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Article
Publication date: 1 December 2005

Frederick (Fengming) Song, Hui Tan and Yunfeng Wu

The Chinese stock market is a typical emerging market with special features that are very different from those of mature markets. The objective of this study is to investigate…

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Abstract

Purpose

The Chinese stock market is a typical emerging market with special features that are very different from those of mature markets. The objective of this study is to investigate whether and how these features affect the volatility‐volume relation for Chinese stocks.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper examines the roles of the number of trades, size of trades, and share volume in explaining the volatility‐volume relation in the Shanghai Stock Exchange with high frequency trade data used.

Findings

The results confirm that the volatility‐volume relation is driven mainly by the number of trades on the Chinese stock market. The number of trades explains the volatility‐volume relation better than the size of trades. Furthermore, some results are obtained that differ from those of mature markets, such as the US market. The results show that the second largest sized trades affect the volatility more than other trades on the Chinese market.

Originality/value

The results show that, in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, informed traders camouflage their private information or manipulation behavior through the second largest sized trades. The results may have important implications for work explaining the volatility‐volume relation on the Chinese stock market, further providing a reference by which to regulate emerging markets.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 6 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 September 2007

Michael E. Drew, Madhu Veeraraghavan and Min Ye

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the profitability of momentum investment strategy and the predictive power of trading volume for equities listed in the Australian…

1478

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the profitability of momentum investment strategy and the predictive power of trading volume for equities listed in the Australian Stock Exchange.

Design/methodology/approach

Following the Lee and Swaminathan's approach, portfolios on past returns and past trading volume is constructed. In this approach, all stocks are ranked independently on the basis of past returns and past trading volume. The stocks are then assigned to one of five portfolios based on past returns and one of three portfolios based on trading volume over the same period.

Findings

A strong momentum effect for the Australian market during the period 1988 through 2002 is observed. Further, momentum plays an important role in providing information about stocks. Past trading volume appears to predict both the magnitude and persistence of price momentum.

Research limitations/implications

Substantial momentum observed in monthly stock returns has investment implications. Abnormal returns vary from 0.3 to 7 per cent per month in the intermediate horizon.

Originality/value

This study provides an out of sample evidence by examining the relationship between “trading volume” (measured by the turnover ratio) and “momentum” strategies in an Australian setting.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 33 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 February 2014

Shiyong Yoo

In this study, we explore the empirical relationship between trading volume and volatility among KOSPI200 index stock market, futures and options markets. In particular, in…

22

Abstract

In this study, we explore the empirical relationship between trading volume and volatility among KOSPI200 index stock market, futures and options markets. In particular, in explaining the volatility of each market, the trading in other markets, as well as the trading volume of other markets, also served as explanatory variables. In other words, cross-market effects of trading volume by investor types are analyzed. The empirical results show that there exist the cross-market effects of the relationship between trading volume and volatility in deeply integrated financial markets such as KOSPI200 index stock, futures and options markets. That is, the volatility of one market is explained by the trading volume of trader types in other financial markets. And, overall options trading increases the volatility of each market, while the overall futures trading volume of foreign investors reduce the volatility of each market. Trading volume of Individual investors does not reduce the volatilities of KOSPI200 index and futures markets. That is, trading volume of Individual investors in stock, futures, and options markets increase the volatilities of stock and futures. This implies that foreign investors are informed traders, whereas individual investors are liquidity traders.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies, vol. 22 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2713-6647

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 9 September 2020

Hon-Wei Leow and Wee-Yeap Lau

This study examines the impact of the trading volume on Initial Public Offering (IPO) initial return in the context of an emerging market from January 2006 to December 2016…

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the trading volume on Initial Public Offering (IPO) initial return in the context of an emerging market from January 2006 to December 2016. Models consist of hierarchical and multiple regressions have been evaluated. Our results show, firstly, IPO provides an average of 21.90% of initial return to investors on the first trading day, 9.08% of return on the second day of trading, and 7.12% of return on the third day of return. Secondly, there is a positive relationship between the oversubscription ratio and initial return and no relationship between trading volume and initial return on the first three trading day. Thirdly, the trading volume does not act as a moderator that worsens the relationship between the oversubscription ratio and initial return. Lastly, this study shows that investors should actively participate in the subsequent trading of an IPO. Higher participation will bring greater liquidity and shareholder wealth in the stock market. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study on the moderating effect of trading volume on IPO initial return in an emerging market.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-363-5

