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Bayesian cubature (BC) has emerged to be one of most competitive approach for estimating the multi-dimensional integral especially when the integrand is expensive to evaluate, and alternative acquisition functions, such as the Posterior Variance Contribution (PVC) function, have been developed for adaptive experiment design of the integration points. However, those sequential design strategies also prevent BC from being implemented in a parallel scheme. Therefore, this paper aims at developing a parallelized adaptive BC method to further improve the computational efficiency.

By theoretically examining the multimodal behavior of the PVC function, it is concluded that the multiple local maxima all have important contribution to the integration accuracy as can be selected as design points, providing a practical way for parallelization of the adaptive BC. Inspired by the above finding, four multimodal optimization algorithms, including one newly developed in this work, are then introduced for finding multiple local maxima of the PVC function in one run, and further for parallel implementation of the adaptive BC.

The superiority of the parallel schemes and the performance of the four multimodal optimization algorithms are then demonstrated and compared with the k-means clustering method by using two numerical benchmarks and two engineering examples.

Multimodal behavior of acquisition function for BC is comprehensively investigated. All the local maxima of the acquisition function contribute to adaptive BC accuracy. Parallelization of adaptive BC is realized with four multimodal optimization methods.

The geometric parameters of the compressor blade have a noteworthy influence on compressor stability, which should be meticulously designed. However, machining inaccuracies cause the blade geometric parameters to deviate from the ideal design, and the geometric deviation exhibits high randomness. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to quantify the uncertainty and analyze the sensitivity of the impact of blade geometric deviation on compressor stability.

In this work, the influence of blade geometric deviation is analyzed based on a subsonic compressor rotor stage, and three-dimensional numerical simulations are used to compute samples with different geometric features. A method of combining Halton sequence and non-intrusive polynomial chaos is adopted to carry out uncertainty quantitative analysis. Sobol’ index and Spearman correlation coefficient are used to analysis the sensitivity and correlation between compressor stability and blade geometric deviation, respectively.

The results show that the compressor stability is most sensitive to the tip clearance deviation, whereas deviations in the leading edge radius, trailing edge radius and chord length have minimal impact on the compressor stability. And, the effects of various blade geometric deviations on the compressor stability are basically independent and linearly superimposed.

This work provided a new approach for uncertainty quantification in compressor stability analysis. The conclusions obtained in this work provide some reference value for the manufacturing and maintenance of rotor blades.

There is increasing interest in the connection between Industry 4.0 (I4.0) and operational excellence approaches; however, studies on the integration between Six Sigma (SS) and I4.0 have been absent from the literature. Integration with I4.0 technologies can maximize the positive effects of SS. The purpose of this study is to understand what types of relationships exist between SS and I4.0 and with I4.0's technologies, as well as the benefits derived from this integration and future directions for this field of study.

A Systematic Literature Review (SLR) was carried out to analyze studies about connections between I4.0 technologies and SS. SLR analyzed 59 articles from 2013 to 2021 extracted from the Web of Science and Scopus databases, including documents from journals and conferences.

The SLR identified relationships between SS and several I4.0 technologies, the most cited and with the greatest possibilities of relationships being Big Data/Big Data Analytics (BDA) and Internet of Things (IoT). Three main types of relationships were identified: (1) support of I4.0 technologies to SS; (2) assistance from the SS to the introduction of I4.0 technologies, and, to a lesser extent; (3) incompatibilities between SS and I4.0 technologies. The benefits are mainly related to availability of large data sets and real-time information, enabling better decision-making in less time.

In addition, the study can help managers to understand the integration relationships, which may encourage companies to adopt SS/Lean Six Sigma (LSS) in conjunction with I4.0 technologies. The results also drew attention to the incompatibilities between SS and I4.0 to anticipate potential barriers to implementation.

The study focuses on three previously unexplored subjects: the connection between SS and I4.0, the existing relationships with different technologies and the benefits resulting from the relationships. In addition, the study compiled and structured different types of relationships for SS and I4.0 and I4.0's technologies, identifying patterns and presenting evidence on how these relationships occur. Finally, exposes current trends and possible research directions.

Research and development (R&D) projects are often pursued through a project portfolio (PP). R&D PPs involve many stakeholders, and without proactive management, their interactions may lead to conflict risks. These conflict risks change dynamically with different stages of the PP life cycle, increasing the challenge of PP risk management. Existing conflict risk research mainly focuses on source identification but lacks risk assessment work. To better manage the stakeholder conflict risks (SCRs) of R&D PPs, this study employs the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to construct its dynamic assessment model.

