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Article
Publication date: 15 May 2017

Hong Yu Xin Pan and Jun Song

Using volatility cones as the estimate of actual volatility instead of GARCH models, the purpose of this paper is to explore whether volatility arbitrage strategy can…

Abstract

Purpose

Using volatility cones as the estimate of actual volatility instead of GARCH models, the purpose of this paper is to explore whether volatility arbitrage strategy can provide positive profits and how the transaction costs existed in the real market affect the effectiveness of volatility arbitrage strategy.

Design/methodology/approach

A number of hedging approaches proposed to improve the hedging results and final returns of Black-Scholes model are analyzed and compared.

Findings

The general finding is that volatility arbitrage strategy can provide satisfactory returns based on the samples in Chinese market. Regarding transaction costs, the variable bandwidth delta and delta tolerance approach showed better results. Besides, choosing futures together with ETFs as hedging underlying can increase the VaR for better risk management.

Practical implications

This paper offers a new method for volatility arbitrage in Chinese financial market.

Originality/value

This paper researches the profitability of the volatility arbitrage strategy on ETF 50 options using volatility cones method for the first time. This method has advantage over the point-wise estimation such as GARCH model and stochastic volatility model.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

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Content available
Article
Publication date: 31 May 2007

Sang Buhm Hahn and Seung Hyun Oh

This study investigates the impact of program trading on the market volatility by separating the volatility into long-run and short-run components using VA-CEGARCH model…

Open Access

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of program trading on the market volatility by separating the volatility into long-run and short-run components using VA-CEGARCH model. This approach allows us to observe the two channels through which the program trading affects the market volatility. We have following results. Program trading and non-program trading both have no impact on the long-run component but do increase short-run component. In case of short-run component‘ program trading has a larger impact compared to non-program trading. Secondly, in both daily and intra-day analysis, arbitrage program trading is found to have a larger impact on short-run components than non-arbitrage program trading.

Thirdly, ARCH effects are found in short-run components of daily analysis and long-run components of intra-day analysis. And the volatility’s asymmetric responses to good or bad news are introduced through long-run components. What is noteworthy is the fact that non-arbitrage program trading is actually found to reduce short-run volatility in the intra-day analysis.

Which means that non-arbitrage program trading, such as hedging transactions, helps promote intra-day market stability. Our findings mean that the short-run component is the main channel by which program trading produce unnecessary market volatility.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2713-6647

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Article
Publication date: 9 May 2016

Ioannis Papantonis

The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to equity trading that is based on cointegration. If there are long-run equilibria among financial assets…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to equity trading that is based on cointegration. If there are long-run equilibria among financial assets, a cointegration-based trading strategy can exploit profitable opportunities by capturing mean-reverting short-run deviations.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the author introduces an equity indexing technique to form cointegration tracking portfolios that are able to replicate an index effectively. The author later enhances this tracking methodology in order to construct more complex portfolio-trading strategies that can be approximately market neutral. The author monitors the performance of a wide range of trading strategies under different specifications, and conducts an in-depth sensitivity analysis of the factors that affect the optimal portfolio construction. Several statistical-arbitrage tests are also carried out in order to examine whether the profitability of the cointegration-based trading strategies could indicate a market inefficiency.

Findings

The author shows that under certain parameter specifications, an efficient tracking portfolio is able to produce similar patterns in terms of returns and volatility with the market. The author also finds that a successful long-short strategy of two cointegration portfolios can yield an annualized return of more than 8 percent, outperforming the benchmark and also demonstrating insignificant correlation with the market. Even though some cointegration-based pairs-trading strategies can consistently generate significant cumulative profits, yet they do not seem to converge to risk-less arbitrages, and thus the hypothesis of market efficiency cannot be rejected.

Originality/value

The primary contribution of the research lies within the detailed analysis of the factors that affect the tracking-portfolio performance, thus revealing the optimal conditions that can lead to enhanced returns. Results indicate that cointegration can provide the means to successfully reproducing the risk-return profile of a benchmark and to implementing market-neutral strategies with consistent profitability. By testing for statistical arbitrage, the author also provides new evidence regarding the connection between the profit accumulation of cointegration-based pairs-trading strategies and market efficiency.

