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1 – 10 of over 1000Ali Raza, Laiba Asif, Turgut Türsoy, Mehdi Seraj and Gül Erkol Bayram
This study aims to determine how changes in macroeconomic indicators and the housing prices index (HPI) are related. These factors can cause short-term and long-term changes in…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to determine how changes in macroeconomic indicators and the housing prices index (HPI) are related. These factors can cause short-term and long-term changes in the housing market in Spain.
Design/methodology/approach
The study used cointegrating regression, fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares methodologies. The models are trained using quarterly time series data for these parameters from 2010 to 2022. A comprehensive examination is conducted to explore the relationship between macroeconomic issues and fluctuations in the HPI.
Findings
The results indicate statistically significant short-run effects (p < 0.05) of economic growth, inflation, Spanish stock indices, foreign trade and the interest rate on HPI. The inflation variables, Spain’s stock indices, interest rate and monetary rate, have statistically significant long-run effects (p < 0.05) on HPI. The exchange rate, unemployment and money supply have no substantial impact on HPI in Spain.
Originality/value
The study’s findings significantly contribute to increased information concerning the level of investing activity in the Spanish housing sector. After conducting an in-depth study of both the long-run and short-run connections with HPI, the study proved to be highly effective in formulating appropriate policies.
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Sami Ur Rahman, Faisal Faisal, Fariha Sami and Friedrich Schneider
The shadow economy (SE) has been a serious issue with varied dimensions in all countries that significantly affect economic growth. Therefore, all countries have made an effort to…
Abstract
Purpose
The shadow economy (SE) has been a serious issue with varied dimensions in all countries that significantly affect economic growth. Therefore, all countries have made an effort to tackle the SE by pursuing several measures. This study aims to investigate the impact of financial markets (stock and bond) in reducing the SE while considering the role of country risk (political, economic and financial) in N-11 countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employed first-generation methodological techniques, including a unit root test to identify stationarity in the series, a panel cointegration test and panel autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) to estimate long-run and short-run relationships. Finally, the Granger causality is applied to determine the direction of the causal relationship.
Findings
The study explored that country risk factors are crucial in reducing the size of the SE. Moreover, the significant moderating role of country risk factors in the financial market development and SE nexus suggests that by controlling the country's risk, financial market development can negatively affect the SE.
Research limitations/implications
Due to the availability of data, the study used data, ranging from 1995 to 2015, because the tax burden data is available from 1995 while the maximum data for the SE is available till 2015, using Medina and Schneider's (2019) data estimates for the SE.
Originality/value
The previous studies have focused explicitly on the role of financial institutions' development in the SE. To the best of the author's knowledge, no previous study is attempted to investigate the role of financial markets (bonds and stock) in the size of the SE. Furthermore, previous studies have ignored the important role of country risk factors in the size of the SE. This study investigates the impact of country risk on the SE and the moderating role of country risk in the development of financial markets and the SE nexus.
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Mario Gómez and Oluwasefunmi Eunice Irewole
Unemployment is one of the major challenges facing most countries, including Africa as a continent. Seeking how to reduce unemployment, debt, inflation and increase gross domestic…
Abstract
Purpose
Unemployment is one of the major challenges facing most countries, including Africa as a continent. Seeking how to reduce unemployment, debt, inflation and increase gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI) and gross capital formation in the continent has been an agenda of governments, policy makers and economists to. This study examines the relationship between economic growth, inflation, debt, FDI, gross capital formation, labor force, population and unemployment in Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
An updated panel dataset of 29 African countries was selected from different regions from 1991 to 2019. These countries were selected based on their unemployment, population growth and inflation rates. The Pesaran cross-sectional dependence and panel unit root test (the Dickey–Fuller cross-sectional supplemented and the Im-Pesaran-Shin cross-sectional) were applied. Further, the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model (Bounds test) and pooled mean group (PMG) estimator were utilized in this work.
Findings
This shows that economic growth, debt, labor force and population have a positive relationship with unemployment in the long run. Therefore, an increase in these variables generates an increase in the selected African countries' unemployment growth. In contrast, inflation, FDI and gross capital formation have a negative relationship with unemployment in the long run, which implies that an increase in these variables reduces unemployment in the selected African countries.
