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Article
Publication date: 21 October 2019

Xiaoquan Chu, Yue Li, Dong Tian, Jianying Feng and Weisong Mu

The purpose of this paper is to propose an optimized hybrid model based on artificial intelligence methods, use the method of time series forecasting, to deal with the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose an optimized hybrid model based on artificial intelligence methods, use the method of time series forecasting, to deal with the price prediction issue of China’s table grape.

Design/methodology/approach

The approaches follows the framework of “decomposition and ensemble,” using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to optimize the conventional price forecasting methods, and, integrating the multiple linear regression and support vector machine to build a hybrid model which could be applied in solving price series predicting problems.

Findings

The proposed EEMD-ADD optimized hybrid model is validated to be considered satisfactory in a case of China’ grape price forecasting in terms of its statistical measures and prediction performance.

Practical implications

This study would resolve the difficulties in grape price forecasting and provides an adaptive strategy for other agricultural economic predicting problems as well.

Originality/value

The paper fills the vacancy of concerning researches, proposes an optimized hybrid model integrating both classical econometric and artificial intelligence models to forecast price using time series method.

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Article
Publication date: 24 October 2019

Xiaoquan Chu, Yue Li, Yimeng Xie, Dong Tian and Weisong Mu

The purpose of this paper is to provide further insight into Chinese wine consumers’ preference, grasp the regional sensory preference differences of China and build up a…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide further insight into Chinese wine consumers’ preference, grasp the regional sensory preference differences of China and build up a predictive model for wine consumers’ sensory preferences.

Design/methodology/approach

The study involved 3,421 Chinese wine consumers in the survey. Classified statistics were conducted to excavate regional differences of wine consumers’ sensory preferences. By analyzing influencing factors, prediction models for consumers’ sensory attribute preferences were constructed on the basis of multivariate disorder logistic regression method.

Findings

Empirical research showed that the wine with the following sensory attributes was the most preferred by Chinese consumers: dry red, refreshing and soft taste, still type, moderate aroma degree and mellow aroma, and sweet wine was also popular. Consumers’ preference varied from region to region. The proposed predicting method of the study realized more than 70 percent accuracy when conducting prediction for color, sweetness, aroma type and flavor preferences.

Social implications

By shedding light on the latest sensory attribute preferences of Chinese wine consumers, this study will help wine industry participants conduct market segmentation based on the diversification of consumers’ preferences. The wine enterprises can gain guidance from the results to conduct market positioning, adjust strategies and provide specific production for target wine consumers.

Originality/value

Based on the actual situation of Chinese wine market, this study defines sensory attribute indexes of wine from the perspective of wine consumers and presents the most recent comprehensive research on the sensory preferences of Chinese wine consumers through a nationwide survey.

Details

British Food Journal, vol. 122 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0007-070X

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 27 March 2020

Luyao Wang, Jianying Feng, Xiaojie Sui, Xiaoquan Chu and Weisong Mu

The purpose of this paper is to provide reference for researchers by reviewing the research advances and trend of agricultural product price forecasting methods in recent years.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide reference for researchers by reviewing the research advances and trend of agricultural product price forecasting methods in recent years.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper reviews the main research methods and their application of forecasting of agricultural product prices, summarizes the application examples of common forecasting methods, and prospects the future research directions.

Findings

1) It is the trend to use hybrid models to predict agricultural products prices in the future research; 2) the application of the prediction model based on price influencing factors should be further expanded in the future research; 3) the performance of the model should be evaluated based on DS rather than just error-based metrics in the future research; 4) seasonal adjustment models can be applied to the difficult seasonal forecasting tasks in the agriculture product prices in the future research; 5) hybrid optimization algorithm can be used to improve the prediction performance of the model in the future research.

Originality/value

The methods from this paper can provide reference for researchers, and the research trends proposed at the end of this paper can provide solutions or new research directions for relevant researchers.

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Article
Publication date: 2 October 2019

Yue Li, Xiaoquan Chu, Zetian Fu, Jianying Feng and Weisong Mu

The purpose of this paper is to develop a common remaining shelf life prediction model that is generally applicable for postharvest table grape using an optimized radial…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop a common remaining shelf life prediction model that is generally applicable for postharvest table grape using an optimized radial basis function (RBF) neural network to achieve more accurate prediction than the current shelf life (SL) prediction methods.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the final indicators (storage temperature, relative humidity, sensory average score, peel hardness, soluble solids content, weight loss rate, rotting rate, fragmentation rate and color difference) affecting SL were determined by the correlation and significance analysis. Then using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate the weight of each indicator and determine the end of SL under different storage conditions. Subsequently, the structure of the RBF network redesigned was 9-11-1. Ultimately, the membership degree of Fuzzy clustering (fuzzy c-means) was adopted to optimize the center and width of the RBF network by using the training data.

