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Article
Publication date: 7 April 2015

Satish Kumar

The purpose of this paper is to examine the presence of the turn-of-month effect in the Indian currency market for selected currency pairs: USD-INR, EUR-INR, GBP-INR and JPY-INR…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the presence of the turn-of-month effect in the Indian currency market for selected currency pairs: USD-INR, EUR-INR, GBP-INR and JPY-INR, from January 1999 to April 2014.

Design/methodology/approach

Ordinary least square regression analysis is used to examine the presence of the turn-of-month effect and to test the efficiency of the Indian currency market. The characteristics of the returns during the turn-of-month days are compared with that of the non-turn-of-month trading days. The sample period is later divided into two sub-periods, that is, pre- and post-2008 to capture the behavior of returns before and after the 2008 financial crisis.

Findings

The results indicate the existence of pricing patterns which are unique to individual currencies. For the entire sample period, USD and JPY exhibit turn-of-month effect and the returns in turn-of-month trading days are significantly lower than the returns during non-turn-of-month trading days. For the sub-period before 2008, all the currencies exhibit significant turn-of-month effects and the returns in the turn-of-month trading days are significantly lower than those in the non-turn-of-month trading days. However, post-2008; this effect vanishes for all the currencies except for USD.

Practical implications

The results have important implications for both traders and investors. The findings suggest that the investors might not be able to earn excess profits by timing their positions in some particular currencies taking the advantage of turn-of-month effect which in turn indicates that the currency markets have become more efficient with time. The results are in conformity with those reported for the developed markets.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, no study has yet examined these calendar anomalies in the currency markets using data which covers two important periods, pre-2008 and post-2008. Therefore, we provide a pioneer study in which we analyze the calendar anomalies in an emerging currency market (India) by segregating the data before and after 2008 financial crisis.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 May 2018

Meher Shiva Tadepalli and Ravi Kumar Jain

Market efficiency suggests that price of the security must reflect its intrinsic value by impounding all the available and accessible information. Asset pricing in capital markets…

Abstract

Purpose

Market efficiency suggests that price of the security must reflect its intrinsic value by impounding all the available and accessible information. Asset pricing in capital markets has been an exceptionally dynamic area of scholarly research and is considered as a barometer for assessing market efficiency. This phenomenon was very well explained by several market pricing models and theories over the last few decades. However, several anomalies, which cannot be explained by the traditional asset pricing models due to seasonal and psychological factors, were observed historically. The same has been studied by several researchers over the years and is well captured in the literature pertaining to market asset pricing. The purpose of this paper is to revisit the research studies related to a few asset pricing anomalies, collectively referred to as “calendar anomalies”, such as – day-of-the-week, turn-of-the-month, turn-of-the-year and the holiday effects. In this pursuit, a thorough survey of literature in this area, published over the last 80 years (from 1934 to 2016) across 24 prominent journals, has been made and presented in a comprehensive, structured and chronologically arranged major findings and learnings. This literature survey reveals that the existing literature do provide a great depth of understanding around these calendar anomalies often with reference to specific markets, the size of the firm and investor type. The paper also highlights a few aspects where the existing literature is silent or provides little support leaving a gap that needs to be addressed with further research in this area.

Design/methodology/approach

The goal of the study requires a comprehensive review of the past literature related to calendar anomalies. As a consequence, to identify papers which sufficiently represent the area of study, the authors examined the full text of articles within EBSCOHost, Elsevier-Science direct, Emerald insight and JSTOR databases with calendar anomalies related keywords for articles published since inception. Further, each article was classified based on the anomaly discussed and the factors used to sub-categorize the anomaly. Once all the identified fields were populated, we passed through another article by constantly updating the master list till all the 99 articles were populated.

Findings

It is also important to understand at this juncture that most of the papers surveyed discuss the persistence of the asset pricing anomalies with reference to the developed markets with a very few offering evidences from emerging markets. Thus leaving a huge scope for further research to study the persistence of asset pricing anomalies, the degree and direction of the effect on asset pricing among emerging markets such as India, Russia, Brazil vis-a-vis the developed markets. Further, regardless of the markets with reference to which the study is conducted, the research so far appears to have laid focus only on the overall market returns derived from aggregate market indices to explain the asset pricing anomalies. Thus leaving enough scope for further research to study and understand the persistence of these anomalies with reference to various strategic, thematic and sectoral indices in various markets (developed, emerging and underdeveloped countries) across different time periods. It will be also interesting to understand how, some or all of, these established asset pricing anomalies behave over a certain time period when markets move across the efficiency maturity model (from weak form to semi-strong to strong form of efficiency).

