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This paper aims to propose a hybrid-forecasting model for long-term tourism demand forecasting. As such, it attempts to model the tourism demand in the Philippines, which is a relatively underrepresented area in the literature, despite its tourism sector’s growing economic progress.

A hybrid support vector regression (SVR) – seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages (SARIMA) model is proposed to model the seasonal, linear and nonlinear components of the tourism demand in a destination country. The paper further proposes the use of multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) approaches in selecting the best forecasting model among a set of considered models. As such, a preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) II is used to rank the considered forecasting models.

The proposed hybrid SVR-SARIMA model is the best performing model among a set of considered models in this paper using performance criteria that evaluate the errors of magnitude, directionality and trend change, of a forecasting model. Moreover, the use of the MCDM approach is found to be a relevant and prospective approach in selecting the best forecasting model among a set of models.

The novelty of this paper lies in several aspects. First, this paper pioneers the demonstration of the SVR-SARIMA model’s capability in forecasting long-term tourism demand. Second, this paper is the first to have proposed and demonstrated the use of an MCDM approach for performing model selection in forecasting. Finally, this paper is one of the very few papers to provide lenses on the current status of Philippine tourism demand.

This paper investigates how power and narratives among actors relate to the process of agenda-setting and deliberation in the context of climate change loss and damage. The focus is to understand how grassroots voices manifest their concerns on intensifying economic and non-economic impacts of climate change loss and damage which affect them.

This paper is based on the case of the Southeast Asia climate change loss and damage workshop in Bohol, Philippines in August 2022. It utilizes lesson drawing as a critical approach by thematic analysis in making sense of the data gathered from the perspectives of participant observers and facilitators.

There are different levels of power and dominant narratives actors in a deliberative process propel in taking a stance over a particular issue towards agenda-setting and policy framing. The power and narratives help actors to maintain and emphasize their position, exercise authority, and to some point, suppress weak voices. Narratives associated with emotions, sentiments, ideologies, and value systems of the grassroots, community leaders, and climate justice movements tend to be devalued by those in a high level of power and authority.

Techno-authoritarian domination explicitly hampers a genuine grassroots involvement in the policy process, especially towards agenda-setting of immediate concerns about climate change loss and damage which affect the public. Critiquing actors’ power and narratives are productive in identifying and propagating the type of deliberative spaces that speak truth to power.