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Abstract

Details

Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-570-8

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 1 January 2001

Abstract

Details

Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy: A Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-260-4

Abstract

Details

Handbook of Transport Geography and Spatial Systems
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-615-83253-8

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 April 2023

Taoyuan Wei and Asbjørn Aaheim

This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation.

2173

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation.

Design/methodology/approach

A systematic review is conducted to select, classify and analyze relevant studies from two databases of Web of Science and Scopus.

Findings

Totally, 170 articles based on selected keywords were found from both databases, where 56 articles were duplicates. The authors further excluded 17 articles owing to preliminary exclusion criteria. Hence, 97 papers were selected for full-text review and more detailed assessment. Only a few of the studies explicitly have addressed the role of autonomous adaptation embodied in the CGE models. Over one-third of the studies have focused on planned adaptation without explicitly mentioning autonomous adaptation. Agriculture was the most addressed sector, and country-level models are the most adopted. Only one article has focused on South America.

Research limitations/implications

The review suggests that autonomous adaptation embodied in CGE models was not well addressed in the literature. As the limited studies have shown that autonomous adaptation can dramatically mitigate direct climate change impacts, further studies are needed to examine the importance of the autonomous adaptation for better understanding of climate change impacts. Furthermore, CGE models can provide a joint assessment considering both mitigation and adaptation strategies and management measures as such models have also been widely used to address effects of mitigation measures in the literature.

Originality/value

The studies on climate change adaptation based on CGE models have been systematically reviewed, and state-of-the-art knowledge and research gaps have been identified.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 15 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 April 2023

Syed Shoyeb Hossain, Yongwei Cui, Huang Delin and Xinyuan Zhang

Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most…

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Abstract

Purpose

Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by −3.25% and −3.70%, respectively, and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline.

Findings

The findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range of −3.1% to −3.6% under the high climate scenario (higher temperatures and lower yields). A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household income falls in all categories, although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of −3.1% to −3.4%. On the other hand, consumption of commodities will fall by −0.11% to −0.13%, according to the findings. Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by −0.059% and −0.098% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.

Practical implications

As agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger, poverty, changing food environment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care environment. Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh Government.

Originality/value

The examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the evidence generated here can provide important information to policymakers and guide government policies that contribute to national development and the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 15 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 1994

Noel D. Uri and Roy Boyd

Examines the impact of the sugar tariff‐rate import quota programme onthe United States economy. Uses a computable general equilibrium modelcomposed of 14 producing sectors, 14…

2214

Abstract

Examines the impact of the sugar tariff‐rate import quota programme on the United States economy. Uses a computable general equilibrium model composed of 14 producing sectors, 14 consuming sectors, six household categories classified by fincome, and a government. Examines the effects of abolishing the tariff‐rate import quota on sugar prices and quantities. Suggests that a complete elimination of the sugar programme would result in lower output by all producing sectors (by about $2.85 billion) but, for all producing sectors besides the agriculture programme crops, crude oil, and petroleum refining sectors, output would actually increase (by about $2.98 billion). There would also be an increase in the consumption of goods and services (by about $197 million), and an increase in welfare (by about $121 million). The government would realize a reduction in revenue of about $15 million. When subjected to a sensitivity analysis, the study′s results are reasonably robust with regard to the assumption of the value of the own‐price elasticity of demand for sugar – i.e., while the model′s equilibrium values do vary in response to different assumptions of the values of this elasticity, the fluctuations are not so enormous as to suggest that the model is unrealistically sensitive to these parameters.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 21 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 June 2021

Elizabeth Louisa Roos and Philip David Adams

This paper aims to provide a quantitative assessment of the broad economic effects of tax policy reform in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide a quantitative assessment of the broad economic effects of tax policy reform in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Design/methodology/approach

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the KSA, three simulations are run. The first simulation is the baseline simulation, which generates growth paths of the Saudi economy in the absence of tax reform. In developing the baseline simulation, this study incorporates forecasts from the International Monetary Fund. The remaining simulations are policy simulations. A policy simulation deviates from the baseline simulation in response to a policy change. In the first policy simulation, this study introduces a value-added tax (VAT) that generates SAR 35bn. This study assumes budget neutrality with the additional tax revenue transferred to households via a lump sum payment. In the second policy simulation, this study introduces a corporate income tax that generates SAR 35bn. This study then calculates and compares the distortion these taxes introduce into the economy.

Findings

This study finds that although the introduction of new taxes increases government tax revenue, markets are distorted lowering efficiency and production. An introduction of VAT increases the cost of consumption relative to the cost of production. As a consequence, the real cost of labour increases lowering employment in the short run. Employment moves to the baseline, as wages adjust capital and real gross domestic product (GDP) is below base throughout the simulation period. The second simulation is an increase in the corporate tax rate with lowers the post-tax rates of return investors receive. This simulation shows that the negative impact on investment, capital and GDP is larger with the introduction of a corporate tax than with the VAT.

