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1 – 10 of over 2000Kashif Munir and Faqeer Syed Umaid Shahid
This study examines the long-run and short-run impact of demographic factors, i.e. life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio in determining the economic growth of…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the long-run and short-run impact of demographic factors, i.e. life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio in determining the economic growth of South Asian countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The theoretical foundation of the study relies on demographic transition theory and incorporates life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio into the production function by means of human capital component. The study uses annual panel data of four South Asian courtiers, i.e. Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka from 1980 to 2018 and utilizes panel ARDL model to analyze the long run and short run impact of demographic factors on economic growth.
Findings
Results show that real stock of capital, fertility rate and life expectancy are positively related with economic growth, while an increase in young dependency ratio reduces economic growth in South Asian countries in the long run. Short-run dynamics show that real stock of capital and life expectancy have insignificant impact on economic growth, while young dependency ratio has negative and significant as well as life expectancy has positive and significant impact on economic growth in South Asian countries. Unidirectional causality exists from young dependency ratio and fertility rate to GDP per capita in the short run.
Practical implications
Government has to design policies for better health and education facilities to yield high economic growth as well as better infrastructure and macroeconomic stability to facilitate capital accumulation in the region to foster economic growth.
Originality/value
This study considerably adds into the existing literature by providing better understanding of various demographic aspects and their economic inference by highlighting the demographic changes that South Asia has endured. This study is also beneficial for policymakers and growth analysts in generating effective and sustainable policies regarding population dynamics and economic development of the region.
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The objective of the study is to explore the determinants of savings and their relative importance in Saudi Arabia.
Abstract
Purpose
The objective of the study is to explore the determinants of savings and their relative importance in Saudi Arabia.
Design/methodology/approach
The stationarity of the data has been tested using augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) tests. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique has been applied to establish the long run and short run relationships. Stability of savings function has been tested by applying CUSUM and CUSUMSQ techniques.
Findings
Results of ARDL identify the important factors affecting savings behaviour in Saudi Arabia. According to the results, the growth rate of GDP, the interest rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) and budget surplus positively affect savings with the last two having the most influence on domestic savings. The coefficient of the dependency ratio is negative in conformity with the theory. Similarly, the coefficient of the inflation rate is also negative.
Research limitations/implications
There is limited availability of data since only 41 years’ annual data are available.
Practical implications
In the light of the results, it is recommended that in order to increase savings, the government should adopt policies to attract FDI, increase the GDP growth rate and decrease the dependency ratio and inflation.
Social implications
Government needs to discourage larger family sizes to encourage savings in the light of the result of negative impact of the dependency ratio on savings. In order to decrease the dependency ratio, more family members especially women should be encouraged to participate in the labour market.
Originality/value
There is a scarcity of research for Saudi Arabia on the critical issue of determinants of domestic savings. This is a pioneering study exploring important determinants of savings in Saudi data.
Peer review
The peer review history for this article is available at https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-08-2021-0493.
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The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effects of a declining birth rate and an increasing old age‐population ratio on Ireland's economic output.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effects of a declining birth rate and an increasing old age‐population ratio on Ireland's economic output.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper utilises data on the birth rate, old‐age population ratio, economic output and labour effort of the Irish economy to estimate a vector‐autoregressive model. The results of this model are then analysed to test for the presence of Granger causality among these variables. In doing so it is possible to assess whether there are statistically significant causal relationships existing among these factors. Subsequently, impulse response functions are derived from this model in order to assess the magnitude of the causal relationships.
Findings
The results suggest that declining fertility rates and increases in the old‐age dependency ratio have a significant impact on labour effort and economic output. Labour effort is also found to explain variation in the fertility rate and economic output. Economic output is found to effect labour effort and the fertility rate.
Social implications
The results derived in this paper raise interesting policy implications. It is evident that Ireland's declining birth rate and increasing old‐age population ratio are creating a demographic situation which will have implications for future economic growth. Policies need to be put in place to mitigate the negative effects these factors will have on Irish growth.
Originality/value
This paper adopts modern econometric techniques to assess the causal relationships which exist between the demographic and economic factors considered. These have not previously been applied to the Irish situation. In doing this, this paper provides an important insight into the changing dynamics of the Irish economy.
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Mohamed Sherif and Sadia Hussnain
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the driving forces (economics and socio-demographic) that influence family Takaful demand in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the driving forces (economics and socio-demographic) that influence family Takaful demand in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, using a sample of 15 countries from the MENA.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use multivariate analysis, bootstrapping and generalised method of moments techniques. They first examine a full model that combines all variables; second, a model that controls for product market factors; and finally, a model that controls for socio-demographic factors. They further separate all models into linear and log-linear demand functions.
