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The goal of this paper is twofold: to estimate the unrecorded economy (UE) of Turkey over the period 1987‐2007 using a revised version of the currency demand approach, and to analyze the relationship between the UE and recorded GDP.

The paper proposes to measure the UE using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis. Toda‐Yamamoto causality tests are also conducted to identify the relationship between unrecorded and recorded GDP.

This research provides fresh evidence of the size of the UE relative to the recorded GDP in Turkey, which ranges from 10.7 percent to 18.9 percent over the estimation period. Moreover, empirical evidence concretely suggests that causality runs from the recorded GDP to the UE. However, there exists a mild reverse causality.

Measures of the UE, and particularly those based on monetary approaches, have been criticized on several counts, including their lack of robustness and weak theoretical foundations (e.g. the velocity of money in the recorded economy and in the UE is the same).

This analysis suggests that the UE is pro‐cyclical with respect to the recorded GDP. It suggests that the phenomenon of the UE is more dangerous when the economy is in an expensive phase. Hence, during a positive business cycle, it is clearly desirable for the government that the anti‐UE controls should be more effective.

The ARDL approach to estimating the size of the UE eliminates the criticism of the previous currency demand estimations, which were based on partial adjustment models. Therefore, the paper's econometric selected cointegration methodology and causality test is an improvement over the existing studies.

This paper aims to propose user experience sharing (UES) as a customer-based initiation of value co-creation pertaining to service provision, which represents customers’ level of effort made for the direct benefit of others in their service network. The authors propose and empirically examine a user experience sharing model (UESM) that explicates customer-to-customer (C2C) UES and its impacts on firm-desired customer-based outcomes in online communities.

Based on an extensive review, the authors conceptualize UES and UESM. By using online survey data collected from mobile app users in organic online communities, the authors performed structural equation modeling analyses by using AMOS 24.

The results support the proposed UESM, showing that C2C UES acts as a key driver of both firm-desired customer efforts and customer insights. The results also confirmed that service-dominant (S-D) logic-informed motivational drivers exert a significant impact on C2C UES. Importantly, C2C UES mediates the relationship between S-D logic-informed motivational drivers and firm-desired customer-based outcomes.

This study offers a pioneering attempt to develop an overarching concept, UES, which reflects customers’ initiation of value co-creation, and to empirically examine C2C UES. The empirical evidence supports the key contention that firms should proactively facilitate C2C UES.

This study examines whether the national innovative city pilot policy (NICP) influences urban entrepreneurship (UE). To examine the underlying causal mechanism, this study modeled the city-level intellectual capital index and financing capacity (FC) in the relationship between NICP and UE.

An empirical model of NICP, intellectual capital, FC and entrepreneurship is conceptualized based on theoretical analysis. Using a quasi-natural experiment of China’s NICP, with a sample of 280 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2018, propensity score matching with difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) is used to empirically test the NICP’s impact on UE, mediating effects of intellectual capital and moderation effects of FC.

The results show that the NICP can significantly motivate UE. Intellectual capital plays mediating effects on the relationship between NICP and UE. Moreover, the NICP and intellectual capital’s effects on UE are moderated by FC.

This study provides an important reference for promoting UE through intellectual capital and FC in the construction of the NICP.

This is a pioneering study that develops a theoretical model to incorporate NICP, intellectual capital, FC and UE. This paper applies experimental governance theory in innovative urban scenarios, and verifies its applicability and particularity in the Chinese context.

Compares the values underlying the behaviour of a sample of 87 US, 56 Jamaican, 42 Bahamian, 106 Colombian, and 12 Israeli managers and professional staff. Refers to literature defining individualism and collectivism, uncertainty avoidance, power distance, and masculinity/femininity; as well as literature establishing these values as instrumental or terminal. Hypothesizes that each country‘s respondents will record different instrumental values, with the US respondents being ambitious, independent, intellectual and logical (vertically individualist); the Colombian, Jamaican and Bahamians being ambitious, cheerful, forgiving, helpful, loving, obedient and polite; and the Israelis also valuing the latter six qualities. Describes the methodology used and data analysis. Indicates expected results from the findings, other than the Jamaicans and Bahamians were found to value ambition and independence more highly than hypothesized, and the Israelis valued love and obedience but not cheerfulness and forgiveness. Discusses the implications of the findings in the light of the high failure rate of expatriate assignments.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel and new direct measurement of small investor sentiment in the equity market. The sentiment is based on the individual investors’ internet search activity.

