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Analyses the effect of valuation error on the implied precision of investment performance measurement of property assets. A prerequisite for measuring the absolute or relative performance of commercial property investments is that valuations provide a reliable proxy for prices. However, there are conceptual and empirical grounds to suggest that uncertainty is inherent in the valuation process. This is primarily due to the structure of the commercial property market and the techniques and guidelines of the property valuation process. Sampling theory is used to measure portfolio valuation error confidence bands for hypothetical property investment portfolios based on different assumptions concerning assumed levels of valuation error, size of portfolio and number of measurement time periods. It is concluded that, for the majority of investment portfolios, property investment performance measures will include some uncertainty and thus the property fund manager should be sceptical of the implied precision in reported measures of return.

This paper aims to examine the valuation precision of composite models in each of six key industries in South Africa. The objective is to ascertain whether equity-based composite multiples models produce more accurate equity valuations than optimal equity-based, single-factor multiples models.

This study applied principal component regression and various mathematical optimisation methods to test the valuation precision of equity-based composite multiples models vis-à-vis equity-based, single-factor multiples models.

The findings confirmed that equity-based composite multiples models consistently produced valuations that were substantially more accurate than those of single-factor multiples models for the period between 2001 and 2010. The research results indicated that composite models produced up to 67 per cent more accurate valuations than single-factor multiples models for the period between 2001 and 2010, which represents a substantial gain in valuation precision.

The evidence, therefore, suggests that equity-based composite modelling may offer substantial gains in valuation precision over single-factor multiples modelling.

In light of the fact that analysts’ reports typically contain various different multiples, it seems prudent to consider the inclusion of composite models as a more accurate alternative.

This study adds to the existing body of knowledge on the multiples-based approach to equity valuations by presenting composite modelling as a more accurate alternative to the conventional single-factor, multiples-based modelling approach.

This paper posits that the precision of accounting estimates should be an increasing function of experience due to learning effects. Using a sample of 747 observations for 305 firms for the period 1993–96 with complete data available on the COMPUSTAT, CRSP, and COMPACT DISCLOSURE databases, the paper conducts regression analyses to examine the precision of two estimates (discount rates and health care cost inflation rates) required under SFAS 106. Tests show that the estimation errors for the health care cost inflation estimates decrease with experience, but those for discounts rates do not. The results persist after controlling for the profile of participants of the health care plan, predisclosure uncertainty, and propensity to manipulate by managers. The results are consistent with “learning effect” for health care cost inflation rates that were being estimated for the first time, while no such effect is visible for discount rates that had been estimated in the past for pension plans. The paper also hypothesizes that the market rewards perceived precision of accounting estimates attributable to learning effect. Cross‐sectional tests confirm that the valuation coefficient of postretirement benefit obligations increases in absolute value as the estimation errors decline, suggesting that the market relies more on reported accounting estimates as their perceived precision improves. Thus, the extant research findings of weak or non‐existent value relevance of SEAS 106 liabilities may have been confined to the initial period after the adoption of SEAS 106 when the measurement errors were high. The documented evidence of improvement in precision provides support for FASB's claim that the reliability of accounting estimates, especially those required by complex standards such as SEAS 106, should improve with experience. The evidence of improvement in value‐relevance should also be reassuring for FASB, since one of the intended benefits of SEAS 106 was to provide value relevant information to the investors.

This study aims to investigate the valuation accuracy of Malaysian initial public offerings (IPOs) by using price-multiple methods.

Cross-sectional data including 467 IPOs listed on the Malaysian stock exchange were used for the period of 2000–2017. This study used univariate ordinary least square (OLS) regression to analyse the relationship between IPOs’ price-multiples and comparable firms’ price-multiples. The test of valuation accuracy was conducted via computing valuation errors by segregating the sample into two groups: fixed-price IPOs and book-built IPOs. Furthermore, multiple OLS regression was used to examine the influence of IPO valuation on underpricing.

The findings of the results suggested that IPOs price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-sales (P/S) multiples were positively related to the median P/E, P/B and P/S multiples of five comparable firms matched by industry and revenues. The P/S multiple was shown to be the most significant valuation method, specifically in book-built IPOs. The findings indicated that those firms that had a lower valuation in comparison to the comparable firms were inclined to underprice their IPOs to allure investors to subscribe IPOs. In addition, book-built IPOs that had fair valuations were inclined to generate higher initial returns for investors.

The findings of this study observed implications for underwriters in avoiding the mis-valuation issue by considering the book-building mechanism.

This study attempted to explore the suitability of the valuation method to value IPOs in Malaysia.

The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of underwriter reputation on the valuation of Malaysian initial public offerings (IPOs).

This study employed cross-sectional multiple regression models to analyse the relationship between underwriter reputation and IPO valuation that included 466 IPOs listed on Bursa Malaysia from 2000 to 2017.

The results revealed that underwriter reputation had a significant negative association with IPO valuation. Firms that engaged the services of reputable underwriters had their IPO offer prices set lower than the intrinsic values during the listing. After incorporating firms' size, this study found a positive relationship between underwriter reputation and IPO valuation. Big firms (high quality) hired reputable underwriters for certification purposes as issuers were aware that the cost of hiring a reputable underwriter would be justified by increased transparency after listing. Therefore, firms that engaged reputable underwriters had approximately fair values since issuers assumed that the price would be close to the intrinsic value following enhanced transparency post-listing.

