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This survey explores the application of real options theory to the field of health economics. The integration of options theory offers a valuable framework to address these challenges, providing insights into healthcare investments, policy analysis and patient care pathways.

This research employs the real options theory, a financial concept, to delve into health economics challenges. Through a systematic approach, three distinct models rooted in this theory are crafted and analyzed. Firstly, the study examines the value of investing in emerging health technology, factoring in future advantages, associated costs and unpredictability. The second model is patient-centric, evaluating the choice between immediate treatment switch and waiting for more clarity, while also weighing the associated risks. Lastly, the research assesses pandemic-related government policies, emphasizing the importance of delaying decisions in the face of uncertainties, thereby promoting data-driven policymaking.

Three different real options models are presented in this study to illustrate their applicability and value in aiding decision-makers. (1) The first evaluates investments in new technology, analyzing future benefits, discount rates and benefit volatility to determine investment value. (2) In the second model, a patient has the option of switching treatments now or waiting for more information before optimally switching treatments. However, waiting has its risks, such as disease progression. By modeling the potential benefits and risks of both options, and factoring in the time value, this model aids doctors and patients in making informed decisions based on a quantified assessment of potential outcomes. (3) The third model concerns pandemic policy: governments can end or prolong lockdowns. While awaiting more data on the virus might lead to economic and societal strain, the model emphasizes the economic value of deferring decisions under uncertainty.

This research provides a quantified perspective on various decisions in healthcare, from investments in new technology to treatment choices for patients to government decisions regarding pandemics. By applying real options theory, stakeholders can make more evidence-driven decisions.

Decisions about patient care pathways and pandemic policies have direct societal implications. For instance, choices regarding the prolongation or ending of lockdowns can lead to economic and societal strain.

The originality of this study lies in its application of real options theory, a concept from finance, to the realm of health economics, offering novel insights and analytical tools for decision-makers in the healthcare sector.

Rolling element bearings (REBs) are commonly used in rotating machinery such as pumps, motors, fans and other machineries. The REBs deteriorate over life cycle time. To know the amount of deteriorate at any time, this paper aims to present a prognostics approach based on integrating optimize health indicator (OHI) and machine learning algorithm.

Proposed optimum prediction model would be used to evaluate the remaining useful life (RUL) of REBs. Initially, signal raw data are preprocessing through mother wavelet transform; after that, the primary fault features are extracted. Further, these features process to elevate the clarity of features using the random forest algorithm. Based on variable importance of features, the best representation of fault features is selected. Optimize the selected feature by adjusting weight vector using optimization techniques such as genetic algorithm (GA), sequential quadratic optimization (SQO) and multiobjective optimization (MOO). New OHIs are determined and apply to train the network. Finally, optimum predictive models are developed by integrating OHI and artificial neural network (ANN), K-mean clustering (KMC) (i.e. OHI–GA–ANN, OHI–SQO–ANN, OHI–MOO–ANN, OHI–GA–KMC, OHI–SQO–KMC and OHI–MOO–KMC).

Optimum prediction models performance are recorded and compared with the actual value. Finally, based on error term values best optimum prediction model is proposed for evaluation of RUL of REBs.

Proposed OHI–GA–KMC model is compared in terms of error values with previously published work. RUL predicted by OHI–GA–KMC model is smaller, giving the advantage of this method.

This paper aims to develop a dynamic civil facility degradation prediction model to forecast the reliability performance tendency and remaining useful life under imperfect maintenance based on the inspection records and the maintenance actions.

A real-time hidden Markov chain (HMM) model is proposed in this paper to predict the reliability performance tendency and remaining useful life under imperfect maintenance based on rare failure events. The model assumes a Poisson arrival pattern for facility failure events occurrence. HMM is further adopted to establish the transmission probabilities among stages. Finally, the simulation inference is conducted using Particle filter (PF) to estimate the most probable model parameters. Water seals at the spillway hydraulic gate in a Taiwan's reservoir are used to examine the appropriateness of the approach.

The results of defect probabilities tendency from the real-time HMM model are highly consistent with the real defect trend pattern of civil facilities. The proposed facility degradation prediction model can provide the maintenance division with early warning of potential failure to establish a proper proactive maintenance plan, even under the condition of rare defects.

This model is a new method of civil facility degradation prediction under imperfect maintenance, even with rare failure events. It overcomes several limitations of classical failure pattern prediction approaches and can reliably simulate the occurrence of rare defects under imperfect maintenance and the effect of inspection reliability caused by human error. Based on the degradation trend pattern prediction, effective maintenance management plans can be practically implemented to minimize the frequency of the occurrence and the consequence of civil facility failures.

