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Book part
Publication date: 9 November 2023

Ezra Valentino Purba and Zaäfri Ananto Husodo

This study aimed to know the effect of cross-sectional risk, which comprises business-specific risk and stock market volatility, as a variable for estimating macroeconomic risk in…

Abstract

This study aimed to know the effect of cross-sectional risk, which comprises business-specific risk and stock market volatility, as a variable for estimating macroeconomic risk in Indonesia. This study observes public companies in Indonesia and Indonesian macroeconomic data from 2004 to 2020. In this study, the author uses term spread as the dependent variable that reflects macroeconomic risk. The cross-sectional risk comprises financial friction (FF), cash flow (CF), debt–service ratio, and stock market volatility as independent variables. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model method, this study shows that business-specific and stock market risk can estimate macroeconomic risk, so that it becomes an early signal of economic shock, such as recession or high inflation, in the future. The model in this study also examines the cross-sectional risk relationship with other macroeconomic indicators, such as the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), money supply (M0), and Indonesia’s trade balance (TB).

Details

Macroeconomic Risk and Growth in the Southeast Asian Countries: Insight from Indonesia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-043-8

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 April 2023

Liu Hong and Tianpeng Zhou

This paper aims to propose an alternative method to measure idiosyncratic volatility and test whether the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle holds in commodity futures markets.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose an alternative method to measure idiosyncratic volatility and test whether the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle holds in commodity futures markets.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper proposes a partially new measure of idiosyncratic volatility in commodity futures markets based on the Schwartz and Smith (2000) short-term/long-term model. This model enables us to capture systematic risks of commodity futures markets in a parsimonious way.

Findings

Using a sample of futures contracts for 20 commodities from 1973 to 2022, this paper demonstrates that idiosyncratic volatility is more significant than systematic volatility in commodity futures markets, and that the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle does not hold in these markets. This paper also performs robustness tests to investigate whether the puzzle holds during subsample periods when commodity markets are more volatile and find consistent results. This study highlights the differences between commodity futures markets and equity markets and emphasizes the importance of investigating idiosyncratic volatility in commodity futures markets.

Originality/value

The contributions of this paper are threefold. First, this paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the idiosyncratic volatility of commodity futures returns. Second, this paper constructs a partially new measure of idiosyncratic volatility in commodity futures markets. Finally, this paper also contributes to the literature on the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle and demonstrates that the puzzle may not exist in commodity futures markets.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 49 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 January 2022

Mwangele Kaluba and Yudhvir Seetharam

While the momentum anomaly is prevalent in South Africa, few have examined the reasons influencing it. This study examines whether momentum profits vary through time and are…

Abstract

Purpose

While the momentum anomaly is prevalent in South Africa, few have examined the reasons influencing it. This study examines whether momentum profits vary through time and are affected by the state of the market and market volatility between 1998 and 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors consider combinations of portfolio construction, such as the lookback period, weighting scheme, measure of volatility and the volatility window period. They further examine the interaction of momentum with sentiment, default risk and semi-deviation as a measure of risk, as a means of testing whether behavioural factors have significant influence.

Findings

The results generally show that neither volatility nor market state has explanatory power on momentum profits.

Originality/value

These results make the momentum anomaly in South Africa an even greater mystery than before as they do not conform to the existing literature from developed economies. The authors do, however, find that default risk is a significant predictor of momentum profits, which is a useful additional factor for those fund managers who utilise momentum strategies. This implies that a fundamental factor, default risk, is a potential explanation for the market-related momentum anomaly.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 November 2022

Ali Yavuz Polat

This study proposes a framework based on salience theory and shows that focusing on one type of risk (idiosyncratic or systemic) can explain overpricing of securities ex ante, and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study proposes a framework based on salience theory and shows that focusing on one type of risk (idiosyncratic or systemic) can explain overpricing of securities ex ante, and resales at low prices during crisis periods.

