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Article
Publication date: 14 November 2023

Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken, Mohammed Hamaidi, Mohammad M. Hamed, Abdelhamid Issa Hassane and Jean Gaston Tamba

For some years now, Cameroon has seen a significant increase in its electricity demand, and this need is bound to grow within the next few years owing to the current economic…

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Abstract

Purpose

For some years now, Cameroon has seen a significant increase in its electricity demand, and this need is bound to grow within the next few years owing to the current economic growth and the ambitious projects underway. Therefore, one of the state's priorities is the mastery of electricity demand. In order to get there, it would be helpful to have reliable forecasting tools. This study proposes a novel version of the discrete grey multivariate convolution model (ODGMC(1,N)).

Design/methodology/approach

Specifically, a linear corrective term is added to its structure, parameterisation is done in a way that is consistent to the modelling procedure and the cumulated forecasting function of ODGMC(1,N) is obtained through an iterative technique.

Findings

Results show that ODGMC(1,N) is more stable and can extract the relationships between the system's input variables. To demonstrate and validate the superiority of ODGMC(1,N), a practical example drawn from the projection of electricity demand in Cameroon till 2030 is used. The findings reveal that the proposed model has a higher prediction precision, with 1.74% mean absolute percentage error and 132.16 root mean square error.

Originality/value

These interesting results are due to (1) the stability of ODGMC(1,N) resulting from a good adequacy between parameters estimation and their implementation, (2) the addition of a term that takes into account the linear impact of time t on the model's performance and (3) the removal of irrelevant information from input data by wavelet transform filtration. Thus, the suggested ODGMC is a robust predictive and monitoring tool for tracking the evolution of electricity needs.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 March 2024

Cemalettin Akdoğan, Tolga Özer and Yüksel Oğuz

Nowadays, food problems are likely to arise because of the increasing global population and decreasing arable land. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the yield of…

Abstract

Purpose

Nowadays, food problems are likely to arise because of the increasing global population and decreasing arable land. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the yield of agricultural products. Pesticides can be used to improve agricultural land products. This study aims to make the spraying of cherry trees more effective and efficient with the designed artificial intelligence (AI)-based agricultural unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV).

Design/methodology/approach

Two approaches have been adopted for the AI-based detection of cherry trees: In approach 1, YOLOv5, YOLOv7 and YOLOv8 models are trained with 70, 100 and 150 epochs. In Approach 2, a new method is proposed to improve the performance metrics obtained in Approach 1. Gaussian, wavelet transform (WT) and Histogram Equalization (HE) preprocessing techniques were applied to the generated data set in Approach 2. The best-performing models in Approach 1 and Approach 2 were used in the real-time test application with the developed agricultural UAV.

Findings

In Approach 1, the best F1 score was 98% in 100 epochs with the YOLOv5s model. In Approach 2, the best F1 score and mAP values were obtained as 98.6% and 98.9% in 150 epochs, with the YOLOv5m model with an improvement of 0.6% in the F1 score. In real-time tests, the AI-based spraying drone system detected and sprayed cherry trees with an accuracy of 66% in Approach 1 and 77% in Approach 2. It was revealed that the use of pesticides could be reduced by 53% and the energy consumption of the spraying system by 47%.

Originality/value

An original data set was created by designing an agricultural drone to detect and spray cherry trees using AI. YOLOv5, YOLOv7 and YOLOv8 models were used to detect and classify cherry trees. The results of the performance metrics of the models are compared. In Approach 2, a method including HE, Gaussian and WT is proposed, and the performance metrics are improved. The effect of the proposed method in a real-time experimental application is thoroughly analyzed.

Details

Robotic Intelligence and Automation, vol. 44 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2754-6969

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 June 2021

Ambica Ghai, Pradeep Kumar and Samrat Gupta

Web users rely heavily on online content make decisions without assessing the veracity of the content. The online content comprising text, image, video or audio may be tampered…

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Abstract

Purpose

Web users rely heavily on online content make decisions without assessing the veracity of the content. The online content comprising text, image, video or audio may be tampered with to influence public opinion. Since the consumers of online information (misinformation) tend to trust the content when the image(s) supplement the text, image manipulation software is increasingly being used to forge the images. To address the crucial problem of image manipulation, this study focusses on developing a deep-learning-based image forgery detection framework.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed deep-learning-based framework aims to detect images forged using copy-move and splicing techniques. The image transformation technique aids the identification of relevant features for the network to train effectively. After that, the pre-trained customized convolutional neural network is used to train on the public benchmark datasets, and the performance is evaluated on the test dataset using various parameters.

Findings

The comparative analysis of image transformation techniques and experiments conducted on benchmark datasets from a variety of socio-cultural domains establishes the effectiveness and viability of the proposed framework. These findings affirm the potential applicability of proposed framework in real-time image forgery detection.

