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This study explores whether a new machine learning method can more accurately predict the movement of stock prices.
Abstract
Purpose
This study explores whether a new machine learning method can more accurately predict the movement of stock prices.
Design/methodology/approach
This study presents a novel hybrid deep learning model, Residual-CNN-Seq2Seq (RCSNet), to predict the trend of stock price movement. RCSNet integrates the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, convolutional neural network (CNN) and the sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) long–short-term memory (LSTM) model.
Findings
The hybrid model is able to forecast both linear and non-linear time-series component of stock dataset. CNN and Seq2Seq LSTMs can be effectively combined for dynamic modeling of short- and long-term-dependent patterns in non-linear time series forecast. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms baseline models on S&P 500 index stock dataset from January 2000 to August 2016.
Originality/value
This study develops the RCSNet hybrid model to tackle the challenge by combining both linear and non-linear models. New evidence has been obtained in predicting the movement of stock market prices.
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Zhonglu Liu, Haibo Sun and Songlin Tang
Climate change not only causes serious economic losses but also influences financial stability. The related research is still at the initial stage. This paper aims to examine and…
Abstract
Purpose
Climate change not only causes serious economic losses but also influences financial stability. The related research is still at the initial stage. This paper aims to examine and explore the impact of climate change on financial stability in China.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper first uses vector autoregression model to study the impact of climate change to financial stability and applies NARDL model to assess the nonlinear asymmetric effect of climate change on China’s financial stability using monthly data from 2002 to 2018.
Findings
The results show that both positive and negative climate shocks do harm to financial stability. In the short term, the effect of positive climate shocks on financial stability is greater than the negative climate shocks in the current period, but less in the lag period. In the long term, negative climate shocks bring larger adjustments to financial stability relative to positive climate shocks. Moreover, compared with the short-term effect, climate change is more destructive to financial stability in the long run.
Originality/value
The paper provides a quantitative reference for assessing the nexus between climate change and financial stability from a nonlinear and asymmetric perspective, which is beneficial for understanding climate-related financial risks.
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Zhonglu Zeng, Xing Wang and IpKin Anthony Wong
The adaptation hypothesis suggests that gambling participation would gradually decline after an initial exposure to this activity. While this hypothesis was tested in pathological…
Abstract
Purpose
The adaptation hypothesis suggests that gambling participation would gradually decline after an initial exposure to this activity. While this hypothesis was tested in pathological gambling among residents in Western countries, the present inquiry explores the hypothesis in a tourism context.
Design/methodology/approach
This research is focused on the Mainland Chinese gamblers. Convenience sampling was used. Data were collected outside participating casinos and at major attractions. A total of 498 valid responses were collected.
Findings
By assessing changes of the Mainland Chinese gambling perceptions (e.g. excitement and fallacy) and behaviors, results point to visitor gamblers' decrease in gambling excitement and fallacy as well as budget to income ratio.
Originality/value
By assessing changes of the Mainland Chinese gambling perceptions and behaviors, this research aims to contribute to the literature by demonstrating whether the Chinese gamblers have adapted and hence, are more rational about this recreational activity.
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Guangming Han, Zhiqiang Hou and Yuanshui Huang
Selecting the development and renewal of residential areas has caused significant confusion in the construction of a new countryside with the rapid development of information and…
Abstract
Selecting the development and renewal of residential areas has caused significant confusion in the construction of a new countryside with the rapid development of information and computer technology. The application of digital assistive technology in traditional settlement planning has received increasing attention in recent years. Thus, this study combined the folk culture of traditional settlement, local unique landform, and climate environment. Digital technology was used as the starting point. Traditional settlement planning and green update design were studied with the help of a digital building software. The planning of Shuanglong Village and the residential green renewal design were taken as examples. Shuanglong Village's overall planning and design was presented and showed that its road traffic was clearly planned. The rational use of local land was attained. The landscape of Shuanglong Village was then designed. Practice has proven that the research on traditional settlement planning and green renewal design based on digital assistive technology can provide the basis for such activities.
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Purpose – This study investigates the nature, types, and methods of fraudulent financial reporting committed by Chinese listed companies with a view to understanding corporate…
Abstract
Purpose – This study investigates the nature, types, and methods of fraudulent financial reporting committed by Chinese listed companies with a view to understanding corporate behavior relating to management fraud in China. Such an understanding is important for preventing frauds and achieving better financial reporting compliance.