Design/methodology/approach

The author consider an overlapping generations (OLG) model where each generation lives for two periods and there is no population growth. Agents (investors) start their lives with an endowment W > 0 and have mean-variance utility. They invest their endowment when young and consume when old. Each period, the young investors optimally choose their portfolio from different risky assets acquired from the old generation, all assumed to be in fixed supply.

Findings

The author show that investor salience bias can explain excess volatility of asset prices and the resulting fire-sales in periods of financial turmoil. A change in salience – from one component (idiosyncratic) to the other (systemic) – will generate excess volatility. Interestingly, higher risk aversion generally exacerbates the excess volatility of prices. Moreover, the model predicts that if a big systemic shock hits the financial system, due to salience bias the price of systemic assets falls sharply. This relates to the observed fire-sales of assets during the global financial crisis.

Practical implications

The proposed model and results suggest that there may be a scope for intervention in financial markets during turbulences. In terms of ex ante policies the study suggests that investors and regulator should use better risk assessment technologies.

Originality/value

This is the first study constructing a tractable model based on the argument that investor salience may exacerbate the excess volatility of prices during financial downturns. The author relate salience to two types of risk; idiosyncratic and systemic and assume that investors' risk perception is biased towards the type of risk that is currently salient based on prior beliefs or past data. The author show that the diversification fallacy of the precrisis period, where seemingly safe assets were overpriced, can be explained by agents overweighing idiosyncratic risk and ignoring systemic risk.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 50 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 November 2023

Barkha Dhingra, Shallu Batra, Vaibhav Aggarwal, Mahender Yadav and Pankaj Kumar

The increasing globalization and technological advancements have increased the information spillover on stock markets from various variables. However, there is a dearth of a…

Abstract

Purpose

The increasing globalization and technological advancements have increased the information spillover on stock markets from various variables. However, there is a dearth of a comprehensive review of how stock market volatility is influenced by macro and firm-level factors. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by systematically reviewing the major factors impacting stock market volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a combination of bibliometric and systematic literature review techniques. A data set of 54 articles published in quality journals from the Australian Business Deans Council (ABDC) list is gathered from the Scopus database. This data set is used to determine the leading contributors and contributions. The content analysis of these articles sheds light on the factors influencing market volatility and the potential research directions in this subject area.

Findings

The findings show that researchers in this sector are becoming more interested in studying the association of stock markets with “cryptocurrencies” and “bitcoin” during “COVID-19.” The outcomes of this study indicate that most studies found oil prices, policy uncertainty and investor sentiments have a significant impact on market volatility. However, there were mixed results on the impact of institutional flows and algorithmic trading on stock volatility, and a consensus cannot be established. This study also identifies the gaps and paves the way for future research in this subject area.

Originality/value

This paper fills the gap in the existing literature by comprehensively reviewing the articles on major factors impacting stock market volatility highlighting the theoretical relationship and empirical results.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 October 2023

Milad Armani Dehghani, Dionysios Karavidas, Alexandra Rese and Fulya Acikgoz

With the rise of cryptocurrency and its influence on the financial industry, this paper aims to explore cryptocurrency affordances that lead to approach–avoidance behavioral…

Abstract

Purpose

With the rise of cryptocurrency and its influence on the financial industry, this paper aims to explore cryptocurrency affordances that lead to approach–avoidance behavioral intentions for non-users (potential) and the intention to continue use for users (actual), drawing upon affordance theory and chasm theory.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors collected data from 480 potential and actual users in Germany and used maximum likelihood structural equation modeling (ML-SEM) to analyze it. In particular, the data consisted of 301 cryptocurrency users in Germany\ the authors used ML-SEM to test the post-adoption model. Additionally, logistic regression was utilized to determine the dominant actual usage method (store of value or medium of exchange) for various cryptocurrency coins.

