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1 – 10 of over 2000
Article
Publication date: 27 September 2021

Thomas Dimpfl and Dalia Elshiaty

Cryptocurrency markets are notoriously noisy, but not all markets might behave in the exact same way. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate which one of the…

Abstract

Purpose

Cryptocurrency markets are notoriously noisy, but not all markets might behave in the exact same way. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate which one of the cryptocurrency markets contributes the most to the common volatility component inherent in the market.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper extracts each of the cryptocurrency's markets' latent volatility using a stochastic volatility model and, subsequently, models their dynamics in a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model. The authors use the refinement of Lien and Shrestha (2009, J. Futures Mark) to come up with unique Hasbrouck (1995, J. Finance) information shares.

Findings

The authors’ findings indicate that Bitfinex is the leading market for Bitcoin and Ripple, while Bitstamp dominates for Ethereum and Litecoin. Based on the dominant market for each cryptocurrency, the authors find that the volatility of Bitcoin explains most of the volatility among the different cryptocurrencies.

Research limitations/implications

The authors’ findings are limited by the availability of the cryptocurrency data. Apart from Bitcoin, the data series for the other cryptocurrencies are not long enough to ensure the precision of the authors’ estimates.

Originality/value

To date, only price discovery in cryptocurrencies has been studied and identified. This paper extends the current literature into the realm of volatility discovery. In addition, the authors propose a discrete version for the evolution of a markets fundamental volatility, extending the work of Dias et al. (2018).

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 22 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 June 2021

Saji Thazhugal Govindan Nair

This paper aims to investigate price responses and volatility spillovers between commodity spot and futures markets. The study ultimately seeks the evidence-based claims on the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate price responses and volatility spillovers between commodity spot and futures markets. The study ultimately seeks the evidence-based claims on the efficiency of the long run and short run horizontal price transmissions from futures markets to spot markets.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used the most recent daily price series of pepper, cardamom and rubber, during the period 2004–2019, use “cointegration-ECM-GARCH framework” and verify the persisting validity of the “expectancy theory” of commodity futures pricing.

Findings

The results offer overwhelming evidence of futures market dominance in the price discoveries and volatility spillovers in spot markets. However, this paper finds asymmetric responses between cash and futures prices across markets. The hedging efficiency of futures contracts is commodities specific’ where spices futures are more efficient than the rubber futures.

Practical implications

The study passes on vital information to the producers and traders of spices and rubber who have a potential interest in the use of futures contracts to make profits from arbitrage between futures and cash markets.

Originality/value

The paper is unique in terms of understanding asymmetric price linkages in markets for plantation crops.

Details

Indian Growth and Development Review, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8254

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 January 2018

DeokJong Jeong and Sunyoung Park

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the effect of the increasing connectedness among financial institutions in the Korean financial market, as it affects the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the effect of the increasing connectedness among financial institutions in the Korean financial market, as it affects the market microstructure in the stock market. Thus this work, first, analyzes the trend and characteristics of connectedness in the Korean financial sector. This work then demonstrates the impacts of connectedness on volatility and price discovery in the stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

The entire Korean financial sector is analyzed from January 1990 to July 2015, including the periods of the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2007/2008 global financial crisis. This paper quantifies the connectedness between financial institutions using network methodology. Densely connectedness specifically refers to the cases in which a node experiences strong-lagged return spillover from and/or to itself.

Findings

Connectedness is established as an important determinant of stock price discovery. This paper illustrates that connectedness increases on significant economic events such as the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2007/2008 global financial crisis. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates that the more densely connected a particular financial institution, the more volatile the stock price and the less accurate the stock price quality.

Research limitations/implications

Understanding the financial system from a network perspective has been on the rise after the 2007/2008 global financial crisis. This work helps regulators and policy makers understand the full implications of introducing new policies that can more closely connect financial institutions.

