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The purpose of this paper is to examine the underpricing effect in Treasury auctions.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the underpricing effect in Treasury auctions.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper compares two winner's curse models using a dataset on multi‐unit auctions. The dataset is from Swedish Treasury auctions, which is under a discriminatory auction mechanism. One model is a single‐unit equilibrium model assuming that each bidder bids for 100 percent of the auctioned securities, which is described by Wilson and solved by Levin and Smith. The other model is a multi‐unit model calibrated by Goldreich using the US Treasury auctions data and assumes that each bidder bids for one unit of the auctioned securities.
Findings
The empirical results show that, although both models work well in predicting the bid‐shading, the multi‐unit model fits the Swedish Treasury auctions data better than the single‐unit model.
Research limitations/implications
The evidence implies that bidders rationally adjust their bids due to the winner's curse/champion's plague.
Originality/value
This study provides close quantitative predictions of the amount of bid‐shading using both single‐unit model of Wilson and multi‐unit model of Goldreich, and indicates that winner's curse or champion's plague worries bidders in countries other than the USA.
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This chapter studies the negative signals associated with nonpromotion. I first show theoretically that, when workers' productivity rises little with additional years on the same…
Abstract
This chapter studies the negative signals associated with nonpromotion. I first show theoretically that, when workers' productivity rises little with additional years on the same job level, the negative signal associated with nonpromotion leads to wage decreases. On the other hand, when additional job-level tenure leads to a sizable increase in productivity, workers' wages increase. I then test my model's predictions using the personnel records from a large US firm from 1970–1988. I find a clear hump-shaped wage-job-tenure profile for workers who stay at the same job level, which supports my model's prediction.
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Jaemin Kim, Kuntara Pukthuanthong‐Le and Thomas Walker
The extant literature on initial public offerings (IPOs) generally assumes that a high degree of pre‐IPO leverage serves as a positive signal of firm quality as it forces a firm's…
Abstract
Purpose
The extant literature on initial public offerings (IPOs) generally assumes that a high degree of pre‐IPO leverage serves as a positive signal of firm quality as it forces a firm's managers to adhere to tough budget constraints. The purpose of this paper is to question the validity of this assumption when it is indiscriminately applied to all firms, while other potentially important determinants of a firm's optimal capital structure are ignored. High‐tech versus low‐tech firms are specifically focused on.
Design/methodology/approach
Multivariate regression controlling is used for various firm and offer characteristics, market and industry returns, and potential endogeneity between investment bank rankings, price revisions, and under‐pricing.
Findings
It is found that debt only serves as a signal of better firm quality for low‐tech IPOs, as reflected in smaller price revisions and lower under‐pricing. For high‐tech IPOs, the effect of leverage is reversed: for these firms, higher leverage is associated with increased risk and uncertainty as reflected by higher price revisions and greater under‐pricing. The results remain significant after controlling for various firm variables as mentioned above.
Practical implications
The research results allow managers of high‐tech firms that contemplate going public to better understand the effect their company's capital structure will have on the pricing of their IPO. Prior research generally suggests that – irrespective of a firm's underlying characteristics – higher financial leverage results in lower under‐pricing. The findings highlight the falsity of this generalization and point out that it only holds for low‐tech firms. Firms that operate in a high‐tech sector, on the other hand, will leave less money on the table if they use equity rather than debt financing.
Originality/value
It is shown that leverage only serves as a positive signal for low‐tech firms. The IPOs of these firms generally undergo smaller price revisions and are less under‐priced than the IPOs of low‐tech firms that use little debt in their capital structure. While this result is consistent with earlier studies, it is show that the relationship between these variables reverses for high‐tech IPOs. Specifically, it is found that high‐tech IPOs with high leverage undergo larger price revisions and are more under‐priced than high‐tech firms with low leverage. In contrast to earlier findings, this suggests that for high‐tech IPOs, higher leverage implies increased ex‐ante uncertainty and risks.
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Kulabutr Komenkul and Dhanawat Siriwattanakul
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the characteristics of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) market, IPO underpricing and the long-run performance of IPOs and to find out…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the characteristics of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) market, IPO underpricing and the long-run performance of IPOs and to find out the ex ante difference in the market structure between the pre-, during and post-periods of the Unremunerated Reserve Requirement (URR) at the 30 per cent rate.
Design/methodology/approach
The sample is a total of 245 IPOs listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and the Market for Alternative Investment (mai), during the period 2001-2012. The explanatory variables consist of the age of the firm, the offer size, the time-lag between the IPO date and the first trading date, the proportion of shares owned by the government and the IPO subscription rates by foreign and institutional investors. In further analysis, the authors adopt a two-stage least squares approach to derive unbiased estimates of the relationship between government ownership, IPO underpricing and firm quality.