This study aims to address the critical need for innovative financing solutions in the global housing sector, focusing specifically on Malaysia’s distinct housing finance system encompassing both conventional and Islamic loans. The primary objective is to develop a transformative housing finance model that addresses affordability challenges and reshapes the Malaysian housing landscape.

The study presents an alternate housing finance model for Malaysia, integrating lower monthly payments and reduced household debt. Key variables include house price appreciation rates, interest rates, initial guarantee fees and loan-to-value ratios. Inspired by the Help to Buy (HTB) scheme, the model aligns with proven global initiatives for enhanced affordability, balancing payment amounts, loan interest rates and acceptable price thresholds.

The study’s findings promise to address affordability disparities and reshape Malaysia’s housing finance landscape. The emphasis is on introducing a structured repayment plan that offers a sustainable path to homeownership, particularly for low-income families. Incorporating the future value adaptation concept, inspired by reverse mortgages and Islamic finance, enhances adaptability, ensuring long-term sustainability despite economic shifts.

The proposed model promotes widespread access to homeownership, offering practical solutions for policymakers to improve affordability, prompting adaptable risk management strategies for financial institutions and empowering potential homebuyers with increased flexibility.

The study introduces a transformative housing finance model for Malaysia, merging elements from reverse mortgages, Islamic finance and the HTB scheme, offering potential applicability to similar systems globally.

This study aims to predict overnight stays in Italy at tourist accommodation facilities through a nonlinear, single factor, stochastic model called CIR#. The contribution of this study is twofold: in terms of forecast accuracy and in terms of parsimony (both from the perspective of the data and the complexity of the modeling), especially when a regular pattern in the time series is disrupted. This study shows that the CIR# not only performs better than the considered baseline models but also has a much lower error than other additional models or approaches reported in the literature.

Typically, tourism demand tends to follow regular trends, such as low and high seasons on a quarterly/monthly level and weekends and holidays on a daily level. The data set consists of nights spent in Italy at tourist accommodation establishments as collected on a monthly basis by Eurostat before and during the COVID-19 pandemic breaking regular patterns.

Traditional tourism demand forecasting models may face challenges when massive amounts of search intensity indices are adopted as tourism demand indicators. In addition, given the importance of accurate forecasts, many studies have proposed novel hybrid models or used various combinations of methods. Thus, although there are clear benefits in adopting more complex approaches, the risk is that of dealing with unwieldy models. To demonstrate how this approach can be fruitfully extended to tourism, the accuracy of the CIR# is tested by using standard metrics such as root mean squared errors, mean absolute errors, mean absolute percentage error or average relative mean squared error.

The CIR# model is notably simpler than other models found in literature and does not rely on black box techniques such as those used in neural network (NN) or data science-based models. The carried analysis suggests that the CIR# model outperforms other reference predictions in terms of statistical significance of the error.

The proposed model stands out for being a viable option to the Holt–Winters (HW) model, particularly when dealing with irregular data.

The proposed model has demonstrated superiority even when compared to other models in the literature, and it can be especially useful for tourism stakeholders when making decisions in the presence of disruptions in data patterns.

The novelty lies in the fact that the proposed model is a valid alternative to the HW, especially when the data are not regular. In addition, compared to many existing models in the literature, the CIR# model is notably simpler and more transparent, avoiding the “black box” nature of NN and data science-based models.

一般来说, 旅游需求往往遵循规律的趋势, 例如季度/月的淡季和旺季, 以及日常的周末和假期。该数据集包括欧盟统计局在打破常规模式的2019冠状病毒病大流行之前和期间每月收集的在意大利旅游住宿设施度过的夜晚。

本研究旨在通过一个名为cir#的非线性单因素随机模型来预测意大利游客住宿设施的过夜住宿情况。这项研究的贡献是双重的:在预测准确性方面和在简洁方面(从数据和建模复杂性的角度来看), 特别是当时间序列中的规则模式被打乱时。我们表明, cir#不仅比考虑的基线模型表现更好, 而且比文献中报告的其他模型或方法具有更低的误差。

