Search results

Forecasts of commodity prices are vital issues to market participants and policy makers. Those of corn are of no exception, considering its strategic importance. In the present study, the authors assess the forecast problem for the weekly wholesale price index of yellow corn in China during January 1, 2010–January 10, 2020 period.

The authors employ the nonlinear auto-regressive neural network as the forecast tool and evaluate forecast performance of different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data splitting ratios in arriving at the final model.

The final model is relatively simple and leads to accurate and stable results. Particularly, it generates relative root mean square errors of 1.05%, 1.08% and 1.03% for training, validation and testing, respectively.

Through the analysis, the study shows usefulness of the neural network technique for commodity price forecasts. The results might serve as technical forecasts on a standalone basis or be combined with other fundamental forecasts for perspectives of price trends and corresponding policy analysis.

This paper aims to build a scientific evaluation index system for regional low-carbon circular economic development. Taking Sichuan Province as the empirical research object, the paper evaluates its low-carbon circular economy (LCCE) development level and proposes policy recommendations for climate change improvement based on the evaluation results.

This paper, first, built an evaluation index system with 30 indicators within six subsystems, namely, economic development, social progress, energy consumption, low-carbon emissions, carbon sink capacity and environmental carrying capacity. Second, develop an “entropy weight-grey correlation” evaluation method. Finally, from a practical point of view, measure the development level of LCCE in Sichuan Province, China, from 2008 to 2018.

It was found that Sichuan LCCE development had a general downward trend from 2008 to 2012 and a steady upward trend from 2012 to 2018; however, the overall level was low. The main factors affecting the LCCE development are lagging energy consumption and environmental carrying capacity subsystem developments.

This paper puts forward relevant suggestions for improving the development of a low-carbon economy and climate change for the reference of policymakers.

This paper built an evaluation index system with 30 indicators for regional low carbon circular economic development. The evaluation method of “entropy weight-grey correlation” is used to measure the development level of regional LCCE in Sichuan Province, China.

Radical changes in consumer habits induced by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic suggest that the usual demand forecasting techniques based on historical series are questionable. This is particularly true for hospitality demand, which has been dramatically affected by the pandemic. Accordingly, we investigate the suitability of tourists’ activity on Twitter as a predictor of hospitality demand in the Way of Saint James – an important pilgrimage tourism destination.

This study compares the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series model with that of the SARIMA with an exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model to forecast hotel tourism demand. For this, 110,456 tweets posted on Twitter between January 2018 and September 2022 are used as exogenous variables.

The results confirm that the predictions of traditional time-series models for tourist demand can be significantly improved by including tourist activity on Twitter. Twitter data could be an effective tool for improving the forecasting accuracy of tourism demand in real-time, which has relevant implications for tourism management. This study also provides a better understanding of tourists’ digital footprints in pilgrimage tourism.

This study contributes to the scarce literature on the digitalisation of pilgrimage tourism and forecasting hotel demand using a new methodological framework based on Twitter user-generated content. This can enable hospitality industry practitioners to convert social media data into relevant information for hospitality management.

2019冠狀病毒病引致消費者習慣有根本的改變; 這些改變顯示，根據歷史序列而運作的慣常需求預測技巧未必是正確的。這不確性尤以受到大流行極大影響的酒店服務需求為甚。因此，我們擬探討、若把在推特網站上的旅遊活動視為聖雅各之路 (一個重要的朝聖旅遊聖地) 酒店服務需求的預測器，這會否是合適的呢?

本研究比較 SARIMA 時間序列模型與附有外生變數 (SARIMAX)模型兩者在預測旅遊及酒店服務需求方面的表現。為此，研究人員收集在推特網站上發佈的資訊，作為外生變數進行研究。這個樣本涵蓋於2018年1月至2022年9月期間110,456個發佈資訊。

研究結果確認了傳統的時間序列模型，若涵蓋推特網站上的旅遊活動，則其對旅遊需求方面的預測會得到顯著的改善。推特網站的數據，就改善預測實時旅遊需求的準確度，或許可成為有效的工具; 而這發現對旅遊管理會有一定的意義。本研究亦讓我們進一步瞭解朝聖旅遊方面旅客的數碼足跡。

現存文獻甚少探討朝聖旅遊的數字化，而本研究不但在這方面充實了有關的文獻，還使用了一個根據推特網站上使用者原創內容嶄新的方法框架，進行分析和探討。這會幫助酒店從業人員把社交媒體數據轉變為可供酒店管理之用的合宜資訊。

The purpose of this paper is to develop initial evidence about the nature and features of crowdfunding in China, given it is largely unregulated regulatory frameworks.

