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This study aims to propose the use of time series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict gas path performance in aero engines. The gas path is a critical component of an aero engine and its performance is essential for safe and efficient operation of the engine.

The study analyzes a data set of gas path performance parameters obtained from a fleet of aero engines. The data is preprocessed and then fitted to ARIMA models to predict the future values of the gas path performance parameters. The performance of the ARIMA models is evaluated using various statistical metrics such as mean absolute error, mean squared error and root mean squared error. The results show that the ARIMA models can accurately predict the gas path performance parameters in aero engines.

The proposed methodology can be used for real-time monitoring and controlling the gas path performance parameters in aero engines, which can improve the safety and efficiency of the engines. Both the Box-Ljung test and the residual analysis were used to demonstrate that the models for both time series were adequate.

To determine whether or not the two series were stationary, the Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test was used in this study. The first-order ARIMA models were selected based on the observed autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function.

Further, the authors find that the trend of predicted values and original values are similar and the error between them is small.

Jubail Industrial City is one of the largest industrial centers in the Middle East, offering potential opportunities for renewable energy generation. This research paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the wind resources in Jubail Industrial City and proposes the design of a smart grid-connected wind farm for this strategic location.

The study used wind data collected at three different heights above ground level – 10, 50 and 90 m – over four years from 2017 to 2020. Key parameters, such as average wind speeds (WS), predominant wind direction, Weibull shape, scale parameters and wind power density (WPD), were analyzed. The study used Windographer, an exclusive software program designed to evaluate wind resources.

The average WS at the respective heights were 3.07, 4.29 and 4.58 m/s. The predominant wind direction was from the north-west. The Weibull shape parameter (k) at the three heights was 1.77, 2.15 and 2.01, while the scale parameter (c) was 3.36, 4.88 and 5.33 m/s. The WPD values at different heights were 17.9, 48.8 and 59.3 W/m², respectively.

The findings suggest that Jubail Industrial City possesses favorable wind resources for wind energy generation. The proposed smart grid-connected wind farm design demonstrates the feasibility of harnessing wind power in the region, contributing to sustainable energy production and economic benefits.