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Article
Publication date: 5 April 2018

Reza Ghazavi and Haidar Ebrahimi

Groundwater is an important source of water supply in arid and semi-arid areas. The purpose of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on groundwater…

Abstract

Purpose

Groundwater is an important source of water supply in arid and semi-arid areas. The purpose of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment in Ilam Province, west of Iran.

Design/methodology/approach

A three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model (modular finite difference groundwater FLOW model: MODFLOW) was used to simulate the impacts of three climate scenarios (i.e. an average of a long-term rainfall, predicted rainfall in 2015-2030 and three years moving average rainfall) on groundwater recharge and groundwater levels. Various climate scenarios in Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator were applied to predict weather data.

Findings

HadCM3 climatic model and A2 emission scenario were selected as the best methods for weather data generation. Based on the results of these models, annual precipitation will decrease by 3 per cent during 2015-2030. For three emission scenarios, i.e. an average of a long-term rainfall, predicted rainfall in 2015-2030 and three years moving average rainfall, precipitation in 2030 is estimated to be 265, 257 and 247 mm, respectively. For the studied aquifer, predicted recharge will decrease compared to recharge calculated based on the average of long-term rainfall.

Originality/value

The decline of groundwater level in the study area was 11.45 m during the past 24 years or 0.48 m/year. Annual groundwater depletion should increase to 0.75 m in the coming 16 years via climate change. Climate change adaptation policies in the basin should include changing the crop type, as well as water productivity and irrigation efficiency enhancement at the farm and regional scales.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 11 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 17 August 2015

Kindie Tesfaye, Sika Gbegbelegbe, Jill E Cairns, Bekele Shiferaw, Boddupalli M Prasanna, Kai Sonder, Ken Boote, Dan Makumbi and Richard Robertson

The purpose of this study is to examine the biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change on maize production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change on maize production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using adapted improved maize varieties and well-calibrated and validated bioeconomic models.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the past climate (1950-2000) as a baseline, the study estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change in 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) under the A1B emission scenario and three nitrogen levels, and the socioeconomic impacts in 2050.

Findings

Climate change will affect maize yields across SSA in 2050 and 2080, and the extent of the impact at a given period will vary considerably between input levels, regions and maize mega environments (MMEs). Greater relative yield reductions may occur under medium and high-input intensification than under low intensification, in Western and Southern Africa than in Eastern and Central Africa and in lowland and dry mid-altitude than in highland and wet mid-altitude MMEs. Climate change may worsen food insecurity in SSA in 2050 through its negative impact on maize consumption and reduction in daily calorie intake. However, international trade has the potential to offset some of the negative impacts.

Originality/value

The study calibrated and applied bioeconomic models to estimate the biophysical and socioeconomic impact of climate change on maize production at fine resolution. The results could be used as a baseline to evaluate measures that will be applied to adapt maize to the future climate in SSA.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 7 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 23 August 2013

P.F.G. Banfill, D.P. Jenkins, S. Patidar, M. Gul, G.F. Menzies and G.J. Gibson

The work set out to design and develop an overheating risk tool using the UKCP09 climate projections that is compatible with building performance simulation software. The…

Abstract

Purpose

The work set out to design and develop an overheating risk tool using the UKCP09 climate projections that is compatible with building performance simulation software. The aim of the tool is to exploit the Weather Generator and give a reasonably accurate assessment of a building's performance in future climates, without adding significant time, cost or complexity to the design team's work.

Methodology/approach

Because simulating every possible future climate is impracticable, the approach adopted was to use principal component analysis to give a statistically rigorous simplification of the climate projections. The perceptions and requirements of potential users were assessed through surveys, interviews and focus groups.

Findings

It is possible to convert a single dynamic simulation output into many hundreds of simulation results at hourly resolution for equally probable climates, giving a population of outcomes for the performance of a specific building in a future climate, thus helping the user choose adaptations that might reduce the risk of overheating. The tool outputs can be delivered as a probabilistic overheating curve and feed into a risk management matrix. Professionals recognized the need to quantify overheating risk, particularly for non‐domestic buildings, and were concerned about the ease of incorporating the UKCP09 projections into this process. The new tool has the potential to meet these concerns.

Originality/value

The paper is the first attempt to link UKCP09 climate projections and building performance simulation software in this way and the work offers the potential for design practitioners to use the tool to quickly assess the risk of overheating in their designs and adapt them accordingly.

Details

Structural Survey, vol. 31 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-080X

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Article
Publication date: 23 August 2013

Rajat Gupta, Matthew Gregg, Hu Du and Katie Williams

To critically compare three future weather year (FWY) downscaling approaches, based on the 2009 UK Climate Projections, used for climate change impact and adaptation…

Abstract

Purpose

To critically compare three future weather year (FWY) downscaling approaches, based on the 2009 UK Climate Projections, used for climate change impact and adaptation analysis in building simulation software.

