Search results

In order to develop our understanding of valuation models and so extend this to encompass the important area of performance measurement and its interpretation, it is essential to have a framework which will enable such developments to take place. This paper presents a theoretical model based on a certainty equivalent approach which enables the market risk of individual properties and portfolios to be assessed on an expectations basis. The data requirements for using the model are not onerous and with simple extensions it can be adapted to cope with changes in risk that occur when variations in the lease structure are anticipated. Understanding the influence of systematic or market risk is essential if our understanding of valuation is to improve. Systematic risk is the single most important factor which determines the premium which should be allowed to compensate for risk. This aspect has been largely ignored in the property literature with the result that risk premium figures are frequently assumed to be constant across all sectors and properties. This paper derives a model which attempts to overcome some of these problems. Due to data limitations empirical tests of the model cannot be regarded as conclusive. However, those tests that have been carried out suggest that the model could be used for estimating the required rate of return of both sectors and individual properties. It also has considerable potential in estimating growth expectations for groups of properties and can thus be used in the decision‐making process. Much, however, remains to be done.

Property investment risk is traditionally accounted for by valuers in a risk‐adjusted discount rate approach, although this term, popular in mainstream finance, is rarely used. This paper shows that RADR is but one of several risk adjustment techniques that may be employed within an explicit cash flow framework. It explains how a certainty equivalent technique may be used in an objective manner by use of standard deviation analysis, and develops a new technique for use in the UK prime market known as the sliced income approach. The paper goes further by setting risk adjustment (deterministic) techniques within the wider context of risk analysis and compares a simple probabilistic approach and sensitivity analysis with these techniques for use in property investment appraisal. A case study is employed in illustrations.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate farmers’ risk aversion using the equally likely certainty equivalent approach and the negative exponential utility function to identify risk preference classification.

Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function is applied to determine the risk efficient farming systems for the farmers in central and north-east regions of Thailand.

The study results showed that maize followed by sorghum is the most risk efficient farming system for the extremely risk averse rain-fed farmers in the central region of Thailand. Intensive planting of wet rice and dry rice cultivation is preferred by the extremely risk averse central region irrigated farmers. Wet rice and cassava together with raising small herd of cattle is the most economically viable farming system for the extremely risk averse rain-fed farmers in the north-east region, while two rice crops with raising cattle is preferred by the extremely risk averse north-east irrigated farmers of Thailand.

The findings of this study provide useful information to reinforce the empirical basis for risk analysis for Thai farmers. The results will provide more accurate information regarding risk at the farm level to policy makers and researchers.

Despite many troublesome aspects in its use, the risk-adjusted discount rate has survived and continues to be extensively used by practitioners. While the appropriate discount rate for projects as risky as the current business operations of the firm can be estimated relatively easily as the firm’s cost of capital, no clear guideline is available for projects with a higher risk profile. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate an appropriate risk addendum for such risky projects.

Extending the framework developed by Davies et al. (2012), the perceived risk in a project is captured by focussing on a downside case scenario and estimating its probability and severity. An expression is then developed for the risk addendum (as an addendum to the firm’s cost of capital) that can be used to find the value of a risky project.

The risk addendum is found to depend only on the product of the probability (p) and the severity (d) of the downside case scenario and not on either of them individually It was also found that the risk addendum rises fast for projects with shorter lives and so is the highest for risky projects with short lives.

Managers can use the expression derived to evaluate an appropriate risk addendum for risky projects.

The paper suggests a simple framework to quantify the risk involved in a project and to evaluate an appropriate risk addendum.

Risk capital is an important input for management functions. Capital structure decisions, capital budgeting, and ex post performance measurement require different measures of risk capital. While it has become common to estimate risk capital using VaR models, it is not clear that VaR‐based capital estimates are optimal for applications to management functions (e.g. risk management, capital budgeting, performance measurement, or regulation). This article considers three typical problems that require an estimate of credit risk capital: an optimal equity capital allocation; an optimal capital allocation for capital budgeting decisions; and an optimal capital allocation to remove moral hazard incentives from a compensation contract based on ex post performance. The optimal credit risk capital allocation is different for each problem and is never consistent with a credit VaR estimate of unexpected loss. The results demonstrate that the optimal risk capital allocation depends on the objective.