Research limitations/implications
This study has potential limitations because some data from the countries are not up to date and some years are missing from the data.
Practical implications
This study contributes to understanding unemployment and Okun's law in the African economy. This study shows that an increase in economic growth leads to a rise in unemployment, while an increase in inflation leads to a decrease in unemployment.
Originality/value
This paper provides an insight into the major factors that increase and reduces unemployment for government and policy marker to take the adequate measure.
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Everton Anger Cavalheiro, Kelmara Mendes Vieira and Pascal Silas Thue
This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the authors aim to gauge how extensively the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) can predict cryptocurrency return movements, exploring the intricate bond between investor emotions and market behavior.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used the Granger causality test to achieve research objectives. Going beyond conventional linear analysis, the authors applied Smooth Quantile Regression, scrutinizing weekly data from July 2022 to June 2023 for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The study focus was to determine if the FGI, an indicator of investor sentiment, predicts shifts in cryptocurrency returns.
Findings
The study findings underscore the profound psychological sway within cryptocurrency markets. The FGI notably predicts the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, underscoring the lasting connection between investor emotions and market behavior. An intriguing feedback loop between the FGI and cryptocurrency returns was identified, accentuating emotions' persistent role in shaping market dynamics. While associations between sentiment and returns were observed at specific lag periods, the nonlinear Granger causality test didn't statistically support nonlinear causality. This suggests linear interactions predominantly govern variable relationships. Cointegration tests highlighted a stable, enduring link between the returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum and the FGI over the long term.
Practical implications
Despite valuable insights, it's crucial to acknowledge our nonlinear analysis's sensitivity to methodological choices. Specifics of time series data and the chosen time frame may have influenced outcomes. Additionally, direct exploration of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors was absent, signaling opportunities for future research.
Originality/value
This study enriches theoretical understanding by illuminating causal dynamics between investor sentiment and cryptocurrency returns. Its significance lies in spotlighting the pivotal role of investor sentiment in shaping cryptocurrency market behavior. It emphasizes the importance of considering this factor when navigating investment decisions in a highly volatile, dynamic market environment.
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Shahida Suleman, Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker, Mohamed Ariff and Calvin W.H. Cheong
The purpose of this research is to systematically scrutinize the influence of macroeconomic determinants on trade openness, through the lens of various trade theories, with a…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this research is to systematically scrutinize the influence of macroeconomic determinants on trade openness, through the lens of various trade theories, with a particular focus on the economies of the GIPSI countries – Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy.
Design/methodology/approach
This study investigates the macroeconomic factors influencing trade openness in the GIPSI economies from 1995 to 2020. Methods include stepwise regression (SR) for model selection, Pedroni panel cointegration test and panel regression results. The analysis uses advanced panel regressions, including FMOLS, Panel OLS and FEM. The long-term dynamics were tested using Pedroni cointegration, while Granger causality testing was used to examine the causal direction between the trade openness ratio and trade determinant.
Findings
The results show both long-term and short-term relationships between trade openness and (1) foreign direct investment, (2) labor force participation rate, (3) trade reserves and (4) trade balance. The researchers also detected unidirectional and bidirectional causality relationships between trade openness and these four factors. The study also revealed that trade reserves (TR) emerge as the most influential determinant of trade openness, and per capita income does not exhibit economic significance concerning the trade openness of GIPSI economies.
Research limitations/implications
This research is conducted within the context of the GIPSI nations (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy). As such, the outcomes may not be universally applicable to other economic systems due to the distinct institutional settings and governance structures across different economic groups. Future investigations may explore the relationship between trade openness and its determinants by incorporating different variables.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study investigating the theory that suggested trade drivers drive the trade openness of GIPSI countries context. By focusing on GIPSI countries, the study offers a unique perspective on the dynamics of trade openness in economies that have experienced financial crises and stringent austerity measures.
