Search results

Transportation plays a central role in facilitating economic activities across sectors and between regions and thus should be essential to business cycle research. In this chapter, we identify four coincident indicators representing different aspects of the transportation sector. Foremost among them is the index of transportation services output (TSI) presented in the previous chapter. Following the long-standing methodology of National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) business cycle research, the other three indicators that we include are payroll, personal consumption and employment – all pertaining to the transportation sector. Using a composite of the four indicators, we define the classical business cycle and growth cycle chronologies for the transportation sector. We find that, relative to the economy, business cycles in the transportation sector have an average lead of nearly 6 months at peaks and an average lag of 2 months at troughs. Similar to transportation business cycles, growth slowdowns in this sector also last longer than the economy-wide slowdowns by a few months. This study underscores the importance of transportation indicators in monitoring cyclical movements in the aggregate economy.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between trade integration and intra-regional business cycle synchronization using value-added trade data. Most empirical studies analyzing the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization use gross trade data which suffer from double-counting. Double-counting distorts the empirical results on the estimated relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization. This paper explores the relationship using value-added trade data to be free from distortions caused by double-counting.

Gross trade data on exports and imports are decomposed into sub-categories following Koopman et al. (2014). Then, value-added data on exports and imports without double-counted terms are built to measure value-added bilateral trade intensity and value-added intra-industry trade intensity. Using this value-added trade intensities, the author run panel regressions for Europe and East Asian countries to examine how value-added trade intensities are correlated with output co-movements.

The paper finds that for European countries, the positive association between trade and business cycle co-movements is more evidently observed and the role of intra-industry trade increasing the business cycle synchronization is also more clearly revealed by value-added trade data. On the other hand, for East Asian countries, value-added trade data reveal that it is very uncertain whether increased trade contributes to stronger synchronization of business cycles and intra-industry trade is truly the major factor which deepens the business cycle co-movements.

First, the paper examines the relationship only by running static panel regression. There is a need to employ different methodologies such as instrumental variable regression or dynamic panel regression. Second, financial integration and policy coordination within a region are also other relevant factors which influence the intra-regional business cycle synchronization. There is a need to examine the relationship using value-added trade data with the variables measuring the degree of financial integration and policy coordination. Third, value-added trade data used in this paper has limited coverage of East Asian countries. There is also a need to extend the value-added data set to cover more countries and industries.

Most empirical literature studying the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization rely on gross trade data. This paper would be the first attempt to study the relationship using value-added trade data. Duval et al. (2014) also use value-added data, but their value-added data are not supported by a solid accounting framework which decomposes a country’s gross exports into various value-added components by source and additional double-counted terms. Value-added data in this paper computed based on Koopman et al. (2014) are the total domestic value exports that are ultimately consumed abroad via final and intermediate exports. The author believes that value-added data in this paper are most relevant in estimating the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the interdependence between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and business cycles within and among six emerging market economies (EMEs) from January 1999 to December 2018.

This study adopts the wavelet multiple correlations and wavelet multiple cross-correlation (WMCC) based on the maximal overlap discrete transform estimator. This methodology simultaneously investigates how two or more time series variables move together continuously at both time and frequency domains.

The empirical results show that business cycles comove with EPU for both intra- and inter-country analysis, with the long term showing the greatest degree of interdependence. In intra-country comparisons, EPU has a positive correlation with consumer price index and a negative correlation with share price index. According to the WMCC results, EPU does not have any leading or lagging power within each EME, but rather import has both lead and lag power. The inter-country WMCC results are all significant, with Korea’s EPU leading/following all EMEs across all scales.

This study contributes to the ongoing debate about what causes business cycles to comove by investigating business cycle indicators (leader/follower) using a robust wavelet methodology. The authors propose new variables that can clearly reflect the outcome of economic policy actions and translate information about EPU shocks. The inclusion of the variables has altered the understanding of the relationship between EPU and business cycle fluctuations. Policymakers also gain new insights into the trends and patterns of EPU and business cycles, which will help them formulate and implement fiscal and monetary policies more effectively.

This study examines credit score migration rates of farm businesses, testing whether migration probabilities differ across business cycles. Results suggest that agricultural credit ratings are more likely to improve during expansions and deteriorate during recessions. The analysis also tests whether agricultural credit ratings depend on the previous period migration trends. The findings show that credit score ratings exhibit trend reversal where upgrades (downgrades) are more likely to be followed by downgrades (upgrades).

The purpose of this paper is to examine how occupational mobility varies over the business cycle and how selected factors contribute to occupational mobility in different stages of the business cycle.

