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Strong versions of the Precautionary Principle (PP) require regulators to prohibit or impose technology controls on activities that pose uncertain risks of possibly significant environmental harm. This decision rule is conceptually unsound and would diminish social welfare. Uncertainty as such does not justify regulatory precaution. While they should reject PP, regulators should take appropriate account of societal aversion to risks of large harm and the value of obtaining additional information before allowing environmentally risky activities to proceed.

We document how inflation expectations evolved in the United States during the fall of 1933 using narrative evidence from historical news accounts and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts. We find that inflation expectations, after rising substantially during the spring of 1933, moderated in the fall in response to mixed messages from the Roosevelt Administration. The narrative accounts and our econometric model connect the dramatic swings in output growth in 1933 – the rapid recovery in the spring and the setback in the fall – to these sudden movements in inflation expectations.

While women remain the majority of caregivers, gender parity is reported among Millennials, people of color, and LGBTQ caregivers. Such dynamics of care dyads are rarely explored in relationship with caregiver selection, social support, or care outcomes, and without standardized measures we are uncertain whether this trend is associated with youth, demographic changes, or a societal shift. Utilizing the Caregiving in the US 2015 data set, this exploratory, quantitative study examines relationships between gender, primary condition, and two social designations around age (kinship generations and birth cohorts) to develop a preliminary categorization of informal caregivers in the United States by reviewing descriptives and correlations, then testing with multivariate regression. A model combining Millennial caregivers, same-generation dyads, and two primary conditions (mental illness and stroke) successfully predicts variance as to whether a dyad will comprise one woman caring for another woman, the most common dyad. Findings demonstrate the interconnectedness of caregiving generational models, suggesting that categorizing dyads from such variables is viable. This study deepens inquiry into intergenerational caregiving and makes a case for generationality and caregiving to be studied together.

Travel time variability has generally been recognized as one of the most important attributes in travelers' route choice decisions. In fact, many empirical studies have indicated that both passengers and freight carriers are strongly averse to travel time variability, because it introduces uncertainty to their route choice decisions. In this chapter, we examine the effect of incorporating travel time variability and risk-taking behavior into the route choice models and its impact on the estimation of travel time reliability under demand and supply variations.

Reforms of the Vietnamese economy have been widely credited for stabilizing the value of the state-issued currency in the marketplace. Nevertheless, how people evaluate the Vietnamese dong as a symbolic form can be read as a symptom of shifting economic and political forces, above all in Ho Chi Minh City, a city associated with commerce. Through three ethnographic cases – the introduction of “big money,” the scarcity of “new money” in 2002, and the campaign to build Automated Teller Machines (ATMs), this paper analyzes the contentious politics around symbolic exchange that shape confidence in Vietnamese currency.

In this chapter, we define the “inflation forward rates” based on arbitrage arguments and develop a dynamic model for the term structure of inflation forward rates. This new model can serve as a framework for specific no-arbitrage models, including the popular practitioners’ market model and all models based on “foreign currency analogy.” With our rebuilt market model, we can price inflation caplets, floorlets, and swaptions with the Black formula for displaced-diffusion processes, and thus can quote these derivatives using “implied Black's volatilities.” The rebuilt market model also serves as a proper platform for developing models to manage volatility smile risks.

Through this chapter, we hope to correct two major flaws in existing models or with the current practices. First, a consumer price index has no volatility, so models based on the diffusion of the index are essentially wrong. Second, the differentiation of models based on zero-coupon inflation-indexed swaps and models based on year-on-year inflation-indexed swaps is unnecessary, and the use of “convexity adjustment,” a common practice to bridge models that are based on the two kinds of swaps, is redundant.

Government agencies have endeavored, with limited success, to improve the methodological consistency of regulatory benefit–cost analysis (BCA). This paper recommends that an independent cohort of economists, policy analysts and legal scholars take on that task. Independently established “best practices” would have four positive effects: (1) they would render BCAs more regular in form and format and, thus, more readily assessable and replicable by social scientists; (2) improved consistency might marginally reduce political opposition to BCA as a policy tool; (3) politically-motivated, inter-agency methodological disputes might be avoided; and (4) an independent set of “best practices” would provide a sound, independent basis for judicial review of agency BCAs.