Research limitations/implications

This study bears implications for several important aspects of research on image forgery detection. First this research adds to recent discussion on feature extraction and learning for image forgery detection. While prior research on image forgery detection, hand-crafted the features, the proposed solution contributes to stream of literature that automatically learns the features and classify the images. Second, this research contributes to ongoing effort in curtailing the spread of misinformation using images. The extant literature on spread of misinformation has prominently focussed on textual data shared over social media platforms. The study addresses the call for greater emphasis on the development of robust image transformation techniques.

Practical implications

This study carries important practical implications for various domains such as forensic sciences, media and journalism where image data is increasingly being used to make inferences. The integration of image forgery detection tools can be helpful in determining the credibility of the article or post before it is shared over the Internet. The content shared over the Internet by the users has become an important component of news reporting. The framework proposed in this paper can be further extended and trained on more annotated real-world data so as to function as a tool for fact-checkers.

Social implications

In the current scenario wherein most of the image forgery detection studies attempt to assess whether the image is real or forged in an offline mode, it is crucial to identify any trending or potential forged image as early as possible. By learning from historical data, the proposed framework can aid in early prediction of forged images to detect the newly emerging forged images even before they occur. In summary, the proposed framework has a potential to mitigate physical spreading and psychological impact of forged images on social media.

Originality/value

This study focusses on copy-move and splicing techniques while integrating transfer learning concepts to classify forged images with high accuracy. The synergistic use of hitherto little explored image transformation techniques and customized convolutional neural network helps design a robust image forgery detection framework. Experiments and findings establish that the proposed framework accurately classifies forged images, thus mitigating the negative socio-cultural spread of misinformation.

Details

Information Technology & People, vol. 37 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-3845

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 30 January 2024

Christina Anderl and Guglielmo Maria Caporale

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

Abstract

Purpose

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework.

Findings

Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination.

Originality/value

It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Yadong Liu, Nathee Naktnasukanjn, Anukul Tamprasirt and Tanarat Rattanadamrongaksorn

Bitcoin (BTC) is significantly correlated with global financial assets such as crude oil, gold and the US dollar. BTC and global financial assets have become more closely related…

Abstract

Purpose

Bitcoin (BTC) is significantly correlated with global financial assets such as crude oil, gold and the US dollar. BTC and global financial assets have become more closely related, particularly since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this paper is to formulate BTC investment decisions with the aid of global financial assets.

Design/methodology/approach

This study suggests a more accurate prediction model for BTC trading by combining the dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model with the artificial neural network (ANN). The DCC-GARCH model offers significant input information, including dynamic correlation and volatility, to the ANN. To analyze the data effectively, the study divides it into two periods: before and during the COVID-19 outbreak. Each period is then further divided into a training set and a prediction set.

Findings

The empirical results show that BTC and gold have the highest positive correlation compared with crude oil and the USD, while BTC and the USD have a dynamic and negative correlation. More importantly, the ANN-DCC-GARCH model had a cumulative return of 318% before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and can decrease loss by 50% during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the risk-averse can turn a loss into a profit of about 20% in 2022.

Originality/value

The empirical analysis provides technical support and decision-making reference for investors and financial institutions to make investment decisions on BTC.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 November 2023

Ahlem Lamine, Ahmed Jeribi and Tarek Fakhfakh

This study analyzes the static and dynamic risk spillover between US/Chinese stock markets, cryptocurrencies and gold using daily data from August 24, 2018, to January 29, 2021…

Abstract

Purpose

This study analyzes the static and dynamic risk spillover between US/Chinese stock markets, cryptocurrencies and gold using daily data from August 24, 2018, to January 29, 2021. This study provides practical policy implications for investors and portfolio managers.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover indices based on the forecast error variance decomposition from vector autoregression framework. This approach allows the authors to examine both return and volatility spillover before and after the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. First, the authors used a static analysis to calculate the return and volatility spillover indices. Second, the authors make a dynamic analysis based on the 30-day moving window spillover index estimation.

Findings

Generally, results show evidence of significant spillovers between markets, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, cryptocurrencies and gold markets are net receivers of risk. This study provides also practical policy implications for investors and portfolio managers. The reached findings suggest that the mix of Bitcoin (or Ethereum), gold and equities could offer diversification opportunities for US and Chinese investors. Gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum can be considered as safe havens or as hedging instruments during the COVID-19 crisis. In contrast, Stablecoins (Tether and TrueUSD) do not offer hedging opportunities for US and Chinese investors.