Originality/value

The main purpose of the study entails a detailed review of all the past literature pertinent to the calendar anomalies. In order to explore the prior literature that sufficiently captures the research area, various renowned databases were examined with keywords related to the calendar anomalies under scope of current study. Furthermore, based on the finalized articles, a comprehensive summary table was populated and provided in the Appendix which gives a snapshot of all the articles under the current assessment. This helps the readers of the article to directly relate the findings of each article with its background information.

Details

American Journal of Business, vol. 33 no. 1/2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1935-5181

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 August 2018

Satish Kumar

This study aims to examine the presence of the day-of-the-week (DOW), January and turn-of-month (TOM) effect in 20 currency pairs against the US dollar, from January, 1995 to…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the presence of the day-of-the-week (DOW), January and turn-of-month (TOM) effect in 20 currency pairs against the US dollar, from January, 1995 to December, 2014.

Design/methodology/approach

Ordinary least square with GARCH (1,1) framework is used to examine the presence of DOW, January and TOM effect to test the efficiency of the currency markets. The sample period is later divided into two sub-periods of equal length, that is, from 1995 to 2004 and 2005 to 2014, to explore the time-varying behavior of the calendar anomalies. Further, the authors also use the non-parametric technique, the Kruskal–Wallis test, to provide robustness check for the results.

Findings

For the DOW effect, the results indicate that the returns on Monday and Wednesday are negative and lower than the returns on Thursday and Friday which show positive and higher returns. The returns of all the currencies are higher (lower) in January (TOM trading days) and lower (higher) during rest of the year (non-TOM trading days). However, these calendar anomalies seem to have disappeared for almost all currencies during 2005 to 2014 and indicate that the markets have achieved a higher degree of efficiency in the later part of the sample.

Practical implications

The results have important implications for both traders and investors. The findings suggest that the investors might not be able to earn excess profits by timing their positions in some particular currencies taking the advantage of DOW, January or TOM effect, which in turn indicates that the currency markets have become more efficient with time. The results might be appealing to the practitioners as well in a way that they can consider the state of financial market for financial decision-making.

Social implications

The findings of lower returns on Monday and Wednesday and high returns during Thursday and Friday for all the currencies indicate that the foreign investors can take the advantage by going short on Monday and Wednesday and long on Thursday and Friday. Similarly, the returns of all the currencies are higher (lower) in January (TOM trading days) and lower (higher) during rest of the year (non-TOM trading days). During this period, investors in the currency markets could benefit themselves by taking long (short) positions in January (TOM trading days) and short (long) positions during rest of the year (non-TOM trading days).

Originality/value

The author provides a pioneer study on the presence of calendar anomalies (DOW, TOM and the January effect) across a wide range of currencies using 20 years of data from January 1995 to December 2014. To the best of the author’s knowledge, no study has examined the presence of January effect in the currency market; therefore, the author provides the first study in which January effect in a number of currencies is investigated.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 35 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 December 2016

Jeffrey Scott Jones

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of employer-delayed deposits to defined contribution plans on plan participant wealth. The history of regulatory oversight on…

1011

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of employer-delayed deposits to defined contribution plans on plan participant wealth. The history of regulatory oversight on the obligations of employers to remit deposits to defined contribution plans on behalf of employees is discussed. In light of these regulations, the paper discusses and examines situations in which employers may legally delay the deposit of employee contributions to a defined contribution plan and how the existence of various calendar anomalies may impact the returns of plan participants.

Design/methodology/approach

Simulated equity portfolios over the period 1985-2014 are created to determine the economic significance of possible delays in plan deposits on the accumulated wealth of plan participants.

Findings

The findings suggest that in situations where employees are paid monthly at the end of the month, it is always to their benefit to have their funds deposited as soon as possible. However, for employees paid weekly at the end of the week, a slight delay (one to three days) in the deposit of funds by the employer may actually be beneficial for the employee, particularly if the employee invests heavily in small and mid-cap stocks.

Originality/value

This is the first paper to explicitly study the impact of an employer’s timing of deposits to a defined contribution plan on the accumulated wealth of plan participants, and is thus the primary contribution of the paper.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 42 no. 12
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 October 2020

Geeta Singh, Kaushik Bhattacharjee and Satish Kumar

The purpose if this paper is to examine the turn-of-the-month effect in the equity market of three major emerging countries – Brazil, India and China – from January 2000 to…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose if this paper is to examine the turn-of-the-month effect in the equity market of three major emerging countries – Brazil, India and China – from January 2000 to December 2017.

Design/methodology/approach

Ordinary least square regression analysis is used to examine the presence of the turn-of-the-month effect and to test the efficiency of the emerging stock markets. The characteristics of the returns during the turn-of-the-month days are compared with that of the non-turn-of-the-month trading days.

