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1 – 10 of over 2000Hsing-Hua Chang, Chen-Hsin Lai, Kuen-Liang Lin and Shih-Kuei Lin
Factor investment is booming in global asset management, especially environmental, social, and governance (ESG), dividend yield, and volatility factors. In this chapter, we use…
Abstract
Factor investment is booming in global asset management, especially environmental, social, and governance (ESG), dividend yield, and volatility factors. In this chapter, we use data from the US securities market from 2003 to 2019 to predict dividends and volatility factors through machine learning and historical data–based methods. After that, we utilize particle swarm optimization to construct the Markowitz portfolio with limits on the number of assets and weight restrictions. The empirical results show that that the prediction ability using XGBoost is superior to the historical factor investment method. Moreover, the investment performance of our portfolio with ESG, high-yield, and low-volatility factors outperforms baseline methods, especially the S&P 500 ETF.
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Shuifeng Hong, Yimin Luo, Mengya Li and Duoping Yang
This paper aims to empirically investigate time–frequency linkages between Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets in terms of correlation and risk…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to empirically investigate time–frequency linkages between Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets in terms of correlation and risk spillovers.
Design/methodology/approach
With daily data, the authors first undertake the MODWT method to decompose yield series into four different timescales, and then use the R-Vine Copula-CoVaR to analyze correlation and risk spillovers between Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets.
Findings
The empirical results are as follows: (a) short-term trading is the primary driver of price volatility in crude oil futures markets. (b) The crude oil futures markets exhibit certain regional aggregation characteristics, with the Indian crude oil futures market playing an important role in connecting Euramerican mature and Asian emerging crude oil futures markets. What’s more, Oman crude oil serves as a bridge to link Asian emerging crude oil futures markets. (c) There are significant tail correlations among different futures markets, making them susceptible to “same fall but different rise” scenarios. The volatility behavior of the Indian and Euramerican markets is highly correlated in extreme incidents. (d) Those markets exhibit asymmetric bidirectional risk spillovers. Specifically, the Euramerican mature crude oil futures markets demonstrate significant risk spillovers in the extreme short term, with a relatively larger spillover effect observed on the Indian crude oil futures market. Compared with India and Japan in Asian emerging crude oil futures markets, China's crude oil futures market places more emphasis on changes in market fundamentals and prefers to hold long-term positions rather than short-term technical factors.
Originality/value
The MODWT model is utilized to capture the multiscale coordinated motion characteristics of the data in the time–frequency perspective. What’s more, compared to traditional methods, the R-Vine Copula model exhibits greater flexibility and higher measurement accuracy, enabling it to more accurately capture correlation structures among multiple markets. The proposed methodology can provide evidence for whether crude oil futures markets exhibit integration characteristics and can deepen our understanding of connections among crude oil futures prices.
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Zilong Liu, Hongyan Liang and Chang Liu
In theory, the impact of debt liquidity risk (DLR) on the firm's future growth is ambiguous. This study aims to examine the empirical relationship between the DLR and firms'…
Abstract
Purpose
In theory, the impact of debt liquidity risk (DLR) on the firm's future growth is ambiguous. This study aims to examine the empirical relationship between the DLR and firms' growth rate using annual data for USA companies from 1976 to 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
Given the longitudinal nature of the data, the author uses OLS (ordinary least squares) regression methodology with fixed effects to control for unobserved characteristics that might affect the dependent variable. Instrument variable regression is also used to address the potential endogeneity problem.
Findings
The results show that firms having higher DLR, as proxied by more short-term debt, experience lower growth rate. An increase in firms' short-term debt decreases the firms' future growth rate as evidenced by lower assets, revenue and employee growth rate. Moreover, the authors' results show that small firms or firms with more investment opportunities grow fast if the firms take higher DLR. Finally, cyclical firms with higher DLR exhibit lower growth rate during the credit tighten period. The authors' results hold for both the pre-zero lower bound (ZLB) era and ZLB period.
Originality/value
To the authors' best knowledge, this is one of the earliest studies to carefully examine the effects of DLR on firms' growth rate. While prior research finds that firms with higher growth potential, measured by market-to-book (MTB) ratio, use more short-term debt, the authors' research directly addresses whether DLR affects firms' future growth rate. The authors’ findings also help explain why firms with high growth potential use more short-term debt.
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Mohammadreza Tavakoli Baghdadabad
We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.
Abstract
Purpose
We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.
Design/methodology/approach
We estimate a cross-sectional model of expected entropy that uses several common risk factors to predict idiosyncratic entropy.
Findings
We find a negative relationship between expected idiosyncratic entropy and returns. Specifically, the Carhart alpha of a low expected entropy portfolio exceeds the alpha of a high expected entropy portfolio by −2.37% per month. We also find a negative and significant price of expected idiosyncratic entropy risk using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.
Originality/value
We propose a risk factor of idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.
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Ransome Epie Bawack, Emilie Bonhoure and Sabrine Mallek
This study aims to identify and explore different risk typologies associated with consumer acceptance of purchase recommendations from voice assistants (VAs).