The paper used extensive desk research using data collected from the public and private sectors, after which the data was analyzed parallel to existing academic literature, that is, institutional context by Bruton et al. (2014). This paper uncovered patterns of development, profiling crowdfunding platforms, examining the regulatory landscape and providing antecedents of successful crowdfunding projects in China.

When the traditional financial markets are hard to reach, micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) were starved for capital. Crowdfunding can play a major role in funding and risk sharing. It is an innovative and dynamic vehicle for MSMEs as well as enthusiastic investors in China. Since its initial introduction to China in 2009, crowdfunding has gained substantial popularity in a relatively short period. Currently, there is still not an identifiable guideline on how to delineate the significance of the crowdfunding platform. The development of crowdfunding in China faces a few unresolved key issues. As researchers exploring this phenomenon in new ways, crowdfunding platforms can be enhanced in a manner that benefits the capital seeker, investors and society as a whole.

There is a dearth of information on start-up crowdfunding in Asia. With little data available to analyze, so this paper hopes to contribute to knowledge and provide valuable information to researchers and industry representations. Crowdfunding represents a potentially disruptive change in the way that new ventures are funded. This paper represents an initial analysis in the study of new ventures in China. Finally, the authors provide recommendations for entrepreneurs, investors and policymakers as well as researchers and practitioners with suggestions about yet unexplored avenues of research.

Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) prescriptions have always relied on the experience of TCM doctors, and machine learning(ML) provides a technical means for learning these experiences and intelligently assists in prescribing. However, in TCM prescription, there are the main (Jun) herb and the auxiliary (Chen, Zuo and Shi) herb collocations. In a prescription, the types of auxiliary herbs are often more than the main herb and the auxiliary herbs often appear in other prescriptions. This leads to different frequencies of different herbs in prescriptions, namely, imbalanced labels (herbs). As a result, the existing ML algorithms are biased, and it is difficult to predict the main herb with less frequency in the actual prediction and poor performance. In order to solve the impact of this problem, this paper proposes a framework for multi-label traditional Chinese medicine (ML-TCM) based on multi-label resampling.

In this work, a multi-label learning framework is proposed that adopts and compares the multi-label random resampling (MLROS), multi-label synthesized resampling (MLSMOTE) and multi-label synthesized resampling based on local label imbalance (MLSOL), three multi-label oversampling techniques to rebalance the TCM data.

The experimental results show that after resampling, the less frequent but important herbs can be predicted more accurately. The MLSOL method is shown to be the best with over 10% improvements on average because it balances the data by considering both features and labels when resampling.

The authors first systematically analyzed the label imbalance problem of different sampling methods in the field of TCM and provide a solution. And through the experimental results analysis, the authors proved the feasibility of this method, which can improve the performance by 10%−30% compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

The intelligent Central Traffic Control (CTC) system plays a vital role in establishing an intelligent high-speed railway (HSR) system. As the core of HSR transportation command, the intelligent CTC system is a new HSR dispatching command system that integrates the widely used CTC in China with the practical service requirements of intelligent dispatching. This paper aims to propose key technologies and applications for intelligent dispatching command in HSR in China.

This paper first briefly introduces the functions and configuration of the intelligent CTC system. Some new servers, terminals and interfaces are introduced, which are plan adjustment server/terminal, interface for automatic train operation (ATO), interface for Dynamic Monitoring System of Train Control Equipment (DMS), interface for Power Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (PSCADA), interface for Disaster Monitoring, etc.

The key technologies applied in the intelligent CTC system include automatic adjustment of train operation plans, safety control of train routes and commands, traffic information data platform, integrated simulation of traffic dispatching and ATO function. These technologies have been applied in the Beijing-Zhangjiakou HSR, which commenced operations at the end of 2019. Implementing these key intelligent functions has improved the train dispatching command capacity, ensured the safe operation of intelligent HSR, reduced the labor intensity of dispatching operators and enhanced the intelligence level of China's dispatching system.

This paper provides further challenges and research directions for the intelligent dispatching command of HSR. To achieve the objectives, new measures need to be conducted, including the development of advanced technologies for intelligent dispatching command, coping with new requirements with the development of China's railway signaling system, the integration of traffic dispatching and train control and the application of AI and data-driven modeling and methods.

