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The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.

The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.

The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.

The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.

The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.

The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.

The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

This paper aims to evaluate the quality control systems for constructions in seven countries in Europe with the purpose to trace innovative approaches and best practices that can serve as examples for other countries.

The paper is based on a series of research projects carried out over a number of years. The research results were updated in 2016 with a desktop research project in seven European countries. The results from this latest project form the heart of this paper. The information is organised into tables that describe and analyse the main features of the quality control systems of the countries (e.g. scope, focus and main characteristics of the procedures and quality demands on building professionals).

Several similar trends can be recognised in the quality control systems of the various European Union (EU) countries. Quality control is getting more and more privatised and the control framework is setting checks and balances throughout the construction process. Other findings are that scope and focus of the statutory control is unbalanced. Within the control processes emphasis is put on the safety aspects of complex constructions. Far fewer demands are made on the quality of the builders. Re-orientation of the building regulatory framework seems to be needed.

The paper only focusses on European countries where private quality control is established and on selected topics. The findings are based on desktop research and not on the practical experiences of the stakeholders involved in the countries studied.

The paper draws some important recommendations for policymakers in the building regulatory field. It suggests both an enhancement of the effectiveness of the quality control procedure as well as the commitment of builders to comply with the regulations.

The quality of constructions is essential for the wellbeing and safety of its users, its occupants or its visitors. This applies to the whole range of quality aspects: structural- and fire safety, health, sustainability and usability aspects. The analyses and recommendations of this paper aim to contribute to an improvement of the overall construction quality.

The paper makes an original contribution to the (limited) literature that is available in this field. The results can be used to situate the quality control systems of each member state within the EU, to assess the main trends, and it can be used as a guide to develop strategic choices on possible improvements in each country.

The aggregate index and per capita index have different meanings for some countries or regions. CO₂ emissions per capita matters for China because of its huge population. Therefore, this study aims to deepen the understanding of Kuznets curve from the perspective of CO₂ emissions per capita. In this study, mathematical formulas will be derived and verified.

First, this study verified the existing problems with the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) through multiple regression. Second, this study developed a theoretical derivation with the Solow model and balanced growth and explained the underlying principles of the EKC’s shape. Finally, this study quantitatively analyzed the influencing factors.

The CO₂ emission per capita is related to the per capita GDP, nonfossil energy and total factor productivity (TFP). Empirical results support the EKC hypothesis. When the proportion of nonfossil and TFP increase by 1%, the per capita CO₂ decrease by 0.041 t and 1.79 t, respectively. The growth rate of CO₂ emissions per capita is determined by the difference between the growth rate of output per capita and the sum of efficiency and structural growth rates. To achieve the CO₂ emission intensity target and economic growth target, the growth rate of per capita CO₂ emissions must fall within the range of [−0.92%, 6.1%].

Inspired by the EKC and balanced growth, this study investigated the relationships between China’s environmental variables (empirical analysis) and developed a theoretical background (macro-theoretical derivation) through formula-based derivation, the results of which are universally valuable and provide policymakers with a newly integrated view of emission reduction and balanced development to address the challenges associated with climate change caused by energy.

Over the past decades, the global solar photovoltaic (PV) market has experienced an unprecedented development associated with a substantial decline in solar PV module prices. A body of literature has attempted to identify and evaluate the different sources of price variation. However, the impact of international trade on the price of solar PV modules has not yet been empirically examined. This paper contributes to filling this gap in the literature by providing a comprehensive empirical examination on the relationship between international trade and solar PV module prices.

The author uses a sample of 15 countries over the period 2006–2015 and proposes a linear dynamic panel data model based on a new specification, including a number of relevant factors influencing solar PV module prices.

The empirical analysis reveals that an increase in imports of solar PV cells and modules is associated with a decline in solar PV module prices. This finding suggests that international trade could lead to further price reductions, thus fostering the deployment of solar PV technology. The study reveals several other important findings. Market and technological development are key factors explaining the decline in solar PV module prices. Moreover, government policies such as public budget for R&D in PV and feed-in tariff for solar PV are effective in reducing the price of solar PV modules.