Findings

According to the study's results, the perceived value benefits have a positive impact on the behavioral intention of potential users to adopt cryptocurrency, and they influence the intention of actual users to continue using it. However, both perceived volatility and financial risk tolerance are the most crucial factors hindering cryptocurrency adoption, whether in the pre-adoption or the post-adoption stage.

Originality/value

This is the first study to reveal cryptocurrency affordances and examine their effect on behavioral intentions toward cryptocurrency adoption based on the differences between non-users (potential) and users (actual). Furthermore, the authors explore how cryptocurrency holders perceive and invest in different coins (e.g. NFTs), which sheds light on factors such as financial risk tolerance that affect their decision making.

Details

Information Technology & People, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-3845

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 October 2023

Siong Min Foo, Nazrul Hisyam Ab Razak, Fakarudin Kamarudin, Noor Azlinna Binti Azizan and Nadisah Zakaria

This study comprehensively aims to review the key influential and intellectual aspects of spillovers between Islamic and conventional financial markets.

Abstract

Purpose

This study comprehensively aims to review the key influential and intellectual aspects of spillovers between Islamic and conventional financial markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the bibliometric and content analysis methods using the VOSviewer software to analyse 52 academic documents derived from the Web of Sciences (WoS) between 2015 and June 2022.

Findings

The results demonstrate the influential aspects of spillovers between Islamic and conventional financial markets, including the leading authors, journals, countries and institutions and the intellectual aspects of literature. These aspects are synthesised into four main streams: research between stock indexes; studies between stock indexes, oil and precious metal; works between Sukuk, bond and indexes; and empirical studies review. The authors also propose future research directions in spillovers between Islamic and conventional financial markets.

Research limitations/implications

Our study is subject to several limitations. Firstly, the authors only used the WoS database. Secondly, the study only includes papers and reviews written in English from the WoS. This study assists academic scholars, practitioners and regulatory bodies in further exploring the suggested issues in future studies and improving and predicting economic and financial stability.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no extant empirical studies have been conducted in this area of research interest.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2022

Edson Zambon Monte

The main goal of this paper is to investigate whether there is long-memory behavior in the CBOE Brazil ETF volatility index (named here VIXBR). As structural breaks may create a…

Abstract

Purpose

The main goal of this paper is to investigate whether there is long-memory behavior in the CBOE Brazil ETF volatility index (named here VIXBR). As structural breaks may create a spurious long-range dependence, the presence of structural breaks is also gauged.

Design/methodology/approach

The study considers the period from October 2011 to March 2021, using daily data. To test the long-memory behavior, three empirical approaches are adopted: GPH, ELW and robust GPH (RGPH) estimator. To estimate the structural break points adopted to date the subsamples, the ICSS algorithm is used.

Findings

Results considering the total period (TP) and subsamples show that the breaks did not create a spurious long-memory behavior and together with the rolling estimation, reveal strong evidence of the long-range dependence in the CBOE Brazil ETF volatility index. The higher degree of persistent of the VIXBR series suggests an extended period of increased uncertainty that agents need consider when making their investment decision.

Research limitations/implications

As possible extension of this study is to investigate the behavior of long memory and structural breaks for different frequencies (weekly, monthly, among others).

Practical implications

The presence of long-range dependence in the CBOE Brazil ETF volatility index reveals that the past information is important for the predictability of risks, and therefore, can help to protect against market risks, which has important implications regarding the future decisions of economic agents (for example, policy makers and investors).

Originality/value

Brazil is an emerging capital market (ECM) that has attracted a great deal of attention from investors and investment funds seeking to diversify its assets. This paper contributes to the empirical financial literature, by studying the long-memory behavior of the CBOE Brazil ETF volatility index, considering possible structural breaks. To the best of knowledge, this has not been done so far.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 September 2023

Jianhua Tan, Kam C. Chan, Samuel Chang and Bin Wang

This paper aims to examine the effect of carbon emissions on audit fees. The authors hypothesize that firms in cities with higher carbon emission levels have lower reporting…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the effect of carbon emissions on audit fees. The authors hypothesize that firms in cities with higher carbon emission levels have lower reporting transparency, higher return volatility or are subject to higher reputation risk, causing them to be charged higher audit fees for auditing services.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use panel data of 25,960 firm-year observations from a sample of Chinese firms. The carbon emission data for each Chinese city are obtained from the China Emission Accounts and Datasets for Emerging Economies. This paper adopts a multiple regression model to study the impact of carbon emissions on audit fees.