This paper aims to propose a medium-term forecast model for the daily passenger volume of High Speed Railway (HSR) systems to predict the daily the Origin-Destination (OD) daily volume for multiple consecutive days (e.g. 120 days).

By analyzing the characteristics of the historical data on daily passenger volume of HSR systems, the date and holiday labels were designed with determined value ranges. In accordance to the autoregressive characteristics of the daily passenger volume of HSR, the Double Layer Parallel Wavelet Neural Network (DLP-WNN) model suitable for the medium-term (about 120 d) forecast of the daily passenger volume of HSR was established. The DLP-WNN model obtains the daily forecast result by weighed summation of the daily output values of the two subnets. Subnet 1 reflects the overall trend of daily passenger volumes in the recent period, and subnet 2 the daily fluctuation of the daily passenger volume to ensure the accuracy of medium-term forecast.

According to the example application, in which the DLP-WNN model was used for the medium-term forecast of the daily passenger volumes for 120 days for typical O-D pairs at 4 different distances, the average absolute percentage error is 7%-12%, obviously lower than the results measured by the Back Propagation (BP) neural network, the ELM (extreme learning machine), the ELMAN neural network, the GRNN (generalized regression neural network) and the VMD-GA-BP. The DLP-WNN model was verified to be suitable for the medium-term forecast of the daily passenger volume of HSR.

This study proposed a Double Layer Parallel structure forecast model for medium-term daily passenger volume (about 120 days) of HSR systems by using the date and holiday labels and Wavelet Neural Network. The predict results are important input data for supporting the line planning, scheduling and other decisions in operation and management in HSR systems.

This paper aims to optimize and evaluating the performance of the crowd networks through analyzing their information sharing patterns. That is, in a crowd network, the qualities of accomplishing tasks are highly dependent on the effective information sharing among intelligent subjects within the networks. Hence, proposing an adaptive information-sharing approach can help improve the performance of crowd networks on accomplishing tasks that are assigned to them.

This paper first introduces the factors that affect effectiveness of information-sharing pattern: the network topology, the resources owned by intelligent subjects and the degree of information demand. By analyzing the correlation between these factors and the performance of crowd networks, an Adaptive Information Sharing Approach for Crowd Networks (AISCN approach) is proposed. By referring to information needed for accomplishing the historical tasks that are assigned to a crowd network, the AISCN approach can explore the optimized information-sharing pattern based on the predefined composite objective function. The authors implement their approach on two crowd networks including bee colony and supply chain, to prove the effectiveness of the approach.

The shared information among intelligent subjects affects the efficiency of task completion in the crowd network. The factors that can be used to describe the effectiveness of information-sharing patterns include the network topology, the resources owned by intelligent subjects and the degree of information demand. The AISCN approach used heuristic algorithm to solve a composite objective function which takes all these factors into consideration, so that the optimized information-sharing pattern can be obtained.

This paper introduces a set of factors that can be used to describe the correlation between information-sharing pattern and performance of crowd network. By quantifying such correlation based on these factors, this paper proposes an adaptive information-sharing approach which can explore the optimized information-sharing pattern for a variety of crowd networks. As the approach is a data-driven approach that explores the information-sharing pattern based on the network’s performance on historical tasks and network’s characteristics, it is adaptive to the dynamic change (change of incoming tasks, change of network characteristics) of the target crowd network. To ensure the commonality of the information-sharing approach, the proposed approach is not designed for a specific optimization algorithm. In this way, during the implementation of the proposed approach, heuristic algorithms can be chosen according to the complexity of the target crowd network.

This paper reviews the literature on zombie firms to provide a holistic view by delineating their formation, impact, widespread nature, prevention and policy implications.

This paper uses a systematic literature review methodology, in which 76 papers published in journals ranked on the Australian Business Deans Council (ABDC) 2022 list were reviewed. The study period was from 2000 to 2022.

Among the main findings, the widespread problems of zombie firms were evident. The authors found that consistent support, either in the form of government grants or a weak financial framework, was responsible for their formation. The suboptimal performance of factors of production, depressed job creation, low innovation and overall negative impact on economic activity are the consequences of zombification. This can be controlled by ensuring better bankruptcy codes, focused on government assistance, technology use and better due diligence by banks.

This review serves as a reference point for future researchers as a cohesive and holistic study presenting a full picture of the problem, so that the proposed solutions are robust and tenable.

This review is among the initial attempts to comprehensively study published work on zombie firms in terms of analyzing their region-specific nature, with an emphasis on definition, causes, impact and prevention.