The author measures unexpected changes in the small investor sentiment with AR (1) process, where the residuals capture the unexpected changes in small investor sentiment. The author employs vector autoregressive, Granger causality and linear regression models to estimate the association between the unexpected changes in small investor sentiment and future equity market returns.

An unexpected increase in the search popularity of the term bear market is negatively associated with the following week’s equity market returns. An unexpected increase in the spread (the difference in popularities between a bull market and a bear market) is positively associated with the following week’s equity market returns. The author finds that these effects are stronger for small-sized companies.

By author’s knowledge, the paper is the first that measures the small investor sentiment that is based on the internet search activity for keywords used in the American Association of Individual Investor’s (AAII) survey questions. The paper proposes an alternative small investor sentiment measure that captures the changes in small investor sentiment in more timely fashion than the AAII survey.

Despite numerous studies, our understanding of the determinants of disability insurance (DI) claim rates in the USA is clouded. When the unemployment (UE) rate soars during an economic downturn such as the spread of COVID-19, assuming a linear positive relationship between the two variables, as the prior literature has suggested, forewarns a large spike in DI claim rates. Yet, if the model is misspecified, it can lead to misinformed decisions such as reducing DI awards during an economic downturn when such awards are needed the most. This study aims to improve the accuracy of the DI claims' prediction.

This study suggests that the relationship between the UE rate and DI claim rate is nonlinear and examines this hypothesis using a panel dataset of 866 state-year observations from 2002–2018.

The results provided compelling evidence in support of the proposed quadratic relationship between the UE rate and DI claim rate and revealed that compared to a quadratic model, the linear model overestimated the DI claim rate by approximately 18 percent or 172,000 claims per year.

Given that DI awards represent hundreds of thousands of dollars in present value terms, the impact of increase in DI claims on the Social Security Disability Fund during an economic downturn might not be as high as some model might forecast.

To our knowledge, no other studies have examined a quadratic relationship between the UE rate and the DI claim rate. This study is especially relevant during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its aftermath. In April 2020, the UE rate spiked to nearly 15 percent nationwide, with Nevada and Michigan at 28 percent and 22.7 percent, respectively. The nonlinear model used in this study suggests that, as the UE increases, DI claims increase, albeit at a decreasing rate. On the contrary, a linear relationship between the UE rate and DI claim rates implies that the increase in the DI claim rate would be constant regardless of the UE rate. This misspecification can result in misinformed decisions, such as the reduction of DI awards because of the overestimation of claims during economic downturns. This can lead to lower award rates during economic turmoil when this assistance is most needed.

We highlight key assumptions implicit in the models used by academics conducting research on market efficiency. Most notably, many academics assume that investors can borrow unlimited amounts and construct long-short portfolios at zero cost. We relax these assumptions and examine the attractiveness of long-short strategies as stand-alone investments and as a part of a diversified portfolio. Our analysis illustrates that the key benefit of long-short investing is adding diversification to a portfolio beyond what the market provides. We show that as stand-alone investments, nontrivial risk remains in the “hedge” strategies and that the returns generally do not beat the market in a head-to-head contest. Our findings raise questions about the degree of inefficiency in anomaly studies because plausible measures of costs generally offset strategy returns. The ability to achieve greater diversification may be, but is not necessarily, due to market inefficiency. We also highlight the key role of the generally ignored but critically important short interest rebate and show that absent this rebate, the long-short strategies we examine generally yield insignificant returns.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the information content in letters to shareholders in terms of business content, tone and types of business vocabulary.

The study uses multiple regression models to test the information content concerning business content, tone, and types of business vocabulary in letters to shareholders. Two textual analyses in accounting research dictionaries are used. Loughran and McDonald’s (2011) dictionary is used as a scheme to identify the positive and negative words, and Kothari et al.’s (2009) dictionary is used to identify the business vocabulary.

Letters to shareholders contain incremental information for investors. First, the results show that the market reacts negatively to the content of these letters. The more that business content is disclosed, the lower the abnormal returns. It can be seen that investors catch additional information from letters to shareholders. Second, investors in negative unexpected earnings firms tend to not trust the concentration of positive tone in the letters. Third, some types of business vocabulary in the letters have an influence on investors’ decisions. In addition, larger amounts of business content are seen to be negatively related to firms’ future performance.

Due to the effect of the content of letters to shareholders, the Securities Exchange Commission may wish to consider the results of this study before setting new disclosure regulations. Specifically, some inside information might have a negative effect on market returns.

The study indicates that letters to shareholders are a disclosure venue between companies and investors, where investors react to certain business vocabulary. Some business words are associated with lower future performance. Therefore, the market reacts negatively when these words are reported in the letters.