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Book part
Publication date: 6 January 2016

Pilar Poncela and Esther Ruiz

In the context of Dynamic Factor Models, we compare point and interval estimates of the underlying unobserved factors extracted using small- and big-data procedures. Our…

Abstract

In the context of Dynamic Factor Models, we compare point and interval estimates of the underlying unobserved factors extracted using small- and big-data procedures. Our paper differs from previous works in the related literature in several ways. First, we focus on factor extraction rather than on prediction of a given variable in the system. Second, the comparisons are carried out by implementing the procedures considered to the same data. Third, we are interested not only on point estimates but also on confidence intervals for the factors. Based on a simulated system and the macroeconomic data set popularized by Stock and Watson (2012), we show that, for a given procedure, factor estimates based on different cross-sectional dimensions are highly correlated. On the other hand, given the cross-sectional dimension, the maximum likelihood Kalman filter and smoother factor estimates are highly correlated with those obtained using hybrid procedures. The PC estimates are somehow less correlated. Finally, the PC intervals based on asymptotic approximations are unrealistically tiny.

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Book part
Publication date: 29 February 2008

Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry

In recent work, we have developed a theory of economic forecasting for empirical econometric models when there are structural breaks. This research shows that…

Abstract

In recent work, we have developed a theory of economic forecasting for empirical econometric models when there are structural breaks. This research shows that well-specified models may forecast poorly, whereas it is possible to design forecasting devices more immune to the effects of breaks. In this chapter, we summarise key aspects of that theory, describe the models and data, then provide an empirical illustration of some of these developments when the goal is to generate sequences of inflation forecasts over a long historical period, starting with the model of annual inflation in the UK over 1875–1991 in Hendry (2001a).

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Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-540-6

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 1939

W.F. Watson

THE Government's reported decision to make a still further increase in the expansion programme over and above that already in force under Scheme L must again give…

Abstract

THE Government's reported decision to make a still further increase in the expansion programme over and above that already in force under Scheme L must again give prominence to the perplexing problem of how to get a continuous supply of properly trained skilled labour.

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Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, vol. 11 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-2667

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Book part
Publication date: 29 February 2008

Tae-Hwy Lee and Yang Yang

Bagging (bootstrap aggregating) is a smoothing method to improve predictive ability under the presence of parameter estimation uncertainty and model uncertainty. In Lee…

Abstract

Bagging (bootstrap aggregating) is a smoothing method to improve predictive ability under the presence of parameter estimation uncertainty and model uncertainty. In Lee and Yang (2006), we examined how (equal-weighted and BMA-weighted) bagging works for one-step-ahead binary prediction with an asymmetric cost function for time series, where we considered simple cases with particular choices of a linlin tick loss function and an algorithm to estimate a linear quantile regression model. In the present chapter, we examine how bagging predictors work with different aggregating (averaging) schemes, for multi-step forecast horizons, with a general class of tick loss functions, with different estimation algorithms, for nonlinear quantile regression models, and for different data frequencies. Bagging quantile predictors are constructed via (weighted) averaging over predictors trained on bootstrapped training samples, and bagging binary predictors are conducted via (majority) voting on predictors trained on the bootstrapped training samples. We find that median bagging and trimmed-mean bagging can alleviate the problem of extreme predictors from bootstrap samples and have better performance than equally weighted bagging predictors; that bagging works better at longer forecast horizons; that bagging works well with highly nonlinear quantile regression models (e.g., artificial neural network), and with general tick loss functions. We also find that the performance of bagging may be affected by using different quantile estimation algorithms (in small samples, even if the estimation is consistent) and by using different frequencies of time series data.

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Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-540-6

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Article
Publication date: 1 October 1938

W.F. Watson

OF all industrial problems demarcation is probably the most baffling and, because its complexities are not always properly appreciated, none gives rise to more misunderstanding.

Abstract

OF all industrial problems demarcation is probably the most baffling and, because its complexities are not always properly appreciated, none gives rise to more misunderstanding.

