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1 – 10 of over 1000Using volatility cones as the estimate of actual volatility instead of GARCH models, the purpose of this paper is to explore whether volatility arbitrage strategy can provide…
Abstract
Purpose
Using volatility cones as the estimate of actual volatility instead of GARCH models, the purpose of this paper is to explore whether volatility arbitrage strategy can provide positive profits and how the transaction costs existed in the real market affect the effectiveness of volatility arbitrage strategy.
Design/methodology/approach
A number of hedging approaches proposed to improve the hedging results and final returns of Black-Scholes model are analyzed and compared.
Findings
The general finding is that volatility arbitrage strategy can provide satisfactory returns based on the samples in Chinese market. Regarding transaction costs, the variable bandwidth delta and delta tolerance approach showed better results. Besides, choosing futures together with ETFs as hedging underlying can increase the VaR for better risk management.
Practical implications
This paper offers a new method for volatility arbitrage in Chinese financial market.
Originality/value
This paper researches the profitability of the volatility arbitrage strategy on ETF 50 options using volatility cones method for the first time. This method has advantage over the point-wise estimation such as GARCH model and stochastic volatility model.
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Sang Buhm Hahn and Seung Hyun Oh
This study investigates the impact of program trading on the market volatility by separating the volatility into long-run and short-run components using VA-CEGARCH model. This…
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of program trading on the market volatility by separating the volatility into long-run and short-run components using VA-CEGARCH model. This approach allows us to observe the two channels through which the program trading affects the market volatility. We have following results. Program trading and non-program trading both have no impact on the long-run component but do increase short-run component. In case of short-run component‘ program trading has a larger impact compared to non-program trading. Secondly, in both daily and intra-day analysis, arbitrage program trading is found to have a larger impact on short-run components than non-arbitrage program trading.
Thirdly, ARCH effects are found in short-run components of daily analysis and long-run components of intra-day analysis. And the volatility’s asymmetric responses to good or bad news are introduced through long-run components. What is noteworthy is the fact that non-arbitrage program trading is actually found to reduce short-run volatility in the intra-day analysis.
Which means that non-arbitrage program trading, such as hedging transactions, helps promote intra-day market stability. Our findings mean that the short-run component is the main channel by which program trading produce unnecessary market volatility.
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The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to equity trading that is based on cointegration. If there are long-run equilibria among financial assets, a…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to equity trading that is based on cointegration. If there are long-run equilibria among financial assets, a cointegration-based trading strategy can exploit profitable opportunities by capturing mean-reverting short-run deviations.
Design/methodology/approach
First, the author introduces an equity indexing technique to form cointegration tracking portfolios that are able to replicate an index effectively. The author later enhances this tracking methodology in order to construct more complex portfolio-trading strategies that can be approximately market neutral. The author monitors the performance of a wide range of trading strategies under different specifications, and conducts an in-depth sensitivity analysis of the factors that affect the optimal portfolio construction. Several statistical-arbitrage tests are also carried out in order to examine whether the profitability of the cointegration-based trading strategies could indicate a market inefficiency.
Findings
The author shows that under certain parameter specifications, an efficient tracking portfolio is able to produce similar patterns in terms of returns and volatility with the market. The author also finds that a successful long-short strategy of two cointegration portfolios can yield an annualized return of more than 8 percent, outperforming the benchmark and also demonstrating insignificant correlation with the market. Even though some cointegration-based pairs-trading strategies can consistently generate significant cumulative profits, yet they do not seem to converge to risk-less arbitrages, and thus the hypothesis of market efficiency cannot be rejected.
Originality/value
The primary contribution of the research lies within the detailed analysis of the factors that affect the tracking-portfolio performance, thus revealing the optimal conditions that can lead to enhanced returns. Results indicate that cointegration can provide the means to successfully reproducing the risk-return profile of a benchmark and to implementing market-neutral strategies with consistent profitability. By testing for statistical arbitrage, the author also provides new evidence regarding the connection between the profit accumulation of cointegration-based pairs-trading strategies and market efficiency.
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When a stock is added into the S&P 500 Index, it in effect becomes cross-listed in the Index derivative markets. When index-based trading strategies such as index arbitrage are…
Abstract
When a stock is added into the S&P 500 Index, it in effect becomes cross-listed in the Index derivative markets. When index-based trading strategies such as index arbitrage are executed, the component stocks are directly affected by such trading. We find increased volatility of daily returns, plus increased trading volume for the underlying stocks. Utilizing a list of S&P 500 Index composition changes over the period September 1976 to December 2005, we study the market-adjusted volume turnover and return variance of the stocks added to and deleted from the Index. The results indicate that after the introduction of the S&P 500 Index futures and options contracts, stocks added to the S&P 500 experience statistically significant increase in both trading volume and return volatility. Both daily and monthly return variances increase following index inclusion. When stocks are removed from the index, though, neither volatility of returns nor trading volume experiences any significant change. So, we have new evidence showing that Index inclusion changes a firm's return volatility, and supporting the destabilization hypothesis.
– This paper aims to investigate the volatility transmission and dynamics in China Securities Index (CSI) 300 index futures market.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the volatility transmission and dynamics in China Securities Index (CSI) 300 index futures market.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper applies the bivariate Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models using high frequency data. Estimates for the bivariate GARCH models are obtained by maximising the log-likelihood of the probability density function of a conditional Student’s t distribution.
Findings
This empirical analysis yields a few interesting results: there is a one-way feedback of volatility transmission from the CSI 300 index futures to spot returns, suggesting index futures market leads the spot market; volatility response to past bad news is asymmetric for both markets; volatility can be intensified by the disequilibrium between spot and futures prices; and trading volume has significant impact on volatility for both markets. These results reveal new evidence on the informational efficiency of the CSI 300 index futures market compared to earlier studies.