This study constructs a DBN model to assess the SCRs in R&D PP. First, an indicator system of SCRs is constructed from the life cycle perspective. Then, the risk relationships within each R&D PPs life cycle stage are identified via interpretative structural modeling (ISM). The prior and conditional probabilities of risks are obtained by expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Finally, crucial SCRs at each stage are identified utilizing propagation analysis, and the corresponding risk responses are proposed.

The results of the study identify the crucial risks at each stage. Also, for the crucial risks, this study suggests appropriate risk response strategies to help managers better perform risk response activities.

This study dynamically assesses the stakeholder conflict risks in R&D PPs from a life-cycle perspective, extending the stakeholder risk management research. Meanwhile, the crucial risks are identified at each stage accordingly, providing managerial insights for R&D PPs.

The multisource uncertainties, including material dispersion, load fluctuation and geometrical tolerance, have crucial effects on fatigue performance of turbine bladed disks. In view of the aim of this paper, it is essential to develop an advanced approach to efficiently quantify their influences and evaluate the fatigue life of turbine bladed disks.

In this study, a novel combined machine learning strategy is performed to fatigue assessment of turbine bladed disks. Proposed model consists of two modeling phases in terms of response surface method (RSM) and support vector regression (SVR), namely RSM-SVR. Two different input sets obtained from basic variables were used as the inputs of RSM, then the predicted results by RSM in first phase is used as inputs of SVR model by using a group data-handling strategy. By this way, the nonlinear flexibility of SVR inputs is improved and RSM-SVR model presents the high-tendency and efficiency characteristics.

The accuracy and tendency of the RSM-SVR model, applied to the fatigue life estimation of turbine bladed disks, are validated. The results indicate that the proposed model is capable of accurately simulating the nonlinear response of turbine bladed disks under multisource uncertainties, and SVR-RSM model provides an accurate prediction strategy compared to RSM and SVR for fatigue analysis of complex structures.

The results indicate that the proposed model is capable of accurately simulate the nonlinear response of turbine bladed disks under multisource uncertainties, and SVR-RSM model provides an accurate prediction compared to RSM and SVRE for fatigue analysis of turbine bladed disk.

Fused deposition modeling (FDM) is an extensively used additive manufacturing method with the capacity to build complex functional components. Due to the machinery and environmental factors during manufacturing, the FDM parts inevitably demonstrated uncertainty in properties and performance. This study aims to identify the stochastic constitutive behaviors of FDM-fabricated polylactic acid (PLA) tensile specimens induced by the manufacturing process.

By conducting the tensile test, the effects of the printing machine selection and three major manufacturing parameters (i.e., printing speed S, nozzle temperature T and layer thickness t) on the stochastic constitutive behaviors were investigated. The influence of the loading rate was also explained. In addition, the data-driven models were established to quantify and optimize the uncertain mechanical behaviors of FDM-based tensile specimens under various printing parameters.

As indicated by the results, the uncertain behaviors of the stiffness and strength of the PLA tensile specimens were dominated by the printing speed and nozzle temperature, respectively. The manufacturing-induced stochastic constitutive behaviors could be accurately captured by the developed data-driven model with the R² over 0.98 on the testing dataset. The optimal parameters obtained from the data-driven framework were T = 231.3595 °C, S = 40.3179 mm/min and t = 0.2343 mm, which were in good agreement with the experiments.

The developed data-driven models can also be integrated into the design and characterization of parts fabricated by extrusion and other additive manufacturing technologies.

Stochastic behaviors of additively manufactured products were revealed by considering extensive manufacturing factors. The data-driven models were proposed to facilitate the description and optimization of the FDM products and control their quality.

Background: Commodity-driven deforestation is a major driver of forest loss worldwide, and globalisation has increased the disconnect between producer and consumer countries. Recent due-diligence legislation aiming to improve supply chain sustainability covers major forest-risk commodities. However, the evidence base for specific commodities included within policy needs assessing to ensure effective reduction of embedded deforestation.

Methods: We conducted a rapid evidence synthesis in October 2020 using three databases; Google Scholar, Web of Science, and Scopus, to assess the literature and identify commodities with the highest deforestation risk linked to UK imports. Inclusion criteria include publication in the past 10 years and studies that didn't link commodity consumption to impacts or to the UK were excluded. The development of a review protocol was used to minimise bias and critical appraisal of underlying data and methods in studies was conducted in order to assess the uncertainties around results.