Originality/value

This paper precisely captures financial institutions’ connectedness by including all types of financial institutions at the micro level. Additionally, this paper links connectedness to market microstructure in the stock market.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 44 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 March 2020

Imtiaz Sifat and Azhar Mohamad

Despite regulatory claims of straitening volatility and preventing crashes, evidences on circuit breakers' ability to achieve so are nonconclusive. While previous scholars studies…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite regulatory claims of straitening volatility and preventing crashes, evidences on circuit breakers' ability to achieve so are nonconclusive. While previous scholars studies general performances of circuit breakers, the authors examine whether Malaysian price limits aggravate volatility, impede price discovery, and interfere with trading activities in both tranquil and stressful periods.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses a combination of parametric and nonparametric techniques consistent with Kim and Rhee (1997) to examine the major ex-post hypotheses in circuit breaker research.

Findings

For calm markets, the authors find significant success of upper limits in tempering volatility with low trading interference. Lower limits show mixed results. Conversely, in crisis markets limits fare poorly in nearly all aspects, particularly for lower limits.

Practical implications

Ramifications of the paper's findings are discussed through highlighting the asymmetric nature of price limits' ex-post effects. The paper also contributes to regulatory debate surrounding the quest for an optimal price limit.

Originality/value

The paper is the first of its kind in documenting long-horizon evidence of ex-post effects of a wide-band price limit. Moreover, the paper is unique in its approach in bifurcating circuit breaker performance along the line of market stability periods.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 47 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 November 2018

Varuna Kharbanda and Archana Singh

Corporate treasurers manage the currency risk of their organization by hedging through futures contracts. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of hedging by…

Abstract

Purpose

Corporate treasurers manage the currency risk of their organization by hedging through futures contracts. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of hedging by US currency futures contracts by taking into account the efficiency of the currency market.

Design/methodology/approach

The static models for calculating hedge ratio are as popular as dynamic models. But the main disadvantage with the static models is that they do not consider important properties of time series like autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity of the residuals and also ignore the cointegration of the market variables which indicate short-run market disequilibrium. The present study, therefore, measures the hedging effectiveness in the US currency futures market using two dynamic models – constant conditional correlation multivariate generalized ARCH (CCC-MGARCH) and dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH (DCC-MGARCH).

Findings

The study finds that both the dynamic models used in the study provide similar results. The relative comparison of CCC-MGARCH and DCC-MGARCH models shows that CCC-MGARCH provides better hedging effectiveness result, and thus, should be preferred over the other model.

Practical implications

The findings of the study are important for the company treasurers since the new updated Indian accounting standards (Ind-AS), applicable from the financial year 2016–2017, make it mandatory for the companies to evaluate the effectiveness of hedges. These standards do not specify a quantitative method of evaluation but provide the flexibility to the companies in choosing an appropriate method which justifies their risk management objective. These results are also useful for the policy makers as they can specify and list the appropriate methods for evaluating the hedge effectiveness in the currency market.

Originality/value

Majorly, the studies on Indian financial market limit themselves to either examining the efficiency of that market or to evaluate the effectiveness of the hedges undertaken. Moreover, most of such works focus on the stock market or the commodity market in India. This is one of the first studies which bring together the concepts of efficiency of the market and effectiveness of the hedges in the Indian currency futures market.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 13 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 December 2023

Qing Liu, Yun Feng and Mengxia Xu

This paper aims to investigate whether the establishment of commodity futures can effectively hedge systemic risk in the spot network, given the context of financialization in the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate whether the establishment of commodity futures can effectively hedge systemic risk in the spot network, given the context of financialization in the commodity futures market.

Design/methodology/approach

Utilizing industry association data from the Chinese commodity market, the authors identify systemically important commodities based on their importance in the production process using multiple graph analysis methods. Then the authors analyze the effect of listing futures on the systemic risk in the spot market with the staggered difference-in-differences (DID) method.

Findings

The findings suggest that futures contracts help reduce systemic risks in the underlying spot network. Systemic risk for a commodity will decrease by approximately 5.7% with the introduction of each corresponding futures contract, since the hedging function of futures reduces the timing behavior of firms in the spot market. Establishing futures contracts for upstream commodities lowers systemic risks for downstream commodities. Energy commodities, such as crude oil and coal, have higher systemic importance, with the energy sector dominating systemic importance, while some chemical commodities also have considerable systemic importance. Meanwhile, the shortest transmission path for risk propagation is composed of the energy industry, chemical industry, agriculture/metal industry and final products.