Design/Methodology/Approach – This study adopts a descriptive research approach using the data based on 182 punishment bulletins issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission from 2002 to 2006. The study considers three categories of frauds (i.e., false income statements, false balance sheets, and insufficient or false disclosure) and uses these categories to describe and analyze the fraud cases.
Research findings/Insights – Based on the sample of 83 cases over the 5-year period from 2002 to 2006, this study finds that all the frauds in the sample involved the manipulation, alteration, and falsification of reported financial information. Fraud schemes often contained more than one technique to misstate financial statements, typically through overstating revenues and assets, and understating liabilities and expenses. Most of the sample companies committed several frauds simultaneously. This study also reveals that most of the frauds committed by Chinese listed companies lasted more than 2 years, with the longest being 9 years, and common intervals between the initial fraud year and the announcement year of punishment were more than 3 years, with the longest being 11 years.
Theoretical/Academic implications – This study provides an empirical analysis of fraudulent financial reporting cases committed by Chinese listed companies. These cases were rarely studied in the Western literature. This study contributes to the extant literature by providing an insight into management fraud in China. Research into fraudulent financial reporting in the largest developing economy is certainly of interest as prior research into this area is mostly based on developed economies.
Practitioner/Policy implications – The implications drawn from this study could be useful for a better understanding of the management behavior of companies in developing and transitional economies. This study has a potential to assist regulators and accounting professional bodies to set guidelines facilitating corporate compliance of regulated financial reporting.
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Purpose – To review the place of bicycle transportation within the Chinese national objective of sustainable development.Methodology – The chapter provides an analysis of the…
Abstract
Purpose – To review the place of bicycle transportation within the Chinese national objective of sustainable development.
Methodology – The chapter provides an analysis of the evolution of bicycle transportation policies in China, and a discussion of the latest developments in the function and operation of public bicycle hire schemes.
Findings – Due to high population density, the prevailing mix of land use and a lack of affordability of cars and motor scooters, bicycle transportation has historically been very common in the urban areas of China. However, since the 1990s, many Chinese cities implemented restrictive policies on the development of bicycle transportation and the modal share of bicycles has reduced sharply.
Practical implications – The chapter suggests that China would need to create favourable conditions for bicycle transportation in urban areas through means such as policy support, land use planning, use of economic levers and through creating an acceptable social and cultural atmosphere for cycling. Finally, the maintenance of a relatively high proportion of bicycle traffic would need to be regarded as an index for sustainable urban development.
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Zhiguang Li, Yaokuang Li and Dan Long
From the perspective of cause and effect, the operational processes of property insurance companies can be considered as historical events. The purpose of this study is to measure…
Abstract
Purpose
From the perspective of cause and effect, the operational processes of property insurance companies can be considered as historical events. The purpose of this study is to measure the operating efficiency of China's property insurance industry, explore the determinants that affect technical efficiency and outline the path to achieving high-quality development.
Design/methodology/approach
We chose 44 Chinese property insurance companies as research objects. The data were obtained from the Chinese Insurance Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook 2015–2017. First, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method was used to calculate the technical efficiency of property insurance companies. Then, Tobit regression and quantile regression were adopted to explore the influencing factors of technical efficiency. Finally, the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) method was employed to summarize the path to improving the operating efficiency of property insurance companies.
Findings
The empirical results in the first stage suggested that the operation efficiency of China's property insurance industry was technically inefficient, and the scale efficiency was relatively better than the pure technical efficiency. In the second stage, we observed that the drivers for firm size, reinsurance rate, claim ratio and equity restriction were important determinants of an insurance firm's efficiency.
Research limitations/implications
We also put forward four applicable, targeted and proven ways to improve the technical efficiency of property insurance companies. These configurations are verified by cases of existing property insurance companies, which can provide practical references for the insurance industry.
Originality/value
Our research enriches the insurance literature and efficiency methods, particularly regarding the specific paths of improving the technical efficiency. The relationship between elements and results is analyzed from a systematic perspective, and the research results are not only more consistent with what logic might imply but also more instructive for the improvement of reality.
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