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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 May 2009

Kwang-Il Bae and Jin Hee Choung

The weather largely affects economic activity, and thus, companies vulnerable to weather risk need to plan ahead to cope with unexpected weather changes, just as they do for…

51

Abstract

The weather largely affects economic activity, and thus, companies vulnerable to weather risk need to plan ahead to cope with unexpected weather changes, just as they do for changes in interest rates, oil prices, or foreign exchange rates to stabilize their earning stream. Weather derivatives can be a useful tool for weather risk management.

This paper focuses on pricing one of the most popular weather derivatives -HDD/CDD options- and estimating the market price of weather risk (MPR). Historical data are used to construct the stochastic process of temperature, while the current market prices of Chicago and New York HDD futures options are used to extract the implied MPR. The Monte-Carlo Simulation Method is proposed to estimate the price of weather derivatives numerically. In addition, the approximate closed form formula for the options is provided modifying the Alaton, Djehiche, and Stillberg (2002) model. Finally, option price sensitivity to changes in MPR is analyzed to show the important role of the MPR in the weather option pricing model.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies, vol. 17 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2713-6647

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 1999

Martin Lohmann and Eike Kaim

Five factors are a prerequisite for tourism: Ability to travel and motivation to travel on the demand side, and attractiveness, amenities and accessibility on the side of the…

1157

Abstract

Five factors are a prerequisite for tourism: Ability to travel and motivation to travel on the demand side, and attractiveness, amenities and accessibility on the side of the destination. Concerning the attractiveness of a destination, the factor weather is of particular importance. Until now, there is a lack of empirical data, showing if and how weather affects holiday destination preferences.

Details

The Tourist Review, vol. 54 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0251-3102

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 March 2007

Karyl B. Leggio

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the use of weather derivatives to hedge firm exposure to previously unmanageable risk events caused by natural phenomenon such as…

2356

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the use of weather derivatives to hedge firm exposure to previously unmanageable risk events caused by natural phenomenon such as excessive rainfall.Design/methodology/approach – The paper adopts a case study approach to meet the objectives above, focusing on golf courses in the Midwest USA, which provide perfect examples of businesses with seasonal cash flows.Findings – It is shown that a firm can reduce its revenue volatility by up to 80 per cent. Weather derivatives are important additions to firm portfolios of risk management tools. Purchasing weather derivatives will improve the owner's ability to forecast revenues and assure expenditure coverage, both important goals for a small business owner.Practical implications – Many firms find the uneven revenue streams associated with their industry to be difficult to manage. One of the primary risks faced by firms is exposure to weather phenomena. With the introduction of weather derivatives, firms can now hedge their exposure to climatologic events. The application for weather derivatives is quite limitless. Weather derivatives are a relatively new product, and most firms are either unaware of their existence or believe them to be complicated. It is an industry that may experience explosive growth in the coming years.Originality/value – This paper demonstrates the use of derivatives to hedge exposure to climatic events.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 33 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 December 2023

Tuncer Akay and Cevahir Tarhan

One of the sectors most affected by the variable weather events caused by climate change and global warming is the aviation sector. Especially in aircraft accidents, weather

Abstract

Purpose

One of the sectors most affected by the variable weather events caused by climate change and global warming is the aviation sector. Especially in aircraft accidents, weather events increasing with climate change and global warming are effective. The purpose of this study is to determine how much the change in weather conditions caused by global warming and climate changes affect the aircraft in the world between the years 2010 and 2022.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, it was investigated which weather events were more effective in aircraft crashes by determining the rates of air events and aircraft crashes in aircraft crashes with a passenger capacity of 12 or more that occurred between 2010 and 2022.

Findings

It is clearly seen that increasing weather conditions with global warming and climate change increase the effect of weather conditions in aircraft crashes.

Originality/value

The difference of this study from other studies is the evaluation of the data of the past 12 years, in which the increasing consequences of global warming and climate change have been felt more. It also reveals the necessity of further research on the effects of weather conditions on aircraft.

