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Analyses how the status of balance of payments follows se\ill\ fulfilling expectations of currency devaluation. It is found that before a currency devaluation, whether the economy w\ill\ experience a balance‐of‐payments surplus or deficit crucial depends on the degree of capital mobility.

The purpose of this paper is to propose predictive models of speculative revaluation attacks, which would facilitate currency risk hedging in emerging and developed countries.

The purpose of this paper is achieved using the methodology of multiple triangulation. Paper combines different theoretical perspectives (three generations of speculative attack models), two sources of data (emerging countries and developed countries) and three methods (logit regression, probit regression and artificial neural networks, ANN) for identification of leading indicators and forecasting of speculative attacks. Combination of multiple observations (data), underlying theories and methods allowed achieving least biased results.

A list of leading indicators of speculative revaluation attacks was generated based on previous researches and three generations of speculative attacks' models. Qualitative and quantitative differences of speculative revaluation attacks in emerging and developed countries were identified. The decision matrix of currency risk hedging in the context of speculative devaluation and revaluation attacks was proposed.

Although the sample of this researcher includes a wide range of countries (65 in total), their separation into developed and emerging countries is arbitrary (in the course of 35 years some countries have changed the status from emerging towards developed). The initial list of leading indicators is limited, includes mostly economic variables. It could be improved by encompassing political variables, credit ratings, consumer and business confidence indices.

Developed predictive models of speculative revaluation attacks may significantly reduce important element of risk – uncertainty – and, consequently, the cost of financial hedging.

This paper is one of the first public attempts to apply alternative methodology of ANN for forecasting speculative attacks. The results showed that latter method is more accurate than probit and logit regressions. Also, to the author's best knowledge, this is a first public attempt to separately analyse the phenomenon of speculative revaluation attacks.

The demand for money is an important function of stabilization policies where such policies depend on the ability to manipulate the size of money supply in order to insulate real output from monetary disturbances. This paper investigates whether foreign money in Egypt should be included in transactions oriented measures of money supply. Variance decompositions analysis of demand functions for domestic money reveals that deviation of the expected rate of return on foreign money from that on domestic money is more influential than expected depreciation in accounting for quarterly forecast error variance in domestic real balances. This result suggests that portfolio rather than transactions considerations is the dominant factor behind holding foreign money in Egypt. The main policy implication contained in these results implies that foreign money should not be included in transactions oriented measures of money supply that are used as targets when implementing a monetary policy.

The aim of this paper is to determine the impact of the structural adjustment policies on library and information services in the University of Malawi Libraries.

A case study methodology was adopted, and data – budget documents and various reports and technical papers – were collected.

Findings show that libraries in this study were affected by the structural adjustment reforms. Budgets of the libraries increased but were affected by currency devaluations, unavailability of foreign exchange to pay for subscriptions and purchase books and this had negatively impacted on the provision of library and information services.

The study looks at implications of the structural adjustment policies in the five libraries in the University of Malawi, namely the Bunda College, Chancellor College, College of Medicine, Kamuzu College of Nursing and the Polytechnic only. However the results give a general picture of both academic and public libraries in Malawi.

Libraries are encouraged to consider adopting UNESCO coupons to solve foreign exchange shortages for software and journal subscriptions as well as engage international publishers with local shops to circumvent paying for library purchases in foreign currency. Libraries are also encouraged to use the Malawi Library and Information Consortium (MALICO) for bargaining prices against ever escalating journal and book prices.

The paper explores the impact of the structural adjustment polices in Malawi.

In the context of debate on competitive devaluation and trade imbalances, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of exchange rate misalignment as a determinant of trade imbalances in selected major trade surplus (Germany, China, Japan, Russia and KSA) and major trade deficit countries (USA, UK, France, India and Turkey).

The authors used a structural vector auto-regressive model on data from ten countries with the highest trade deficit and surplus. The period of analysis is from 2000 Q1 to 2016 Q1.

The key findings suggest that although exchange rate misalignment from equilibrium may have some implications for the current account balance for surplus and deficit countries, the effects observed were rather very mild and transitory. There was a heterogeneity in the response of the current account position to exchange rate misalignment in each country, concomitantly; the exchange rate misalignment shall not be seen as the sole responsible factor in the debate on global trade imbalances.

The research has profound implications in terms of exploring the notion of competitive devaluation and exchange rate misalignment as a cause of major global trade imbalances.

This study has important practical implications for the trade policy of major economies in the world. These are twofold. First, this study has analysed and reported on the degree of misalignment of exchange from its equilibrium values in the major trade surplus and deficit countries. Second, it has investigated the implications of any misalignment for the trade balance or respective economies.

There are important social implications as the notion of competitive devaluation and exchange rate–trade balance nexus has been heavily politicised. This study provides an empirical insight and an answer to these claims which have social and political implications.

There is a significant element of originality and contribution to the existing body of knowledge on the subject. In the context of debate on competitive devaluation this is the first study which has investigated whether the exchange rate has been misaligned from its equilibrium values (competitive devaluation) and whether there is some nexus between the real exchange rate misalignment and trade imbalances in under-analysis economies.