Design/methodology/approach

The validity of these FWYs is assessed through dynamic building simulation modelling to project future overheating risk in typical English homes in 2050s and 2080s.

Findings

The modelling results show that the variation in overheating projections is far too significant to consider the tested FWY data sets equally suitable for the task.

Research and practical implications

It is recommended that future research should consider harmonisation of the downscaling approaches so as to generate a unified data set of FWYs to be used for a given location and climate projection. If FWY are to be used in practice, live projects will need viable and reliable FWY on which to base their adaptation decisions. The difference between the data sets tested could potentially lead to different adaptation priorities specifically with regard to time series and adaptation phasing through the life of a building.

Originality/value

The paper investigates the different results derived from FWY application to building simulation. The outcome and implications are important considerations for research and practice involved in FWY data use in building simulation intended for climate change adaptation modelling.

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Article
Publication date: 20 March 2020

Yahya Wisam Al-saeed, Abdullahi Ahmed and Erika Anneli Pärn

The Middle Eastern terrain is expected to encounter unprecedented climatic conditions before the turn of the next century (circa. 80 years), emanating from extreme heat…

Abstract

Purpose

The Middle Eastern terrain is expected to encounter unprecedented climatic conditions before the turn of the next century (circa. 80 years), emanating from extreme heat waves that exceed the critical threshold of habitable conditions. This threatens to cause a significant challenge that is exacerbated by a gap between the supply and demand of affordable energy. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the potential of utilising nearly zero-energy buildings (nZEB) to improve the performance of residential buildings in Iraq and the Middle East.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses Iraq as a case-study because of the breadth of climatic conditions experienced across its wide-reaching territory and also because of the recent critical infrastructural challenges following the geo-political crisis. Three virtual buildings were simulated for Baghdad, Mosul and Basra cities to narrow the confines of the region to achieve nZEB under current and future climatic weather scenarios.

Findings

The findings showed that in all three cases studies, the buildings located within the three climatic regions in Iraq could achieve both significant annual energy reductions as well as nZEB standards which could range from 41 per cent to 87 per cent for current climatic conditions and 40 per cent to 84 per cent by 2080. An analysis has also been carried out for the three case-study cities which revealed significant operational-cost savings achievable through nZEB buildings.

Originality/value

There are currently limited studies that investigate such positive potential for nZEB strategies under the current and predicted future climatic scenarios in the Middle East.

Details

International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation, vol. 38 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-4708

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 25 September 2017

Ahmad Rajabi and Zahra Babakhani

This study aims to present the climate change effect on potential evapotranspiration (ETP) in future periods.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to present the climate change effect on potential evapotranspiration (ETP) in future periods.

Design/methodology/approach

Daily minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and precipitation weather parameters have been downscaled by global circulation model (GCM) and Lars-WG outputs. Weather data have been estimated according to the Had-CM3 GCM and by A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios in three periods: 2011-2030, 2045-2046 and 2080-2099. To select the more suitable method for ETP estimation, the Hargreaves-Samani (H-S) method and the Priestly–Taylor (P-T) method have been compared with the Penman-Monteith (P-M) method. Regarding the fact that the H-S method has been in better accordance with the P-M method, ETP in future periods has been estimated by this method for different scenarios.

Findings

In all five stations, in all three scenarios and in all three periods, ETP will increase. The highest ETP increase will occur in the A1B scenario and then in the A1 scenario. The lowest increase will occur in the B1 scenario. In the 2020 decade, the highest ETP increase in three scenarios will occur in Khorramabad and then Hamedan. Kermanshah, Sanandaj and Ilam stations come at third to fifth place, respectively, with a close increase in amount. In the 2050 decade, ETP increase percentages in all scenarios are close to each other in all the five stations. In the 2080 decade, ETP increase percentages in all scenarios will be close to each other in four stations, namely, Kermanshah, Sanandaj, Khorramabad and Hamedan, and Ilam station will have a higher increase compared with the other four stations.

Originality/value

Meanwhile, the highest ETP increase will occur in hot months of the year, which are significant with regard to irrigation and water resources.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 14 September 2017

Iman Hesam Arefi, Mehri Saffari and Rooholla Moradi

The purpose of this study is to simulate the climate change impacts on winter wheat production and evaluate the possibilities of using various varieties and shifting…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to simulate the climate change impacts on winter wheat production and evaluate the possibilities of using various varieties and shifting planting date as two climate change adaptation strategies in Kerman Province, Iran.

Design/methodology/approach

Two types of global circulation model and three scenarios for three periods were used. Daily climatic parameters were generated by LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator). The CERES-wheat model was used to simulate future winter wheat growth, development and production.