Originality/value
This paper shows that the CSI 300 index futures market has improved in terms of price discovery one year after its existence compared to its early days. This is an important finding for market participants and regulators. Further, this study considers the volatility response to news, market disequilibrium and trading volume. The findings are thus useful for financial risk management.
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I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to…
Abstract
I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to fit financial time series and at the same time provide powerful tools to test hypotheses formulated in the light of financial theories, and to generate positive economic value, as measured by risk-adjusted performances, in dynamic asset allocation applications. The chapter also reviews the role of Markov switching dynamics in modern asset pricing models in which the no-arbitrage principle is used to characterize the properties of the fundamental pricing measure in the presence of regimes.
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Honglei Yan, Suigen Yang and shengmin zhao
The purpose of this paper is to study the pricing efficiency of convertible bonds and arbitrage opportunities between the convertible bonds and the underlying stocks thus improve…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to study the pricing efficiency of convertible bonds and arbitrage opportunities between the convertible bonds and the underlying stocks thus improve market efficiency.
Design/methodology/approach
Using nonparametric fixed effect panel data model, the authors build pricing model of convertible bonds and obtain fitted value for them. Then the authors constructs simultaneous confidence band for the smooth function to identify mispricing and study the pricing efficiency and arbitrage opportunities of convertible bonds.
Findings
Result shows, convertible bonds’ prices largely depend on stock prices. Pricing efficiency does not improve during the past few years as there are quite a few trading opportunities. Arbitrage opportunities increase as the stock prices approach it maxima, and selling opportunities for convertible bonds surpass buying opportunities which indicates that investors use market neutral strategies to arbitrage. Pricing efficiencies varies a lot and it is affected by the features of the stocks and convertible bonds. Index stocks eligible for margin trading with high liquidity enjoy higher pricing efficiency.
Research limitations/implications
The study does not take into account trading cost and risk management measures.
Practical/implications
Arbitrage between the underlying and the convertible bonds is profitable and contributes to pricing efficiency therefore should be encouraged. The regulator should pay attention to the extreme mispricing of the underlying and convertible bonds which cannot be corrected by the market as there might be manipulation.
Originality/value
Since traditional pricing methods are based on the framework of non-arbitrage equilibrium with the assumption of balanced and perfect market, there are many restrictions in the pricing process and the practical utility is somewhat limited, and the impractical assumptions lead to model risk. This study uses nonparametric regression to study the pricing of convertible bonds thus circumvents the problem of model risk. Simultaneous confidence band for smooth function identifies mispricing and explicitly reflects the variation of pricing efficiency as well as signalizes trading opportunities. Application of nonparametric regression and simultaneous confidence band in derivative pricing is advantageous in accuracy and simplicity.
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Vanita Tripathi and Aakanksha Sethi
The purpose of this study is to ascertain how foreign and domestic Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) investing in Indian equities affect their return volatility and pricing efficiency…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to ascertain how foreign and domestic Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) investing in Indian equities affect their return volatility and pricing efficiency. Further, we investigate how the difference in market timings affect the impact of ETFs on their constituents. Lastly, we examine how these effects vary during tranquil and turmoil periods in the ETF markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The study is based on quarterly data for stocks comprising the CNX Nifty 50 Index from 2009Q1 to 2019Q3. The data on holdings of 45 domestic and 196 foreign ETFs in the sample stocks were obtained from Thomson Reuters' Eikon. The paper employs a panel-regression methodology with stock and time fixed effects and robust standard errors.
Findings
Foreign ETFs from North America and the Asia Pacific largely have an adverse impact on stocks' return volatility. In times of turmoil, stocks with higher coverage of European, North American and Domestic funds are susceptible to volatility shocks emanating from these regions. European and Asia Pacific ETFs are associated with improved price discovery while North American funds impound a mean-reverting component in stock prices. However, in turbulent markets, both positive and negative impacts of ETFs on pricing efficiency coexist.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that examines the impact of domestic as well as foreign ETFs on the equities of an emerging market. Furthermore, the study is unique as we investigate how the effects of ETFs vary in turbulent and tranquil markets. Moreover, the paper examines the role of asynchronous market timings in determining the ETF impact. The paper adds to the growing literature on the unintended consequences of index-linked products.
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Jianhua Ye and WenFang Li
This paper makes attempt to test the firm‐level long‐term asset growth (LAG) effects in returns by examining the cross‐sectional relation between firm‐level LAG and subsequent…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper makes attempt to test the firm‐level long‐term asset growth (LAG) effects in returns by examining the cross‐sectional relation between firm‐level LAG and subsequent abnormal stock returns. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether limits‐to‐arbitrage can explain this asset growth anomaly in Chinese stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
Empirical research was carried out.
Findings
The empirical results show that asset growth anomaly in A‐share stock market is significant and robust. The conclusion provides more evidence for the existence of asset growth anomaly. Additionally, arbitrage risk indicated by idiosyncratic risk cannot explain the anomaly, arbitrage risk indicated by accounting information transparency can partly explain the anomaly, and arbitrage cost proxied by Amihud's measure of illiquidity indicator can completely explain the asset growth anomaly in A‐share stock market.
Research limitations/implications
The results of this paper imply that strengthening the disclosure of firm information and improving the liquidity of the market are important to improve the efficiency of the A‐share stock market.
Originality/value
The paper selects the sample of non‐financial listed companies in A‐share stock market to research the asset growth anomaly and investigates whether limits‐to‐arbitrage can explain this anomaly. This paper proves the existence of asset growth anomaly in A‐share stock market and is a good reference for further researches.
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