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Article
Publication date: 15 November 2022

Muhammad Tahir, Haslindar Ibrahim, Badal Khan and Riaz Ahmed

This study aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility and the risk of expropriation on the decision to repatriate foreign earnings.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility and the risk of expropriation on the decision to repatriate foreign earnings.

Design/methodology/approach

The current study uses secondary data for foreign subsidiaries of US multinational corporations (MNCs) in 40 countries from 2004 to 2016. We use the dynamic panel difference generalised method of moments (GMM) to estimate the dynamic earnings repatriation model.

Findings

The findings show that foreign subsidiaries of US MNCs in countries with volatile exchange rates tend to repatriate more earnings to the parent company. The findings also reveal that a greater risk of expropriation in the host country leads to the higher repatriation of foreign earnings to the parent company. The findings support the notion that MNCs use the earnings repatriation policy as a means of mitigating risks arising in the host country.

Practical implications

Practical implications for modern managers include shedding light on how financial managers can use earnings repatriation policy to mitigate exchange rate risk and the risk of expropriation in the host country. The findings also contain policy implications at the host country level that how exchange rate volatility and risk of expropriation can reduce foreign investment in the host country.

Originality/value

This study adds to the earnings repatriation literature by analysing the direct effect of exchange rate volatility on earnings repatriation decisions, as opposed to the impact of the exchange rate itself, as suggested by previous research. Hence, the findings broaden our understanding of the direct influence of exchange rate volatility on the decision to repatriate foreign earnings. The present study also examines the role of the risk of expropriation in determining earnings repatriation policy, which has received little attention in prior empirical studies.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 November 2018

Denghui Chen

The purpose of this paper is to present theoretical and empirical support that the fear component associated with rare events has an impact on risk premium and market returns.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present theoretical and empirical support that the fear component associated with rare events has an impact on risk premium and market returns.

Design/methodology/approach

Extension of jump-diffusion model to extract the fear component from representative agent risk aversion, Standard VAR and impulse response function analysis, Event study analysis.

Findings

The model implicates that investor fear of tail jumps in the financial market impacts equity risk premium. The empirical findings show both positive stock and monetary policy shocks decrease investor’s fear. It can be attributed to that a bullish stock market and an increase in interest rate reflects expanding economy, and it leads to a decrease in fear. Moreover, a surprise decline in the expected short-term rate has a mixed impact on tail risk aversion. A plausible explanation is that investors believe a surprise drop in an expected short-term rate reflects a fast deteriorating economic outlook during unconventional monetary policy period.

Originality/value

This paper provides theoretical framework to decompose risk aversion into two separate components: one component associated with daily volatility, and the fear component associated with rare events. The study uses risk premiums decomposed from Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index as proxies for the two components of risk aversion, and then utilizes standard value at risk and event study analysis to show the fear component plays a role in risk premium and market return.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 19 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 July 2022

Monsurat Ayojimi Salami, Harun Tanrivermiş and Yeşim Tanrivermiş

This study aims to examine the performance and volatility of Turkey Real Estate Investment Trusts (Turkish REITs) as the world is adjusting to the new normal situation in every…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the performance and volatility of Turkey Real Estate Investment Trusts (Turkish REITs) as the world is adjusting to the new normal situation in every aspect of REITs' business activities.

Design/methodology/approach

The prices of REITs were acquired from 26 Turkish REITs in this study, but owing to autocorrelation difficulties, 14 Turkish REITs were employed in the analysis. The ten-year long-term bond of the Turkish Government was also utilized and the period of data obtained was based on availability. The performance of Turkish REITs was evaluated using Sharpe's ratio and Treynor's ratio, and the volatility was assessed using MGARCH-BEKK.

Findings

The authors found out that Turkish REITs are constantly underperforming and the REITs' returns remain highly volatile and persistent. In addition, findings showed evidence of volatility clustering and the asymmetric impact of shocks. This study further revealed the uniqueness of each of the Turkish REITs due to the lack of evidence of multicollinearity.

Research limitations/implications

However, the limitation of this study is the constraint in obtaining more macro-economic variables of more than ten-years of Turkey's Government bond and the study focused mainly on Turkish REITs.