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Josephine Ofosu-Mensah Ababio, Eric B. Yiadom, John K.M. Mawutor, Joseph K. Tuffour and Edward Attah‐Botchwey
This study aims to use 67 developing countries to examine the role of financial inclusion as an “empowering tool” for renewable energy uptake and to improve environmental…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to use 67 developing countries to examine the role of financial inclusion as an “empowering tool” for renewable energy uptake and to improve environmental sustainability in developing countries.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a battery of econometric models, including the generalized method of moment-panel vector autoregression (GMM-PVAR), impulse response function, Granger causality, fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares, the study proposed and tested three hypotheses.
Findings
The results from various estimations indicate that financial inclusion has a positive effect on renewable energy consumption and environmental sustainability improvement in developing countries. The findings suggest that financial inclusion can improve environmental sustainability by increasing access to financing to fund renewable energy projects, support sustainable businesses and promote sustainable practices.
Originality/value
This study suggests that policymakers prioritize financial inclusion to promote renewable energy consumption and environmental sustainability. Policies should enhance access to financial services, offer financial incentives and subsidies, provide affordable loans through microfinance institutions and fintech companies and promote sustainable businesses and green technologies.
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Robert Kurniawan, Novan Adi Adi Nugroho, Ahmad Fudholi, Agung Purwanto, Bagus Sumargo, Prana Ugiana Gio and Sri Kuswantono Wongsonadi
The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of the industrial sector, renewable energy consumption and nonrenewable energy consumption in Indonesia on the ecological…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of the industrial sector, renewable energy consumption and nonrenewable energy consumption in Indonesia on the ecological footprint from 1990 to 2020 in the short and long term.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses vector error correction model (VECM) analysis to examine the relationship in the short and long term. In addition, the impulse response function is used to enable future forecasts up to 2060 of the ecological footprint as a measure of environmental degradation caused by changes or shocks in industrial value-added, renewable energy consumption and nonrenewable energy consumption. Furthermore, forecast error decomposition of variance (FEVD) analysis is carried out to predict the percentage contribution of each variable’s variance to changes in a specific variable. Granger causality testing is used to enhance the analysis outcomes within the framework of VECM.
Findings
Using VECM analysis, the speed of adjustment for environmental damage is quite high in the short term, at 246%. This finding suggests that when there is a short-term imbalance in industrial value-added, renewable energy consumption and nonrenewable energy consumption, the ecological footprint experiences a very rapid adjustment, at 246%, to move towards long-term balance. Then, in the long term, the ecological footprint in Indonesia is most influenced by nonrenewable energy consumption. This is also confirmed by the Granger causality test and the results of FEVD, which show that the contribution of nonrenewable energy consumption will be 10.207% in 2060 and will be the main contributor to the ecological footprint in the coming years to achieve net-zero emissions in 2060. In the long run, renewable energy consumption has a negative effect on the ecological footprint, whereas industrial value-added and nonrenewable energy consumption have a positive effect.
Originality/value
For the first time, value added from the industrial sector is being used alongside renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption to measure Indonesia’s ecological footprint. The primary cause of Indonesia’s alarming environmental degradation is the industrial sector, which acts as the driving force behind this issue. Consequently, this contribution is expected to inform the policy implications required to achieve zero carbon emissions by 2060, aligned with the G20 countries’ Bali agreement of 2022.
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Afees Adebare Salisu, Aliyu Akorede Rufai and Modestus Chidi Nsonwu
This study aims to construct alternative models to establish the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability by estimating both the short- and long-run…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to construct alternative models to establish the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability by estimating both the short- and long-run relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability for 18 OECD countries from 1975Q1 to 2022Q4. After that, this study demonstrates how this nexus behaves during high and low inflation regimes and turbulent times.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the panel autoregressive distributed lag technique to examine the nexus between housing affordability to capture the distinct characteristics of the sample countries and estimate various short- and long-run dynamics in the relationship between housing affordability and exchange rate.
Findings
Exchange rate appreciation improves housing affordability in the short run, whereas this connection tends to dissipate in the long run. Moreover, inflation can worsen housing affordability during turbulent times, such as the global financial crisis, in both the short and long run. Ignoring these changes in the relationship between exchange rates and housing affordability during turbulent times can lead to incorrect conclusions.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the association between exchange rates and housing affordability by demonstrating how these variables behave in high and low inflation regimes and turbulent times.