Findings

The average returns during turn-of-the-month days for all the considered emerging market indices are significantly higher than the non-turn-of-the-month days for the full sample. For the subsample analysis, the average returns for Brazil and India for pre-GFC period are higher on the turn-of-the-month days than on the non-turn-of-the-month days. However, the effect disappears in China during the GFC period. During the crisis period, the results show that the turn-of-the-month effect disappears in Brazil and India, whereas for China, the effect is significant. For the post-GFC period, the-turn-of-the-month effect reappears for all the countries.

Practical implications

The results have important implications for both traders and investors. The authors’ results indicate that the market participants can time the stock markets of these countries by taking long positions especially during the times when the turn-of-the-month effect is highly significant.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to study the turn-of-the-month effect, in the key emerging countries such as Brazil, China and India. Second, the authors divide the sample into three subperiods based on the 2008 GFC such as pre-GFC, GFC and post-GFC to understand the dynamic behavior of turn-of-the-month effect over time. Most importantly, the authors control for the day-of-the-week effect while examining the turn-of-the-month effect.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 47 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 February 2016

Satish Kumar and Rajesh Pathak

The purpose of this paper is to examine the presence of the day-of-the-week (DOW) and January effect in the Indian currency market for selected currency pairs; USD-(Indian rupee…

1335

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the presence of the day-of-the-week (DOW) and January effect in the Indian currency market for selected currency pairs; USD-(Indian rupee) INR, EUR-INR, GBP-INR and JPY-INR, from January, 1999 to December, 2014.

Design/methodology/approach

Ordinary least square regression analysis is used to examine the presence of DOW and January effect to test the efficiency of the Indian currency market. The sample period is later divided into two sub-periods, that is, pre- and post-2008 to capture the behavior of returns before and after the 2008 financial crisis. Further, the authors also use the non-parametric technique, the Kruskal-Wallis test, to provide robustness check for the results.

Findings

The results indicate that the returns during Monday to Wednesday are positive and higher than the returns on Thursday and Friday which show negative returns. The returns during January are found to be higher than the returns during rest of the year. Further, all currencies exhibit significant DOW and January effects in pre-crisis period, however, post-crisis; these effects disappear for all currencies indicating that the markets have become more efficient in the later time. The findings can be further attributed to the increased intervention in the forex markets by the Reserve Bank of India after the crisis.

Practical implications

The results have important implications for both traders and investors. The findings suggest that the investors might not be able to earn excess profits by timing their positions in some particular currencies taking the advantage of DOW or January effect which in turn indicates that the currency markets have become more efficient with time. The results are in conformity with those reported for the developed markets. The results might be appealing to the practitioners as well in a way that they can consider the state of financial market for financial decision making.

Originality/value

The authors provide the first study to examine the calendar anomalies (DOW and January effect) across a range of emerging currencies using 16 years of data from January, 1999 to December, 2014. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no study has yet examined these calendar anomalies in the currency markets using data which covers two important periods, pre-2008 and post-2008.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 42 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 March 2022

Satish Kumar

This study examines the turn-of-the-month (TOM) effect in Bitcoin (BIT), Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LIT) cryptocurrencies from August 2015 to August 2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the turn-of-the-month (TOM) effect in Bitcoin (BIT), Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LIT) cryptocurrencies from August 2015 to August 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

Dummy regression model is used to examine the presence of the TOM effect and to test the efficiency of the cryptocurrency market. The characteristics of the returns during TOM days are compared with that of the non-non-TOM trading days. The authors also develop a trading strategy to earn abnormal returns using the TOM effect.

Findings

The authors show that TOM returns are positive and significantly higher than that of non-TOM returns. Interestingly, the authors empirically show that the TOM effect is not driven by the day-of-the-week (DOW) effect or the January effect. Based on the significant TOM effect, the authors formulate a trading strategy that annually outperforms the buy-and-hold strategy for BIT by 21.77% and for LIT by 47.10%. Finally, the results are robust to using a Generailzed Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) model and the January 2018 sell-off.

Practical implications

The results have important implications for both traders and investors. The findings suggest that the investors might be able to earn excess profits by timing their positions in BIT and LIT taking the advantage of the TOM effect.