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Book part
Publication date: 25 March 2010

Eric C. Lin

When a stock is added into the S&P 500 Index, it in effect becomes cross-listed in the Index derivative markets. When index-based trading strategies such as index arbitrage

Abstract

When a stock is added into the S&P 500 Index, it in effect becomes cross-listed in the Index derivative markets. When index-based trading strategies such as index arbitrage are executed, the component stocks are directly affected by such trading. We find increased volatility of daily returns, plus increased trading volume for the underlying stocks. Utilizing a list of S&P 500 Index composition changes over the period September 1976 to December 2005, we study the market-adjusted volume turnover and return variance of the stocks added to and deleted from the Index. The results indicate that after the introduction of the S&P 500 Index futures and options contracts, stocks added to the S&P 500 experience statistically significant increase in both trading volume and return volatility. Both daily and monthly return variances increase following index inclusion. When stocks are removed from the index, though, neither volatility of returns nor trading volume experiences any significant change. So, we have new evidence showing that Index inclusion changes a firm's return volatility, and supporting the destabilization hypothesis.

Details

Research in Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-726-4

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Article
Publication date: 2 March 2015

Yang Hou and Steven Li

– This paper aims to investigate the volatility transmission and dynamics in China Securities Index (CSI) 300 index futures market.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the volatility transmission and dynamics in China Securities Index (CSI) 300 index futures market.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper applies the bivariate Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models using high frequency data. Estimates for the bivariate GARCH models are obtained by maximising the log-likelihood of the probability density function of a conditional Student’s t distribution.

Findings

This empirical analysis yields a few interesting results: there is a one-way feedback of volatility transmission from the CSI 300 index futures to spot returns, suggesting index futures market leads the spot market; volatility response to past bad news is asymmetric for both markets; volatility can be intensified by the disequilibrium between spot and futures prices; and trading volume has significant impact on volatility for both markets. These results reveal new evidence on the informational efficiency of the CSI 300 index futures market compared to earlier studies.

Originality/value

This paper shows that the CSI 300 index futures market has improved in terms of price discovery one year after its existence compared to its early days. This is an important finding for market participants and regulators. Further, this study considers the volatility response to news, market disequilibrium and trading volume. The findings are thus useful for financial risk management.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 32 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

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Book part
Publication date: 30 November 2011

Massimo Guidolin

I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models…

Abstract

I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to fit financial time series and at the same time provide powerful tools to test hypotheses formulated in the light of financial theories, and to generate positive economic value, as measured by risk-adjusted performances, in dynamic asset allocation applications. The chapter also reviews the role of Markov switching dynamics in modern asset pricing models in which the no-arbitrage principle is used to characterize the properties of the fundamental pricing measure in the presence of regimes.

Details

Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78052-526-6

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Article
Publication date: 15 February 2016

Honglei Yan, Suigen Yang and shengmin zhao

The purpose of this paper is to study the pricing efficiency of convertible bonds and arbitrage opportunities between the convertible bonds and the underlying stocks thus…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the pricing efficiency of convertible bonds and arbitrage opportunities between the convertible bonds and the underlying stocks thus improve market efficiency.

Design/methodology/approach

Using nonparametric fixed effect panel data model, the authors build pricing model of convertible bonds and obtain fitted value for them. Then the authors constructs simultaneous confidence band for the smooth function to identify mispricing and study the pricing efficiency and arbitrage opportunities of convertible bonds.

Findings

Result shows, convertible bonds’ prices largely depend on stock prices. Pricing efficiency does not improve during the past few years as there are quite a few trading opportunities. Arbitrage opportunities increase as the stock prices approach it maxima, and selling opportunities for convertible bonds surpass buying opportunities which indicates that investors use market neutral strategies to arbitrage. Pricing efficiencies varies a lot and it is affected by the features of the stocks and convertible bonds. Index stocks eligible for margin trading with high liquidity enjoy higher pricing efficiency.

Research limitations/implications

The study does not take into account trading cost and risk management measures.

Practical/implications

Arbitrage between the underlying and the convertible bonds is profitable and contributes to pricing efficiency therefore should be encouraged. The regulator should pay attention to the extreme mispricing of the underlying and convertible bonds which cannot be corrected by the market as there might be manipulation.