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 25 March 2010

Eric C. Lin

When a stock is added into the S&P 500 Index, it in effect becomes cross-listed in the Index derivative markets. When index-based trading strategies such as index arbitrage are…

Abstract

When a stock is added into the S&P 500 Index, it in effect becomes cross-listed in the Index derivative markets. When index-based trading strategies such as index arbitrage are executed, the component stocks are directly affected by such trading. We find increased volatility of daily returns, plus increased trading volume for the underlying stocks. Utilizing a list of S&P 500 Index composition changes over the period September 1976 to December 2005, we study the market-adjusted volume turnover and return variance of the stocks added to and deleted from the Index. The results indicate that after the introduction of the S&P 500 Index futures and options contracts, stocks added to the S&P 500 experience statistically significant increase in both trading volume and return volatility. Both daily and monthly return variances increase following index inclusion. When stocks are removed from the index, though, neither volatility of returns nor trading volume experiences any significant change. So, we have new evidence showing that Index inclusion changes a firm's return volatility, and supporting the destabilization hypothesis.

Details

Research in Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-726-4

Article
Publication date: 15 December 2023

Mondher Bouattour and Anthony Miloudi

The purpose of this paper is to bridge the gap between the existing theoretical and empirical studies by examining the asymmetric return–volume relationship. Indeed, the authors…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to bridge the gap between the existing theoretical and empirical studies by examining the asymmetric return–volume relationship. Indeed, the authors aim to shed light on the return–volume linkages for French-listed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) compared to blue chips across different market regimes.

Design/methodology/approach

This study includes both large capitalizations included in the CAC 40 index and listed SMEs included in the Euronext Growth All Share index. The Markov-switching (MS) approach is applied to understand the asymmetric relationship between trading volume and stock returns. The study investigates also the causal impact between stock returns and trading volume using regime-dependent Granger causality tests.

Findings

Asymmetric contemporaneous and lagged relationships between stock returns and trading volume are found for both large capitalizations and listed SMEs. However, the causality investigation reveals some differences between large capitalizations and SMEs. Indeed, causal relationships depend on market conditions and the size of the market.

Research limitations/implications

This paper explains the asymmetric return–volume relationship for both large capitalizations and listed SMEs by incorporating several psychological biases, such as the disposition effect, investor overconfidence and self-attribution bias. Future research needs to deepen the analysis especially for SMEs as most of the literature focuses on large capitalizations.

Practical implications

This empirical study has fundamental implications for portfolio management. The findings provide a deeper understanding of how trading activity impact current returns and vice versa. The authors’ results constitute an important input to build and control trading strategies.

Originality/value

This paper fills the literature gap on the asymmetric return–volume relationship across different regimes. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the present study is the first empirical attempt to test the asymmetric return–volume relationship for listed SMEs by using an accurate MS framework.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 23 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 December 2023

CheChun Hsu

Recent studies suggested the ratio of option to stock volume reflected the private information. Informed traders were drawn to the options market for its leverage effect and…

Abstract

Purpose

Recent studies suggested the ratio of option to stock volume reflected the private information. Informed traders were drawn to the options market for its leverage effect and relatively low transaction costs. Informed traders use different intervals of option moneyness to execute their strategies. The question is which types of option moneyness were traded by informed traders and what information was reflected in the market. In this study, the authors focused on this question and constructed a method for capturing the activity of informed traders in the options and stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors constructed the daily measure, moneyness option trading volume to stock trading volume ratio (MOS), to capture the activity of informed traders in the market. The authors formed quintile portfolios sorted with respect to the moneyness option to stock trading volume ratio and provided the capital asset pricing model and Fama–French five-factor alphas. To determine whether MOS had predictive ability on future stock returns after controlling for company characteristic effects, the authors formed double-sorted portfolios and performed Fama–Macbeth regressions.