Originality/value

The paper provides the following policy insights: (1) The role of futures contracts is still positive, and future contracts should be established upstream and at more systemically important nodes in the spot production chain. (2) More attention should be paid to the chemical industry chain, as some chemical commodities are systemically important but do not have corresponding futures contracts. (3) The risk source of the commodity spot market network is the energy industry, and therefore, energy-related commodities should continue to be closely monitored.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 August 2023

Sivakumar Sundararajan and Senthil Arasu Balasubramanian

This study empirically explores the intraday price discovery mechanism and volatility transmission effect between the dual-listed Indian Nifty index futures traded simultaneously…

Abstract

Purpose

This study empirically explores the intraday price discovery mechanism and volatility transmission effect between the dual-listed Indian Nifty index futures traded simultaneously on the onshore Indian exchange, National Stock Exchange (NSE) and offshore Singapore Exchange (SGX) and its spot market by using high-frequency data.

Design/methodology/approach

This study applies the vector error correction model to analyze the lead-lag relationship in price discovery among three markets. The contributions of individual markets in assimilating new information into prices are measured using various measures, Hasbrouck's (1995) information share, Lien and Shrestha's (2009) modified information share and Gonzalo and Granger's (1995) component share. Additionally, the Granger causality test is conducted to determine the causal relationship. Lastly, the BEKK-GARCH specification is employed to analyze the volatility transmission.

Findings

This study provides robust evidence that Nifty futures lead the spot in price discovery. The offshore SGX Nifty futures consistently ranked first in contributing to price discovery, followed by onshore NSE Nifty futures and finally by the spot. Empirical results also show unidirectional causality and volatility transmission from Nifty futures to spot, as well as bidirectional causal relationship and volatility spillovers between NSE and SGX Nifty futures. These novel findings provide fresh insights into the informational efficiency of the dual-listed Indian Nifty futures, which is distinct from previous literature.

Practical implications

These findings can potentially help market participants, policymakers, stock exchanges and regulators.

Originality/value

Unlike previous studies in this area, this is the first study that empirically examines the intraday price discovery mechanism and volatility spillover between the dual-listed futures markets and its spot market using 5-min overlapping price data and trivariate econometric models.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 May 2015

Sanjay Sehgal, Wasim Ahmad and Florent Deisting

The purpose of this paper is to examine the price discovery and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of four currencies (namely, USD/INR, EURO/INR, GBP/INR and…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the price discovery and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of four currencies (namely, USD/INR, EURO/INR, GBP/INR and JPY/INR) and between futures prices of both stock exchanges namely, Multi-Commodity Stock Exchange (MCX-SX) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The study applies cointegration test of Johansen’s along with VECM to investigate the price discovery. GARCH-BEKK model is used to examine the volatility spillover between spot and futures and between futures prices. The other two models namely, constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation are used to demonstrate the constant and time-varying correlations. In order to confirm the volatility spillover results, the study also applies test of directional spillovers suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012).

Findings

The results of the study show that there is long-term equilibrium relationship between spot and futures and between futures markets. Between futures and spot prices, futures price appears to lead the spot price in the short-run. Volatility spillover results indicate that the movement of volatility spillover takes place from futures to spot in the short-run while spot to futures found in the long-run. However, the results of between futures markets exhibit the dominance of MCX-SX over NSE in terms of volatility spillovers. By and large, the findings of the study indicate the important role of futures market in price discovery as well as volatility spillovers in India’s currency market.

Practical implications

The results highlight the role of futures market in the information transmission process as it appears to assimilate new information quicker than spot market. Hence, policymakers in emerging markets such as India should focus on the development of necessary institutional and fiscal architecture, as well as regulatory reforms, so that the currency market trading platforms can achieve greater liquidity and efficiency.