Findings
The authors demonstrate that the relationship between the demand for family Takaful in MENA and Islamic banking deposits, education, dependency rate, female life expectancy and Muslim population is significantly positive. On the other hand, the significant factors that are inversely related to the demand for family Takaful in MENA are inflation, financial development and male life expectancy.
Research limitation/implications
The crucial limitation of this study is the amount of data available in regards to the dependent variable, family Takaful contributions. Consequently, to improve the understanding in explaining the family Takaful demand in MENA, further research can take advantage of expanding the variables that were omitted in this research as a consequence of the unavailability of data. Some of the possible influential variables can include government social security expenditure, legal system and government policies, price of Takaful and level of competition within the Takaful and insurance industry.
Originality/value
It is obvious that there are very few studies that focus on the MENA market, and indeed, none of them gives attention to the factors that influence demand for family Takaful. While this study is expected to provide more understanding and awareness on the concept of Takaful and the factors that influence its demand, the authors hope that it would encourage more studies on various issues on the Takaful industry so as to help researchers to understand more aspects of this new emerging business.
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Kıvılcım Metin Özcan and Yusuf Ziya Özcan
This chapter investigates the relationship between private savings and a broad range of macroeconomic aggregates in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the period…
Abstract
This chapter investigates the relationship between private savings and a broad range of macroeconomic aggregates in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the period 1981–1994. Private savings are explained by the growth rate of income and strong inertia. Public savings crowd out private savings only partially. A financial depth measure suggests that countries with deeper financial systems will tend to have higher private savings. Private credit and real interest rates capture the severity of borrowing constraints and the degree of financial repression. Inflation captures the macroeconomic volatility and has a positive impact on savings.
Kamrul Hassan, Ruhul Salim and Harry Bloch
This article examines the impact of population age structure on the real exchange rate. Data on a panel of 22 OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) countries…
Abstract
This article examines the impact of population age structure on the real exchange rate. Data on a panel of 22 OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) countries over 1980–2015 period are used to estimate the empirical model. Using fixed effect model the paper finds that different age cohorts have a significant influence on the real exchange rates in the sample countries. The results are mostly consistent with the theoretical framework discussed in the paper and also with the findings of previous studies in this area. These results have important policy implications given the fact that the population is ageing in almost all the OECD economies these days.
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Hacer Simay Karaalp-Orhan, Nurgül Evcim and Fatih Deyneli
The aim of this study is to analyze which socioeconomic factors (economic, demographic, and political) most commonly affect the social expenditure of the European Union (EU) and…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this study is to analyze which socioeconomic factors (economic, demographic, and political) most commonly affect the social expenditure of the European Union (EU) and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.
Design/methodology/approach
A panel data fixed-effects model is employed for 34 OECD and 23 EU countries between 2000 and 2020.
Findings
Results indicate that, in all country groups, economic factors have the most significant influence on social expenditures, with income being the primary determinant, particularly in EU countries. The negative impacts of unemployment and inflation underscore the importance of counter-cyclical measures adopted by countries to maintain stability in their social expenditures. The most influential demographic factor is found as the old-age-dependency ratio. While the rule of law affects social expenditure positively, government effectiveness and female labor force participation affect it negatively. The positive effect of Konjunkturforschungsstelle (KOF) indexes shows the globalization effect, which can be attributable to the compensation hypothesis.
Practical implications
Governments enforce inclusive and sustainable policies to boost economic activities and GDP, thus combating inflation and unemployment and regulating the labor market and socioeconomic problems about aging populations and women’s economic participation to control social expenditures. The rule of law and institutional quality will also boost economic growth.
Originality/value
This study focuses on the effects of social expenditures in a broader view within the framework of the three main factors (economic, demographic, political) and attempts to determine the key factors that account for the differences in social expenditure between the OECD and EU countries.
Peer review
The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-05-2023-0384
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Avijit Sarkar, Mehrdad Koohikamali and James B. Pick
In recent years, short-term sharing accommodation platforms such as Airbnb have made rapid forays in populous cities worldwide, impacting neighborhoods profoundly. Emerging work…
Abstract
Purpose
In recent years, short-term sharing accommodation platforms such as Airbnb have made rapid forays in populous cities worldwide, impacting neighborhoods profoundly. Emerging work has focused on demand-side motivations to engage in the sharing economy. The purpose of this paper is to analyze rarely examined supply-side motivations of providers.