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to identify and explore different risk typologies associated with consumer acceptance of purchase recommendations from voice assistants (VAs).
Design/methodology/approach
Drawing on components of perceived risk, consumer trust theory, and consumption value theory, a research model was proposed and tested using structural equation modeling (SEM) with data from 482 voice shoppers.
Findings
The results reveal that, unlike risks associated with physical harm, privacy breaches, and security threats, a variety of other concerns—including financial, psychological, social, performance-related risks, time loss, and the overall perceived risks—significantly influence consumers' willingness to accept VAs purchase recommendations. The effect is mediated by trust in VA purchase recommendations and their perceived value. Different types of risk affect various consumption values, with functional value being the most influential. The model explains 58.6% of the variance in purchase recommendation acceptance and significantly elucidates the variance in all consumption values.
Originality/value
This study contributes crucial knowledge to understanding consumer decision-making processes as they increasingly leverage AI-powered voice-based dialogue platforms for online purchasing. It emphasizes recognizing diverse risk typologies associated with VA purchase recommendations and their impact on consumer purchase behavior. The findings offer insights for marketing managers seeking to navigate the challenges posed by consumers' perceived risks while leveraging VAs as an integral component of modern shopping environments.
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Mahmoud Arayssi and Noura Yassine
This paper aims to estimate a statistical model of the country risk determination as represented by the country price earnings ratio (PE) to identify potentially mispriced…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to estimate a statistical model of the country risk determination as represented by the country price earnings ratio (PE) to identify potentially mispriced countries. It uses the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and a dummy indicator for market-related events (i.e. financial crises), both approximating the business cycle. The model is used to compare a major Asian country’s (i.e. Japan) risk with Western countries’ risk.
Design/methodology/approach
The model used finance variables such as the systemic, non-diversifiable, risk and foreign direct investments to characterize any country risk. A random effects model with panel data estimated the effects of macroeconomic and financial variables on PE. The simultaneity problem was checked using two stage least squares and some lagged independent variables.
Findings
The results explained to investors the country risk contributing factors: PE was positively correlated with variables that may increase dividends and market risk premia similar to GDP growth rates and total risk and negatively correlated with variables that increase market risk, namely, nominal risk-free interest rates and financial crises. Japan’s PE seemed to exceed most of the Western countries considered here, implying lower risks, lower interest rates and higher growth in the major Asian country Japan.
Originality/value
This paper focuses on the effectiveness of country risk measures in predicting periods of intense instability, similar to financial crises. This study contributes a model to measure market risk premium, using PE (or inversely, the earnings yield) as a proxy variable. Investors can use this risk measure in picking less risky stocks to include in their portfolio, calling for liberalizing Asian countries’ financial markets to improve their stock market capitalization.
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Achilleas Vassilopoulos, Lydia Papadaki and Phoebe Koundouri
Storytelling through virtual reality (VR) combines the strengths of cutting-edge technology with traditional informational campaigns. As a tool for climate change mitigation, VR…
Abstract
Purpose
Storytelling through virtual reality (VR) combines the strengths of cutting-edge technology with traditional informational campaigns. As a tool for climate change mitigation, VR has been shown to educate individuals and stimulate both emotional and cognitive responses that promote pro-environmental behavior. This paper aims to investigate whether these benefits extend to the field of green investing through an experiment conducted with a sample of small business entrepreneurs.
Design/methodology/approach
The experimental design involved making choices between bonds varying in maturity dates, annual interest and environmental classification (regular versus green). To identify potential impacts of the immersive experience on investment decisions, these choices were made both before and after exposure to VR videos illustrating the devastating effects of climate change. A multiple price list was employed to elicit subjects' risk preferences, enabling the joint estimation of the treatment effect and the risk and time preference parameters.
Findings
The findings indicate that, when risk and time preference parameters are controlled for, a VR experience can nudge toward green investment choices. This effect is more profound among those who already exhibit a greater propensity to opt for green investments.
Originality/value
Previous research shows that negative emotions, such as guilt, affect pro-environmental intentions, as well as actions, while message vividness through immersive experiences is effective in nudging greener behavior. Since analogous results in the framework of financial investments are not currently available, this paper seeks to test whether VR videos depicting the adverse effects of climate change can generate negative emotions associated with experiencing these effects and make them salient in subsequent investment decisions made by small business entrepreneurs.
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Gavin Ford and Jonathan Gosling
The construction industry has struggled to deliver schemes on time to budget and right-first-time (RFT). There have been many studies into nonconformance and rework through…
Abstract
Purpose
The construction industry has struggled to deliver schemes on time to budget and right-first-time (RFT). There have been many studies into nonconformance and rework through quantitative research over the years to understand why the industry continues to see similar issues of failure. Some scholars have reported rework figures as high as 12.6% of total contract value, highlighting major concerns of the sustainability of construction projects. Separately, however, there have been few studies that explore and detail the views of industry professions who are caught in the middle of quality issues, to understand their perceptions of where the industry is failing. As such, this paper interrogates qualitative data (open-ended questions) on the topic of nonconformance and rework in construction to understand what industry professionals believe are the causes and suggested improvement areas.
