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Central Bank Policy: Theory and Practice
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-751-6

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Article
Publication date: 6 February 2017

Syed Ali Raza and Mohd Zaini Abd Karim

This study aims to investigate the influence of systemic banking crises, currency crises and global financial crisis on the relationship between export and economic growth…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the influence of systemic banking crises, currency crises and global financial crisis on the relationship between export and economic growth in China by using the annual time series data from the period of 1972 to 2014.

Design/methodology/approach

The Johansen and Jeuuselius’ cointegration, auto regressive distributed lag bound testing cointegration, Gregory and Hansen’s cointegration and pooled ordinary least square techniques with error correction model have been used.

Findings

Results indicate the positive and significant effect of export of goods and services on economic growth in both long and short run, whereas the negative influence of systemic banking crises and currency crises over economic growth is observed. It is also concluded that the impact of export of goods and service on economic growth becomes insignificant in the presence of systemic banking crises and currency crises. The currency crises effect the influence of export on economic growth to a higher extent compared to systemic banking crises. Surprisingly, the export in the period of global financial crises has a positive and significant influence over economic growth in China, which conclude that the global financial crises did not drastically affect the export-growth nexus.

Originality/value

This paper makes a unique contribution to the literature with reference to China, being a pioneering attempt to investigate the effects of systemic banking crises and currency crises on the relationship of export and economic growth by using long-time series data and applying more rigorous econometric techniques.

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Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-4408

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Book part
Publication date: 25 July 2017

Alexander J. Field

At the time they occurred, the savings and loan insolvencies were considered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Contrary to what was then believed, and

Abstract

At the time they occurred, the savings and loan insolvencies were considered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Contrary to what was then believed, and in sharp contrast with 2007–2009, they in fact had little macroeconomic significance. Savings and Loan (S&L) remediation cost between 2 percent and 3 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), whereas the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and the conservatorships of Fannie and Freddie actually made money for the US Treasury. But the direct cost of government remediation is largely irrelevant in judging macro significance. What matters is the cumulative output loss associated with and plausibly caused by failing financial institutions. I estimate output losses for 1981–1984, 1991–1998, and 2007–2026 (the latter utilizing forecasts and projections along with actual data through 2015) and, for a final comparison, 1929–1941. The losses associated with 2007–2009 have been truly disastrous – in the same order of magnitude as the Great Depression. The S&L failures were, in contrast, inconsequential. Macroeconomists and policy makers should reserve the word crisis for financial disturbances that threaten substantial damage to the real economy, and continue efforts to identify in advance financial institutions which are systemically important (SIFI), and those which are not.

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Research in Economic History
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78743-120-1

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Book part
Publication date: 17 August 2011

Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay

Several developing economies witnessed a large number of systemic financial and currency crises since the 1980s that resulted in severe economic, social, and political…

Abstract

Several developing economies witnessed a large number of systemic financial and currency crises since the 1980s that resulted in severe economic, social, and political problems. The devastating impact of the 1982 and 1994–1995 Mexican crises, the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Russian crisis, and the ongoing financial crisis of 2008–2009 suggests that maintaining financial sector stability through reduction in vulnerability is highly crucial. The world is now witnessing an unprecedented systemic financial crisis originated from the USA in September 2008 together with a deep worldwide economic recession, particularly in developed countries of Europe and North America. This calls for devising and using on a regular basis an appropriate and effective monitoring and policy formulation system for detecting and addressing vulnerabilities leading to crisis. This chapter proposes a macroprudential/financial soundness monitoring, analysis, and remedial policy formulation system that can be used by most developing countries with or without crisis experience as well as with limited data. It also discusses a process for identifying and compiling a set of leading macroprudential/financial soundness indicators. An empirical illustration using Philippines data is presented. There is an urgent need for increased coordination, collaboration, and partnership among central banks, banking and financial market supervision agencies, and ministries of finance, economic, and planning for proper macroprudential monitoring. A high-level national financial stability committee under the auspices of the head of the state as well as a ‘‘regional financial stability board’’ needs to be established to complement and support the activities of an “international stability board.”