Design/methodology/approach
To address this gap and to illuminate understanding of how Airbnb supply is configured and influenced, this study examines spatial patterns and socioeconomic influences on participation in the sharing accommodation economy by Airbnb hosts in New York City (NYC). An exploratory conceptual model of host participation is induced, which posits associations of demographic, economic, employment, social capital attributes, and attitudes toward trust and sustainability with host participation, measured by Airbnb property density in neighborhoods. Methods employed include ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, k-means cluster analysis and spatial analytics.
Findings
Spatially, clusters of high host densities are in Manhattan and northern Brooklyn and there is little proportionate change longitudinally. OLS regression findings reveal that gender ratio, black race/ethnicity, median household income, and professional, scientific, and technical occupation, and attitudes toward sustainability for property types are dominant correlates of property density, while host trust in customers is not supported.
Research limitations/implications
These results along with differences between Queens and Manhattan boroughs have implications for hosts sharing their homes and for city managers to formulate policies and regulate short-term rental markets in impacted neighborhoods.
Originality/value
The study is novel in conceptualizing and analyzing the supply-side provider motivations of the sharing accommodation economy. Geostatistical analysis of property densities to gauge host participation is novel. Value stems from new insights on NYC’s short-term homesharing market.
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M. Kabir and M.S. Rahman
Knowledge about current size and structure of a country's population is needed for the formulation and implementation of policies and programs in almost all sectors of public…
Abstract
Purpose
Knowledge about current size and structure of a country's population is needed for the formulation and implementation of policies and programs in almost all sectors of public life. The purpose of this paper is to provide population projection for Oman, using population census and family health survey data.
Design/methodology/approach
Component method is used for projecting future population of Oman. Population Census data of 2003 by sex and by five‐year age groups were used. The base life expectancy of Oman is assumed to be 73 years and the base total fertility considered as 5.1 children per woman.
Findings
Depending upon the achievement of replacement fertility by the year 2025 or 2030 or 2035 the population of Oman in 2050 will vary from 4.5 million to 5.0 million. The different scenarios of population projection indicate that the population of Oman will not be stabilized before 2100.
Research limitations/implications
Population projection depends on assumptions about mortality, fertility, base life expectancy and migration. If these assumptions change then the projections will also change.
Practical implications
Because of high fertility in the past, women in the reproductive ages will increase for up to several decades. Thus, population growth will continue because of momentum effect, even if Oman achieves replacement fertility say in 2030. The age at marriage will increase.
Social implications
The rapid socio‐economic development and increased women empowerment will create a new outlook and ideas about lifestyles, leading to a decline in fertility. The decline in fertility is strongly related to social, health, education, employment opportunities of women and economic development, which through a variety of mechanisms, reduces the fertility desired and increases the fertility regulation through contraception, birth spacing and increased age at marriage of females. Because of increase in life expectancy and falling birth rate, the absolute number of the elderly population will have enormous impact on health care needs and hospitalization.
Originality/value
This paper deals with the population projection of Oman. Timely and accurate information about population trends is crucial for the socio‐economic development of a country. Knowledge about current size and structure of a country's population is needed for the formulation and implementation of policies and programs in almost all sectors of public life such as health, education and employment.
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Engin Duran, Burcu Uzgur Duran, Diyar Akay and Fatih Emre Boran
It is of great importance for economy policy makers to comprehend the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and domestic savings, and to find out which indicator is more…
Abstract
Purpose
It is of great importance for economy policy makers to comprehend the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and domestic savings, and to find out which indicator is more determinative on the dynamics of domestic savings. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the degree of relationship between Turkey’s domestic savings and selected macroeconomic indicators.
Design/methodology/approach
To examine the relationship, grey relational analysis (GRA) is applied together with the entropy method to determine the weight of the indicators according to the information level they provide. The analysis covers the data of the period from 1990 to 2014. In practice, however, the data set is used by dividing into two separate periods including before and after the 2001 crisis.
Findings
The results indicate that the unemployment rate and the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth stand out with a relatively high degree of relationship for the period before 2001. When examining the post-2001 period, current balance ratio and GDP growth are ascertained as indicators which have a high degree of relationship with domestic savings.
Practical implications
These indicators have different aspects affecting both public and private savings. Therefore, it may be beneficial to concentrate on these indicators when designing a policy in order to increase the domestic saving rate.
Originality/value
There are many econometric models used for investigating Turkey’s macroeconomic indicators and domestic savings causality. But before now, any study which investigates relationship between macroeconomic indicators and domestic savings by GRA could not be encountered. Using one of the newest developed theories (the grey systems theory) for this subject is the significance of this research.
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