Using annual micro data from the Estonian Labour Force Survey (2001-2010) and implementing probit models with interaction terms, the paper investigates occupational mobility as a change of occupation in two successive years during recovery, boom and recession periods.

The analysis indicates that occupational mobility is higher during the recovery and boom periods and lower during the recession stage. The demographic characteristics (gender, marital status, knowledge of local language) influence the probability for occupational change during the recovery stage of the business cycle. The position of employees in the occupational hierarchy is significant during the recovery and boom periods. Employees working in the public sector have a lower probability for occupational change compared with private sector employees during the recession. Training has a positive effect on occupational mobility during recession. Tenure reduces the probability of occupational mobility over the whole business cycle.

The paper contributes to the literature by providing new results about the role of different factors of occupational mobility over the business cycle. This is among the few studies addressing the variation in the occupational mobility of employees from the public and private sectors. Interactions between the position of the employees in the occupational hierarchy and the ownership form of their employers and the economic sectors add to the understanding about the mechanism of occupational mobility over the business cycle stages.

Seeks to demonstrate that the Talmudic scholars possessed theoretical knowledge and practical experience regarding the market phenomenon of business disturbances, recognizing the existence of a causal relationship between the physical determinants of the cycles of the weather patterns and the fortunes of the agricultural sector, a condition which affected the economy as a whole. Discusses this linkage with respect to the insights in Johanan′s works. These come close to Hawtrey′s view of the business cycle as a monetary phenomenon, on the one hand, and Samuelson′s discussion of “supply shock” as a result of “...droughts and crop failures in agriculture”, on the other. Johanan also recognized the existence of a quantitativerelationship between money and prices, and prices and incomes. This suggests that the Talmudic scholars had come to appreciate the fundamentals of what was later to emerge as the quantity theory of money.

Provides an overview of the real business cycle research agenda, tackling the main theoretical and empirical issues. Concludes that although this methodological approach has been popular in terms of the number of papers published, it has not been completely convincing in providing a theory of the business cycle.

This study seeks to examine how a sport league, a unique feature of professional sport, influences the business‐to‐business marketing of teams participating in the sport league.

This study uses a qualitative research design based on a single case study, the UCI ProTour in professional road cycling. The primary sources consist of 27 semi‐structured interviews complemented by written sources and controlled for construct validity, external validity and reliability.

From a theoretical point of view, a sport league is a marketing channel network (a specific type of an intentionally developed business network or IDBN). Theoretical analysis also reveals that the teams' business‐to‐business marketing is positively related to the network's value‐creating system. Empirically, it is argued that the introduction of a marketing channel network has a positive influence on the financial value of the teams' business‐to‐business market but does not result in a change in the business demographics of corporate sponsors.

The study has possible sport‐specific limitations.

Business‐to‐business marketers and sport league managers should pay attention to the characteristics of the sport league as these influence the teams' business‐to‐business market. This is especially valid for sports in which teams rely strongly on sport sponsoring and, to a lesser extend, on gate revenues, television rights and prize money.

For the first time, this study examines and provides data on the business‐to‐business environment of teams in professional road cycling. It contributes to the literature of international sport marketing and professional road cycling, a sport gaining momentum in various countries and which is understudied in comparison to other sports.

The essential investments in new product development (NPD) made by industrial companies entail effective management of NPD activities. In this context, performance measurement is one of the means that can be employed in the pursuit of effectiveness.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of intellectual capital (IC) and its components (human, structural, relational and innovation capitals) on financial performance (FP) at different life cycle stages.

The study uses the data from Chinese manufacturing listed companies during 2014–2018. The modified value added intellectual coefficient (MVAIC) model is employed as the measurement of IC efficiency. Finally, multiple regression analysis is used to test the research hypotheses.

This study shows that the impact of IC on FP is different across life cycle stages. Specifically, at the birth stage, human capital (HC), structural capital (SC) and innovation capital (INC) have a positive impact on FP. At the growth and mature stages, all IC components contribute to FP improvement. HC and SC play an important role at the revival stage, while only HC positively affects FP at the decline stage.

The findings may help corporate managers to make optimal strategies to improve FP by effective utilization of IC resources in the complex and competitive business environment. Meanwhile, companies can invest in the core elements of IC at different stages of development, so as to maximize the contribution of IC to company value.

This is among the few studies to explore the impact of IC on FP of manufacturing listed companies in the Chinese context from the perspective of life cycle. It also makes novel contributions in measuring IC by the MVAIC model with the inclusion of relational capital and INC that are largely neglected in previous research.