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Book part
Publication date: 1 March 2016

Carolina Herrera-Cano and Maria Alejandra Gonzalez-Perez

The purpose of this study is to show how socially responsible investment (SRI) could represent a powerful tool (trust recovering in political and economic institutions) in…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to show how socially responsible investment (SRI) could represent a powerful tool (trust recovering in political and economic institutions) in the case of failure or stagnation of economic and financial growth. The purpose of this chapter is to evaluate the current status of SRI in the context of the recent financial and economic crises. The main objective of this analysis is to consider the different benefits and challenges that this type of investment transactions bring into the international economy, and how SRI entrance could represent a major benefit not only for investors a different approach to corporate sustainability but as an important possibility in times of global economic and political crisis.

Methodology/approach

By analysing the literature about SRI, it has been developed a discussion regarding its benefits and obstacles in today’s financial scenario. By evaluating the performance of SRI in the context of the global financial crisis and the important opportunities regarding development, we would like to present the SRI as an important tool in today’s Post 2015 development agenda.

Findings

After revising the existent literature, it has been found that there are two important discussions in the field of SRI. The first one is related with the financial performance of SRI in contrast with the conventional investment funds while the second one is related with important considerations about the SRI in the context of the global financial crisis. After considering the arguments from the different authors, we address some conclusions regarding the importance of SRI in nowadays sustainable development discussion.

Practical implications

Due to failure in the traditional modus operandi of financial institutions and the recent global crises, investors, corporate executives and governments are increasingly paying more attention on the social, environmental and ethical behaviour of individual managers, shareholders and institutional investors. Therefore, it is being observed a shift and maturing process in SRI from an exclusive practice of few and specialised niche investment funds with minor financial implications and limited economic importance, to mainstream adopted by a growing number of institutional investors at the international level. This shift may influence companies and managers to adopt universal values and to assume a committed and strategic CSR agenda to respond to markets and societal expectations, in order to have guilt-free and sustainable investment and sustainable financial markets.

Originality/value

Within the context of the Post 2015 development agenda, the role of business and the private sector has become crucial for funding the new sustainable development goals (SDGs). This chapter not only discussed the relationship between SRI as an alternative to overcome financial crises and lack of sustainability in investment, but it does also conceptually demonstrates the potential of SRI to achieve the funding of the SDGs.

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Lessons from the Great Recession: At the Crossroads of Sustainability and Recovery
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-743-1

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Modelling the Riskiness in Country Risk Ratings
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-837-8

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Article
Publication date: 1 June 2010

Eleftherios Giovanis

The purpose of this paper is to examine two different approaches in the prediction of the economic recession periods in the US economy.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine two different approaches in the prediction of the economic recession periods in the US economy.

Design/methodology/approach

A logit regression was applied and the prediction performance in two out‐of‐sample periods, 2007‐2009 and 2010 was examined. On the other hand, feed‐forwards neural networks with Levenberg‐Marquardt error backpropagation algorithm were applied and then neural networks self‐organizing map (SOM) on the training outputs was estimated.

Findings

The paper presents the cluster results from SOM training in order to find the patterns of economic recessions and expansions. It is concluded that logit model forecasts the current financial crisis period at 75 percent accuracy, but logit model is useful as it provides a warning signal three quarters before the current financial crisis started officially. Also, it is estimated that the financial crisis, even if it reached its peak in 2009, the economic recession will be continued in 2010 too. Furthermore, the patterns generated by SOM neural networks show various possible versions with one common characteristic, that financial crisis is not over in 2009 and the economic recession will be continued in the USA even up to 2011‐2012, if government does not apply direct drastic measures.

Originality/value

Both logistic regression (logit) and SOMs procedures are useful. The first one is useful to examine the significance and the magnitude of each variable, while the second one is useful for clustering and identifying patterns in economic recessions and expansions.

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Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

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Book part
Publication date: 9 November 2009

Roberto Moro Visconti

The global recession has strongly affected the credibility of the international banking system, damaging also the real economy.Developing countries, not fully integrated…

Abstract

The global recession has strongly affected the credibility of the international banking system, damaging also the real economy.

Developing countries, not fully integrated with international markets, seem less affected and local microfinance institutions might also allow for a further shelter against recession, even if foreign support is slowing down and collection of international capital is harder and more expensive.

Intrinsic characteristics of microfinance, such as closeness to the borrowers, limited risk and exposure and little if any correlation with international markets have an anti-cyclical effect. In hard and confused times, it pays to be little, flexible and simple.

