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1 – 10 of 541Despite the growing recognition of the complex interplay between macroeconomic shock indexes and stock market dynamics, there is a significant research gap concerning their…
Abstract
Purpose
Despite the growing recognition of the complex interplay between macroeconomic shock indexes and stock market dynamics, there is a significant research gap concerning their interconnectedness and return spillovers in the context of the African stock market. This leaves much to be desired, given that the financial market in Africa is arguably one of the most preferred destinations for hedge and portfolio diversification (Alagidede, 2008; Anyikwa and Le Roux, 2020). Further, like other financial markets across the globe, the increased capital flow, coupled with declining information asymmetry in Africa, has deepened intra and inter-sectoral integration within and across national borders. This has, thus, increased the susceptibility of financial markets in Africa to spillover of shocks from other sectors and jurisdictions. Additionally, while previous studies have investigated these factors individually (Asafo-Adjei et al., 2020), with much emphasis on developed markets, an all-encompassing examination of spillovers and the connectedness between the aforementioned macroeconomic shock indexes and stock market returns remains largely unexplored. This study happens to be the first to consider the impact of each of the indexes on stock returns in Africa, with evidence spanning from May 2007 to April 2023, covering notable global crisis episodes such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.
Design/methodology/approach
This study employs the novel quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) model, making it the first of its kind in literature. By applying the QVAR, the study captures the potential nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between stock returns and the factors of interest across different quantiles, i.e. bearish, normal and bullish market conditions. Thus, the approach allows for a more accurate and nuanced examination of the tail dependence and extreme events, providing insights into the behaviour of the variables under extreme events.
Findings
The study revealed that connectedness and spillovers intensified under bearish and bullish market conditions. It was also observed that, among the macroeconomic shock indicators, FSI exerted the highest influence on stock returns in Africa in both bullish and normal market conditions. Across the various market regimes, the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) and the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) were net receiver of shocks.
Originality/value
This study happens to be the first to consider the impact of each of the indexes on stock returns in Africa, with evidence spanning from May 2007 to April 2023, covering notable global crisis episodes such as the GFC, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. On the methodology front, this study employs the novel QVAR model, making it one of the few studies in recent literature to apply the said method.
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The purpose of this study is to provide down-to-earth macroeconomic policy implications from the up-to-date estimates of the trade system in the OECD countries. Understanding on…
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to provide down-to-earth macroeconomic policy implications from the up-to-date estimates of the trade system in the OECD countries. Understanding on the linkages between the world trade mechanism and the macroeconomy is of utmost importance for the post-crisis managements of the world economy, the major points regarding the macroeconomic policy implications are as follows.
(1) For the majority of the OECD countries, fiscal expansion is likely to encourage the world trade when it is designed in the way to increase private consumption, in fact, only in a few countries fiscal expansion can increase the world trade volumes in its own right.
(2) Currency depreciation might be an attractive policy option for improving trade balances in the cases of the 9 OECD countries.
(3) There is a clear evidence of pricing-to-market with cross-country diversity, implying that import or domestic price robustness from the external forces.
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Yizhi Wang, Brian Lucey, Samuel Alexandre Vigne and Larisa Yarovaya
(1) A concern often expressed in relation to cryptocurrencies is the environmental impact associated with increasing energy consumption and mining pollution. Controversy remains…
Abstract
Purpose
(1) A concern often expressed in relation to cryptocurrencies is the environmental impact associated with increasing energy consumption and mining pollution. Controversy remains regarding how environmental attention and public concerns adversely affect cryptocurrency prices. Therefore, the paper aims to introduce the index of cryptocurrency environmental attention (ICEA), which aims to capture the relative extent of media discussions surrounding the environmental impact of cryptocurrencies. (2) The impacts of cryptocurrency environmental attention on long-term macro-financial markets and economic development remain part of undeveloped research fields. Based on these factors, the paper will further examine the effects of the ICEA on financial markets or economic developments.
Design/methodology/approach
(1) The paper introduces a new index to capture cryptocurrency environmental attention in terms of the cryptocurrency response to major related events through gathering a large amount of news stories around cryptocurrency environmental concerns – i.e. >778.2 million news items from the LexisNexis News & Business database, which can be considered as Big Data – and analysing that rich dataset using variety of quantitative techniques. (2) The vector error correction model (VECM) and structural VECM (SVECM) [impulse response function (IRF), forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) and historical decomposition (HD)] are useful for characterising the dynamic relationships between ICEA and aggregate economic activities.
Findings
(1) The paper has developed a new measure of attention to sustainability concerns of cryptocurrency markets' growth, ICEA. (2) ICEA has a significantly positive relationship with the UCRY indices, volatility index (VIX), Brent crude oil (BCO) and Bitcoin. (3) ICEA has a significantly negative relationship with the global economic policy uncertainty (GlobalEPU) and global temperature uncertainty (GTU). Moreover, ICEA has a significantly positive relationship with the industrial production (IP) in the short term, whilst having a significantly negative relationship in the long term. (4) The HD of the ICEA displays higher linkages between environmental attention, Bitcoin and UCRY indices around key events that significantly change the prices of digital assets.
