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The establishment of a currency union is a topical issue in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). The subject of currency union formation needs to be reassessed in light of the recent efforts towards the economic integration of west African countries. This study employs the Markov Switching Model (MSM) to determine whether a currency union in WAMZ is feasible. The study analyzes the regime switching behavior in WAMZ countries’ foreign exchange markets before and after the formation of the union. The contribution of this study is two-fold. First, the study accounts for the success or otherwise of the latest efforts to integrate the fiscal and monetary strategies in the zone. Secondly, the study contributes to the literature on the currency union literature in WAMZ by using Markov Switching Model (MSM) to generate novel results. The results of the study revealed that prior to the WAMZ formation, the real exchange rates of member states were more divergent. In contrast, a growing but marginal, convergence was observed after the formation of the zone amongst four (Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Gambia, and Liberia) of the six countries. The authors conclude that while WAMZ is on course for establishing a currency union, their monetary authorities must work together, particularly with Ghana and Liberia, to synchronize their policy efforts, and policy makers must implement policies to strengthen harmonious trade interactions.

This chapter aims to demonstrate how the colonial legacy in general, and in its monetary area in particular, has been one of the major obstacles to African countries' ability to mobilize financial resources for their development. In fact, the monetary systems inherited from colonialism serve as an instrument to plunder African resources and extract surplus for capital accumulation in former colonial powers. One of the best examples is found in the relationships between France and its former colonies in West and Central Africa. The monetary system imposed on those countries is essentially perpetuating the Colonial Pact, under which the role of the colonies is to serve the political, economic, and strategic interests of the colonial power. For African countries, the monetary arrangement, illustrated by the use of CFA franc as their currency, has been a major obstacle to capital accumulation, productive capacity building and effective structural transformation of their economies. Unless African countries break free from the CFA monetary system and reclaim their sovereignty, there will be no development. The struggle for monetary sovereignty in former French colonies is now part of a broader continental struggle to reclaim Africa's sovereignty over its resources and the formulation of its development policies.

The creation and growth of economic integration as an area of economics is the result primarily of practical rather than academic interest. Although economic nationalism and antagonism still prevail as the basic form of world economic order, economic history presents us with specific examples and ambitious plans of economic co‐operation and integration. The example of the US is often cited as a classic case study in economic integration. Viner presented a detailed list of conventions, decrees, etc., concerning customs unions. The French Declaration of May 9, 1950, which led to the formation of the European Coal and Steel Community, manifested for the first time the willingness of a government to overcome old antagonisms and to adopt a programme for European integration. The Treaty of Rome and the establishment of the European Economic Community is another example of the trend towards economic integration among industrialised countries of the West, while COMECON is the primary integration attempt by various centrally planned economies of the Soviet bloc. With respect to less developed countries, the world has experienced a number of ambitious schemes such as the Latin America Free Trade Association, the Central American Common Market, the East African Community, the West African Association, the South African Customs Union, the Arab Common Market, the Southeast Asia Economic Treaty, the Andean Common Market, the Carribean Community and others.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship among fiscal variables (net lending, government expenditure and revenue) and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries.

Using yearly data for the period between 1980 and 2011 in 15 Economic Communities Of West African States (ECOWAS) countries, the relationship among fiscal variables, economic growth and trade is investigated, through various econometric techniques.

Government expenditure and revenue show pro-cyclical effects in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and ECOWAS countries, while fiscal balance has a pro-cyclical nature for WAEMU during the years 1999-2011. Moreover, a weak long-run relationship between government expenditure and revenue emerge, but only in the case of West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries. Granger causality analysis showed mixed results for WAEMU countries, while for four out of six WAMZ countries (Gambia, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone) the “tax-and-spend” hypothesis holds, since government revenue would drive the expenditure. Finally, in the last three decades, cyclical component of economic growth has reduced its fluctuations, both for WAEMU and WAMZ member States.

This is the first study on the effects of fiscal policies in the ECOWAS countries.

This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1.

This paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries.

Findings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform.

The paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union.

The paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the welfare gains from risk sharing among African countries and regional groupings in Africa that are planning to establish monetary unions either in the short or longrun.

The paper empirically tested two hypothesis; potential welfare gains and unexploited welfare gains. It uses a utility-based measure to quantify the gains that would accrue from joining a risk sharing arrangement such as a monetary union. The regional groupings considered include the African Union (AU), the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS), the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East African Community (EAC).