Findings
We find the ex ante uncertainty and earning management partially explain the IPO underpricing phenomenon in the Thai IPO market. Our findings support the impresario hypothesis shown by the negative relation between underpricing and the three-year after-market. In addition, the 30 per cent URR imposition by the Thai Central Bank promptly reduced the number of IPO issues and the proportion of foreigners and institutions subscribing to IPOs. However, it was able to enhance the degrees of IPO underpricing and the long-run performance of IPOs in Thailand.
Practical implications
The results presented in this paper may be, therefore, useful for investors, security analysts, companies and regulators in many other emerging markets beyond Thailand. Given the results from the over-performance of IPOs in the post-URR period, investors may do better holding Thai IPOs for a long period with a likelihood of gaining a higher return.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the literature concerning IPOs – in that we have considered two stock markets, namely, SET and mai. Furthermore, unique data such as the government ownership and proportion of IPOs subscribed by foreign and institutional investors are taken into consideration in our research model. To the best of our knowledge, for the first time in the Thai IPO market, the effect of the 30 per cent URR on IPO underpricing and the performance of IPOs in the long-run has been closely examined.
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Ashley Burrowes and Kevin Jones
This investigation into the performance of Initial Public Offerings on the new Alternative Investment Market reveals that the expected high level of underpricing, that is usually…
Abstract
This investigation into the performance of Initial Public Offerings on the new Alternative Investment Market reveals that the expected high level of underpricing, that is usually associated with the risky nature of small, young and growing companies, is not supported by the evidence in this study. Raw and market adjusted figures reveal that IPOs listed on AIM at the London Stock Exchange appear to be only conservatively mispriced when contrasted to main board IPO listings in the US, UK and other countries. Due diligence listing requirements could be offsetting the otherwise risky nature of these small, young and growing companies. Finally AIM is discussed in terms of meeting its own targets and its ability to attract international listings.
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Zakaria Boulanouar and Faisal Alqahtani
The purpose of this paper is to explore the existence of underpricing in the cooperative insurance sector in the Saudi Arabian market and to examine whether Sharia compliance…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore the existence of underpricing in the cooperative insurance sector in the Saudi Arabian market and to examine whether Sharia compliance requirements have an impact on the level of underpricing.
Design/methodology/approach
Underpricing and the effect of Sharia compliance are analysed using a comprehensive sample of 33 insurance companies with data collected between 2007 and 2013, after taking into account market movements, as well as some factors well-known in the literature.
Findings
The authors find that underpricing not only exists but also is among the highest in the world (455 per cent), which contradicts the literature on initial public offerings (IPOs)’ pricing in highly regulated sectors. In light of one of the other findings of the authors, namely, the small number of insurance underwriters, the authors attribute these very high levels of underpricing in part to the monopsony power of insurance underwriters in Saudi Arabia. Regarding the Sharia compliance effect, they find that it does not significantly reduce the underpricing of insurance offerings. The authors interpret this as the fact that Sharia status might not be taken into account by underwriters when they price the offerings of insurance companies, due to a major drawback in the implementing regulations of cooperative insurance which have been highly criticised by practitioners.
Research limitations/implications
Future research should try to include more factors that might explain the underpricing and its determinants. Two important recommendations flowing from this study for regulatory and supervisory institutions are the need to improve disclosure and transparency conditions and to work towards reducing the monopsony power enjoyed by the underwriters. As for Sharia effect, the Saudi central bank should resolve the issue of Sharia compliance by adopting one of the Sharia-friendly models suggested by Islamic finance scholars, such as wakala or mudaraba.
Originality/value
To the best of authors’ knowledge, this paper is among the first to offer empirical evidence of the impact of Sharia compliance on the initial return of the IPOs of cooperative insurance firms.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the online auction mechanism in the USA is more effective at pricing initial public offerings (IPOs) than the traditional book…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the online auction mechanism in the USA is more effective at pricing initial public offerings (IPOs) than the traditional book building process.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis compares the performance of online auction IPOs with traditional IPOs issued in the same industry area and in the same year to assess the differences in first day mispricing and its persistence. The paper compares the characteristics of firms choosing the auction process relative to the traditional process. It also uses regression models to examine whether online auction IPOs had a significantly lower first day price increase than traditional IPOs.