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Shakeel Sajjad, Rubaiyat Ahsan Bhuiyan, Rocky J. Dwyer, Adnan Bashir and Changyong Zhang
This study aims to examine the relationship between financial development (FD), financial risk, green finance and innovation related to carbon emissions in the G7 economies.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the relationship between financial development (FD), financial risk, green finance and innovation related to carbon emissions in the G7 economies.
Design/methodology/approach
This quantitative study examines the roles that financial development [FD: Domestic credit to private sector by banks as percentage of gross domestic product (GDP)], economic growth (GDP: Constant US$ 2015), financial risk index (FRI), green finance (GFIN: Renewable energy public research development and demonstration (RD&D) budget as percentage of total RD&D budget), development of environment-related technologies (DERTI: percentage of all technologies) and human capital (HCI: index) have on the environmental quality of developed economies. Based on panel data, the study uses a novel approach method of moments quantile regression as a main method to tackle the issue of cross-sectional dependency, slope heterogeneity and nonnormality of the data.
Findings
The study confirms that increasing economic development increases emissions and negatively impacts the environment. However, efficient resource allocation, improved financial systems, and green innovation are likely to contribute to emission mitigation and the overall development of a sustainable viable economy. Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of risk management in financial systems for future emissions prevention.
Practical implications
The study uses a reliable estimation procedure, which extends the discussion on climate policy from a COP-27 perspective and offers practical implications for policymakers in developing more effective emission mitigation strategies.
Social implications
The study offers policy suggestions for a sustainable economy, focusing on both COP-27 and the G7 countries. Recommendations include implementing carbon pricing, developing carbon capture and storage technologies, investing in renewables and energy efficiency and introducing financial instruments for emission mitigation. From a COP-27 standpoint, the G7 should prioritize transitioning to low-carbon economies and supporting developing nations in their sustainability efforts to address the pressing challenges of climate change and global warming.
Originality/value
In comparison to the literature, this study examines the importance of financial risk for G7 economies in promoting a sustainable environment. More specifically, in the context of FD and national income with carbon emissions, previous researchers have disregarded the importance of green innovation and human capital, so the current study fills the gap in the literature related to G7 economies by exploring the link between the identified variables related to carbon emissions.
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Folorunsho M. Ajide and James Temitope Dada
Energy poverty is a global phenomenon, but its prevalence is enormous in most African countries, with a potential impact on quality of life. This study aims to investigate the…
Abstract
Purpose
Energy poverty is a global phenomenon, but its prevalence is enormous in most African countries, with a potential impact on quality of life. This study aims to investigate the impact of energy poverty on the shadow economy.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses panel data from 45 countries in Africa over a period of 1996–2018. Using panel cointegrating regression and panel vector auto-regression model in the generalized method of moments technique.
Findings
This study provides that energy poverty deepens the size of the shadow economy in Africa. It also documents that there is a bidirectional causality between shadow economy and energy poverty. Therefore, the two variables can predict each other.
Practical implications
The study suggests that lack of access to clean and modern energy services contributes to the depth of the shadow economy in Africa. African authorities are advised to strengthen rural and urban electrification initiatives by providing adequate energy infrastructure so as to reduce the level of energy poverty in the region. To ensure energy sustainability delivery, the study proposes that the creation of national and local capacities would be the most effective manner to guarantee energy accessibility and affordability. Also, priorities should be given to the local capital mobilization and energy subsidies for the energy poor. Energy literacy may also contribute to the sustainability and the usage of modern energy sources in Africa.
Originality/value
Previous studies reveal that income inequality contributes to the large size of shadow economy in developing economies. However, none of these studies analyzed the role of energy poverty and its implications for underground economic operations. Inadequate access to modern energy sources is likely to deepen the prevalence of informality in developing nations. Based on this, this study provides fresh evidence on the implications of energy deprivation on the shadow economy in Africa using a heterogeneous panel econometric framework. The study contributes to the literature by advocating that the provision of affordable modern energy sources for rural and urban settlements, and the creation of good energy infrastructure for the firms in the formal economy would not only improve the quality of life but also important to discourage underground economic operations in developing economies.
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