Results: From a total of 318 results, 17 studies were included in the final synthesis. These studies used various methodologies and input data, yet there is broad alignment on commodities, confirming that those included in due diligence legislation have a high deforestation risk. Soy, palm oil, and beef were identified as critical, with their production being concentrated in just a few global locations. However, there are also emerging commodities that have a high deforestation risk but are not included in legislation, such as sugar and coffee. These commodities are much less extensively studied in the literature and may warrant further research and consideration.

Conclusion: Policy recommendations in the selected studies suggests further strengthening of the UK due diligence legislation is needed. In particular, the provision of incentives for uptake of policies and wider stakeholder engagement, as well as continual review of commodities included to ensure a reduction in the UK's overseas deforestation footprint.

Evaluating warfighter lethality is a critical aspect of military performance. Raw metrics such as marksmanship speed and accuracy can provide some insight, yet interpreting subtle differences can be challenging. For example, is a speed difference of 300 milliseconds more important than a 10% accuracy difference on the same drill? Marksmanship evaluations must have objective methods to differentiate between critical factors while maintaining a holistic view of human performance.

Monte Carlo simulations are one method to circumvent speed/accuracy trade-offs within marksmanship evaluations. They can accommodate both speed and accuracy implications simultaneously without needing to hold one constant for the sake of the other. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations can incorporate variability as a key element of performance. This approach thus allows analysts to determine consistency of performance expectations when projecting future outcomes.

The review divides outcomes into both theoretical overview and practical implication sections. Each aspect of the Monte Carlo simulation can be addressed separately, reviewed and then incorporated as a potential component of small arms combat modeling. This application allows for new human performance practitioners to more quickly adopt the method for different applications.

Performance implications are often presented as inferential statistics. By using the Monte Carlo simulations, practitioners can present outcomes in terms of lethality. This method should help convey the impact of any marksmanship evaluation to senior leadership better than current inferential statistics, such as effect size measures.

Kriging surrogate model has demonstrated a powerful ability to be applied to a variety of engineering challenges by emulating time-consuming simulations. However, when it comes to problems with high-dimensional input variables, it may be difficult to obtain a model with high accuracy and efficiency due to the curse of dimensionality. To meet this challenge, an improved high-dimensional Kriging modeling method based on maximal information coefficient (MIC) is developed in this work.

The hyperparameter domain is first derived and the dataset of hyperparameter and likelihood function is collected by Latin Hypercube Sampling. MIC values are innovatively calculated from the dataset and used as prior knowledge for optimizing hyperparameters. Then, an auxiliary parameter is introduced to establish the relationship between MIC values and hyperparameters. Next, the hyperparameters are obtained by transforming the optimized auxiliary parameter. Finally, to further improve the modeling accuracy, a novel local optimization step is performed to discover more suitable hyperparameters.

The proposed method is then applied to five representative mathematical functions with dimensions ranging from 20 to 100 and an engineering case with 30 design variables.

The results show that the proposed high-dimensional Kriging modeling method can obtain more accurate results than the other three methods, and it has an acceptable modeling efficiency. Moreover, the proposed method is also suitable for high-dimensional problems with limited sample points.

The modeling cost of the gradient-enhanced kriging (GEK) method is prohibitive for high-dimensional problems. This study aims to develop an efficient modeling strategy for the GEK method.

A two-step tuning strategy is proposed for the construction of the GEK model. First, an auxiliary kriging is built efficiently. Then, the hyperparameter of the kriging model is served as a good initial guess to that of the GEK model, and a local optimal search is further used to explore the search space of hyperparameter to guarantee the accuracy of the GEK model. In the construction of the auxiliary kriging, the maximal information coefficient is adopted to estimate the relative magnitude of the hyperparameter, which is used to transform the high-dimension maximum likelihood estimation problem into a one-dimensional optimization. The tuning problem of the auxiliary kriging becomes independent of the dimension. Therefore, the modeling efficiency can be improved significantly.

The performance of the proposed method is studied with analytic problems ranging from 10D to 50D and an 18D aerodynamic airfoil example. It is further compared with two efficient GEK modeling methods. The empirical experiments show that the proposed model can significantly improve the modeling efficiency without sacrificing accuracy compared with other efficient modeling methods.

This paper developed an efficient modeling strategy for GEK and demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method in modeling high-dimension problems.