Originality/value

Due to recent development of currency futures market, there is dearth of literature on this subject. With the apparent importance of currency market in recent time, this study attempts to study the efficient behavior of currency market by way of examining the price discovery and volatility spillovers between spot and futures and between futures prices of four currencies traded on two platforms. The study has strong implications for India’s stock market especially at the time when its currency is under great strain owing to the adverse impact of global financial crisis.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 42 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 July 2014

Mantu Kumar Mahalik, Debashis Acharya and M. Suresh Babu

– The purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the price discovery and volatility spillovers in Indian spot-futures commodity markets.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the price discovery and volatility spillovers in Indian spot-futures commodity markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The study has used four futures and spot indices of Multi-Commodity Exchange, Mumbai. The study also employs vector error correction model (VECM) and bivariate exponential Garch model (EGARCH) to analyze the price discovery and volatility spillovers in Indian spot-futures commodity market.

Findings

The VECM shows that agriculture future price index (LAGRIFP), energy future price index (LENERGYFP) and aggregate commodity index (LCOMDEXFP) effectively serve the price discovery function in the spot market implying that there is a flow of information from future to spot commodity markets but the reverse causality does not exist. There is no cointegrating relationship between metal future price index (LMETALFP) and metal spot price index (LMETALSP). Besides the bivariate EGARCH model indicates that although the innovations in one market can predict the volatility in another market, the volatility spillovers from future to the spot market are dominant in the case of LENERGY and LCOMDEX index while LAGRISP acts as a source of volatility toward the agri-futures market.

Research limitations/implications

The results are aggregate in nature. Further study at disaggregated level will provide further insights on behavior of specific commodity prices and the price discovery process.

Originality/value

The paper provides useful information about the evolution and structures of futures commodity trading in India, related literature and relevant methodology concerning the hypotheses.

Details

Journal of Advances in Management Research, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0972-7981

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 May 2020

Neharika Sobti

The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the possible consequences of ban on futures trading of agriculture commodities in India by examining three critical issues: first, the…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the possible consequences of ban on futures trading of agriculture commodities in India by examining three critical issues: first, the author explores whether price discovery dominance changes between futures and spot in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phase both in the long run and short run. Second, the author examines the impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading on its underlying spot volatility for five sample cases of agriculture commodities (Wheat, Sugar, Soya Refined Oil, Rubber and Chana) using both parametric and non-parametric tests. Third, the author revisits the destabilization hypothesis in the light of ban on futures trading by examining the impact of unexpected component of liquidity of futures on spot volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

The author uses widely adopted methodology of co-integration to examine long-run relationship between spot and futures, while the short-run relationship is investigated using vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality to test price discovery in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases. The second objective is explored using a combination of parametric and non-parametric tests such as Welch one-way ANOVA and Kruskal–Wallis test, respectively, to gauge the impact of ban on futures trading on spot volatility along with post hoc tests to investigate pairwise comparison of spot volatility among three phases (pre-ban, ban and post-relaunch) using Dunn Test. In addition, extensive robustness test is undertaken by adopting augmented E-GARCH model to ascertain the impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading on spot volatility. The third objective is investigated using Granger causality test between spot volatility and unexpected component of liquidity of futures estimated using Hodrick and Prescott (HP) filter to re-visit the destabilization hypothesis.

Findings

The author found extensive evidence for the dominance of futures market in the price discovery of agriculture commodities both in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases in India. The ban on futures trading is found to have a destabilizing impact on spot volatility as evident from the findings of Wheat, Sugar and Rubber. In addition, it is observed that spot volatility was highest during the ban phase as compared to the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases for all four commodities barring Chana. The author found that destabilisation hypothesis holds true during the pre ban phase, while weakening of destabilization hypothesis is observed in the post-relaunch phase as unexpected futures liquidity has no role in driving the spot volatility.

Originality/value

This study is a novel attempt to empirically examine the potential impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading of agriculture commodities on two key market quality dimensions – price discovery and spot volatility. In addition, destabilization hypothesis is revisited to investigate the impact of futures trading on spot volatility during the pre-ban and post-relaunch period.

Details

South Asian Journal of Business Studies, vol. 9 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-628X

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 2000