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The purpose of this paper is to retrace the past development of the global tourism sector to identify past drivers of growth and try to understand which factors will shape the sector development in the long term. The paper also intends to initiate a discussion on critical areas the global sector needs to address if it wants to establish as a model for sustainable and inclusive growth.

This paper analyses the political, economic, socio-cultural and technological factors that influenced tourism growth.

The global tourism sector has experienced continuous expansion and diversification to become one of the largest and fastest-growing economic sectors in the world. With increased recognition of tourism contribution to economic growth and development, more opportunities will arise for tourism to take centre stage in the political and economic agendas worldwide. Such opportunities can be successfully realised only once the global tourism sector eventually engages to mitigate negative impacts.

The paper is based on an extensive review of published literature; hence, it reflects the view major organisations dealing with tourism have on the future development of this sector. The factors included in this analysis have been prioritised based on the sector knowledge of the authors and may not be reflect other viewpoints.

Tourism could establish itself as a model that puts aspects such as the conservation, preservation and protection of the cultural and natural heritage at the heart of economic development. For global tourism to become a driver of socio-economic change, stronger guidance is needed to set priorities that would lead the sector to mitigate its negative impacts. The paper critically discusses some of those aspects that could become policy priorities for the next decades.

The main value of this piece of research is the extended, cross-disciplinary literature of the factors that conducted to the rapid and healthy growth of the tourism sector worldwide.

The link between confidence and economic decisions has been widely covered in the economic literature, yet it is still an unexplored field in tourism. The purpose of this paper is to address this gap, and investigate benefits in forecast accuracy that can be achieved by combining the UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index (TCI) with statistical forecasts.

Research is conducted in a real-life setting, using UNWTO unique data sets of tourism indicators. UNWTO TCI is pooled with statistical forecasts using three distinct approaches. Forecasts efficiency is assessed in terms of accuracy gains and capability to predict turning points in alternative scenarios, including one of the hardest crises the tourism sector ever experienced.

Results suggest that the TCI provides meaningful indications about the sign of future growth in international tourist arrivals, and point to an improvement of forecast accuracy, when the index is used in combination with statistical forecasts. Still, accuracy gains vary greatly across regions and can hardly be generalised. Findings provide meaningful directions to tourism practitioners on the use opportunity cost to produce short-term forecasts using both approaches.

Empirical evidence suggests that a confidence index should not be collected as input to improve their forecasts. It remains a valuable instrument to supplement official statistics, over which it has the advantage of being more frequently compiled and more rapidly accessible. It is also of particular importance to predict changes in the business climate and capture turning points in a timely fashion, which makes it an extremely valuable input for operational and strategic decisions.

The use of sentiment indexes as input to forecasting is an unexplored field in the tourism literature.