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1 – 10 of 30To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia…
Abstract
Purpose
To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Design/methodology/approach
The study utilizes the “dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH)” approach of Gabauer (2020). The volatility of the markets is calculated following the approach of Parkinson (1980). The sample dataset comprises the daily volatility of the stock and exchange markets for 35 months, from November 2019 to September 2022.
Findings
The study confirms the existence of contagion effects among member countries. Volatility spillover between exchange and stock markets is low within the country but substantial across borders. Russian contribution increased significantly during the conflict with Ukraine, and other countries also witnessed a surge in the spillover index during the pandemic and war.
Research limitations/implications
It adds to the body of literature by emphasizing the necessity of comprehending the economies' behavior and interdependence. Offers insightful information to decision-makers who must be more watchful regarding the financial crisis and its regional spillover.
Originality/value
The study is the first to explore the contagion of volatility among the BRICS countries during the two biggest crisis periods of the decade.
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Mumtaz Ali, Ahmed Samour, Foday Joof and Turgut Tursoy
This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables.
Findings
The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.
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Barkha Dhingra, Shallu Batra, Vaibhav Aggarwal, Mahender Yadav and Pankaj Kumar
The increasing globalization and technological advancements have increased the information spillover on stock markets from various variables. However, there is a dearth of a…
Abstract
Purpose
The increasing globalization and technological advancements have increased the information spillover on stock markets from various variables. However, there is a dearth of a comprehensive review of how stock market volatility is influenced by macro and firm-level factors. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by systematically reviewing the major factors impacting stock market volatility.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a combination of bibliometric and systematic literature review techniques. A data set of 54 articles published in quality journals from the Australian Business Deans Council (ABDC) list is gathered from the Scopus database. This data set is used to determine the leading contributors and contributions. The content analysis of these articles sheds light on the factors influencing market volatility and the potential research directions in this subject area.
Findings
The findings show that researchers in this sector are becoming more interested in studying the association of stock markets with “cryptocurrencies” and “bitcoin” during “COVID-19.” The outcomes of this study indicate that most studies found oil prices, policy uncertainty and investor sentiments have a significant impact on market volatility. However, there were mixed results on the impact of institutional flows and algorithmic trading on stock volatility, and a consensus cannot be established. This study also identifies the gaps and paves the way for future research in this subject area.
Originality/value
This paper fills the gap in the existing literature by comprehensively reviewing the articles on major factors impacting stock market volatility highlighting the theoretical relationship and empirical results.
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Nousheen Tariq Bhutta, Anum Shafique, Muhammad Arsalan and Hifsa Hussain Raja
This study aims to test the mean and volatility spill over from the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) market to the stock markets of G7 countries. The study used…
Abstract
This study aims to test the mean and volatility spill over from the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) market to the stock markets of G7 countries. The study used ARMA-GARCH model to predict the results. The findings of the study reveal that as the spill over exists in the markets, however the mean volatility does not exist showing efficiency of the market as significant results depict that past prices cannot predict the future prices. It provides new insights for the international portfolio investors and policymakers by shedding light on how cross-markets correlate in two different markets.
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Prince Kumar Maurya, Rohit Bansal and Anand Kumar Mishra
This paper aims to investigate the dynamic volatility connectedness among 13 G20 countries by using the volatility indices.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the dynamic volatility connectedness among 13 G20 countries by using the volatility indices.
Design/methodology/approach
The connectedness approach based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregression model has been used to investigate the linkage. The period of study is from 1 January 2014 to 20 April 2023.
Findings
This analysis revealed that volatility connectedness among the countries during COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine conflict had increased significantly. Furthermore, analysis has indicated that investors had not anticipated the World Health Organization announcement of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. Contrarily, investors had anticipated the Russian invasion of Ukraine, evident in a significant rise in volatility before and after the invasion. In addition, the transmission of volatility is from developed to developing countries. Developed countries are NET volatility transmitters, whereas developing countries are NET volatility receivers. Finally, the ordinary least square regression result suggests that the volatility connectedness index is informative of stock market dynamics.
Originality/value
The connectedness approach has been widely used to estimate the dynamic connectedness among market indices, cryptocurrencies, sectoral indices, enegy commodities and metals. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, none of the previous studies have directly used the volatility indices to measure the volatility connectedness. Hence, this study is the first of its kind that has used volatility indices to measure the volatility connectedness among the countries.
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Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Jose Perez-Montiel and Carles Manera
Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic…
Abstract
Purpose
Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.
Design/methodology/approach
To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.
Findings
The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.
Originality/value
This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.
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Brahim Gaies and Najeh Chaâbane
This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and novelty is to shed light on the non-linear and asymmetric characteristics of dependence, causality, and contagion within various time and frequency domains. Specifically, the authors scrutinize how financial instability in the U.S. and EU interacts with their respective green stock markets, while also examining the cross-impact on each other's green equity markets. The analysis is carried out over short-, medium- and long-term horizons and under different market conditions, ranging from bearish and normal to bullish.
Design/methodology/approach
This study breaks new ground by employing a model-free and non-parametric approach to examine the relationship between the instability of the global financial system and the green equity market performance in the U.S. and EU. This study's methodology offers new insights into the time- and frequency-varying relationship, using wavelet coherence supplemented with quantile causality and quantile-on-quantile regression analyses. This advanced approach unveils non-linear and asymmetric causal links and characterizes their signs, effectively distinguishing between bearish, normal, and bullish market conditions, as well as short-, medium- and long-term horizons.