Originality/value

The paper's empirical contribution lies in examining both return and volatility spillover between the US and Chinese stock market indices, gold and cryptocurrencies before and after the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. This contribution goes a long way in helping investors to identify optimal diversification and hedging strategies during a crisis.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 29 no. 57
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 December 2023

Guodong Sa, Haodong Bai, Zhenyu Liu, Xiaojian Liu and Jianrong Tan

The assembly simulation in tolerance analysis is one of the most important steps for the tolerance design of mechanical products. However, most assembly simulation methods are…

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Abstract

Purpose

The assembly simulation in tolerance analysis is one of the most important steps for the tolerance design of mechanical products. However, most assembly simulation methods are based on the rigid body assumption, and those assembly simulation methods considering deformation have a poor efficiency. This paper aims to propose a novel efficient and precise tolerance analysis method based on stable contact to improve the efficiency and reliability of assembly deformation simulation.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed method comprehensively considers the initial rigid assembly state, the assembly deformation and the stability examination of assembly simulation to improve the reliability of tolerance analysis results. The assembly deformation of mating surfaces was first calculated based on the boundary element method with optimal initial assembly state, then the stability of assembly simulation results was assessed by the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise algorithm to improve the reliability of tolerance analysis. Finally, combining the small displacement torsor theory, the tolerance scheme was statistically analyzed based on sufficient samples.

Findings

A case study of a guide rail model demonstrated the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Research limitations/implications

The present study only considered the form error when generating the skin model shape, and the waviness and the roughness of the matching surface were not considered.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the proposed method is original in the assembly simulation considering stable contact, which can effectively ensure the reliability of the assembly simulation while taking into account the computational efficiency.

Details

Robotic Intelligence and Automation, vol. 44 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2754-6969

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Thomas C. Chiang

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of…

Abstract

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of the stock market, gold can be viewed as a hedge and safe haven asset in the G7 countries. In the case of inflation, gold acts as a hedge and safe haven asset in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, China, and Indonesia. For currency depreciation, oil price shock, economic policy uncertainty, and US volatility spillover, evidence finds that gold acts as a hedge and safe haven for all countries.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-865-2

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 May 2023

Cosimo Magazzino and Fabio Gaetano Santeramo

In this paper, the heterogeneity of the linkages among financial development, productivity and growth across income groups is emphasized.

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Abstract

Purpose

In this paper, the heterogeneity of the linkages among financial development, productivity and growth across income groups is emphasized.

Design/methodology/approach

An empirical analysis is conducted with an illustrative sample of 130 economies over the period 1991–2019 and classified into four subsamples: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), developing, least developed and net food importing developing countries. Forecast error variance decompositions and panel vector auto-regressive estimations are computed, with insightful findings.

Findings

Higher levels of output stimulate the economic development in the agricultural sector, mainly via the productivity channel and, in the most developed economies, also through access to credit. Differently, in developing and least developed economies, the role of access to credit is marginal. The findings have practical implications for stakeholders involved in the planning of long-run investments. In less developed economies, priorities should be given to investments in technology and innovation, whereas financial markets are more suited to boost the development of the agricultural sector of developed economies.

Originality/value

The authors conclude on the credit–output–productivity nexus and contribute to the literature in (at least) three ways. First, they assess how credit access, agricultural output and agricultural productivity are jointly determined. Second, they use a novel approach, which departs from most of the case studies based on single-country data. Third, they conclude on potential causality links to conclude on policy implications.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 August 2022

Ashish Kumar, Shikha Sharma, Ritu Vashistha, Vikas Srivastava, Mosab I. Tabash, Ziaul Haque Munim and Andrea Paltrinieri

International Journal of Emerging Markets (IJoEM) is a leading journal that publishes high-quality research focused on emerging markets. In 2020, IJoEM celebrated its fifteenth…

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Abstract

Purpose

International Journal of Emerging Markets (IJoEM) is a leading journal that publishes high-quality research focused on emerging markets. In 2020, IJoEM celebrated its fifteenth anniversary, and the objective of this paper is to conduct a retrospective analysis to commensurate IJoEM's milestone.

Design/methodology/approach

Data used in this study were extracted using the Scopus database. Bibliometric analysis, using several indicators, is adopted to reveal the major trends and themes of a journal. Mapping of bibliographic data is carried using VOSviewer.

Findings

Study findings indicate that IJoEM has been growing for publications and citations since its inception. Four significant research directions emerged, i.e. consumer behaviour, financial markets, financial institutions and corporate governance and strategic dimensions based on cluster analysis of IJoEM's publications. The identified future research directions are focused on emergent investments opportunities, trends in behavioural finance, emerging role technology-financial companies, changing trends in corporate governance and the rising importance of strategic management in emerging markets.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to conduct a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of IJoEM. The study presents the key themes and trends emerging from a leading journal considered a high-quality research journal for research on emerging markets by academicians, scholars and practitioners.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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