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This paper presents the results of a study comparing the ability of neural network models and multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) models to predict bond rating changes…
This paper presents the results of a study comparing the ability of neural network models and multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) models to predict bond rating changes and to exam if segmentation by investment grade improves classification. Data was collected on more than 900 bonds that had their Standard and Poor's Corporation rating changed during the period 1997 to 2002. This was matched this dataset with corresponding firms which had the same initial bond rating but which did not change. The correspondence was based on the firms being in the same industry, having the same rating at the time of the change (the time frame was one month) and the same approximate asset size (within 20%). This relatively stringent set of criteria reduced the data set to 282 pairs of companies. A neural network model and a multiple discriminant analysis were used to predict both a bond change and the general direction of a movement from a particular bond rating to another bond rating. The predictive variables were financial ratios and rates of change for these ratios. In almost all cases, particularly for the larger sample studies, the neural network models were better predictors than the multiple discriminant models. The paper reviews, in detail, performance of the respective models, strengths and limitations of the models – particularly with respect to underlying assumptions- and future research directions.
High or low quality is as much a result of how care systems are organised as it is a result of individual clinicians’ performance. Failure to introduce new care…
High or low quality is as much a result of how care systems are organised as it is a result of individual clinicians’ performance. Failure to introduce new care organisation or quality methods which research shows to be effective is as serious an omission as failing to act on poor clinical performance. Managers make many decisions about policies and organisation which affect the quality of care, but they rarely use evaluation research in making these decisions. Such research is difficult to find, produced using many different types of methods which are difficult for non‐experts to assess, often of poor quality, and difficult to translate to the local setting. However, managers can develop an evaluation informed practice, and make greater use of evaluation research in decisions with high cost or risk implications. The paper explains why the model of evidence‐based medicine is not appropriate, proposes instead a practical four‐step approach, and shows how managers can use evaluation in everyday practice.
‘WORK STUDY specialists of Europe—from both the Six and the Seven— are getting together in London this year regardless of what happens to other meetings,’ said Mr. R. M. Currie, C.B.E., President of the European Work Study Federation, in a statement on the forthcoming Congress of the Federation which is to take place at Church House, Westminster, from May 20 to 23.
Accident and Emergency (A&E) departments are increasingly popular venues for primary care, causing a serious threat to healthcare quality. This paper reports the…
Accident and Emergency (A&E) departments are increasingly popular venues for primary care, causing a serious threat to healthcare quality. This paper reports the development of a comprehensive research method for identifying primary care patients attending A&E. Patients were randomly selected from the four A&E departments across different time periods and different regions in Hong Kong. The definition of GP cases was based on a retrospective record review conducted by a panel of emergency physicians using the standard laid down by the Hong Kong College of Family Physicians. The patients sampled were similar in sex and age distribution to A&E attendees for the whole territory. The level of GP cases was found to be 57 per cent, with a significantly higher proportion of patients in the younger age group. The high level of use reflects the lack of a well co‐ordinated development of primary care services and interfacing with secondary care.
Describes the objectives herein as examining auditors’ ethical sensitivity to assess risk of fraud in financial reporting. Gives background literature as the opening…
Describes the objectives herein as examining auditors’ ethical sensitivity to assess risk of fraud in financial reporting. Gives background literature as the opening section, and this is followed by a section in which the investigation method is described, study results are then discussed, followed by a summary and conclusions. Looks at case studies of bribery scandals, etc. and discusses ethics and auditing. Sums up that ethical scenarios examined herein, perhaps, contain external economies ‐ but not external diseconomies.
This paper aims to conceptualize perceived management consulting success, derive relevant success factors based on principal-agent theory and the resource-based view as…
This paper aims to conceptualize perceived management consulting success, derive relevant success factors based on principal-agent theory and the resource-based view as well as investigate the particular factors’ influence. Management consulting has become important for improving the competitiveness of a variety of firms. Surprisingly, there is little empirical evidence clarifying what constitutes a successful management consulting project.
The authors conduct a survey to empirically investigate the hypotheses. They develop the survey instrument through a literature review, expert interviews, a pre-test and an item-sorting test. To analyze the data from 348 management consultants, the authors apply structural equation modeling. Additionally, they choose a triangulation approach by asking secondary informants about the originally surveyed consultants’ responses.
Initially, the authors develop the second-order construct perceived management consulting success, consisting of the factors compliance with budget and schedule, degree of target achievement, profitability as well as expansion and extension. Additionally, they develop an understanding of management consulting’s success factors. In this regard, five of six factors show a significant impact on perceived management consulting success.
According to the results, the factor intensity of collaboration is of highest importance for perceived management consulting success. Further, the factors common vision, consultant expertise and top management support show comparably strong significant influences. Yet, the authors have to reject the hypothesis about trust. This result conveys the complicacy of the consultant–client relationship and shows that building a trustful relationship between both parties is hard to accomplish.
Reviews the literature on consumer‐perceived risk over the past 30 years. The review begins by establishing perceived risk’s relationship with related marketing constructs…
Reviews the literature on consumer‐perceived risk over the past 30 years. The review begins by establishing perceived risk’s relationship with related marketing constructs such as involvement and trust. It then tackles some debates within the literature, concerning subjective and objective risk and differences between the concepts of risk and uncertainty. It describes how different models have been devised and operationalised to measure risk and how these have developed over the years. Aims to identify and report the theoretical and model developments over the past 30 years and to propose criteria which researchers can use in deciding the most useful model for their own research. The criteria are: understanding, prediction, suitability for reliability and validity assessment, practicality and usability. It is suggested that the basic two‐component model is still the most generally useful for researchers and practitioners alike.