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To critically compare three future weather year (FWY) downscaling approaches, based on the 2009 UK Climate Projections, used for climate change impact and adaptation analysis in building simulation software.

The validity of these FWYs is assessed through dynamic building simulation modelling to project future overheating risk in typical English homes in 2050s and 2080s.

The modelling results show that the variation in overheating projections is far too significant to consider the tested FWY data sets equally suitable for the task.

It is recommended that future research should consider harmonisation of the downscaling approaches so as to generate a unified data set of FWYs to be used for a given location and climate projection. If FWY are to be used in practice, live projects will need viable and reliable FWY on which to base their adaptation decisions. The difference between the data sets tested could potentially lead to different adaptation priorities specifically with regard to time series and adaptation phasing through the life of a building.

The paper investigates the different results derived from FWY application to building simulation. The outcome and implications are important considerations for research and practice involved in FWY data use in building simulation intended for climate change adaptation modelling.

The work set out to design and develop an overheating risk tool using the UKCP09 climate projections that is compatible with building performance simulation software. The aim of the tool is to exploit the Weather Generator and give a reasonably accurate assessment of a building's performance in future climates, without adding significant time, cost or complexity to the design team's work.

Because simulating every possible future climate is impracticable, the approach adopted was to use principal component analysis to give a statistically rigorous simplification of the climate projections. The perceptions and requirements of potential users were assessed through surveys, interviews and focus groups.

It is possible to convert a single dynamic simulation output into many hundreds of simulation results at hourly resolution for equally probable climates, giving a population of outcomes for the performance of a specific building in a future climate, thus helping the user choose adaptations that might reduce the risk of overheating. The tool outputs can be delivered as a probabilistic overheating curve and feed into a risk management matrix. Professionals recognized the need to quantify overheating risk, particularly for non‐domestic buildings, and were concerned about the ease of incorporating the UKCP09 projections into this process. The new tool has the potential to meet these concerns.

The paper is the first attempt to link UKCP09 climate projections and building performance simulation software in this way and the work offers the potential for design practitioners to use the tool to quickly assess the risk of overheating in their designs and adapt them accordingly.

Purpose – To investigate the potential impacts of future climate change in the United Kingdom on its road and rail networks.

Methodology/approach – The climate change impacts of increasing summer temperatures, decreasing winter temperatures, increased heavy precipitation, greater numbers of extreme weather events and rises in sea level are reviewed.

Findings – Surface transportation is the most exposed element to the localised impacts of climate change. High summer temperatures will result in road rutting, rail buckling and decreased thermal comfort, whereas more intense winter precipitation will cause flooding, landslips and bridge scour across all modes. For all impacts, it is the extreme events (e.g. heat waves and storms) that are potentially the most devastating. As shown, there are some positive climate change impacts. For example, in the case of winter maintenance, all transport networks stand to benefit.

Originality/value – In order for transport to react appropriately to the potential changes in climate, it is essential to understand how the road and rail networks may be affected and to build strategies for both adaptation and mitigation into plans for future developments for both modes.

The purpose of this paper is to present an alternative approach to facilities and built asset management adaptation planning to climate change based on a hybrid backcasting/forecasting model. Backcasting envisions a future state and examines alternative “pathways of approach” by looking backwards from the future state to the present day. Each pathway is examined in turn to identify interventions required for that pathway to achieve the future state. Each pathway is reviewed using forecasting tools and the most appropriate is selected. This paper describes the application of this approach to the integration of climate change adaptation plans into facilities and built asset management.

The researchers worked with various stakeholders as part of a participatory research team to identify climate change adaptations that may be required to ensure the continued performance of a new educational building over its life cycle. The team identified 2020, 2040 and 2080 year end-goals and assessed alternative pathways of approach. The most appropriate pathways were integrated into the facilities and built asset management plan.

The paper outlines a conceptual framework for formulating long term facilities and built asset management strategies to address adaptation to climate change.

The conceptual framework is validated by a single research case study, and further examples are needed to ensure validity of the approach in different facilities management contexts.

This is the first paper to explore backcasting principles as part of facilities and built asset management planning.