The purpose of this study is to examine the capital budgeting strategies that are used by foreign subsidiaries of U.S.‐based multinational enterprises. While the results indicated a preference for sophisticated capital budgeting techniques as the primary method of analysis, the actual use of sophisticated capital budgeting techniques by foreign managers may not be as widespread as expected by financial theorists. Although it was found that certain environmental and company‐specific factors influenced the level of sophistication of capital budgeting practices used by U.S. foreign subsidiaries, the associations were small and had only minor explanatory significance. The results showed that foreign subsidiaries exposed to high levels of political and financial risk tended to use sophisticated capital budgeting strategies. Subsidiaries characterized by high levels of financial leverage and high cost of capital requirements also employed advanced capital budgeting strategies. Multinational enterprises (MNEs) have many options available to them in terms of how they manage their foreign subsidiaries. Traditionally, most major policy decisions were made at the parent firm's headquarter office while foreign subsidiaries had few opportunities to influence major corporate decisions. Today, more companies are using a flexible approach which involves setting strategic goals at the home office and allowing local managers to implement their own specific policies. An important question in this study involved determining how effective local foreign managers were in implementing their capital budgeting processes. As U.S.‐based MNEs continue to expand their operations abroad, there is an increased need to examine which financial decision models are actually used by subsidiary managers to deal with the increased complexity of investing in foreign countries. Unlike traditional capital budgeting analysis, international analysis is a considerably more complex process. These complexities occur for a number of reasons including complicated cash flows estimates, changes in foreign exchange rates, different accounting systems, potential for blocked funds, and political risk considerations. These factors are rarely experienced by traditionally domestic U.S. firms. To maintain a competitive edge, MNEs must continue to use the most efficient approaches available to them. This study provides a detailed analysis of the capital budgeting practices that are actually being used by foreign subsidiaries of U.S.‐based MNEs. The paper is organized in the following manner. Section I provides a brief overview of the theoretical and practical issues of international capital budgeting analysis. Section II focuses on the areas of data collection, questionnaire design, and environment‐specific and company‐specific factors. Section III discusses usage of capital budgeting techniques, adjustment and assessment of project risk, and factors influencing capital budgeting policies. The final section presents some findings from this study.

It was only two decades ago that foreign licensing gained wide recognition and acceptance as a positive, third approach to foreign markets, an alternative approach that could be used instead of exporting or direct foreign investment. Official statistical data on dollar receipts from licensing transactions are published in the Survey of Current Business as part of the balance of payments accounts. These data, compiled in Table I, indicate that receipts of royalties, fees and services from abroad more than doubled over the course of the 13 years between 1970 and 1983.

This paper proposes a discrete time real options model with time‐dependent and serial correlated return process for a real estate development problem with waiting options. Based on a Martingale condition, the paper claims to be able to relax many unrealistic assumptions made in the typical real option pricing methodology. Our real option model is a new one without assuming the return process as “Ito Process”, specifically, without assuming a geometric Brownian motion. We apply the model to the condominium market in Tokyo metropolitan area in the period 1971‐1997 and estimate the value of waiting to invest in 1998‐2007. The results partly provide realistic estimates of the parameters and show the applicability of our model.

Outlines the context within which the need for valuations of leisure property is developing. Arguing that the profits method, usually adopted for the valuation of leisure assets, is little understood on a research‐based theoretical level, introduces the initial findings of research into practitioner understanding of the method, in particular the capitalization rates adopted. Also suggests that the time is right to critically re‐examine the methods used in practice and sets out suggested pre‐requisites for the development of a sustainable and defensible approach to the valuation of commercial leisure property.

Malting barley is an important specialty crop in the Northern Plains and growers mitigate risk with federally subsidized crop insurance and production contracts. The purpose of this paper is to quantify risks growers face due to “coverage gaps” in crop insurance that result in uncertain indemnity payments when their crop does not meet contract specifications.

A stochastic dominance model is developed to evaluate alternative strategies for growers with differing risk attitudes and production practices (irrigation vs dryland).

The results illustrate how alternative crop insurance provisions affect efficient choice sets for growers. Risk premiums for irrigated growers all point to valuations favoring more coverage, contracts, and malting option B. As the crop insurance industry matures in the functions it performs, it will become increasingly more important to address quality attributes.

This paper addresses quality issues and coverage gaps in crop insurance provisions.