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Article
Publication date: 10 August 2010

Sun Jingchun, Lv Ding and Wu Fan

The purpose of this paper is to model the trend of natural gas supply and demand in China in different circumstances from 1990 to 2050.

1046

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to model the trend of natural gas supply and demand in China in different circumstances from 1990 to 2050.

Design/methodology/approach

The related factors were selected from references and classified into three categories such as endogenous, exogenous, and excluded factors. The three sub‐models of supply, demand and their interconnection were built and integrated. The impacts of natural gas resources, the investment of gas industry and the energy structure over natural gas supply and demand were analyzed based on scenario analysis.

Findings

The impact of energy structure in China is more evident compared to natural gas resources and the investment level.

Research limitations/implications

Import and transportation of natural gas will have growing impacts on the supply and demand in China when the model is applied.

Practical implications

A very useful method to analyze the equilibrium of natural gas supply and demand.

Originality/value

The paper presents a new prediction model of natural gas supply and demand in system dynamics. The paper is aimed at the researchers and decision makers in energy industries, especially in the fields of energy prices.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 39 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 13 May 2019

Rosaria Rita Canale and Rajmund Mirdala

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II…

Abstract

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II. Globalization, liberalization, integration, and transition processes generally shaped the crucial milestones of the macroeconomic development and substantial features of economic policy and its framework in Europe. Policy-driven changes together with variety of exogenous shocks significantly affected the key features of macroeconomic environment on the European continent that fashioned the framework and design of monetary policies.

This chapter examines the key basis of the central bank’s monetary policy on its way to pursue and preserve the internal and external stability of the purchasing power of money. Substantial elements of the monetary policy like objectives and strategies are not only generally introduced but also critically discussed according to their accuracy, suitability, and reliability in the changing macroeconomic conditions. Brief overview of the Eurozone common monetary policy milestones and the past Eastern bloc countries’ experience with a variety of exchange rate regimes provides interesting empirical evidence on origins and implications of vital changes in the monetary policy conduction in Europe and the Eurozone.

Details

Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: Theoretical Concepts and Empirical Evidence
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78743-793-7

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 November 2023

Zhiying Wang and Hongmei Jia

Forecasting demand of emergency supplies under major epidemics plays a vital role in improving rescue efficiency. Few studies have combined intuitionistic fuzzy set with…

Abstract

Purpose

Forecasting demand of emergency supplies under major epidemics plays a vital role in improving rescue efficiency. Few studies have combined intuitionistic fuzzy set with grey-Markov method and applied it to the prediction of emergency supplies demand. Therefore, this article aims to establish a novel method for emergency supplies demand forecasting under major epidemics.

Design/methodology/approach

Emergency supplies demand is correlated with the number of infected cases in need of relief services. First, a novel method called the Intuitionistic Fuzzy TPGM(1,1)-Markov Method (IFTPGMM) is proposed, and it is utilized for the purpose of forecasting the number of people. Then, the prediction of demand for emergency supplies is calculated using a method based on the safety inventory theory, according to numbers predicted by IFTPGMM. Finally, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted between IFTPGMM and four other methods.

Findings

The results show that IFTPGMM demonstrates superior predictive performance compared to four other methods. The integration of the grey method and intuitionistic fuzzy set has been shown to effectively handle uncertain information and enhance the accuracy of predictions.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this article is to propose a novel method for emergency supplies demand forecasting under major epidemics. The benefits of utilizing the grey method for handling small sample sizes and intuitionistic fuzzy set for handling uncertain information are considered in this proposed method. This method not only enhances existing grey method but also expands the methodologies used for forecasting demand for emergency supplies.

Highlights (for review)

  1. An intuitionistic fuzzy TPGM(1,1)-Markov method (IFTPGMM) is proposed.

  2. The safety inventory theory is combined with IFTPGMM to construct a prediction method.

  3. Asymptomatic infected cases are taken to forecast the demand for emergency supplies.

An intuitionistic fuzzy TPGM(1,1)-Markov method (IFTPGMM) is proposed.

The safety inventory theory is combined with IFTPGMM to construct a prediction method.

Asymptomatic infected cases are taken to forecast the demand for emergency supplies.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 20 October 2015

Mohammad Shamsuddoha

Contemporary literature reveals that, to date, the poultry livestock sector has not received sufficient research attention. This particular industry suffers from unstructured…

Abstract

Contemporary literature reveals that, to date, the poultry livestock sector has not received sufficient research attention. This particular industry suffers from unstructured supply chain practices, lack of awareness of the implications of the sustainability concept and failure to recycle poultry wastes. The current research thus attempts to develop an integrated supply chain model in the context of poultry industry in Bangladesh. The study considers both sustainability and supply chain issues in order to incorporate them in the poultry supply chain. By placing the forward and reverse supply chains in a single framework, existing problems can be resolved to gain economic, social and environmental benefits, which will be more sustainable than the present practices.