当大量搜索强度指标被作为旅游需求指标时, 传统的旅游需求预测模型将面临挑战。此外, 鉴于准确预测的重要性, 许多研究提出了新的混合模型或使用各种方法的组合。因此, 尽管采用更复杂的方法有明显的好处, 但风险在于处理难使用的模型。为了证明这种方法能有效地扩展到旅游业, 使用RMSE、MAE、MAPE或AvgReIMSE等标准指标来测试cir#的准确性。

cir#模型明显比文献中发现的其他模型简单, 并且不依赖于黑盒技术, 例如在神经网络或基于数据科学的模型中使用的技术。所进行的分析表明, cir#模型在误差的统计显著性方面优于其他参考预测。

这个模型作为Holt-Winters模型的一个拟议模型, 特别是在处理不规则数据时。

即使与文献中的其他模型相比, 所提出的模型也显示出优越性, 并且在数据模式中断时对旅游利益相关者做出决策特别有用。

创新之处在于所提出的模型是Holt-Winters模型的有效替代方案, 特别是当数据不规律时。此外, 与文献中的许多现有模型相比, cir#模型明显更简单、更透明, 避免了神经网络和基于数据科学的模型的“黑箱”性质。

Normalmente, la demanda turística tiende a seguir tendencias regulares, como temporadas altas y bajas a nivel trimestral/mensual y fines de semana y festivos a nivel diario. El conjunto de datos consiste en las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico recogidas mensualmente por Eurostat antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19, rompiendo los patrones regulares.

El presente estudio pretende predecir las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico mediante un modelo estocástico no lineal de un solo factor denominado CIR#. La contribución de este estudio es doble: en términos de precisión de la predicción y en términos de parsimonia (tanto desde la perspectiva de los datos como de la complejidad de la modelización), especialmente cuando un patrón regular en la serie temporal se ve interrumpido. Demostramos que el CIR# no sólo aplica mejor que los modelos de referencia considerados, sino que también tiene un error mucho menor que otros modelos o enfoques adicionales de los que se informa en la literatura.

Los modelos tradicionales de previsión de la demanda turística pueden enfrentarse a desafíos cuando se adoptan cantidades masivas de índices de intensidad de búsqueda como indicadores de la demanda turística. Además, dada la importancia de unas previsiones precisas, muchos estudios han propuesto modelos híbridos novedosos o han utilizado diversas combinaciones de métodos. Así pues, aunque la adopción de enfoques más complejos presenta ventajas evidentes, el riesgo es el de enfrentarse a modelos poco manejables. Para demostrar cómo este enfoque puede extenderse de forma fructífera al turismo, se comprueba la precisión del CIR# utilizando métricas estándar como RMSE, MAE, MAPE o AvgReIMSE.

El modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo que otros modelos encontrados en la literatura y no se basa en técnicas de caja negra como las utilizadas en los modelos basados en redes neuronales o en la ciencia de datos. El análisis realizado sugiere que el modelo CIR# supera a otras predicciones de referencia en términos de significación estadística del error.

El modelo propuesto destaca por ser una opción viable al modelo Holt-Winters, sobre todo cuando se trata de datos irregulares.

El modelo propuesto ha demostrado su superioridad incluso cuando se compara con otros modelos de la bibliografía, y puede ser especialmente útil para los agentes del sector turístico a la hora de tomar decisiones cuando se producen alteraciones en los patrones de datos.

La novedad radica en que el modelo propuesto es una alternativa válida al Holt-Winters especialmente cuando los datos no son regulares. Además, en comparación con muchos modelos existentes en la literatura, el modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo y transparente, evitando la naturaleza de “caja negra” de los modelos basados en redes neuronales y en ciencia de datos.

The purpose of this study is to analyse and compile the literature on various option pricing models (OPM) or methodologies. The report highlights the gaps in the existing literature review and builds recommendations for potential scholars interested in the subject area.

In this study, the researchers used a systematic literature review procedure to collect data from Scopus. Bibliometric and structured network analyses were used to examine the bibliometric properties of 864 research documents.

As per the findings of the study, publication in the field has been increasing at a rate of 6% on average. This study also includes a list of the most influential and productive researchers, frequently used keywords and primary publications in this subject area. In particular, Thematic map and Sankey’s diagram for conceptual structure and for intellectual structure co-citation analysis and bibliographic coupling were used.

Based on the conclusion presented in this paper, there are several potential implications for research, practice and society.

This study provides useful insights for future research in the area of OPM in financial derivatives. Researchers can focus on impactful authors, significant work and productive countries and identify potential collaborators. The study also highlights the commonly used OPMs and emerging themes like machine learning and deep neural network models, which can inform practitioners about new developments in the field and guide the development of new models to address existing limitations.

