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Article
Publication date: 27 March 2024

Xiaomei Liu, Bin Ma, Meina Gao and Lin Chen

A time-varying grey Fourier model (TVGFM(1,1,N)) is proposed for the simulation of variable amplitude seasonal fluctuation time series, as the performance of traditional grey…

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Abstract

Purpose

A time-varying grey Fourier model (TVGFM(1,1,N)) is proposed for the simulation of variable amplitude seasonal fluctuation time series, as the performance of traditional grey models can't catch the time-varying trend well.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed model couples Fourier series and linear time-varying terms as the grey action, to describe the characteristics of variable amplitude and seasonality. The truncated Fourier order N is preselected from the alternative order set by Nyquist-Shannon sampling theorem and the principle of simplicity, then the optimal Fourier order is determined by hold-out method to improve the robustness of the proposed model. Initial value correction and the multiple transformation are also studied to improve the precision.

Findings

The new model has a broader applicability range as a result of the new grey action, attaining higher fitting and forecasting accuracy. The numerical experiment of a generated monthly time series indicates the proposed model can accurately fit the variable amplitude seasonal sequence, in which the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is only 0.01%, and the complex simulations based on Monte-Carlo method testify the validity of the proposed model. The results of monthly electricity consumption in China's primary industry, demonstrate the proposed model catches the time-varying trend and has good performances, where MAPEF and MAPET are below 5%. Moreover, the proposed TVGFM(1,1,N) model is superior to the benchmark models, grey polynomial model (GMP(1,1,N)), grey Fourier model (GFM(1,1,N)), seasonal grey model (SGM(1,1)), seasonal ARIMA model seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR).

Originality/value

The parameter estimates and forecasting of the new proposed TVGFM are studied, and the good fitting and forecasting accuracy of time-varying amplitude seasonal fluctuation series are testified by numerical simulations and a case study.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 April 2024

Zhanghuang Xie, Xiaomei Li, Dian Huang, Andrea Appolloni and Kan Fang

We consider a joint optimization problem of product platform design and scheduling on unrelated additive/subtractive hybrid machines, and seek to find efficient solution…

Abstract

Purpose

We consider a joint optimization problem of product platform design and scheduling on unrelated additive/subtractive hybrid machines, and seek to find efficient solution approaches to solve such problem.

Design/methodology/approach

We propose a mathematical formulation for the problem of simultaneous product platform design and scheduling on unrelated additive/subtractive hybrid machines, and develop a simulated annealing-based hyper-heuristic algorithm with adjustable operator sequence length to solve the problem.

Findings

The simulated annealing-based hyper-heuristic algorithm with adjustable operator sequence length (SAHH-osla) that we proposed can be quite efficient in solving the problem of simultaneous product platform design and scheduling on unrelated additive/subtractive hybrid machines.

Originality/value

To the best of our knowledge, we are one of the first to consider both cost-related and time-related criteria for the problem of simultaneous product platform design and scheduling on unrelated additive/subtractive hybrid machines.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

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