Findings

The authors find that firms located in cities with higher carbon emission levels and firms with more carbon emissions are charged, on average, a higher audit fee. This audit fee effect of carbon risk is transmitted by lessened information transparency and elevated financial risk within these firms. This paper shows that auditors consider carbon risk in their audit fee decisions and other factors that could influence audit risk and effort.

Originality/value

This study draws a connection between carbon emissions and audit fees. It is especially relevant due to the increasing importance of environmental factors in the audit risk assessment. In addition, the findings suggest that a firm implementing a proactive environmental strategy benefits the economy and decreases the costs to the firm for services such as auditing.

Details

Managerial Auditing Journal, vol. 38 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0268-6902

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 September 2023

Mustafa Raza Rabbani, M. Kabir Hassan, Syed Ahsan Jamil, Mohammad Sahabuddin and Muneer Shaik

In this study, the authors analyze the impact of geopolitics risk on Sukuk, Islamic and composite stocks, oil and gold markets and portfolio diversification implications during…

Abstract

Purpose

In this study, the authors analyze the impact of geopolitics risk on Sukuk, Islamic and composite stocks, oil and gold markets and portfolio diversification implications during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict period.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used a mix of wavelet-based approaches, including continuous wavelet transformation and discrete wavelet transformation. The analysis used data from the Geopolitical Risk index (GP{R), Dow Jones Sukuk index (SUKUK), Dow Jones Islamic index (DJII), Dow Jones composite index (DJCI), one of the top crude oil benchmarks which is based on the Europe (BRENT) (oil fields in the North Sea between the Shetland Island and Norway), and Global Gold Price Index (gold) from May 31, 2012, to June 13, 2022.

Findings

The results of the study indicate that during the COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine conflict period geopolitical risk (GPR) was in the leading position, where BRENT confirmed the lagging relationship. On the other hand, during the COVID-19 pandemic period, SUKUK, DJII and DJCI are in the leading position, where GPR confirms the lagging position.

Originality/value

The present study is unique in three respects. First, the authors revisit the influence of GPR on global asset markets such as Islamic stocks, Islamic bonds, conventional stocks, oil and gold. Second, the authors use the wavelet power spectrum and coherence analysis to determine the level of reliance based on time and frequency features. Third, the authors conduct an empirical study that includes recent endogenous shocks generated by health crises such as the COVID-19 epidemic, as well as shocks caused by the geopolitical danger of a war between Russia and Ukraine.

Highlights

  1. We analyze the impact of geopolitics risk on Sukuk, Islamic and composite stocks, oil and gold markets and portfolio diversification implications during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict period.

  2. The results of the wavelet-based approach show that Dow Jones composite and Islamic indexes have observed the highest mean return during the study period.

  3. GPR and BRENT are estimated to have the highest amount of risk throughout the observation period.

  4. Dow Jones Sukuk, Islamic and composite stock show similar trend of volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic period and comparatively gold observes lower variance during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict.

We analyze the impact of geopolitics risk on Sukuk, Islamic and composite stocks, oil and gold markets and portfolio diversification implications during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict period.

The results of the wavelet-based approach show that Dow Jones composite and Islamic indexes have observed the highest mean return during the study period.

GPR and BRENT are estimated to have the highest amount of risk throughout the observation period.

Dow Jones Sukuk, Islamic and composite stock show similar trend of volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic period and comparatively gold observes lower variance during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict.

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