Practical implications

The result suggests that since Turkish REITs are not mandatory to payout 90% of taxable earnings as dividends, high performance and an appropriate risk management approach are expected. The need for timely revealing performance of T-REITs and associated uncertainty may trigger better performance as discussed in the relationship between disclosure and performance which is recently emphasized in a recent study by Koelbl (2020). With current performance and associated uncertainty in Turkish REITs, the need to protect Turkish REITs investors is highly essential. The result further educates REIT investors that diversification benefits of REITs tend to reduce in extremely risky situations.

Originality/value

This is the first study in the context of Turkish REITs that comprehensively integrated market capitalization of REITs and simultaneous evaluation of performance and the volatility of the Turkish REITs as the world adjusts to the new normal.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 41 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 9 November 2023

Ezra Valentino Purba and Zaäfri Ananto Husodo

This study aimed to know the effect of cross-sectional risk, which comprises business-specific risk and stock market volatility, as a variable for estimating macroeconomic risk in…

Abstract

This study aimed to know the effect of cross-sectional risk, which comprises business-specific risk and stock market volatility, as a variable for estimating macroeconomic risk in Indonesia. This study observes public companies in Indonesia and Indonesian macroeconomic data from 2004 to 2020. In this study, the author uses term spread as the dependent variable that reflects macroeconomic risk. The cross-sectional risk comprises financial friction (FF), cash flow (CF), debt–service ratio, and stock market volatility as independent variables. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model method, this study shows that business-specific and stock market risk can estimate macroeconomic risk, so that it becomes an early signal of economic shock, such as recession or high inflation, in the future. The model in this study also examines the cross-sectional risk relationship with other macroeconomic indicators, such as the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), money supply (M0), and Indonesia’s trade balance (TB).

Details

Macroeconomic Risk and Growth in the Southeast Asian Countries: Insight from Indonesia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-043-8

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2002

ROBERT G. TOMPKINS

The depth and breadth of the market for contingent claims, including exotic options, has expanded dramatically. Regulators have expressed concern regarding the risks of exotics to…

Abstract

The depth and breadth of the market for contingent claims, including exotic options, has expanded dramatically. Regulators have expressed concern regarding the risks of exotics to the financial system, due to the difficulty of hedging these instruments. Recent literature focuses on the difficulties in hedging exotic options, e.g., liquidity risk and other violations of the standard Black‐Scholes model. This article provides insight into hedging problems associated with exotic options: 1) hedging in discrete versus continuous time, 2) transaction costs, 3) stochastic volatility, and 4) non‐constant correlation. The author applies simulation analysis of these problems to a variety of exotics, including Asian options, barrier options, look‐back options, and quanto options.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 3 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Abstract

Details

Understanding Financial Risk Management, Second Edition
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-794-3

Article
Publication date: 19 May 2022

Fahim Afzal, Tonmoy Toufic Choudhury and Muhammad Kamran

Because of the growing financial market integration, China’s stock market’s volatility spillover effect has gradually increased. Traditional strategies do not capture stock…

Abstract

Purpose

Because of the growing financial market integration, China’s stock market’s volatility spillover effect has gradually increased. Traditional strategies do not capture stock volatility in dependence and dynamic conditions. Therefore, this study aims to find an effective stochastic model to predict the volatility spillover effect in the dynamic stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

To assess the time-varying dynamics and volatility spillover, this study has used an integrated approach of dynamic conditional correlation model, copula and extreme-value theory. A daily log-returns of three leading indices of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) from the period of 2009 to 2019 is used in the modeling of value-at-risk (VaR) for volatility estimation. The Student’s t copula has been selected based on maximum likelihood estimation and Akaike’s information criteria values of all the copulas using the goodness-of-fit test.

Findings

The model results show stronger dependency between all major portfolios of PSX and SSE, with the parametric value of 0.98. Subsequently, the results of dependence structure positively estimate the spillover effect of SSE over PSX. Furthermore, the back-testing results show that the VaR model performs well at 99% and 95% levels of confidence and gives more accurate estimates upon the maximum level of confidence.