The accurate pricing of financial derivatives has significant implications for society, as it can impact the stability of financial markets and the wider economy. The findings of this study, which identify the most commonly used OPMs and emerging themes, can help improve the accuracy of pricing and risk management in the financial derivatives sector, which can ultimately benefit society as a whole.

It is possibly the initial effort to consolidate the literature on calibration on option price by evaluating and analysing alternative OPM applied by researchers to guide future research in the right direction.

In the context of a developing country, Indian buildings need further research to channelize energy needs optimally to reduce energy wastage, thereby reducing carbon emissions. Also, reduction in smart devices’ costs with sequential advancements in Information and Communication Technology have resulted in an environment where model predictive control (MPC) strategies can be easily implemented. This study aims to propose certain preemptive measures to minimize the energy costs, while ensuring the thermal comfort for occupants, resulting in better greener solutions for building structures.

A simulation-based multi-input multi-output MPC strategy has been proposed. A dual objective function involving optimized energy consumption with acceptable thermal comfort has been achieved through simultaneous control of indoor temperature, humidity and illumination using various control variables. A regression-based lighting model and seasonal auto-regressive moving average with exogenous inputs (SARMAX) based temperature and humidity models have been chosen as predictor models along with four different control levels incorporated.

The mathematical approach in this study maintains an optimum tradeoff between energy cost savings and satisfactory occupants’ comfort levels. The proposed control mechanism establishes the relationships of output variables with respect to control and disturbance variables. The SARMAX and regression-based predictor models are found to be the best fit models in terms of accuracy, stability and superior performance. By adopting the proposed methodology, significant energy savings can be accomplished during certain hours of the day.

This study has been done on a specific corporate entity and future analysis can be done on other corporate or residential buildings and in other geographical settings within India. Inclusion of sensitivity analysis and non-linear predictor models is another area of future scope.

This study presents a dynamic MPC strategy, using five disturbance variables which further improves the overall performance and accuracy. In contrast to previous studies on MPC, SARMAX model has been used in this study, which is a novel contribution to the theoretical literature. Four levels of control zones: pre-cooling, strict, mild and loose zones have been used in the calculations to keep the Predictive Mean Vote index within acceptable threshold limits.

This study aims to focus on the main materials used in consolidation processes of illuminated paper manuscripts and leather binding.

For each material, chemical structure, chemical composition, molecular formula, solubility, advantages, disadvantages and its role in treatment process are presented.

This study concluded that carboxy methyl cellulose, hydroxy propyl cellulose, methyl cellulose, cellulose acetate, nanocrystalline cellulose, funori, sturgeon glue, poly vinyl alcohol, chitosan, chitosan nanoparticles (NPs), gelatin, aquazol, paraloid B72 and hydroxyapatite NPs were the most common and important materials used for the consolidation of illuminated paper manuscripts. For the leather bindings, hydroxy propyl cellulose, polyethylene glycol, oligomeric melamine-formaldehyde resin, acrylic wax SC6000, pliantex, paraloid B67 and B72, silicone oil and collagen NPs are the most consolidants used.

Illuminated paper manuscripts with leather binding are considered one of the most important objects in libraries, museums and storehouses. The uncontrolled conditions and other deterioration factors inside the libraries and storehouses lead to degradation of these artifacts. The brittleness, fragility and weakness are considered the most common deterioration aspects of illuminated paper manuscripts and leather binding. Therefore, the consolidation process became vital and important to solve this problem. This study presents the main materials used for consolidation process of illuminated paper manuscripts and leather bindings.

Joint research is pointed out by the literature as a potentially virtuous cooperation scheme to generate learning in the public sphere and beneficial effects in society. The purpose of this study, based on the Argentine experience in the COVID-19 pandemic, is to analyze the network of capacities, relationships and effects generated, over time, by a series of projects financed by the State in 2010, to clarify the link between learning effects and social effects.

A qualitative methodology focused on the multiple case study method was used. Each case covers joint R&D projects financed 10 years ago by the state that subsequently led to different solutions for COVID-19.

The work identifies a public learning process that integrates both industry’s contributions and the intellectual dimension of economic benefits and their translation into specific capabilities; conceptualizes the capacities accumulation process as a multiplier of social effects (direct and indirect) that emerge as knowledge is reused; identifies the articulation between different schemes as a condition for learning effects and social effects to manifest over time.

An aspect not studied in the literature is addressed, the relationship between the learning process induced by joint research, in terms of capabilities, and the social effects specifically generated over time. This is taking place in a context, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, where calls from the scientific and academic community to promote science–industry cooperation are multiplying.