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Article
Publication date: 17 May 2013

Empirical heuristics for improving intermittent demand forecasting

Fotios Petropoulos, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Georgios P. Spithourakis and Vassilios Assimakopoulos

Intermittent demand appears sporadically, with some time periods not even displaying any demand at all. Even so, such patterns constitute considerable proportions of the…

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Abstract

Purpose

Intermittent demand appears sporadically, with some time periods not even displaying any demand at all. Even so, such patterns constitute considerable proportions of the total stock in many industrial settings. Forecasting intermittent demand is a rather difficult task but of critical importance for corresponding cost savings. The current study aims to examine the empirical outcomes of three heuristics towards the modification of established intermittent demand forecasting approaches.

Design/methodology/approach

First, optimization of the smoothing parameter used in Croston's approach is empirically explored, in contrast to the use of an a priori fixed value as in earlier studies. Furthermore, the effect of integer rounding of the resulting forecasts is considered. Lastly, the authors evaluate the performance of Theta model as an alternative of SES estimator for extrapolating demand sizes and/or intervals. The proposed heuristics are implemented into the forecasting support system.

Findings

The experiment is performed on 3,000 real intermittent demand series from the automotive industry, while evaluation is made both in terms of bias and accuracy. Results indicate increased forecasting performance.

Originality/value

The current research explores some very simple heuristics which have a positive impact on the accuracy of intermittent demand forecasting approaches. While some of these issues have been partially explored in the past, the current research focuses on a complete in‐depth analysis of easy‐to‐employ modifications to well‐established intermittent demand approaches. By this, the authors enable the application of such heuristics in an industrial environment, which may lead to significant inventory and production cost reductions and other benefits.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 113 no. 5
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/02635571311324142
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

  • Intermittent demand
  • Smoothing parameters
  • Rounding
  • Theta method
  • Empirical investigation
  • Demand
  • Demand forecasting

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Article
Publication date: 1 January 2006

Architecture for a real estate analysis information system using GIS techniques integrated with fuzzy theory

Elli Pagourtzi, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos and Vassilios Assimakopoulos

Proposes a new real estate valuation methodology and presents the architecture for a decision support system for real estate analysis based on Geographic Information…

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Abstract

Purpose

Proposes a new real estate valuation methodology and presents the architecture for a decision support system for real estate analysis based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques integrated with fuzzy theory and spatial analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed information system architecture/problem‐solving methodology uses GIS technology integrated with two approaches: fuzzy logic and spatial analysis. The steps required in the proposed methodology are: database design and implementation; criteria and rules; system design; and implementation. The components/modules included in the proposed methodology are: requirement and definition analysis; data production; topology; integrated database; visualization; variables; quantification; valuation; and implementation.

Findings

The applicability of the system is evaluated via a case study in estimation of house sale prices. The proposed system/methodology was used in order to valuate property values in one municipality of Attica in Greece. The estimation, market analysis, forecasting and management of property values are of great importance and a prerequisite for real estate development.

Originality/value

The proposed methodology is innovative, easy to implement and has a vast theoretical background. Following the methodology/architecture, a prototype information system is presented in order to move from theory to practice. The value of the paper is the combination of new technology assessments and GIS tools, integrated with fuzzy theory and spatial analysis.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 24 no. 1
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/14635780610642971
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

  • Real estate
  • Urban areas
  • Assets valuation
  • Geographic information systems
  • Fuzzy logic

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Article
Publication date: 1 January 2006

The European Real Estate Society

Éamonn D’Arcy

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Abstract

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 24 no. 1
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/jpif.2006.11224aaa.001
ISSN: 1463-578X

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