Research limitations/implications

Literature focusing on tax policy reform in the Gulf Cooperation Council and, specifically, Saudi Arabia is limited. This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the following: understanding the impact and mechanisms through which changes in taxation impact the economy more generally; understanding the potential harm caused to allocative efficiency and production due to taxes; and ways in which fiscal reform might complement other reforms such as efforts to diversify the economy, labour market and energy price reforms. This improves the information base available to policymakers charged with designing an optimal tax system that meets all future requirements of a country such as the KSA.

Originality/value

The authors developed and applied a CGE model for the KSA to analyse the impact of VAT and corporate tax on the Saudi economy. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no recent CGE models for Saudi Arabia that have been used for tax policy or quantifying the potential harm to the economy when new taxes are introduced.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 April 2012

Abdykappar Ashimov, Bahyt Sultanov, Zheksenbek Adilov, Yuriy Borovskiy, Nikolay Borovskiy and Askar Ashimov

The purpose of this paper is to present some results of the development of parametrical regulation theory elements for computable general equilibrium models (CGE models), taking…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present some results of the development of parametrical regulation theory elements for computable general equilibrium models (CGE models), taking into consideration their peculiarities.

Design/methodology/approach

Theoretical results have been obtained by means of applying geometrical methods for variational problems and methods of the theory of discrete dynamic systems. These results have been used for solving concrete practical problems.

Findings

The authors proved a statement on the existence of solution for variational calculus problem on the choice of the optimal laws of parametrical regulation within the given finite set of algorithms for discrete dynamic systems. A statement has been proved on sufficient conditions for the existence of an extremal's bifurcation point of variational calculus problem on the choice of the optimum laws of parametrical regulation within the given finite set of algorithms for discrete dynamic systems. Optimal laws of parametrical regulation (on the level of one and two parameters) of economic system evolution on the basis of the examined mathematical model have been defined. The bifurcation line was constructed for the given area of uncontrolled parameter values.

Practical implications

The research results can be applied for the choice and realization of an effective state budget and tax policy.

Originality/value

The paper elaborates the elements of parametrical regulation theory of economic system development on the basis of CGE models and shows the effectiveness of parametrical regulation theory application on the example of one CGE model.

Article
Publication date: 14 June 2018

Jae-whak Roh and Hyunjae Kim

During the Paris Convention, Korean Government made commitment to curb carbon emission by 37 percent by the year of 2030. Since then there has been constant debate, both in media…

Abstract

Purpose

During the Paris Convention, Korean Government made commitment to curb carbon emission by 37 percent by the year of 2030. Since then there has been constant debate, both in media and academia, as to whether attempts to reduce carbon emission would spell the concomitant economic slowdown. The purpose of this paper is to build a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to see the effects of emission decrease on Korea economy.

Design/methodology/approach

To answer the above question, we build a comprehensive framework to gauge the economic impact of Paris Convention through the lens of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model using Armington and Melitz model.

Findings

Contrary to conventional wisdom, Korea’s economic performance in terms of welfare remains robust when the carbon emission is reduced. Broadly speaking, Korea’s welfare does not contract significantly in part due to expansion at the export market. For instance, the energy intensive industry (EIT) is affected most directly from the Paris Convention commitment and yet it experiences growth in export. On the contrary, the authors find that the general economic impact on Korea’s output is negative. The additional experiment using Melitz model shows that as the carbon reduction is enforced, both the number and the average productivity of the exporting firms increase in the EIT sector, which the authors refer in the paper as the “Melitz Effect.”

Practical implications

This paper shows that what can be occurred in Korean industries by emission decrease commitment.

Social implications

One byproduct from restricting carbon emission is the surge in the electricity price. This is due to the fact that industries have to shift away from traditional fuels such as oil to electricity for energy. Therefore the authors propose that industrial policies aimed at balancing electricity price should accompany the plan to reduce carbon emission.

Originality/value

For Korean economy, the effects of emission reduction is researched using Armington and Melitz model at the same time. Especially, this is the first research case using the Melitz model in this Korean topic.

Details

Journal of Korea Trade, vol. 22 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-828X

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 June 2022

Roberto Roson and Camille Van der Vorst

This survey presents the recent and rapidly expanding literature, which analyses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, by means of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE…

Abstract

This survey presents the recent and rapidly expanding literature, which analyses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, by means of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling. It does so not only by contrasting and assessing the different methodological approaches, and the key findings of the simulation exercises, but also by putting the various contributions in a historical perspective. This is necessary because each CGE-based study should be evaluated while keeping in mind when it was realised, since questions, priorities, expectations have been constantly changing during the spreading of the pandemic.

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