Findings

The results show that this method has the highest prediction accuracy compared to the current the kinetic–Arrhenius model, back propagation (BP) network and RBF network. The maximum absolute error is 1.877, the maximum relative error (RE) is 0.184, and the adjusted R2 is 0.911. The prediction accuracy of the kinetic–Arrhenius model is the worst. The RBF network has a better prediction accuracy than the BP network. For robustness, the adjusted R2 are 0.853 and 0.886 of Italian grape and Red Globe grape, respectively, and the fitting degree are the highest among all methods, which proves that the optimized method is applicable for accurate SL prediction of different table grape varieties.

Originality/value

This study not only provides a new way for the prediction of SL of different grape varieties, but also provides a reference for the quality and safety management of table grape during storage. Maybe it has a further research significance for the application of RBF neural network in the SL prediction of other fresh foods.

Details

British Food Journal, vol. 121 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0007-070X

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 15 March 2016

Lei Deng, Ruimei Wang, Tian Dong, Jianying Feng and Mu Weisong

The paper aims to understand the cost-benefits, financial performance and relationships of the key actors in the table grape supply chain by using value chain analysis method.

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to understand the cost-benefits, financial performance and relationships of the key actors in the table grape supply chain by using value chain analysis method.

Design/methodology/approach

This study presents the result of analysis on financial performance of key actors in three table grape supply chains and the relationship among them using value chain analysis. The table grape supply chain was analyzed using data collected from a field survey in 5 regions of China. The key actors of these chains were interviewed. The costs, benefits, operational and financial performance of supply chain actors were analyzed.

Findings

The results show that, despite receiving the highest proportion of total net profit and making the highest value creation, vinegrowers are facing fluctuant and uncertain commercial returns due to the production and market risks, fluctuation of farm-gate price and the buyer dominant relationship with wholesalers. Moreover, although it is profitable to all key actors, table grape supply chain still faces several challenges including unorganized and dispersed production systems, power asymmetry and lack of information sharing, all of which are the barriers to the improvement of the whole chain performance and the long term sustainability of this important industry.

Originality/value

This paper not only helps to understand the relationship among the key actors and the critical factors impacting on the whole chain performance, but also offer useful guidance for the policy makers and key actors to achieve further improvement of the table grape supply chain performance and provide valuable implications for the future studies on agriculture products.

Details

British Food Journal, vol. 118 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0007-070X

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Article
Publication date: 4 January 2016

Mu Weisong, Li Chengcheng, Tian Dong and Feng Jianying

The purpose of this paper is to analyze and identify Chinese consumers’ behavior and preference characters toward table grapes, especially to explore the variance of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze and identify Chinese consumers’ behavior and preference characters toward table grapes, especially to explore the variance of consumption preference in recent five years.

Design/methodology/approach

Two representative China-wide questionnaire surveys were conducted by face-to-face and online questionnaire survey, respectively, in 2009 and 2014. Comparative study was adopted to dig the changes of consumers’ preferences and habits. ANOVA was adopted to explore the statistically difference among consumers’ behavior and preferences.

Findings

The results indicate that Chinese consumers are rational-motivation-driven grape consumers, they prefer to sweet taste, seedless and medium priced grapes. Safety and quality characters (clean appearance, freshness and taste) were ranked as the most important grape attributes. As a whole, it was found that consumers are more quality-focussed and safety-conscious five years later, so some variances was showed in their purchase habits and preferences, such as the choice of purchase place, attitude to special grapes and willingness to pay to safe and genetically modified grapes.

Originality/value

This research not only indicates some stable preferences of Chinese consumers toward table grape, but also finds out some significant changes in consumers’ behavior before and after five years based on a comparative study in 2009 and 2014.

Details

British Food Journal, vol. 118 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0007-070X

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 19 October 2012

Huiru Feng, Jianying Feng, Dong Tian and Weisong Mu

Chinese consumers have increased their consumption of grape products in recent years due to recognition of the nutritional value of grapes. At the same time, consumers are…

Abstract

Purpose

Chinese consumers have increased their consumption of grape products in recent years due to recognition of the nutritional value of grapes. At the same time, consumers are paying more attention to food safety because of the occasional occurrence of food safety scares. Based on a survey of consumers in Zhejiang, China, this paper aims to understand and provide information on consumers' perceptions of quality and safety for grape products, purchasing behavior, and willingness to pay (WTP) for grape products.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper presents the results of empirical research. The survey method was a direct (face‐to‐face) interview based on a standardized questionnaire. Consumers' perceptions of the quality and safety of grape products were examined, together with consumers' demographic characteristics.

Findings

The results indicate that quality and safety, rather than price, are considered the most important factors that affect consumers' purchasing decisions for grape products. Consumer's educational level, the average price of grapes and the perception of safety are the main factors that determine consumers' WTP for grape products. As price increases, the consumer's WTP for safe and high quality grapes decreases.