Originality/value

Since traditional pricing methods are based on the framework of non-arbitrage equilibrium with the assumption of balanced and perfect market, there are many restrictions in the pricing process and the practical utility is somewhat limited, and the impractical assumptions lead to model risk. This study uses nonparametric regression to study the pricing of convertible bonds thus circumvents the problem of model risk. Simultaneous confidence band for smooth function identifies mispricing and explicitly reflects the variation of pricing efficiency as well as signalizes trading opportunities. Application of nonparametric regression and simultaneous confidence band in derivative pricing is advantageous in accuracy and simplicity.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

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Article
Publication date: 16 August 2013

Jianhua Ye and WenFang Li

This paper makes attempt to test the firm‐level long‐term asset growth (LAG) effects in returns by examining the cross‐sectional relation between firm‐level LAG and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper makes attempt to test the firm‐level long‐term asset growth (LAG) effects in returns by examining the cross‐sectional relation between firm‐level LAG and subsequent abnormal stock returns. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether limits‐to‐arbitrage can explain this asset growth anomaly in Chinese stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

Empirical research was carried out.

Findings

The empirical results show that asset growth anomaly in A‐share stock market is significant and robust. The conclusion provides more evidence for the existence of asset growth anomaly. Additionally, arbitrage risk indicated by idiosyncratic risk cannot explain the anomaly, arbitrage risk indicated by accounting information transparency can partly explain the anomaly, and arbitrage cost proxied by Amihud's measure of illiquidity indicator can completely explain the asset growth anomaly in A‐share stock market.

Research limitations/implications

The results of this paper imply that strengthening the disclosure of firm information and improving the liquidity of the market are important to improve the efficiency of the A‐share stock market.

Originality/value

The paper selects the sample of non‐financial listed companies in A‐share stock market to research the asset growth anomaly and investigates whether limits‐to‐arbitrage can explain this anomaly. This paper proves the existence of asset growth anomaly in A‐share stock market and is a good reference for further researches.

Details

Nankai Business Review International, vol. 4 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-8749

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Book part
Publication date: 5 July 2012

Lixin Wu

In this chapter, we define the “inflation forward rates” based on arbitrage arguments and develop a dynamic model for the term structure of inflation forward rates. This…

Abstract

In this chapter, we define the “inflation forward rates” based on arbitrage arguments and develop a dynamic model for the term structure of inflation forward rates. This new model can serve as a framework for specific no-arbitrage models, including the popular practitioners’ market model and all models based on “foreign currency analogy.” With our rebuilt market model, we can price inflation caplets, floorlets, and swaptions with the Black formula for displaced-diffusion processes, and thus can quote these derivatives using “implied Black's volatilities.” The rebuilt market model also serves as a proper platform for developing models to manage volatility smile risks.

Through this chapter, we hope to correct two major flaws in existing models or with the current practices. First, a consumer price index has no volatility, so models based on the diffusion of the index are essentially wrong. Second, the differentiation of models based on zero-coupon inflation-indexed swaps and models based on year-on-year inflation-indexed swaps is unnecessary, and the use of “convexity adjustment,” a common practice to bridge models that are based on the two kinds of swaps, is redundant.

Details

Derivative Securities Pricing and Modelling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78052-616-4

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Article
Publication date: 5 April 2011

Niclas Andrén and Lars Oxelheim

The financial crisis starting in 2008 made many European countries opt for a change of exchange rate regime. The choice of price measure as an entry requirement to the…

Abstract

Purpose

The financial crisis starting in 2008 made many European countries opt for a change of exchange rate regime. The choice of price measure as an entry requirement to the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and as input in the monetary policy decision process re‐appeared as an important political and research issue. This paper aims to argue that, considering the importance of producer prices in international competition, their role is underplayed by policy makers and researchers.

Design/methodology/approach

Producer prices are analyzed in the transition from national exchange‐rate regimes to the EMU for 13 two‐digit manufacturing sectors in the first 11 countries to adopt the Euro.

Findings

It was found that significant price convergence before 1993‐1998, but no or modest evidence of convergence after 1998‐2005 when the Euro was introduced. This pattern is partly different from what prior studies have found for consumer prices, and is consistent with the change of exchange rate regime to a monetary union anchoring inflation rates. A conditional β‐convergence analysis reveals effective exchange‐rate changes and differences in cyclicality as important determinants of price convergence, suggesting that import of inflation is an important determinant of price developments in the EMU.

Research limitations/implications

The paper concludes that considering the role of producer prices and their deviating pattern from consumer prices, producer prices are underplayed in the research and deserve more attention. It is argued that increased attention to producer prices is warranted.

Practical implications

Focusing monetary policymaking on consumer prices alone appears inefficient. Rather, then, support for the trade‐off approach in monetary policy‐making is supported.

Social implications

In considering different solutions to the financial crisis, increasing attention should be paid to the development of producer prices.

Originality/value

This is the first study to focus on producer prices in the research on the transition from a national exchange rate regime to a membership of a monetary union.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

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