Details

Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, vol. 96 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1748-8842

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 December 2023

Jungmi Oh

Climate change-induced weather changes are severe and frequent, making it difficult to predict apparel sales. The primary goal of this study was to assess consumers' responses to…

Abstract

Purpose

Climate change-induced weather changes are severe and frequent, making it difficult to predict apparel sales. The primary goal of this study was to assess consumers' responses to winter apparel searches when external stimuli, such as weather, calendars and promotions arise and to develop a decision-making tool that allows apparel retailers to establish sales strategies according to external stimuli.

Design/methodology/approach

The theoretical framework of this study was the effect of external stimuli, such as calendar, promotion and weather, on seasonal apparel search in a consumer's decision-making process. Using weather observation data and Google Trends over the past 12 years, from 2008 to 2020, consumers' responses to external stimuli were analyzed using a classification and regression tree to gain consumer insights into the decision process. The relative importance of the factors in the model was determined, a tree model was developed and the model was tested.

Findings

Winter apparel searches increased when the average, maximum and minimum temperatures, windchill, and the previous day's windchill decreased. The month of the year varies depending on weather factors, and promotional sales events do not increase search activities for seasonal apparel. However, sales events during the higher-than-normal temperature season triggered search activity for seasonal apparel.

Originality/value

Consumer responses to external stimuli were analyzed through classification and regression trees to discover consumer insights into the decision-making process to improve stock management because climate change-induced weather changes are unpredictable.

Details

Journal of Fashion Marketing and Management: An International Journal, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1361-2026

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 May 2023

Ventura Charlin and Arturo Cifuentes

The climate in Mendoza is significantly different from the climate in most global wine-making regions. This paper aims to explore the relationship between the quality of the…

Abstract

Purpose

The climate in Mendoza is significantly different from the climate in most global wine-making regions. This paper aims to explore the relationship between the quality of the Malbec wine from the Mendoza region and its weather.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a multivariate regression model with fixed effects to assess how weather variations relate to wine quality. The Wine Spectator ratings are used as a measure of wine quality and to build a longitudinal data set of Malbec wine ratings from 1995 to 2020. The weather is described with several variables based on temperature, rainfall, humidity and cloudiness data from the Mendoza region. The model controls for wineries which are treated as fixed effects.

Findings

The results of this study indicate that the weather has a modest explanatory power when it comes to the quality of Mendoza’s Malbec. Additionally, the analyses show that the wineries are more important than the weather to explain quality differences in the wines. These findings are in agreement with previous studies carried out in regions with stable weather such as California and Australia.

Practical implications

The quality of Mendoza’s Malbec depends more on the winery of origin than the year-to-year weather variations. Therefore, consumers should focus more on the winery and less on the vintage when making purchasing decisions. Additionally, given the relevance of the winery in relation to quality, the findings of this study indicate that future research efforts should focus on directly linking the wine ratings to quality-drivers behind the winery effects.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that explores the relationship between wine quality assessed through wine ratings and the weather in the Mendoza (Argentina) region. Most such studies have been done in connection with northern hemisphere wines.

Details

International Journal of Wine Business Research, vol. 35 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1751-1062

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 August 2022

Pankaj Singh

The purpose of the present paper is to review studies on weather index-insurance as a tool to manage the climate change impact risk on farmers and to explore the study gaps in the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the present paper is to review studies on weather index-insurance as a tool to manage the climate change impact risk on farmers and to explore the study gaps in the currently existing literature by using a systematic literature review.

Design/methodology/approach

This study analyzed and reviewed the 374 articles on weather index insurance (WII) based on a systematic literature search on Web of Science and Scopus databases by using the systematic literature review method.

Findings

WII studies shifted their focus on growing and emerging areas of climate change impact risk. The finding shows that the impact of climate change risk significantly influenced the viability of WII in terms of pricing and design of WII. Therefore, the cost of WII premium increases due to the uncertainty of climate change impact that enhances the probability of losses related to insured weather risks. However, WII has emerged as a risk management tool of climate insurance for vulnerable agrarian communities. The efficacy of WII has been significantly influenced by repetitive environmental disasters and climate change phenomena.

Research limitations/implications

This study will be valuable for scholars to recognize the missing and emerging themes in WII.