Findings

The authors found that the firms in the lowest moneyness option trading volume to stock trading volume ratio for put quintile outperform the highest quintile by 0.698% per week (approximately 36% per year). The firms in the highest moneyness option trading volume to stock trading volume ratio for call quintile outperform the lowest quintile by 0.575% per week (approximately 30% per year).

Originality/value

The authors first propose the measures, moneyness option trading volume to stock trading volume ratio, that combined with the trading volume and option moneyness. The authors provide evidence that the measures have the predictive ability to the future stock returns.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 2 December 2003

Louis Gagnon and G.Andrew Karolyi

Using intraday prices for the S&P 500 and Nikkei Stock Average stock indexes and aggregate trading volume for the New York and Tokyo Stock Exchanges, we show how short-run…

Abstract

Using intraday prices for the S&P 500 and Nikkei Stock Average stock indexes and aggregate trading volume for the New York and Tokyo Stock Exchanges, we show how short-run comovements between national stock market returns vary over time in a way related to the trading volume and liquidity in those markets. We frame our analysis in the context of the heterogeneous-agent models of trading developed by Campbell, Grossman and Wang (1993) and Blume, Easley and O’Hara (1994) and Wang (1994) which predict that trading volume acts as a signal of the information content of a given price move. While we find that there exists significant short-run dependence in returns and volatility between Japan and the U.S., we offer new evidence that these return “spillovers” are sensitive to interactions with trading volume in those markets. The cross-market effects with volume are revealed in both close-to-open and open-to-close returns and often exhibit non-linear patterns that are not predicted by theory.

Details

The Japanese Finance: Corporate Finance and Capital Markets in ...
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-246-7

Book part
Publication date: 21 August 2019

Peter Huaiyu Chen, Kasing Man, Junbo Wang and Chunchi Wu

We examine the informational roles of trades and time between trades in the domestic and overseas US Treasury markets. A vector autoregressive model is employed to assess the…

Abstract

We examine the informational roles of trades and time between trades in the domestic and overseas US Treasury markets. A vector autoregressive model is employed to assess the information content of trades and time duration between trades. We find significant impacts of trades and time duration between trades on price changes. Larger trade size induces greater price revision and return volatility, and higher trading intensity is associated with a greater price impact of trades, a faster price adjustment to new information and higher volatility. Higher informed trading and lower liquidity contribute to larger bid–ask spreads off the regular daytime trading period.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-285-6

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 May 2023

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

For policymakers and participants of financial markets, predictions of trading volumes of financial indices are important issues. This study aims to address such a prediction…

Abstract

Purpose

For policymakers and participants of financial markets, predictions of trading volumes of financial indices are important issues. This study aims to address such a prediction problem based on the CSI300 nearby futures by using high-frequency data recorded each minute from the launch date of the futures to roughly two years after constituent stocks of the futures all becoming shortable, a time period witnessing significantly increased trading activities.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to answer questions as follows, this study adopts the neural network for modeling the irregular trading volume series of the CSI300 nearby futures: are the research able to utilize the lags of the trading volume series to make predictions; if this is the case, how far can the predictions go and how accurate can the predictions be; can this research use predictive information from trading volumes of the CSI300 spot and first distant futures for improving prediction accuracy and what is the corresponding magnitude; how sophisticated is the model; and how robust are its predictions?

Findings

The results of this study show that a simple neural network model could be constructed with 10 hidden neurons to robustly predict the trading volume of the CSI300 nearby futures using 1–20 min ahead trading volume data. The model leads to the root mean square error of about 955 contracts. Utilizing additional predictive information from trading volumes of the CSI300 spot and first distant futures could further benefit prediction accuracy and the magnitude of improvements is about 1–2%. This benefit is particularly significant when the trading volume of the CSI300 nearby futures is close to be zero. Another benefit, at the cost of the model becoming slightly more sophisticated with more hidden neurons, is that predictions could be generated through 1–30 min ahead trading volume data.

Originality/value

The results of this study could be used for multiple purposes, including designing financial index trading systems and platforms, monitoring systematic financial risks and building financial index price forecasting.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

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