Design/methodology/approach
A qualitative approach is adopted for this research. An industry survey consisting of seven open-ended questions is presented to two professional working groups within a Tier 1 contractor, and outputs are analysed using statistic software (NVivo 12) to identify prominent themes for discussion. Inductive analysis is undertaken to gain further insight into responses to yield recurrent areas for continuous improvement.
Findings
Qualitative analysis of the survey reveals a persistent prioritisation of cost and programme over quality management in construction project. Furthermore, feedback from construction professionals present a number of improvement areas that must be addressed to improve quality. These include increased training and competency investment, overhauling quality behaviours, providing greater quality leadership direction and reshaping the way clients govern schemes.
Research limitations/implications
There are limitations to this paper that require noting. Firstly, the survey was conducted within one principal contractor with varying levels of knowledge across multiple sectors. Secondly, the case study was from one major highways scheme; therefore, the generalisability of the findings is limited. It is suggested that a similar exercise is undertaken in other sectors to uncover similar improvement avenues.
Practical implications
The implications of this study calls for quality to be re-evaluated at project, company, sector and government levels to overhaul how quality is delivered. Furthermore, the paper identifies critical learning outcomes for the construction sector to take forward, including the need to reassess projects to ensure they are appropriately equip with competent personnel under a vetted, progressive training programme, share collaborative behaviours that value quality delivery on an equal standing to safety, programme and cost and tackle the inappropriate resource dilemmas projects finding themselves in through clear tendering and accurate planning. In addition, before making erratic decisions, projects must assess the risk profiling of proceed without approved design details and include the client in the decision-making process. Moreover, the findings call for a greater collaborative environment between the construction team and quality management department, rather than being seen as obstructive (i.e. compliance based policing). All of these must be driven by leadership to overhaul the way quality is managed on schemes. The findings demonstrate the importance and impact from open-ended survey response data studies to enhance quantitative outcomes and help provide strengthened proposals of improvement.
Originality/value
This paper addresses the highly sensitive area of quality failure outcomes and interrogates them via an industry survey within a major UK contractor for feedback. Unique insights are gained into how industry professionals perceive quality in construction. From previous research, this has been largely missing and offers a valuable addition in understanding the “quality status quo” from those delivering schemes.
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Nikita Dhankar, Srikanta Routroy and Satyendra Kumar Sharma
The internal (farmer-controlled) and external (non-farmer-controlled) factors affect crop yield. However, not a single study has identified and analyzed yield predictors in India…
Abstract
Purpose
The internal (farmer-controlled) and external (non-farmer-controlled) factors affect crop yield. However, not a single study has identified and analyzed yield predictors in India using effective predictive models. Thus, this study aims to investigate how internal and external predictors impact pearl millet yield and Stover yield.
Design/methodology/approach
Descriptive analytics and artificial neural network are used to investigate the impact of predictors on pearl millet yield and Stover yield. From descriptive analytics, 473 valid responses were collected from semi-arid zone, and the predictors were categorized into internal and external factors. Multi-layer perceptron-neural network (MLP-NN) model was used in Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 25 to model them.
Findings
The MLP-NN model reveals that rainfall has the highest normalized importance, followed by irrigation frequency, crop rotation frequency, fertilizers type and temperature. The model has an acceptable goodness of fit because the training and testing methods have average root mean square errors of 0.25 and 0.28, respectively. Also, the model has R2 values of 0.863 and 0.704, respectively, for both pearl millet and Stover yield.
Research limitations/implications
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study is first of its kind related to impact of predictors of both internal and external factors on pearl millet yield and Stover yield.
Originality/value
The literature reveals that most studies have estimated crop yield using limited parameters and forecasting approaches. However, this research will examine the impact of various predictors such as internal and external of both yields. The outcomes of the study will help policymakers in developing strategies for stakeholders. The current work will improve pearl millet yield literature.
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Haoyu Gao, Ruixiang Jiang, Junbo Wang and Xiaoguang Yang
This chapter investigates the cost of public debt for firms using a comprehensive sample consisting of 17,368 industrial bond issues from 1970 to 2011. The empirical evidence…
Abstract
This chapter investigates the cost of public debt for firms using a comprehensive sample consisting of 17,368 industrial bond issues from 1970 to 2011. The empirical evidence shows that yield spreads for seasoned bond issues are significantly lower than those for initial bond issues. This seasoning effect is robust across different sample periods, subsamples, and model specifications. On average, the yield spreads for seasoned bond issues are around 50 bps lower than those for initial bond issues. This difference cannot be explained by other bond and firm characteristics. The seasoning effect is more pronounced for firms with higher levels of uncertainty, lower information disclosure quality, and longer time intervals between the first and subsequent issues. Our empirical findings provide supportive evidence for the extant theories that aim to rationalize the information role in determining the cost of capital.
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