Search results

This paper aims to study the reliability of the high-speed train operation control system in the Chinese Train Control System Level 3 (CTCS-3) operating mode.

Dynamic fault tree and Bayesian network method are adopted to analyze the reliability and weakness of the CTCS-3 system.

First, a physical architecture and data flow diagram of the CTCS-3 system are established according to the typical structure and functions of the CTCS-3 system. Second, the dynamic fault tree of the CTCS-3 system is constructed. Considering the prior probability of the bottom event and the existence of dynamic redundancy, the dynamic fault tree is transformed into a Bayesian net. The reliability of the CTCS-3 system is carried out based on the prior probability and the weakness that affects the reliability of the system based on the posterior probability is also analyzed by the Bayesian network. Finally, it is disclosed that the impact of the on-board subsystem on the reliability of the CTCS-3 system is generally greater than that of the ground subsystem. The two weakest modules in the onboard subsystem are the driver-machine interface (DMI) and balise transmission module (BTM) and the weakest one in the ground subsystem is Balise. The analysis results are generally consistent with the malfunctions in the field operation of China’s high-speed railway.

(1) By reasoning, the reliability of the train operation control system in the CTCS-3 operating mode meets the standard requirements.

(2) Through backward reasoning, it is found that the failure of the onboard subsystem leads to a greater probability of failure of the train control system.

(3) The DMI, BTM and automatic train protection computer unit modules are weak components in the onboard subsystem. Vital digit input&output, train interface unit and train security gateway are rarely involved in previous research, the result in this paper shows that these three modules are also weak components in the subsystem, which requires attention.

This paper aims to study the affecting factors on bird nesting on electronic railway catenary lines and the impact of bird nesting events on railway operation.

First, with one year’s bird nest events in the form of unstructured natural language collected from Shanghai Railway Bureau, the records were structured with the help of python software tool. Second, the method of root cause analysis (RCA) was used to identify all the possible influencing factors which are inclined to affect the probability of bird nesting. Third, the possible factors then were classified into two categories to meet subsequent analysis separately, category one was outside factors (i.e. geographic conditions related factors), the other was inside factors (i.e. railway related factors).

It was observed that factors of city population, geographic position affect nesting observably. Then it was demonstrated that both location and nesting on equipment part have no correlation with delay, while railway type had a significant but low correlation with delay.

This paper discloses the principle of impacts of nest events on railway operation.

The causes of high-speed railway failures are complex, and it is difficult to quantitatively and accurately describe safety evaluation. The purpose of this paper is to construct a model to ensure the safety of high-speed railway operations.

The authors construct a high-speed railway operation safety evaluation index system from four aspects: personnel, equipment, environment and management and analyze the inter-coupling relationship of various safety factors. Based on the evaluation index system, the use of network analytic hierarchy process (ANP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation will be used to establish a high-speed railway operation safety evaluation model.

Through the literature investigation and field investigation, combined with high-speed railway safety key points and system composition, 4 first-level indicators and 17 second-level indicators were selected to construct a high-speed railway operation safety evaluation index system. It can be seen from the results that the personnel management system and the signal and control system have the largest weight.

On the basis of establishing an evaluation index system, comprehensively considering the internal coupling relationship between evaluation indexes and the fuzziness of high-speed railway operation safety evaluation, high-speed railway uses ANP fuzzy network analysis method to construct high-speed railway operation, and the safety evaluation model has certain advantages and practicability in the case of the relative lack of high-speed railway operation data and fault data.

The diffusion of electronic commerce has a notable impact on the economy's prosperity. This paper embraces complexity theory principles to examine the factors affecting Internet users' acceptance and use of electronic retailers. It is essential for the sustainability of electronic retailers to understand the motivations impacting online consumer behaviour. Symmetrical and asymmetrical methods are combined to examine the relationship between perceived ease of use, perceived enjoyment, web characteristics, online consumer reviews (OCRs) and online purchase intention. Further, symmetry and differences between males and females were examined.

Data collected from 425 online consumers using an online structured survey was analysed using structural equation modelling (SEM) and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). The net effects and causal configurations of the four proposed variables and online purchase intention were examined.

The SEM findings confirmed the significance of perceived enjoyment, website characteristics and OCRs on online purchase intention. Perceived enjoyment mediated the relationship between perceived ease of use and online purchase intention. The multi-group analysis confirmed the difference in antecedent impacts between males and females. The fsQCA findings revealed that multiple recipes lead to the occurrence of online purchase intention; in addition, the recipes leading to its absence do not mirror the previous ones.

The present study embraces complexity theory concepts in understanding online purchase intention using fsQCA methodology; further, the role of gender in online consumer behaviour was highlighted in the result discussion.

This research presents machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic using multisource Internet data.

To develop the prediction models, this research utilizes multisource Internet data from TripAdvisor travel forum and Google Trends. Temporal factors, posts and comments, search queries index and previous tourist arrivals records are set as predictors. Four sets of predictors and three distinct data compositions were utilized for training the machine learning models, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF). To evaluate the models, this research uses three accuracy metrics, namely root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Prediction models trained using multisource Internet data predictors have better accuracy than those trained using single-source Internet data or other predictors. In addition, using more training sets that cover the phenomenon of interest, such as COVID-19, will enhance the prediction model's learning process and accuracy. The experiments show that the RF models have better prediction accuracy than the ANN and SVR models.

First, this study pioneers the practice of a multisource Internet data approach in predicting tourist arrivals amid the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the use of multisource Internet data to improve prediction performance is validated with real empirical data. Finally, this is one of the few papers to provide perspectives on the current dynamics of Indonesia's tourism demand.