Findings

The results showed that CO2 had no effect on the phenology of winter wheat, and the negative impact of temperature on the grain yield was higher than the positive effect of CO2 enrichment. The length of the reproductive growth period of the winter wheat was significantly shortened as affected by the negative impacts of rise in temperature. The simulated results indicated that the grain yield of common (medium maturing) variety of winter wheat will decline, ranging from −0.27 to −18.71 per cent according to future climate changes. Adaptation strategies showed that the early maturing variety had a higher and more stable grain yield under climate change conditions than medium and delayed maturing varieties. Earlier planting date (20 October) increased wheat grain yield under future climatic conditions than common (November 5) planting date. In reverse, later planting (November 20) would accelerate harmful effects of climate change on wheat grain yield.

Originality/value

The results highlighted the potential of early maturing variety and early planting date as the appropriate agronomical approaches for mitigating harmful impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in arid regions.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 9 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 30 November 2004

Shi Yong Yoo

This paper is concerned with the effects of weather uncertainty on the electricity future curve. Following the approach used by Lucia and Schwartz (2002), the behavior of…

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the effects of weather uncertainty on the electricity future curve. Following the approach used by Lucia and Schwartz (2002), the behavior of the underlying spot price is assumed to consist of two components ‘ a totally predictable deterministic component that accounts for regularities in the evolution of prices and a stochastic component that accounts for the behavior of residuals from the deterministic part. The weather uncertainty is modeled consistently with seasonal outlook probabilities from the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) outlook. For a given realization of temperature, the electricity load can be predicted very accurately by a time series model using temperature and other explanatory variables. Furthermore, if temperature and electricity load are known, the spot price can be predicted as well using the regime switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. The electricity future price can be calculated for the given seasonal probabilities from the CPC outlook. Then the electricity future price can be obtained as the arithmetic average of the one-day electricity future price. The future price reflects clearly the response of the spot price to different weather patterns. As the summer gets warmer, the high price regime is more likely to be realized, and as a result, the future price increases.

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Article
Publication date: 19 February 2019

Amin Alvanchi and Shayan JavadiAghdam

Many construction projects are implemented in open-environment job sites and can be significantly affected by various weather conditions. Evaluating the overall impacts of…

Abstract

Purpose

Many construction projects are implemented in open-environment job sites and can be significantly affected by various weather conditions. Evaluating the overall impacts of the weather conditions on a project can assist project managers to prepare effectively. Nevertheless, methods measuring the overall adverse impacts of the job sites’ weather condition on the project performance are still missing. This study aims to address this gap.

Design/methodology/approach

In this investigation, a survey-based method was proposed to evaluate the overall impacts of the weather conditions on the construction project resources through a new indicator called job site weather index (JWI). The target survey population includes practitioners directly involved in the on-site construction operations.

Findings

The JWI suggests the direction of the resource change in new construction projects based on the weather condition. The method was implemented in the road construction projects of Iran and successfully applied to four sample cities. In this experiment, construction workers were identified as the most susceptible resources to the unfavorable weather conditions. Hot temperature above 50°C and cold temperature below −10°C were ranked as the most influential factors for the workers. The results achieved showed high accordance with the trends currently followed in the country.

Originality/value

This research was the first structured method for capturing impacts of weather conditions on the performance of construction resources in open environment construction projects. Implementation of the method in road construction projects of Iran revealed new results that have not been previously identified. The impacts of the company-specific factors on the final productivity rate, however, were not investigated in the research. Investigations accounting impacts of various company-specific factors on the final productivity rate are required.

Details

Construction Innovation , vol. 19 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1471-4175

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 16 November 2015

Pablo Ballesteros-Pérez, Maria Luisa del Campo-Hitschfeld, Manuel Alejandro González-Naranjo and Mari Carmen González-Cruz

Construction projects usually suffer delays, and the causes of these delays and its cost overruns have been widely discussed, the weather being one of the most recurrent…

Abstract

Purpose

Construction projects usually suffer delays, and the causes of these delays and its cost overruns have been widely discussed, the weather being one of the most recurrent. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of climate on standard construction work activities through a case study.

Design/methodology/approach

By studying the extent at which some weather variables impede outdoor work from being effectively executed, new maps and tables for planning for delays are presented. In addition, a real case regarding the construction of several bridges in southern Chile is analyzed.

Findings

Few studies have thoroughly addressed the influences of major climatic agents on the most common outdoor construction activities. The method detailed here provides a first approximation for construction planners to assess to what extent construction productivity will be influenced by the climate.

Research limitations/implications

Although this study was performed in Chile, the simplified method proposed is entirely transferable to any other country, however, other weather or combinations of weather variables could be needed in other environments or countries.

Practical implications

The implications will help reducing the negative social, economic and environmental outcomes that usually emerge from project delays.

Originality/value

Climatic data were processed using extremely simple calculations to create a series of quantitative maps and tables that would be useful for any construction planner to decide the best moment of the year to start a project and, if possible, where to build it.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 22 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

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