Purpose – The UK road freight sector is an example of an economically important sector that can be viewed from two different perspectives with regards to climate change: firstly, as a significant contributor to the problem in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, and secondly as a likely recipient of significant impacts (both positive and negative) of any resulting change in climate, especially any increase in extreme weather. It is this relatively neglected second perspective, freight as a vulnerable sector, which is explored.

Methodology/approach – The way in which the freight sector develops in the future will be explored both in terms of the future type of freight operations and potential changes in vehicle technology.

Findings – There is a need to understand how the overlying socio-economic scenario influences the development of the freight sector.

Originality/value – The examination of the impact of climate change on the freight sector is a particularly original aspect of this chapter.

In the light of projected climate change impacts on buildings and their occupants, climate change adaptation for built environment to climate change is crucial. The risk of overheating is a key concern, particularly given its effect on heat-related health problems for elderly people. The purpose of this paper is to propose, test, and evaluate the strategies for climate change adaptation to minimise present and future risks of overheating for a new purpose-built care home and extra care accommodation near York.

The overheating risk was assessed through dynamic simulations, using probabilistic projections for 2030s, 2050s and 2080s. Suitable adaptation measures were tested and compared using industry metrics. A stakeholders’ workshop compared the relative effectiveness of the identified measures and made a broader evaluation using defined criteria. Highest-ranked measures were combined into “adaptation packages” in order to populate adaptation timelines for the project.

Results show that the original design presents a severe overheating risk. Increasing thermal mass and slightly improving ventilation are adequate for the 2030s; however solar shading and further improvements of ventilation are necessary for the 2050s. The stress test revealed that even the most effective passive measures combined would be insufficient to maintain comfortable conditions by the 2080s, and mechanical cooling would be needed.

The comparative analysis of adaptation measures using normalised CIBSE TM52 criteria improved risk communication and engagement with the client and the design team. The integration of quantitative and qualitative evaluation criteria led to an appropriate and timely strategy for adaptation.

The purpose of this paper is to present results of an action research addressing climate change adaptation of selected social housing stock in the UK. Climate change continues to pose major challenges to those responsible for the management of built assets. The adaptation required to address long-term building performance affected by climate change rarely get prioritised above more immediate, short-term needs (general built asset management needs).

The study adopts an in-depth participatory action research with a London-based social landlord and integrates climate change adaptation framework and performance-based model established through author’s previous research projects.

A staged process for including adaptation measures in built asset management strategy is developed along with metrics to analyse the performance of the housing stock against climate change impact of flooding. The prioritisation of adaptation measure implementation into long-term built asset management plans was examined through cost-based appraisal.

The research was carried out with a singular organisation, already acquainted with potential climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment. The process adopted will differ for similar organisation in the sector with different settings and limited working knowledge of climate change impact assessment.

The paper concludes with a ten-step process developed as an aide memoir to guide social landlords through the climate change adaptation planning process.

In addition to the practical results from the study, the paper outlines a novel process that integrates resilience concepts, risk framing (to climate change impact) and performance management into built asset management (maintenance and refurbishment) planning.

The energy retrofit of the existing building stock, and specifically the thermal upgrading of the buildings’ envelopes, has been identified as a key action for both the decarbonisation of the built environment and the reduction in fuel poverty. When considering the energy retrofit of heritage buildings it is, however, important to recognise both the technical issues that this entails and the potential impact on their cultural value and the emotional responses to it. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the thermal upgrading of historic timber-framed buildings in the UK.

The paper begins by exploring the cultural significance of this form of building construction, before examining three case studies using both quantitative and qualitative methodologies.

The results show that whilst the application of energy retrofit actions to this emblematic typology may have limited success, the emotional connection of the buildings’ occupants often results in the work resulting in higher user satisfaction than would otherwise be expected.

Although limited in number, the three case studies provide an insight into the complex issues surrounding the low energy retrofit of historic timber-framed buildings. Further research into this area is encouraged.

The paper contains the monitoring of specific retrofit details, the results of which should inform future projects.

The review of the cultural significance of historic timber-frame buildings in the UK underlines the importance of the conservation and continuing survival of these buildings.

Previous heritage retrofit research in the UK has focussed on solid wall construction with little investigation into the issues surrounding the retrofit of historic timber-frame buildings. This paper explores this previously under-researched area. Additionally, this paper begins to explore the possible links between occupants’ emotional connection to historic buildings and their perceived levels of comfort.