Practical implications

This study is helpful for the investment managers to manage the risk associated to portfolios under dependence conditions. Moreover, this study is also helpful for the researchers in the field of financial risk management who are trying to improve the returns by addressing the issues of volatility estimations.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a practical model to manage the volatility spillover effect in dependence conditions between as well as across the financial markets.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 December 2021

Mustapha Ishaq Akinlaso, Aroua Robbana and Nura Mohamed

This paper aims to investigate the risk-return and volatility spillover within the Tunisian stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic analyzing both the Islamic and conventional…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the risk-return and volatility spillover within the Tunisian stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic analyzing both the Islamic and conventional stocks’ performance.

Design/methodology/approach

Both symmetric (GARCH and GARCH-M) and asymmetric (Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH) models are used to analyze the market returns and volatility response. Standard and Poor’s (S&P) index has been used to test both the Islamic and conventional stocks within the Tunisian stock market.

Findings

The findings suggest that both Tunisia Islamic and conventional stock markets are highly persistent; however, the conventional stock index showed a negative return spillover on the Islamic stocks during the pandemic. The conventional stock index has also shown a higher exposure to risk for a lower amount of return, and evidence of potential diversification benefit between both indexes was found during the pandemic, whereas the Islamic market showed a positive leverage effect, indicating a positive correlation between past return and future return; the conventional index implied a negative leverage effect.

Originality/value

The value of this paper emerges in studying three main aspects that are specific to the Tunisian stock market. This includes COVID-19 effect of return spillovers, volatility transmission across both conventional and Islamic stock market within the local financial market.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. 13 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 December 2022

Zeliha Can Ergün, Efe Caglar Cagli and M. Banu Durukan Salı

This study aims to investigate the interconnectedness across the risk appetite of distinct investor types in Borsa Istanbul. This study also examines the causal impact of global…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the interconnectedness across the risk appetite of distinct investor types in Borsa Istanbul. This study also examines the causal impact of global implied volatility indices on the risk appetite of these investor groups.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use a novel time-varying frequency connectedness framework of Chatziantoniou et al. and a new time-varying Granger causality test with a recursive evolving procedure by Shi et al. over June 2008 and July 2022.

Findings

The results show a high level of interconnectedness across the risk appetite of different investor types. The sizable spillovers to domestic types of investors either occur from professional or foreign investors, indicating the long-term dominant effect of foreign and more qualified investors on the domestic investors in Borsa Istanbul. The authors provide significant evidence of causality from the global implied volatility to the Borsa Istanbul risk appetite indices, which are getting stronger after the COVID-19 outbreak.

Originality/value

Unlike the previous studies, the authors analyze the risk appetite sub-indices of various types of investors to reveal behavioral distinctions and interconnectedness across them. The authors use a novel econometric framework to assess investors’ risk appetite in different investment horizons in a time-varying system. Together with volatility index (VIX), the authors also use volatilities of oil (OVX), gold (GVZ) and currency (EVZ), considering the information transmission not only from stock markets but also energy, metals and currency markets. The present data set covers significant financial crises, socioeconomic events and the COVID-19 outbreak.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 40 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 June 2018

Scott J. Niblock and Elisabeth Sinnewe

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether superior risk-adjusted returns can be generated using monthly covered call option strategies in large capitalized Australian equity…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether superior risk-adjusted returns can be generated using monthly covered call option strategies in large capitalized Australian equity portfolios and across varying market volatility conditions.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors construct monthly in-the-money (ITM) and out-of-the-money (OTM) S&P/ASX 20 covered call portfolios from 2010 to 2015 and use standard and alternative performance measures. An assessment of variable levels of market volatility on risk-adjusted return performance is also carried out using the spread between implied and realized volatility indexes.

Findings

The results of this paper show that covered call writing produces similar nominal returns at lower risk when compared against the standalone buy-and-hold portfolio. Both standard and alternative performance measures (with the exception of the upside potential ratio) demonstrate that covered call portfolios produce superior risk-adjusted returns, particularly when written deeper OTM. The 36-month rolling regressions also reveal that deeper OTM portfolios deliver greater risk-adjusted returns in the majority of the sub-periods investigated. This paper also establishes that volatility spread variation may be a driver of performance for covered call writing in Australia.

Originality/value

The authors suggest that deeper OTM covered call strategies based on large capitalized portfolios create value for investors/fund managers in the Australian stock market and can be executed in volatile market conditions. Such strategies are particularly useful for those seeking market neutral asset allocation and less risk exposure in volatile market environments.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 35 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

21 – 30 of over 17000