This paper examines the influence of international trade, government policies, market development and technological development on solar PV module prices. The results may be of interest to both academic research and policy analysis.

There is a pressing need to increase investments in sustainable infrastructure to promote low carbon economic growth and ensure environmental sustainability. Consequently, this study examines the socio-political factors underlying the adoption of green bond financing of infrastructure projects.

Primary data was gathered from experts with advanced experience in, or knowledge of green bonds in the Kumasi Metropolis. To identify respondents with pertinent knowledge that is relevant to the study, purposive and snowball sampling techniques were used. One-sample t-test and relative importance index were used in this study's statistical analysis.

‘Training and experience with sustainable finance’ was seen as the most important social factor underlying the adoption of green bond financing of infrastructure projects by the respondents and ‘Governmental tax-based incentives’ was rated as the leading political factor.

This pioneering research attempts to ascertain the socio-political factors affecting the adoption of green bond financing of infrastructure projects. Emergent results of analysis and concomitant discussions add knowledge to fill a void in literature on the social and political factors affecting the adoption of green bond financing of infrastructure projects in developing countries.

Background: Rising food bank usage in the UK suggests a growing prevalence of food insecurity. However, a formalised, representative measure of food insecurity was not collected in the UK until 2019, over a decade after the initial proliferation of food bank demand. In the absence of a direct measure of food insecurity, this article identifies and summarises longitudinal proxy indicators of UK food insecurity to gain insight into the growth of insecure access to food in the 21st century.

Methods: A rapid evidence synthesis of academic and grey literature (2005–present) identified candidate proxy longitudinal markers of food insecurity. These were assessed to gain insight into the prevalence of, or conditions associated with, food insecurity.

Results: Food bank data clearly demonstrates increased food insecurity. However, this data reflects an unrepresentative, fractional proportion of the food insecure population without accounting for mild/moderate insecurity, or those in need not accessing provision. Economic indicators demonstrate that a period of poor overall UK growth since 2005 has disproportionately impacted the poorest households, likely increasing vulnerability and incidence of food insecurity. This vulnerability has been exacerbated by welfare reform for some households. The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically intensified vulnerabilities and food insecurity. Diet-related health outcomes suggest a reduction in diet quantity/quality. The causes of diet-related disease are complex and diverse; however, evidence of socio-economic inequalities in their incidence suggests poverty, and by extension, food insecurity, as key determinants.

Conclusion: Proxy measures of food insecurity suggest a significant increase since 2005, particularly for severe food insecurity. Proxy measures are inadequate to robustly assess the prevalence of food insecurity in the UK. Failure to collect standardised, representative data at the point at which food bank usage increased significantly impairs attempts to determine the full prevalence of food insecurity, understand the causes, and identify those most at risk.

To comply with the adopted Paris Agreement, global finance flows must be measured against climate scenarios consistent with possible pathways towards limiting global warming to 2°C or less. For this, there must be proven and accepted accounting principles for assessing financial plans of climate relevant actors against climate models. As there are a variety of data sources describing the financial plans of relevant actors, these principles must accommodate a variety of reported information, while still yielding relevant metrics to different stakeholders. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

A set of accounting principles tested by governments, financial supervisory bodies and both institutional investors and mangers, covering global-listed equity and corporate bond investment is described.

The application illustrates that a common set of accounting principles can act across both asset classes and provide relevant metrics to multiple stakeholders.

The principles require data of varying quality and are ultimately unverified. Thus, the definitive quality of the output metrics is uncertain and is yet to be characterized. The principles are yet to be applied to the credit market as the information is seldom publicly available, but it too plays an important role in the required market transition and therefore must be incorporated into these guiding principles of analysis.

The principles allow for standardised assessment of financial flows of equity and corporate debt with global climate scenarios.

It illustrates the acceptance of a common set of accounting principles that is relevant across different actors and asset classes and summarizes the principles underlying the first climate finance scenario analyses.