Practical implications

This study will help the policy planners to understand the influence of climate change impact on WII viability.

Originality/value

This study is the original work of the author. An attempt has been made in the present study to systematically examine the viability of WII for insuring the climate change risk.

Details

Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4620

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 September 2022

Anas Al-Refaie, Ali Alashwal, Zulkiflee Abdul-Samad, Hafez Salleh and Ahmed Elshafie

Weather is one of the main factors affecting labour productivity. Existing weather-productivity models focussed on hot and cold climates paying less attention to the tropics. Many…

Abstract

Purpose

Weather is one of the main factors affecting labour productivity. Existing weather-productivity models focussed on hot and cold climates paying less attention to the tropics. Many tropical countries are expected to be the most areas affected by accelerated climate change and global warming, which may have a severe impact on labour health and productivity. The purpose of this paper is to assess whether the existing models can be used to predict labour productivity based on weather conditions in the tropics.

Design/methodology/approach

Five models are identified from the literature for evaluation. Using real labour productivity data of a high-rise building project in Malaysia, the actual productivity rate was compared with predicted productivity rates generated using the five models. The predicted productivity rates were generated using weather variables collected from an adjusting weather station to the project.

Findings

Compared with other models evaluated in this paper, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) was found to be the best model to predict productivity based on the case study data. However, the result shows only a 57% accuracy level of the USACE model indicating the need to develop a new model for the tropics for more accurate prediction.

Originality/value

The result of this study is perhaps the first to apply meteorological variables to predict productivity rates and validate them using actual productivity data in the tropics. This study is the first step to developing a more accurate productivity model, which will be useful for project planning and more accurate productivity rate estimation.

Details

Built Environment Project and Asset Management, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-124X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 December 2022

Xuan Liu, G. Cornelis van Kooten, Eric Martin Gerbrandt and Jun Duan

The authors investigate whether an index-based weather insurance (WII) product can complement or replace existing traditional crop yield insurance for mitigating farmers'…

Abstract

Purpose

The authors investigate whether an index-based weather insurance (WII) product can complement or replace existing traditional crop yield insurance for mitigating farmers' financial risks, with an application to blueberry growers in British Columbia (BC).

Design/methodology/approach

A hybrid model combining expected utility (EU) and prospect values is developed to analyse farmers' demand for WII.

Findings

While weather data are used to investigate supply elements, a hybrid model combining EU theory and prospect theory (PT) is developed to analyse farmers' demand for WII. On the supply side, a quality index is constructed and the relationship between the quality index and key weather parameters is quantified using a partial least squares structural model. The authors then model weather parameters via time-series analysis and statistical distributions to provide reasonable estimates for calculating actuarially sound insurance premiums for a rainfall indexed, insurance product. This model indicates that decreases in the proportion of a blueberry grower's total revenue and revenue volatility will decrease the possibility that they participate in WII. At the same time, an increase in the value loss aversion coefficient and WII's basis risk further leads to less demand for WII. In short, a grower may decide not to participate in WII at an actuarially fair premium due to the combined effects of the above factors. Overall, while the supply analysis enables us to demonstrate that WII can potentially help in mitigating farmers' financial risks, it turns out that, on the demand side, blueberry growers are unwilling to pay for such a product without large government subsidies.

Originality/value

The authors argue that the demand for insurance may be affected by the level and the volatility of a berry grower's total revenue. Hence, the authors propose a hybrid expression that assumes a farmer seeks to maximize the total utility function to capture the rational and intuitive parts of a farmer's decision-making process. The EU represents rationality and the prospect value represents the intuitive component. Meanwhile, the authors investigate the possibility of using key weather parameters to construct a berry quality index – one that could be applied to other agricultural areas for studying the relationship between weather conditions and product quality.

Details

Agricultural Finance Review, vol. 83 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-1466

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 1982

Jim Segesta

This article is about reference books that can answer questions about the typical weather for a city in the United States or the actual weather on a given day in the past.

Abstract

This article is about reference books that can answer questions about the typical weather for a city in the United States or the actual weather on a given day in the past.

Details

Reference Services Review, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0090-7324

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