Future studies should focus on other non-financial factors, such as auditor reputation.

The present study provides new insights into the certification role of underwriters in valuing IPOs in the Malaysian market.

Based on Hartman's value theory (axiology), the article outlines and tests a forced rank order method to measure the company value pattern perceived by its employees. Pattern characteristics of the ranking orders include: presented mean as a measure of over‐ or under‐valuation; precision as an estimation of agreement on position; and consistency as the degree of reliability in valuing. Using two separate 18‐item scales, one for the “present” and one for the “desired” state of the company, respondents were asked to rank order according to their “ideal” company. Results showed a very good resemblance to the reference order used and only a few items were subject to modification.

The purpose of the article is to discuss how the demand for disclosure regarding property valuation in financial reports can be fulfilled.

The starting point is the generally established methods for property valuation and the different types of data that they need. From this it is deduced what kind of information that it is necessary to supply.

An important conclusion from the research reported in this paper is that disclosure regarding applied methods, significant assumptions in property valuations and statements about the connections between appraised values and market evidence needs refinement in financial reports, according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). As the uncertainty in property valuations cannot be removed, it has to be managed. Providing explicit disclosure about valuations is one important way to manage this issue by reducing the gap of information asymmetry between those who perform valuations and those who are users of financial statements.

Providing high quality disclosure on these issues would make analysis and the application of individual judgement by users of financial reports far easier. Findings reported in this paper imply that many companies have not so far found the right balance between cost and benefits regarding what amount of disclosure would be appropriate on this issue in financial reports.

The detailed discussion about what information that should be disclosed concerning property valuation is an original contribution of the paper.

The purpose of this paper is to propose and discuss practical approaches on how to address risk and uncertainty within valuation reports, particularly when there is only insufficient comparable transaction evidence available.

A four stage approach to property valuation is proposed that can be particularly useful if there is insufficient comparable transaction evidence available: Identifying, measuring and expressing risk by making use of property rating approaches. Transforming risk into risk premia for calculating the yield on a risk free basis by partially making use of models of risk and return usually applied in finance. Simulating risk premia (since there is great deal of uncertainty involved in determining these premia) by making use of a statistical method commonly referred to as Monte Carlo Simulation. Using the derived yield's probability distribution in combination with further probability distributions for other valuation input variables (e.g. market rent) to calculate a range of possible outcomes of Market Value as well as a number of statistical measures that can be indicative of the valuer's perceived uncertainty regarding the valuation assignment.

The empirical part shows that due to data limitations determining idiosyncratic risk premia for property assets is not yet possible. This significantly hampers the development of robust yield pricing models and reinforces the need to create databases including information on both individual property returns and associated building characteristics.

The paper postulates that there are few (if any) rational reasons for valuers not to use rating and simulation approaches as an indispensable element of the valuation process.

A valuation approach that allows simultaneously addressing risk and uncertainty as well as sustainability issues within commercial property valuation practice is proposed.

The purpose of this paper is to describe the property valuation methods that are applied in Poland. It shows that they base on international standards and are a reliable source of information for international investors and banks.

The valuation methods are described and critically assessed, potential problems are pointed out. The analysis of lending risk is analysed on data about non-performing loans (NPL).

Polish valuation methods are in line with international methods, but there are some risks, like small number of transactions, subjective behaviour of valuers. The low NPL ratios indicate that the valuation works correctly.

The Polish valuation methods are trustworthy, non-performing mortgage ratios are low, however, banks and investors should ask whether there is a local zoning plan. Moreover, they should look critically at the comparables that were used during the valuation process, if in their opinion the valuation is overly low or high.

This paper focusses on valuation from a financial stability perspective. It uses Polish literature and data on NPLs to give an insight on valuation of property and mortgage risk in Poland. Besides the review of the methods it points out the problems related to valuation uncertainty, such as the risk of subjective behaviour of valuers and the low number of transactions in some regions, which are used for valuations.

Finance, entrepreneurship, general management.

MBA/Postgraduate.

This case is about Precision Air Services, a small profitable airline in Tanzania, which is in the middle of a changing airline industry. In less than ten years, Mr Michael Ngaleku Shirima, the founder and then holding two-thirds of the shares together with an option to buy the remaining one-third, had seen the airline grow to a major player in the domestic market. His plans to expand to regional routes were still on the drawing board when he received a US$2 million cash offer from Kenya Airways, a much larger airline, for a 49 percent equity stake. At the same time, South African Airways – another heavyweight in the African airline industry, was in the process of acquiring a controlling stake in the state-owned Air Tanzania Corporation. To Mr Shirima, giving up a significant stake in an airline he created from scratch was a dilemma. But if that was to be, he was also interested to see that he is getting the right price for his efforts.

This case can be used to teach elements of merger and acquisition, business valuation, negotiation, strategy (corporate, international, growth), strategic scoping and planning.

Teaching notes.