prediction models of the resilience of individual firms to the economic crisis based on firms’ characteristics (such as human resources, technology, strategies, processes and structure), using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques from the area of machine learning (ML).

The methodology has been applied using data from the Greek Ministry of Finance and Statistical Authority about 363 firms for the Greek economic crisis period 2009–2014 and has provided a satisfactory prediction of a measure of the resilience of individual firms to an economic crisis.

The authors’ study opens up new research directions concerning the exploitation of AI/ML in government for a critical government activity/intervention of high importance that mobilizes/spends huge financial resources. The main limitation is that the abovementioned first application of the proposed methodology has been based on a rather small data set from a single national context (Greece), so it is necessary to proceed to further application of this methodology using larger data sets and different national contexts.

The proposed methodology enables government agencies responsible for the implementation of such economic stimulus programs to proceed to radical transformations of them by predicting the resilience to economic crisis of the firms applying for government assistance and then directing/focusing the scarce available financial resources to/on the ones predicted to be more vulnerable, increasing substantially the effectiveness of these programs and the economic/social value they generate.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first application of AI/ML in government that leverages existing data for economic crisis periods to optimize and increase the effectiveness of the largest and most important and costly economic intervention that governments repeatedly have to make: the economic stimulus programs for mitigating the consequences of economic crises.

The context conditions for third sector organizations (TSOs) in Europe have significantly changed as a result of the global economic crisis, including decreasing levels of public funding and changing modes of relations with the state. The effect of economic recession, however, varies across Europe. The purpose of this paper is to understand why this is the case. It analyses the impact of economic recession and related policy changes on third sector development in Europe. The economic effects on TSOs are thereby placed into a broader context of changing third sector policies and welfare state restructuring.

The paper focusses on two research questions: how has the changing policy environment affected the development of the third sector? And what kind of strategies have TSOs adopted to respond to these changes? The paper first investigates general trends in Europe, based on a conceptual model that focusses on economic recession and austerity policies with regard to the third sector. In a second step of analysis, the paper provides five country case studies that exemplify policy changes and responses from the third sector in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain.

The paper argues that three different development paths can be identified across Europe. In some countries (France and Spain), TSOs face a strong effect of economic recession. In other countries (Germany and Poland) the development of the third sector remains largely stable, albeit at different levels, whereas in the Netherlands, TSOs rather experience changes in the policy environment than a direct impact of economic decline. The paper also shows that response strategies of the third sector in Europe depend on the context conditions. The paper is based on the European project “Third Sector Impact.” It combines an analysis of statistical information with qualitative data from interviews with third sector representatives.

The paper contributes to our understanding of the interrelation between economic recession, long-term policy changes and third sector development in Europe.

Public sector has started exploiting artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, however, mainly for operational but much less for tactical or level tasks. The purpose of this study is to exploit AI for the highest strategic-level task of government: to develop an AI-based public sector data analytics methodology for supporting policymaking for one of the most serious and large-scale challenges that governments repeatedly face, the economic crises that lead to economic recessions (though the proposed methodology is of much more general applicability).

A public sector data analytics methodology has been developed, which enables the exploitation of existing public and private sector data, through advanced processing of them using a big data-oriented AI technique, “all-relevant” feature selection, to identify characteristics of firms as well as their external environment that affect (positively or negatively) their resilience to economic crisis.

A first application of the proposed public sector data analytics methodology has been conducted, using Greek firms’ data concerning the economic crisis period 2009–2014, which has led to interesting conclusions and insights, revealing factors affecting the extent of sales revenue decrease in Greek firms during the above crisis period and providing a first validation of the methodology used in this study.

This paper contributes to the advancement of two emerging highly important, for the society, but minimally researched, digital government research domains: public sector data analytics (and especially policy analytics) and government exploitation of AI. It exploits an AI feature selection algorithm, the Boruta “all-relevant” variables identification algorithm, which has been minimally exploited in the past for public sector data analytics, to support the design of public policies for addressing one of the most serious and large-scale economic challenges that governments repeatedly face: the economic crises.

The proposed methodology allows the identification of characteristics of firms as well as their external environment that affect positively or negatively their resilience to economic crisis. This enables a better understanding of the kinds of firms that are more strongly hit by the crisis, which is quite useful for the design of public policies for supporting them; and at the same time reveals firms’ practices, resources, capabilities, etc. that enhance their ability to cope with economic crisis, to design policies for promoting them through educational and support activities.

This methodology can be very useful for the design of more effective public policies for reducing the negative impacts of economic crises on firms, and therefore mitigating their negative consequences for the society, such as unemployment, poverty and social exclusion.

This study develops a novel approach to the exploitation of public and private sector data, based on a minimally exploited, for such purposes, AI technique (“all-relevant” feature selection), to support the design of public policies for addressing one of the most threatening disruptions that modern economies and societies repeatedly face, the economic crises.