Research limitations/implications
The ICEA is significant in the analysis of whether cryptocurrency markets are sustainable regarding energy consumption requirements and negative contributions to climate change. Understanding of the broader impacts of cryptocurrency environmental concerns on cryptocurrency market volatility, uncertainty and environmental sustainability should be considered and developed. Moreover, the paper aims to point out future research and policy legislation directions. Notably, the paper poses the question of how cryptocurrency can be made more sustainable and environmentally friendly and how governments' cryptocurrency policies can address the cryptocurrency markets.
Practical implications
(1) The paper develops a cryptocurrency environmental attention index based on news coverage that captures the extent to which environmental sustainability concerns are discussed in conjunction with cryptocurrencies. (2) The paper empirically investigates the impacts of cryptocurrency environmental attention on other financial or economic variables [cryptocurrency uncertainty (UCRY) indices, Bitcoin, VIX, GlobalEPU, BCO, GTU index and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development IP index]. (3) The paper provides insights into making the most effective use of online databases in the development of new indices for financial research.
Social implications
Whilst blockchain technology has a number of useful implications and has great potential to transform several industries, issues of high-energy consumption and CO2 pollution regarding cryptocurrency have become some of the main areas of criticism, raising questions about the sustainability of cryptocurrencies. These results are essential for both policy-makers and for academics, since the results highlight an urgent need for research addressing the key issues, such as the growth of carbon produced in the creation of this new digital currency. The results also are important for investors concerned with the ethical implications and environmental impacts of their investment choices.
Originality/value
(1) The paper provides an efficient new proxy for cryptocurrency and robust empirical evidence for future research concerning the impact of environmental issues on cryptocurrency markets. (2) The study successfully links cryptocurrency environmental attention to the financial markets, economic developments and other volatility and uncertainty measures, which has certain novel implications for the cryptocurrency literature. (3) The empirical findings of the paper offer useful and up-to-date insights for investors, guiding policy-makers, regulators and media, enabling the ICEA to evolve into a barometer in the cryptocurrency era and play a role in, for example, environmental policy development and investment portfolio optimisation.
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This study aims to analyze the effect of change in trading volume on the short-term mean reversion of the stock price in the Korean stock market. Through the variance ratio test…
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of change in trading volume on the short-term mean reversion of the stock price in the Korean stock market. Through the variance ratio test, this paper finds that the market shows the mean reversion pattern after 2000, but not before. This study also confirms that the mean reversion property is significantly reduced if the effect of change in trading volume is excluded from the return of a stock with a significant contemporaneous correlation between return and change in trading volume in the post-2000 market. The results appear in both the Korea Composite Stock Price Index and Korea Securities Dealers Automated Quotation. This phenomenon stems from the significance of the return response to change in trading volume per se and not the sign of the response. Additionally, the findings imply that the trading volume has a term structure because of the mean reversion of the trading volume and the return also has a partial term structure because of the contemporaneous correlation between return and change in trading volume. This conclusion suggests that considering the short-term impact of change in trading volume enables a more efficient observation of the market and avoidance of asset misallocation.
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This paper reports on how micro-learning design principles are being trialled in an Australian and a Malaysian university to make online courses more accessible and attractive…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper reports on how micro-learning design principles are being trialled in an Australian and a Malaysian university to make online courses more accessible and attractive, and a more positive experience, with the aim of increasing student success. Central to this approach is segmenting materials into “bite-size” instalments by way of short micro-lecture presentations and reducing other content. The aim of this “less is more” strategy is to reduce unnecessary cognitive load as an impediment to learning so that focus can shift to prioritising the most essential skills and content. The purpose of this trial is to explore the efficacy of micro-learning as a means for increasing student engagement and learning.
Design/methodology/approach
The trials involved a mixed mode methodology drawing on qualitative and ratings data from course satisfaction surveys and records on grades and completion.
Findings
To date, results have shown significant increases in student engagement and satisfaction, and also performance. Our application of micro-learning included reducing volume of content based on its practical value, use of novelty (e.g. infusing guest presenter input) and design of practical and collaborative student activities.
Research limitations/implications
Early results are encouraging regarding apparent utility for engaging learners and ease of application, i.e. implementability and transference potential. However, the rapidly expanding area of online learning requires further research to establish a well-validated evidence base for effective online teaching practices.
Practical implications
The findings are relevant to universities involved in online and blended learning. Micro-learning design methods show promise in being able to address major engagement barriers including cognitive overload.
Social implications
More students are struggling with learning in today's social environment brought about with the massification of higher education. Micro-learning seeks to address major barriers these learners face with methods that go beyond traditional teaching practices.
Originality/value
Findings here are encouraging and contribute to existing understanding on ways to increase learner engagement in the competitive and fast-growing area of online learning for universities globally.