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Credit, Currency, or Derivatives: Instruments of Global Financial Stability Or crisis?
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-601-4

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Book part
Publication date: 11 June 2009

Pablo Gottret, Vaibhav Gupta, Susan Sparkes, Ajay Tandon, Valerie Moran and Peter Berman

Objective – This chapter assesses the extent to which previous economic and financial crises had a negative impact on health outcomes and health financing. In addition, we…

Abstract

Objective – This chapter assesses the extent to which previous economic and financial crises had a negative impact on health outcomes and health financing. In addition, we review evidence related to the effectiveness of different policy measures undertaken in past crises to protect access to health services, especially for the poor and vulnerable. The current global crisis is unique both in terms of its scale and origins. Unlike most previous instances, the current crisis has its origins in developed countries, initially the United States, before it spread to middle- and lower-income countries. The current crisis is now affecting almost all countries at all levels of income. This chapter addresses several key questions aimed at helping inform possible policy responses to the current crisis from the perspective of the health sector: What is the nature of the current crisis and in what ways does it differ from previous experiences? What are some of the key lessons from previous crises? How have governments responded previously to protect health from such macroeconomic shocks? How can we improve the likelihood of positive action today?

Methodology/approach – The chapter reviews the literature on the impact of financial crises on health outcomes and health expenditures and on the effectiveness of past policy efforts to protect human development during periods of economic downturn. It also presents analysis of household surveys and health expenditure data to track health seeking behavior and out-of-pocket expenditures by households during times of financial crisis.

Findings – Evidence from previous crises indicates that health-related impacts during economic downturns can occur through various channels. The impact in households experiencing reductions in employment and income could be manifest in terms of poorer nutritional outcomes and lower levels of utilization of health care when needed. Households may become impoverished, reduce needed health services, and experience reductions in consumption as a result of health shocks occurring during a time when their economic vulnerability has increased. Women, children, the poor, and informal sector workers are likely to be most at risk of experiencing negative health-related consequences in a crisis. Real government spending per capita on health care could decline due to reduced revenues, currency devaluations, and potential reductions in external aid flows. Low-income countries with weak fiscal positions are likely to be the most vulnerable.

Implications for policy – Past crises can inform policy-making aimed at protecting health outcomes and reducing financial risk from health shocks. Evidence from previous crises indicates that broad-brush strategies that maintained overall levels of government health spending tended not to be successful, failing to protect access to quality health services especially for the poor. It is particularly vital to ensure access to essential health commodities, which in many low-income countries are imported, in the face of weakening exchange rates. Focused efforts to sustain the supply of lower-level basic services, combined with targeted demand-side approaches like conditional cash transfers may be more effective than broader sectoral approaches. Low-income countries may need specific short-term measures to ensure that health outcomes do not suffer.

Details

Innovations in Health System Finance in Developing and Transitional Economies
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84855-664-5

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Article
Publication date: 25 April 2019

Nargiza Alymkulova and Junus Ganiev

The global financial crisis hit the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic by the third wave of its transmission in early 2009. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact…

Abstract

Purpose

The global financial crisis hit the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic by the third wave of its transmission in early 2009. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the global financial economic crisis on the transition economy of the Kyrgyz Republic. As there is a low level of the Kyrgyz Republic’s integration into the global financial and economic processes, it is obvious that channels of transmissions are different.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical model is the vector autoregression approach. The quarterly data from 2005 to 2013 of the remittances from abroad, trade volumes, exchange rates, credits, deposits and liquidity of the banking system, gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment (FDI) were used in the empirical analysis.

Findings

The authors found a significant positive relation between transmission channels such as remittances flow, banking sector, international trade and GDP within the first six months. Thus, a decline in the aforementioned variables has a significant affirmative effect on the country’s GDP. Notwithstanding, the exchange-rate channel adversely influences GDP. Thereby, the depreciation of the national currency leads to an increase in GDP.

Originality/value

The study findings allow the Kyrgyz policymakers to foresee the global crisis transmission through the primary channels of transmission mechanism. Nevertheless, a decrease of the deposit level by 1 per cent leads to 2.91 per cent decline in FDI inflows. On the contrary, an increase of the exchange rate by 1 per cent leads to 1.54 per cent decrease in imports.

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