Originality/value

First, the authors provide the only study to report the evidence of the TOM effect in three leading cryptocurrencies, viz., BIT, LIT and ETH. Second, the authors control for the DOW effect and the January effect while investigating the TOM effect in cryptocurrency market. Finally, this study develops a trading strategy based on which the investors can time the cryptocurrency markets as indicated by the pattern of the TOM effect during the studied time period.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 48 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 March 2023

Khushboo Aggarwal and Mithilesh Kumar Jha

The purpose of this paper is to examine the existence of the day-of-the-week effect in the Indian stock market.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the existence of the day-of-the-week effect in the Indian stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1), Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) (1, 1) and Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) (1, 1) models are employed to examine the day-of-the-week effect in the Indian stock market for the period of 28 years from 3rd July, 1990 to 31st March, 2022.

Findings

The empirical results derived from the GARCH models indicate the existence of day-of-the-week effects on stock returns and volatility of the Indian stock market. The study reveals that all the days of the week are positive and significant in National Stock Exchange (NSE)-Nifty market returns. The findings confirm the persistence of ARCH and GARCH effects in the daily return series. Moreover, the asymmetric GARCH models show that the daily stock returns exhibit significant asymmetric (leverage) effects.

Practical implications

The results of this study established that the Indian stock market is not efficient and there exists an opportunity to the traders for predicting the future prices and earning abnormal profits in the Indian stock market. The findings of the study are important for traders, investors and portfolio managers to earn abnormal returns by cross-border diversification.

Originality/value

First, to the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper is the first to study the day-of-the-week effect in Indian stock market considering the most recent and longer time period (1990–2022). Second, unlike previous research, this study used GARCH models (GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH) to capture the volatility clustering in the data.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 49 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 February 2021

Sashikanta Khuntia and J.K. Pattanayak

This study broadly attempts to explore adaptive or dynamics patterns of calendar effects existed in the cryptocurrency market as per the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH…

Abstract

Purpose

This study broadly attempts to explore adaptive or dynamics patterns of calendar effects existed in the cryptocurrency market as per the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) framework. Another agendum of this study is to investigate the quantum of extra returns which may result from the presence of calendar effects.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study considers both parametric and non-parametric approaches to verify calendar effects empirically. Specifically, this study has implemented Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (1, 1) and Kruskal–Wallis tests in the rolling window approach to reveal adaptive patterns of calendar effects. Additionally, the present study has used the implied trading strategy to evaluate the volume of excess returns resulted from calendar effects than buy-and-hold (BH) strategy.

Findings

The overall results of the current study exhibit that calendar effect in the cryptocurrency market is dynamic rather than static which indicates the calendar effect is a time-varying phenomenon. Moreover, this study also confirmed that ITS is not suitable to obtain extra returns despite the existence of calendar effects.

Research limitations/implications

The present study has covered some broad aspects of calendar anomalies in the cryptocurrency market, keeping aside certain other limitations which need to be addressed in the following dimensions. Future studies may aim at addressing issues like, Turn-of-the-Year effect, Halloween effect, weather effect, and Month-of-the-Year effects, and try to explore the reasons of presence of dynamic patterns of calendar effects.

Practical implications

The significant implication of this study is that it alerts investors about market return predictability due to calendar patterns or effects in different periods. It also suggests the period in which the ITS can perform better than the BH strategy.

Originality/value

It is the first study in the cryptocurrency literature which has adopted the AMH framework to verify adaptive calendar effects or anomalies. Furthermore, this study, instead of a mere examination of the presence of calendar effects, has evaluated the potential of calendar effects to produce extra returns through trading strategies.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 17 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 October 2018

Said Musnadi, Faisal and M. Shabri Abd. Majid

This purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the investors overreaction and underreaction behaviours across the sectoral stock indices in the Indonesian stock market.

Abstract

Purpose

This purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the investors overreaction and underreaction behaviours across the sectoral stock indices in the Indonesian stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

Nine weekly sectoral stock indices, comprising agriculture; mining; basic industry and chemicals; miscellaneous industry; consumer goods industry; property and real estate; infrastructure, utilities and transportation; finance; and trade, service and investment for the period 2009-2012 were analysed using the paired dependent sample t-test. To provide more insightful empirical evidence, the presence of market anomaly of investor’s overreaction and underreaction was examined on five observations with different vulnerable times.

Findings

The study documented that the overreaction anomaly was present among the winner portfolios in the entire sectoral indices. With the exception of the sectoral index of basic industry and chemicals on the loser portfolio, the study documented the presence of underreaction anomaly among all other sectoral indices in Indonesia. These findings implied that the investors might be able to gain significant profits investing their monies in the sectoral stock market in Indonesia by implementing the contrarian strategy.

Originality/value

Originality in this paper lies in the discussion of overreaction of investors in Indonesia where the stock market has great potential and has different characteristics and different problems from other regions.

Details

International Journal of Ethics and Systems, vol. 34 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0828-8666

Keywords

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