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In this study, we analyzed whether the expiration day effect of domestic single stock futures exists. One-minute stock prices and trading volume by trader types is used. Data…
Abstract
In this study, we analyzed whether the expiration day effect of domestic single stock futures exists. One-minute stock prices and trading volume by trader types is used. Data ranges from May 2008 to June 2016. The expiration day effects are measured by price reversal, price shock, volatility effect, and volume effect. Since the expiration day of single stock futures is on the second Thursday of each month, we analyzed whether the expiration day effects differ between expiration Thursday and non-expiration Thursday. The price reversal effect is evident in Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Steel, and the price shock effect is evident for KT and KT&G. However, price reversals and price shocks are not generally found in other stocks. On the other hand, in most stocks (16 out of 22), the volatility effect variables were statistically significantly larger on the expiration Thursday than non-expiration Thursday. The expiration day effects of single stocks are evident in the trading volume. First of all, trading volume increased significantly on expiration Thursday than non-expiration Thursday. In particular, the trading-volume shares of institutional investors and foreign investors increase and the share of individual investors is decreasing. This suggests that the increase in trading volume on expiration Thursday is mainly due to the increase in the trading-volume shares of institutional investors and foreign investors, who are supposed to be in the information superiority. In addition, we can conjecture that the larger volatility level on expiration Thursday than on non-expiration Thursday may be due to institutional investors and foreign investors rather than individual investors.
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Ming Qi, Danyang Shi, Shaoyi Feng, Pei Wang and Amuji Bridget Nnenna
In this paper, the authors use the balance sheet data to investigate the interconnectedness and risk contagion effects in China's banking sector. They firstly study the network…
Abstract
Purpose
In this paper, the authors use the balance sheet data to investigate the interconnectedness and risk contagion effects in China's banking sector. They firstly study the network structure and centrality of the interbank network. Then, they investigate how and to what extent the credit shock and liquidity shock can lead to the risk propagation in the banking network.
Design/methodology/approach
Referring to the theoretical framework by Haldane and May (2011), this paper uses the network topology theory to analyze the contagion mechanism of credit shock and liquidity shock. Centrality measures and log-log plot are used to evaluate the interconnectedness of China's banking network.
Findings
The network topology has shown clustering effects of large banks in China's financial network. If the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) is in distress, the credit shock has little impact on the Chinese banking sector. However, the liquidity shock has shown more substantial effects than that of the credit shock. The discount rate and the rollover ratio play significant roles in determining the contagion effects. If the credit shock and liquidity shock coincide, the contagion effects will be amplified.
Research limitations/implications
The results of this paper reveal the network structure of China's interbank market and the resilience of banking system to the adverse shock. The findings are valuable for regulators to make policies and supervise the systemic important banks.
Originality/value
The balance sheet data of different types of banks are used to construct a bilateral exposure matrix. Based on the matrix, this paper investigates the knock-on effects of credit shock triggered by the debt default in the interbank market, the knock-on effects of liquidity effects, which is featured by “fire sale” of bank assets, and the contagion effects of combined shocks.
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Juan Carlos Cuestas and Merike Kukk
This paper aims to investigate the mutual dependence between housing prices and housing credit in Estonia, a country that experienced rapid debt accumulation during the 2000s and…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the mutual dependence between housing prices and housing credit in Estonia, a country that experienced rapid debt accumulation during the 2000s and big swings in house prices during that period.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use Bayesian econometric methods on data spanning 2000–2015.
Findings
The estimations show the interdependence between house prices and housing credit. More importantly, negative housing credit innovations had a stronger effect on house prices than positive ones.
Originality/value
The asymmetry in the linkage between housing credit and house prices highlights important policy implications, in that if central banks increase capital buffers during good times, they can release credit conditions during hard times to alleviate the negative spillover into house prices and the real economy.
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Tun-Ya Yang, Si-Yuan Huang, Wei-Che Tsai and Pei-Shih Weng
This paper aims to investigate the impact of day trading on market quality on the Taiwan stock market with the implementation of a unique policy change. This paper examines 396…
Abstract
This paper aims to investigate the impact of day trading on market quality on the Taiwan stock market with the implementation of a unique policy change. This paper examines 396 listed stocks from June 2015 to October 2016, a period when the stock market in Taiwan officially approved selected stocks for day trading for all investors. Within the sample period, the empirical findings show that day trading increases the bid–ask spread, price depth and stock volatility, indicating that day trading activities not only cause higher transaction costs and trading risk but also raise the market’s ability to absorb price impact. This paper considers two-stage regression and tests the exogenous shock because of further relaxation for day trading to deal with the possible endogenous problem and the main findings remain consistent. Since early 2014, the Taiwan stock market has been experiencing a distinct growth in trading volume after unwinding the day trading; however, the results show that the impacts of stock day trading on market quality are not all positive.
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Chang Hyeon Yun and Lee Seong Gu
In this study we examine the relationships between trader-type-specific trading volumes and the price volatility of the KOSPI200 stock index futures over the period of July 1997…
Abstract
In this study we examine the relationships between trader-type-specific trading volumes and the price volatility of the KOSPI200 stock index futures over the period of July 1997 through December 2001. The principal findings of this study are that the changes in trading volumes by foreign investors are positively associated with the return and the volatility of the index futures market. When trading volumes are decomposed into expected and unexpected components, unexpected shocks have more persistent effect on the volatility of the market than expected component. Meanwhile, individuals and domestic commercial investor seem to follow the lead made by foreign investors.
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