The theoretical underpinning of this research is ‘sustainability’ and the ‘supply chain processes’ in order to examine possible improvements in the poultry production process along with waste management. The research adopts the positivist paradigm and ‘design science’ methods with the support of system dynamics (SD) and the case study methods. Initially, a mental model is developed followed by the causal loop diagram based on in-depth interviews, focus group discussions and observation techniques. The causal model helps to understand the linkages between the associated variables for each issue. Finally, the causal loop diagram is transformed into a stock and flow (quantitative) model, which is a prerequisite for SD-based simulation modelling. A decision support system (DSS) is then developed to analyse the complex decision-making process along the supply chains.

The findings reveal that integration of the supply chain can bring economic, social and environmental sustainability along with a structured production process. It is also observed that the poultry industry can apply the model outcomes in the real-life practices with minor adjustments. This present research has both theoretical and practical implications. The proposed model’s unique characteristics in mitigating the existing problems are supported by the sustainability and supply chain theories. As for practical implications, the poultry industry in Bangladesh can follow the proposed supply chain structure (as par the research model) and test various policies via simulation prior to its application. Positive outcomes of the simulation study may provide enough confidence to implement the desired changes within the industry and their supply chain networks.

Details

Sustaining Competitive Advantage Via Business Intelligence, Knowledge Management, and System Dynamics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-707-3

Keywords

Abstract

Details

The Development of Open Government Data
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80262-315-4

Book part
Publication date: 16 December 2015

Won W. Koo and Richard Taylor

This chapter examines whether the supply of food is large enough to feed an increasing world population for the 2012–2050 period. Special attention is given to the implications of…

Abstract

Purpose

This chapter examines whether the supply of food is large enough to feed an increasing world population for the 2012–2050 period. Special attention is given to the implications of bioenergy production on global and regional food security.

Methodology/approach

For this analysis, a global food security simulation model was developed to determine if the global and regional supply of food, in terms of calories, is large enough to meet the demand and also to estimate the impact on food prices.

Findings

This chapter found that the global supply of food in terms of calories is insufficient to satisfy food demand in 2050, with food shortages especially significant in Africa.

Practical implications

The estimated shortage of food may result in significant food-price inflation by 2050.

Details

Food Security in an Uncertain World
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-213-9

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 25 February 2016

Elena Crivellaro

While there has been intense debate in the empirical literature over the evolution of the college wage premium in the United States, its evolution in Europe has received little…

Abstract

While there has been intense debate in the empirical literature over the evolution of the college wage premium in the United States, its evolution in Europe has received little attention. This paper investigates the causes of the evolution of the college wage premium in 12 European countries from 1994 to 2009, assessing the relevance of the supply factor as a determinant of the college wage premium. I use cross-country variation in relative supply, demand, and labour market institutions to examine their effects on the trend in wage inequality. I address possible concerns of endogeneity of the relative supply using an IV strategy exploiting the differential legislations of university autonomy and their variations over time. Results show that the strong increase in the relative supply that European countries have experienced has decreased the college wage premium. The most relevant institution is the minimun wage, which significantly decreases college wage premium.

Details

Inequality: Causes and Consequences
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-810-0

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Explaining Unemployment: Econometric Models for the Netherlands
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-847-6

Book part
Publication date: 1 May 2023

Jia Wang and Wei-Chiao Huang

Due to greater returns to high skill and desirable amenities, high-skilled workers are increasingly agglomerating in metropolitan areas and form path dependence. This chapter…

Abstract

Due to greater returns to high skill and desirable amenities, high-skilled workers are increasingly agglomerating in metropolitan areas and form path dependence. This chapter explores whether the land supply policy of China constraining big cities' urban construction land quota strengthens the spatial divergence of human capital. Using city-level land supply data, population census data, and land transaction micro data, we find that the higher the degree of a city's land supply lagging behind land demand, the greater the enlargement effect of the initial share of population with college degrees on the increase in share of population with college degrees. Further research reveals that the main mechanism causing this phenomenon is the rapidly rising housing prices hindering low-skill labor flows to big cities.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-401-7

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 24 April 2023

Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou

Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact on the macro economy. As this literature has expanded…

Abstract

Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact on the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between alternative oil market models, let alone the basis for the sometimes divergent conclusions reached in the literature. The purpose of this survey is to provide a guide to this literature. Our focus is on the econometric foundations of the analysis of oil market models with special attention to the identifying assumptions and methods of inference.

Details

Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-212-4

Keywords

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