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Decline of Colombia's illegal gold mining will be slow

Location:

COLOMBIA

There is still profit to be made in informal gold mining, and peace could trigger a surge in illegal activities in 2016

Constitutional changes may spur African unrest

Location:

AFRICA

Recent attempts to alter constitutions have triggered unrest in sub-Saharan Africa, but that may not always be the case

Latin America's 'shadow governance' zones are unstable

Location:

LATIN AMERICA

Turf wars and the evolution of armed groups threaten to trigger violent shifts in established illicitly-governed areas

Myanmar Rohingya crisis will cause global controversy

Location:

MYANMAR

A flare-up of violence in Myanmar has triggered mass refugee flows and sparked regional and global concern

Food can be a politically volatile issue

Location:

INT

Concerns that climate change may affect food merit greater focus on how this could produce instability

Middle East currency weakness will fuel inflation

Location:

MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA

The currencies of Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria have weakened sharply since September; Turkey’s is still exposed

Asia’s coal embrace will imperil climate targets

Location:

INT

More than renewables, coal has met increasing Asian energy demand since 2000, with domestic production rising sharply

Israel-Hamas war risks serious global impact

Location:

ISRAEL/PALESTINIANS

The war has created domestic security, military and economic risks for state supporters of both Israel and Palestine

Trade rebound does not match regional demand outlooks

Location:

INT

Estimates see world trade rebounding from sub-1% to 3.5% in 2024, even though all regions are slowing or growing slowly

International fossil fuel subsidies will weigh heavily

Location:

INT

In 2022, direct and indirect fossil fuel subsidies cost USD7tn (7.1% of global GDP)