Details

Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, vol. 10 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-2667

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Book part
Publication date: 9 September 2019

Bonnie Simpson, Madelynn Stackhouse and Katherine White

Although stress has become a prominent research theme in consumer behavior and occupational health, to the authors knowledge there is only one review on the relationship…

Abstract

Although stress has become a prominent research theme in consumer behavior and occupational health, to the authors knowledge there is only one review on the relationship between consumer behavior and stress (i.e., when internal and external factors exceed an individual’s resources and endangering the individual’s well-being) and this was published 10 years ago. Further, research on occupational stress has yet to be fully integrated into the consumer stress literature. In this chapter, the authors attempt to advance research on consumer stress by a drawing on a satisfaction mirror framework which outlines that consumers and employees influence each other through a “mirror” where they positively and cyclically influence each other in a service environment. The authors argue that consumers and employees may likewise mirror each other in a negative cycle of stress and well-being depletion. First, the authors describe how stress is viewed in consumer behavior and marketing. Second, the authors review evidence that consumption serves as a form of coping with stress. Third, the authors discuss the role of consumption as a stressor that may drive consumer stress. Finally, the authors introduce the satisfaction mirror model and outline the bi-directional influence on increased stress and well-being depletion at the consumer–employee interface in service encounters. The model introduced in this chapter serves as a framework for organizing findings related to stress and well-being in the fields of consumer behavior and occupational health. In addition, the model serves as a springboard for developing propositions for future research. Ultimately, the authors hope this chapter both updates and builds upon previous findings on stress and consumer behavior, as well as grounds future research on stress and well-being at the intersection of consumers and employees.

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Examining the Role of Well-being in the Marketing Discipline
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-946-6

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Article
Publication date: 1 October 1961

K.R. Honick

FLIGHT experience during recent years with roller strip maps driven from Doppler groundspeed data in an ‘along’ and ‘across’ track mode has demonstrated many of the…

Abstract

FLIGHT experience during recent years with roller strip maps driven from Doppler groundspeed data in an ‘along’ and ‘across’ track mode has demonstrated many of the undoubted advantages of a pictorial display of ground position.

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Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, vol. 33 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-2667

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Article
Publication date: 1 August 1969

THERE is a growing awareness in Britain of the importance of efficient management which percolates through every layer of a business to ensure that it is functioning…

Abstract

THERE is a growing awareness in Britain of the importance of efficient management which percolates through every layer of a business to ensure that it is functioning adequately in every department. The Harvard School of Business and similar organizations in the United States have made clear the great advantages to be reaped from taking management seriously in a competitive world. We may have been somewhat tardy in learning the lesson but today interest in it is widespread.

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Work Study, vol. 18 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0043-8022

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Book part
Publication date: 27 May 2008

Chung-Chi Wu, Shih-Yun Hsu and Wei-Ching Wang

The purpose of this investigation was to identify the association between Experience Use History (EUH) and types of substitution choices of hikers with the perspectives of…

Abstract

The purpose of this investigation was to identify the association between Experience Use History (EUH) and types of substitution choices of hikers with the perspectives of activity involvement and place attachment. On-site surveys were distributed by systematic sampling technique to obtain a representative sample of hikers with 51% response rate. The theoretical expectation was confirmed by these data. Findings indicated that among four EUH classifications, Veterans and Visitors who perceived higher levels of activity involvement and relatively lower levels of place attachment tended to make resource substitutability, while Locals who scored highest on place attachment chose to make temporal substitutability and Beginners who scored lower on both activity involvement and place attachment were apt to make both resource and activity substitutability. Suggestions and managerial implication are further discussed.

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Advances in Hospitality and Leisure
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-7623-1489-8

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 1937

No branch of aerodynamics is left untouched in this book and with so wide a scope the treatment has inevitably to be selective and condensed. The book is not for the…

Abstract

No branch of aerodynamics is left untouched in this book and with so wide a scope the treatment has inevitably to be selective and condensed. The book is not for the novice; to get full value from it the reader must have a working knowledge of the subject. To such a one its pages are stimulating and informative.

Details

Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, vol. 9 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-2667

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