Findings
This study's findings reveal that financial instability has a strong negative impact on the green stock market over the medium to long term, in bullish market conditions and in times of economic and extra-economic turbulence. This implies that green stocks cannot be an effective hedge against systemic financial risk during periods of turbulence and euphoria. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that U.S. financial instability not only affects the U.S. green equity market, but also has significant spillover effects on the EU market and vice versa, indicating the existence of a Euro-American contagion mechanism. Interestingly, this study's results also reveal a positive correlation between financial instability and green equity market performance under normal market conditions, suggesting a possible feedback loop effect.
Originality/value
This study represents pioneering work in exploring the non-linear and asymmetric connections between financial instability and the Euro-American stock markets. Notably, it discerns how these interactions vary over the short, medium, and long term and under different market conditions, including bearish, normal, and bullish states. Understanding these characteristics is instrumental in shaping effective policies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including access to clean, affordable energy (SDG 7), and to preserve the stability of the international financial system.
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This study is the first to investigate the causal relationship between Bitcoin and equity price returns by sectors. Previous studies have focused on aggregated indices such as…
Abstract
Purpose
This study is the first to investigate the causal relationship between Bitcoin and equity price returns by sectors. Previous studies have focused on aggregated indices such as S&P500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones, but this study uses mixed frequency and disaggregated data at the sectoral level. This allows the authors to examine the nature, direction and strength of causality between Bitcoin and equity prices in different sectors in more detail.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper utilizes an Unrestricted Asymmetric Mixed Data Sampling (U-AMIDAS) model to investigate the effect of high-frequency Bitcoin returns on a low-frequency series equity returns. This study also examines causality running from equity to Bitcoin returns by sector. The sample period covers United States (US) data from 3 Jan 2011 to 14 April 2023 across nine sectors: materials, energy, financial, industrial, technology, consumer staples, utilities, health and consumer discretionary.
Findings
The study found that there is no causality running from Bitcoin to equity returns in any sector except for the technology sector. In the tech sector, lagged Bitcoin returns Granger cause changes in future equity prices asymmetrically. This means that falling Bitcoin prices significantly influence the tech sector during market pullbacks, but the opposite cannot be said during market rallies. The findings are consistent with those of other studies that have established that during market pullbacks, individual asset prices have a tendency to decline together, whereas during market rallies, they have a tendency to rise independently. In contrast, this study finds evidence of causality running from all sectors of the equity market to Bitcoin.
Practical implications
The findings have significant implications for investors and fund managers, emphasizing the need to consider the asymmetric causality between Bitcoin and the tech sector. Investors should avoid excessive exposure to both Bitcoin and tech stocks in their portfolio, as this may lead to significant drawdowns during market corrections. Diversification across different asset classes and sectors may be a more prudent strategy to mitigate such risks.
Originality/value
The study's findings underscore the need for investors to pay close attention to the frequency and disaggregation of data by sector in order to fully understand the true extent of the relationship between Bitcoin and the equity market.
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Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang
Understandings of house prices and their interrelationships have undoubtedly drawn a great amount of attention from various market participants. This study aims to investigate the…
Abstract
Purpose
Understandings of house prices and their interrelationships have undoubtedly drawn a great amount of attention from various market participants. This study aims to investigate the monthly newly-built residential house price indices of seventy Chinese cities during a 10-year period spanning January 2011–December 2020 for understandings of issues related to their interdependence and synchronizations.
Design/methodology/approach
Analysis here is facilitated through network analysis together with topological and hierarchical characterizations of price comovements.
Findings
This study determines eight sectoral groups of cities whose house price indices are directly connected and the price synchronization within each group is higher than that at the national level, although each shows rather idiosyncratic patterns. Degrees of house price comovements are generally lower starting from 2018 at the national level and for the eight sectoral groups. Similarly, this study finds that the synchronization intensity associated with the house price index of each city generally switches to a lower level starting from early 2019.
Originality/value
Results here should be of use to policy design and analysis aiming at housing market evaluations and monitoring.
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The purpose of this study is to reveal the dynamics of house prices and sales in spatial and temporal dimensions across British regions.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to reveal the dynamics of house prices and sales in spatial and temporal dimensions across British regions.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper incorporates two empirical approaches to describe the behaviour of property prices across British regions. The models are applied to two different data sets. The first empirical approach is to apply the price diffusion model proposed by Holly et al. (2011) to the UK house price index data set. The second empirical approach is to apply a bivariate global vector autoregression model without a time trend to house prices and transaction volumes retrieved from the nationwide building society.
Findings
Identifying shocks to London house prices in the GVAR model, based on the generalized impulse response functions framework, I find some heterogeneity in responses to house price changes; for example, South East England responds stronger than the remaining provincial regions. The main pattern detected in responses and characteristic for each region is the fairly rapid fading of the shock. The spatial-temporal diffusion model demonstrates the presence of a ripple effect: a shock emanating from London is dispersed contemporaneously and spatially to other regions, affecting prices in nondominant regions with a delay.
Originality/value
The main contribution of this work is the betterment in understanding how house price changes move across regions and time within a UK context.
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