The results provide support for both hypotheses. Overall, the average potential welfare for AU, EAC, ECOWAS and SADC groups under full risk sharing are found to be 1.9, 2, 3.4 and 1.6 percent, respectively, each higher than the 1 percent estimated for the OECD countries and 0.6 percent for the 14-EU countries. The average unexploited gains are, however, even bigger for AU at 3.5 percent, ECOWAS at 8.6 percent and for SADC at 2.6 percent.

The finding of enormous potential welfare gains could partly reinforce the desire of the African countries to establish monetary unions. On the other hand, the paper provides insights to policy makers in designing policies to promote risk sharing given the finding that the unexploited welfare gains are on average still too low – implying that many African countries or groups still have very low risk sharing.

Previous studies on welfare gains and risk sharing have basically left out the African regional groupings and never related the issue of gains to the monetary union projects. Besides, previous studies focus on unexploited welfare gains at the expense of total potential welfare gains. Considering the two types, however, presents a more complete picture of total gains from joining any risk sharing arrangement such as a monetary union.

A spectre is hunting embryonic African monetary zones: the European Monetary Union crisis. The purpose of this paper is to assess real, monetary and fiscal policy convergence within the proposed WAM and EAM zones. The introduction of common currencies in West and East Africa is facing stiff challenges in the timing of monetary convergence, the imperative of central bankers to apply common modeling and forecasting methods of monetary policy transmission, as well as the requirements of common structural and institutional characteristics among candidate states.

In the analysis: monetary policy targets inflation and financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size; real sector policy targets economic performance in terms of GDP growth at macro and micro levels; while, fiscal policy targets debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios. A dynamic panel GMM estimation with data from different non-overlapping intervals is employed. The implied rate of convergence and the time required to achieve full (100 percent) convergence are then computed from the estimations.

Findings suggest overwhelming lack of convergence: initial conditions for financial development are different across countries; fundamental characteristics as common monetary policy initiatives and IMF-backed financial reform programs are implemented differently across countries; there is remarkable evidence of cross-country variations in structural characteristics of macroeconomic performance; institutional cross-country differences could also be responsible for the deficiency in convergence within the potential monetary zones; absence of fiscal policy convergence and no potential for eliminating idiosyncratic fiscal shocks due to business cycle incoherence.

As a policy implication, heterogeneous structural and institutional characteristics across countries are giving rise to different levels and patterns of financial intermediary development. Thus, member states should work towards harmonizing cross-country differences in structural and institutional characteristics that hamper the effectiveness of convergence in monetary, real and fiscal policies. This could be done by stringently monitoring the implementation of existing common initiatives and/or the adoption of new reforms programs.

It is one of the few attempts to investigate the issue of convergence within the proposed WAM and EAM unions.

We examine how the degree of regional financial integration in African stock markets has evolved over the last eleven years. Despite increasing regional economic cooperation, the process of stock market integration has been slow. To facilitate growth via developed financial markets but keep financial stability risk at a minimum, further regional integration should be promoted, and mild capital controls on non-African investors may be necessary. A Diebold-Yilmaz spillover analysis is applied to ten African stock markets for the period between August 2004 and January 2015. We examine spillovers among four regions and among individual countries. Regional integration, as measured by total spillovers in Africa, is increasing but remains very low. These spillovers were temporarily heightened during the global financial crisis. Cross-regional spillovers are high between Northern and Southern Africa. Asymmetric capital controls on African and non-African investors must be considered to foster further regional integration and to mitigate financial stability risk. This is one of the few studies to address the construction of the future architecture of regionally integrated stock markets in emerging countries.

For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework.

This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates.

The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification.

The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures.

This paper aims to examine the response of monetary policy to financial instability in the West African Economic and Monetary Union.

Through annual aggregated data from 1970 to 2019, the empirical strategy is based on the Markov regime-switching model with fixed probabilities.

The results revealed that the monetary policy of the central bank of the West African Economic and Monetary Union is characterized by two regimes (calm and distress) with respect to the trend of financial stability. The authors also found that the occurrence of the calm regime was likely greater than that of the distress regime. In addition, the calm regime is longer than the distress regime. The authors finally revealed that the central bank reacts to financial instability risk by increasing its short-term interest rate when financial instability reaches a threshold.

The limitation of this study is the unavailability of monthly or quarterly data that are more suitable for the methodological approach adopted.

This study is the one to estimate the response of the Central Bank of West African Countries to financial stress using a novel approach based on the Markov-Switching regression.