Theory suggests that as long as a country runs a balanced budget regime, there is no linkage between fiscal variables and the interest rates. In the case of fiscal expansion that is not sufficiently covered by government revenues, however, the government has two options to finance its deficit: printing money or additional borrowing. Both options lead to an increase in the risk premia on government bonds. One strand of literature focuses on a currency crisis that emerges as a necessary outcome in light of contradictions between fixed exchange rate, and fiscal and financial fundamentals. If government bonds are denominated in domestic currency, the government can reduce their real value by higher inflation or by devaluation of the national currency. In order to bear this risk foreign investors require a currency risk premium. Governments can eliminate the risk of currency devaluation by issuing bonds denominated in foreign currencies, but the default risk remains and it depends on public finances. Another strand of the literature looks at the relation between fiscal variables and government bond yields in the framework of portfolio balance model.

Although economic theory generally does not support government intervention in international trade, casual observation shows that many developing countries adopt certain trade policies to promote their exports. The objective of this paper is to answer the question that whether developing countries can benefit from export promotion.

This paper considers a developing country which has to import new technology from the world market to improve its productivity. If it has certain economic rigidities, the country is short of foreign exchange and domestic firms cannot import an adequate amount of new technology. Even if there is no rigidity, domestic firms may not have sufficient incentive to invest in new technology. Therefore, the government can step in to subsidize exports. Through an analytical model, this paper investigates in what conditions the measures of export promotion can stimulate production and employment, and improve efficiency and social welfare.

This paper analyzes two effects of export promotion: raising the incentive of capital investment and reducing capital goods shortage caused by foreign exchange constraint. These effects might be the economic rationale for developing country governments to promote exports. It is found that export promotion can definitely raise employment and productivity, but whether these measures can stimulate the supply to the domestic market and improve domestic welfare depends on the sufficient and necessary condition given in the paper.

Establishes an analytical model to investigate in what conditions the measures of export promotion such as export subsidies and domestic currency devaluation can stimulate production and employment, and can improve efficiency and social welfare.

Macroeconomics: fixed exchange rate regime, external and internal devaluation, international competitiveness, comparison to ongoing eurozone periphery problems.

The main audience for this case is undergraduate students in economics and business or graduate students in business or political science related studies. More particularly, the case suits a class on applied macroeconomics or general economic policy.

The case investigates economic development in Latvia since it gained independence, the key focus is overheating in 2004-2007 and consequential extraordinary economic crisis of 2008-2009. This case gives a great starting point to discuss ongoing problems in peripheral eurozone (PIGS) in terms of internal versus external devaluation.

Students are expected to learn the differences between external and internal devaluation as well as a country's international competitiveness factors. Also, class discussion of similarities and differences between Latvia and PIGS should make students more aware of two types of devaluation.

Teaching notes are available. Please consult your librarian for access.

Operating exposure to foreign exchange risk and exchange rate pass-through are investigated in the context of a Cournot model of equilibrium in a homogeneous product market, i.e. an industry populated by N firms, which compete exclusively on the basis of quantities produced/marketed and where each firm optimizes its decision based on expectations regarding the actions of its rivals that in fact eventuate. Whereas one firm sources its product domestically, the remaining N−1 firms source their product in a foreign country. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

By invoking two simplifying assumptions, namely, constant marginal cost functions and a linear inverted demand curve, and then deriving the Cournot equilibrium, this paper obtains clear implications regarding the effect of a currency devaluation on the competitive positions of the industry’s N constituent firms as well as the pass-through effect on the industry price.

The N−1 firms that source the homogeneous product from a foreign country, which experiences a devaluation, gain, while the single competing firm that sources domestically loses, both market share and profit. Formulas are derived which elucidate this intuitive result. The extent of exchange rate pass-through on the resulting equilibrium price is gauged to be incomplete, consistent with extant empirical evidence. As the number of firms increases, the extent of exchange rate pass-through likewise increases, approaching a limiting situation of complete pass-through.

This paper is the first to examine the issues of exchange rate operating exposure and pass-through in the context of a Cournot model of competition, under the indicated two simplifying assumptions.

The paper provides new evidence for Bitcoin’s safe-haven property by examining the relationship between currency price, return and Bitcoin trading volume.

A unique dataset from a person-to-person (p2p) exchange is used to investigate association between Bitcoin trading volume and currency prices. Currency returns are used to identify local economic crises, the 8 crisis affected currencies are Venezuela Bolivar (VES), Iranian Rial (IRR), Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH), Argentine Peso (ARS), Egyptian Pound (EGP), Nigerian Naira (NGN), Turkish Lira (TRY) and Kazakhstani Tenge (KZT).

The paper demonstrates that local economic crises are positively associated with increased Bitcoin trading. There is a negative association between trading volume and currency value (and return), suggesting low currency price and currency depreciation are accompanied with increased Bitcoin trading. The results not only hold for the crisis affected currencies but also currencies of advanced economies. Granger causality test also reinforces the negative association results.

The finding indicates some forms of flight-to-safety have occurred during local market crises when capital flight from domestic markets to Bitcoin, strengthening Bitcoin’s hedging asset status. However, total global trading volume declines after the start of the COVID pandemic, suggesting that Bitcoin is still regarded as a speculative asset. Overall, the findings show that Bitcoin is a hedging asset to protect against local currency depreciation, but not a safe-haven asset for the global crisis.