Originality/value

This research provides a chance to understand consumers' demand and WTP for the quality and safety of grape products in Zhejiang, China. Further understanding was gained regarding factors affecting consumers judging grape products, which in turn may influence their purchase decisions. The results also could guide grape growers to supply products that better meet consumers' needs. It is proposed that the Chinese government pay more attention to taking measures to improve the quality and safety of grape products.

Details

British Food Journal, vol. 114 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0007-070X

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 2014

Feng Jianying, Wang Xia, Fu Zetian and Mu Weisong

The paper aims to understand consumers' perception and cognition toward table grapes, which focuses on the most important attributes, consumption consequences and personal…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to understand consumers' perception and cognition toward table grapes, which focuses on the most important attributes, consumption consequences and personal values of grape consumption and the relations among them.

Design/methodology/approach

The study related grape consumption with consumers based on Means-end chain analysis. The data were gathered with both laddering interviews (n=37) and questionnaire survey returned by 843 individuals in 31 provinces of China. The data were firstly processed by SPSS software and descriptive statistics was adopted to evaluate consumers' awareness. Furthermore, MECanalyst software was opted for, to construct the hierarchical relations of table grape consumption.

Findings

The findings are that consumers consume grapes based on their functional cognition and sensory perception. The quality-orientated characters are deemed to be the most important grape attributes, healthy and practical function are the main expected benefits and desired values in table grape consumption.

Practical implications

The findings can provide some implications to producers, administers and operators in the grape industry and inspire them to design products that will better satisfy consumers. Stakeholders in grape industries should take measures to inform consumers of grape benefits so as to increase grape consumption and expand the market.

Originality/value

The paper fulfils the combinations of laddering interview and structured questionnaire to conduct the large-scale samples survey about consumers' perception based on MEC analysis. Findings from this study reinforce the importance of research into the relationship between products and consumers.

Details

British Food Journal, vol. 116 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0007-070X

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 8 June 2015

Weihua Jiao, Zetian Fu, Weisong Mu, Xiaoshuan Zhang, Jianjun Lu and Mark Xu

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the technical efficiency of Chinese table grape wholesalers and subsequently to examine the degree to which the calculated…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the technical efficiency of Chinese table grape wholesalers and subsequently to examine the degree to which the calculated efficiency correlates with a set of explanatory variables.

Design/methodology/approach

A two-stage procedure is applied in this paper. First, a non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique is applied to investigate the degree of technical efficiency for Chinese table grape wholesalers. Second, Tobit regression is used to analyze the factors influencing technical efficiency.

Findings

Research results reveal that the mean technical efficiency of the sample is 0.544 and 0.860 under constant returns scale (CRS) and VRS assumptions, respectively, and the scale efficiency (SE) is 0.620. The variables of experiences, number of grape varieties on sale, daily selling volumes and fixed sale ratio have a significant effect on technical efficiency, while the other exogenous variables do not affect the efficiency in any significant way.

Research limitations/implications

The findings of this research are specific to table grape wholesalers in China, however, the method used in this study is transferrable and applicable to the study of similar problems in others countries.

Originality/value

This research has yielded some interesting and original insights into the efficiency level of Chinese grape wholesalers and the factors that influence the level of efficiency. The findings have practical implications for Chinese agriculture policy makers, and are able to stimulate further research of a similar type in the international agricultural research community.

Details

British Food Journal, vol. 117 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0007-070X

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 29 June 2012

Weihua Jiao, Zetian Fu, Weisong Mu, Neil McLaughlin and Mark Xu

Table grape is one of the most important horticultural crops in China. However, quality and safety have become major constraints for the further development of the Chinese…

Abstract

Purpose

Table grape is one of the most important horticultural crops in China. However, quality and safety have become major constraints for the further development of the Chinese table grape industry, which is dominated by small‐scale vinegrowers. Strategic partnership has been regarded as an effective mechanism to manage the supply chain. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of a supply chain model based on different strategic partnerships on the effect of safety and quality control and small‐scale vinegrowers' performance.

Design/methodology/approach

The field survey was performed in seven representative districts in China, including Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Tianjin, Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces. A semi‐structured interview was adopted as the data collection method. Both quantitative and qualitative data were generated and analyzed in this research. All quantitative analyses were conducted using EXCEL 2003 version and a comparative analysis was conducted to test the hypotheses.

Findings

The results show that modern supply chains are more efficient than the traditional one in improving the effect of safety and quality control and small‐scale vinegrowers' performance.

Originality/value

This paper first identified different models of table grape supply chain based on different strategic partnerships, and then analyzed the impact of supply chain model on the effect of quality and safety control and small‐scale vinegrowers' performance. It concludes with some policy suggestions relative to further development of the table grape industry in China.

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