Findings
The results indicate that for 60 percent of the auction IPOs, over 40 percent of the traditional IPOs issued in that year and in that three‐digit Standard Industry Classification (SIC) area had greater mispricing. The mispricing of online auction IPOs relative to traditional IPOs persist over time for 50‐80 percent of online auction IPOs. Regression analyses controlling for industry effects, year effects, size of the issue, and type of traditional underwriter (low, medium, and high volume underwriters) suggest that the auction's first day price surges are not significantly lower than those of traditional underwriters. Moreover, high volume traditional underwriters have statistically significantly higher first day price surges than low volume traditional underwriters, supporting the theory that they intentionally misprice to benefit their preferred clients. Firms choosing the auction process tend to be smaller in terms of the number of shares of their IPO and their annual sales than firms choosing the traditional IPO process. There is some overlap in industry sector and age, although this varies by year.
Originality/value
This paper suggests that the auction process may not be as efficient in pricing IPOs as was initially intended and that there are opportunities for further innovation and improvement.
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Elena Fedorova, Sergei Druchok and Pavel Drogovoz
The goal of the study is to examine the effects of news sentiment and topics dominating in the news field prior to the initial public offering (IPO) on the IPO underpricing.
Abstract
Purpose
The goal of the study is to examine the effects of news sentiment and topics dominating in the news field prior to the initial public offering (IPO) on the IPO underpricing.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors’ approach has several steps. The first is textual analysis. To detect the dominating topics in the news, the authors use Latent Dirichlet allocation. The authors use bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT) pretrained on financial news corpus to evaluate the tonality of articles. The second is evaluation of feature importance. To this end, a linear regression with robust estimators and Classification and Regression Tree and Random Forest are used. The third is data. The text data consists of 345,731 news articles from Thomson Reuters related to the USA in the date range from 1 January 2011 to 31 May 2018. The data contains all the possible topics from the website, excluding anything related to sports. The sample of 386 initial public offerings completed in the USA from 1 January 2011 to 31 May 2018 was collected from Bloomberg Database.
Findings
The authors found that sentiment of the media regarding the companies going public influences IPO underpricing. Some topics, namely, the climate change and environmental policies and the trade war between the US and China, have influence on IPO underpricing if they appear in the media prior to the IPO day.
Originality/value
The puzzle of IPO underpricing is studied from the point of Narrative Economics theory for the first time. While most of the works cover only some specific news segment, we use Thomson Reuters news aggregator, which uses such sources The New York Post, CNN, Fox, Atlantic, The Washington Post ? Buzzfeed. To evaluate the sentiment of the articles, a state-of-the-art approach BERT is used. The hypothesis that some common narratives or topics in the public discussion may impose influence on such example of biased behaviour like IPO underpricing has also found confirmation.
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Many researchers suggest that investment bankers underprice IPOs. However, from 1989 to 1996, all Japanese IPOs were auctioned, reducing the role of underwriters. Initial returns…
Abstract
Many researchers suggest that investment bankers underprice IPOs. However, from 1989 to 1996, all Japanese IPOs were auctioned, reducing the role of underwriters. Initial returns of Japanese price-competitive IPOs are not found lower than underwriter-priced U.S. IPOs. Issue size, firm size, general market movements, insider sales levels, and underwriter quality are not highly related to initial returns under price-competitive auctions. However, there appears to be a strong partial adjustment phenomenon. Thus, price-competitive auctions did not result in significantly lower initial returns, but did reduce the impacts of many traditional variables found to significantly affect initial returns in U.S. underwriter-priced IPOs.
Ali Albada, Othman Yong and Soo-Wah Low
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether initial public offering (IPO) over-subscription is a function of firm’s prestige signals conveyed by third parties with…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether initial public offering (IPO) over-subscription is a function of firm’s prestige signals conveyed by third parties with reputational capital such as underwriter, auditor and independent non-executive board member.
Design/methodology/approach
The relationship between prestige signals and over-subscription ratio (OSR) of IPOs is analysed using a cross-sectional regression based on a sample of 393 IPOs issued between January 2000 and December 2015.
Findings
The results indicate that IPOs underwritten by reputable underwriters have lower OSR than those underwritten by non-reputable underwriters. While issuer engages reputable underwriter to certify firm quality to reduce information asymmetry, the action brings with it lower initial returns for its IPO. Investors interpret the signal conveyed by issuer’s choice of underwriter from under-pricing perspective and respond accordingly by reducing IPO demand. This implies that investors regard under-pricing as a more valuable signal than firm quality signal associated with underwriter reputation. The findings also indicate that over-subscription increases in IPOs that have above average initial returns and higher institutional participation. Issuing firms that go public in a period of high IPO volume are associated with low OSR.
Originality/value
This is the first paper to examine the relationship between the prestige signals and OSR of IPOs in the Malaysian context.
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