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The purpose of this study is to examine how trends in historical data influence two types of predictive judgments: territory selection and salesperson hiring. Sales managers are confronted frequently with decisions that explicitly or implicitly involve forecasting with limited information. In doing so, they conceptualize how the magnitude of these trend effects may be affected by the experience managers have in making these types of judgments. Study 1 provides evidence of a curvilinear relationship between experience and reliance on the trend data whereby the sales territory selections of novice sales managers exhibited greater susceptibility to informational trends than did the evaluations of naïve and expert decision-makers. A benchmark analysis in Study 2 further revealed that the salesperson selections made by novice and expert sales managers were equally biased, albeit in opposite directions, with novices overweighting and experts underweighting historical performance trends. Implications of these findings are discussed, as are avenues for future research.

The authors employ an online experimental design methodology of practicing managers. For Study 1, they use regression, whereas Study 2 uses a deterministic process to develop a priori predictive benchmark forecasts. Ordinary least squares is then used to estimate manager’s decisions, which are then compared to the predictive forecasts to determine accuracy.

Study 1 provides evidence of a curvilinear relationship between experience and reliance on the trend data whereby the sales territory selections of novice sales managers exhibited greater susceptibility to informational trends than did the evaluations of naïve and expert decision-makers. A benchmark analysis in Study 2 further revealed that the salesperson selections made by novice and expert sales managers were equally biased, albeit in opposite directions, with novices overweighting and experts underweighting historical performance trends.

The present inquiry is the first to provide insights into an important issue that has been the subject of equivocal findings, namely, whether experience in a judgmental domain exerts a facilitating or debilitating effect on sales manager decision-making. In this regard, some research supports the intuition that experience in making a particular type of decision can insulate managers from judgmental bias and, in doing so, improve decision quality (see Shanteau, [1992a] for a summary). In contrast, other work provides a more pessimistic view by demonstrating that the quality of decision-making is either unaffected by or can erode with additional experience (Hutchinson et al., 2010). To help reconcile these conflicting findings, the authors presented and tested a theoretical framework conceptualizing how trends may influence predictive judgments across three levels of decision-maker experience.

This paper analyzes variations in the effects of monetary and fiscal shocks on responses of macroeconomic variables, determinacy region, and welfare costs due to changes in trend inflation.

The authors develop the New-Keynesian model, in which the central banks can employ either nominal interest rate (IR rule) or money supply (MS rule) to conduct monetary policies. They also use their capital and recurrent spending budgets to conduct fiscal policies. By using the simulated method of moment (SMM) for parameter estimation, the authors characterize Vietnam's economy during 1996Q1–2015Q1.

The results report that consequences of monetary policy and fiscal policy shocks become more serious if there is a rise in trend inflation. Furthermore, the money supply might not be an effective instrument, and using the government budget for recurrent spending produces severe consequences in the high-trend inflation economy.

This paper's findings are critical for economists and monetary and fiscal authorities in effectively designing both the monetary and fiscal policies in confronting the shift in the inflation targets.

This is the first paper that examines the effects of trend inflation on the monetary and fiscal policy implementation in the case of Vietnam.

This paper provides evidence that the banking sector reforms of 2004 and 2009 enhanced prudential performance of the banking industry and financial system stability in Nigeria.

This study uses regression analysis with regime shift to confirm results from tests of two means and variances model to examine the effectiveness of banking sector reforms in Nigeria.

Evidence from the regression model agrees with findings from the test of means model (not controlling for trend effects) that capital to assets ratio rose while non-performing loan ratio declined after the reforms, and that capital to earning assets ratio rose when trend effects were accounted for. Both the regression model and the tests of means model controlling for trend effects show that return on asset, return on equity and return on earning assets ratios declined after the reforms.

This paper evaluated the effectiveness of banking sector reforms in Nigeria using models that avoid weaknesses that besieged many previous studies. It however used data covering 1983–2020 period, due to data availability. A larger scope of data may improve the results, and future research may re-examine this theme as more data become available. Furthermore, banking stability issues could be examined using specialised techniques such as the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model and related family.

These results suggest that the reforms led to improvement in the sector’s resilience (risks-absorbing capacity) and asset quality, and that profitability had not been the primary focus of the reforms.

The authors recommend that regulatory and supervisory authorities in Nigeria continue to implement and improve on banking sector reforms for a more resilient and functional banking system. As a contribution to social research, this study shows that studies on policy evaluation should be located within appropriate theoretical framework: the theory of change. It shows that an appropriate use of attribution analysis and contribution analysis within this theoretical framework engenders robust analysis and results. Otherwise, the analytical findings would be erroneous and policy advice misguided.

The statistical significance of our findings establishes that the banking sector reforms in Nigeria have been effective in promoting financial system stability in Nigeria. By deploying both the test of means with and without trend effects (an attribution analysis) and the multivariate regression analysis with regulatory shift (a contribution analysis), and relying more on the later for its superiority, this study contributes to the body of knowledge in that, it not only determined the true effects of banking sector reforms in Nigeria for appropriate policy guidance but also demonstrated that, in research, an inappropriate methodology produces results that may diverge from the more accurate ones that were derived from the correct methodology.

This study aims to examine the moment-to-moment (MTM) effects of in-consumption dynamic comments on consumers' responses to digital engagement and the underlying mechanisms involved, as well as the interactive role of advertisements embedded in short-form online video.

This study uses data extracted from 2,081 videos posted on the prominent Chinese online live platform, Bilibili. The hypotheses are tested using regression models and natural language processing.

The results indicate that the intensity of live comments at the beginning negatively affects users' digital engagement, while a corresponding increase in live comments at the end elicits a positive effect. A linear trend and peak difference in live comments intensity positively affect digital engagement, while the variability of live comment intensity exerts a negative effect. These MTM effects were driven by sentiments of live comments. Furthermore, in-video advertisements are likely to amplify the negative beginning effect on users' digital engagement and mitigate the negative variability of live comments.

This study is the first to examine the direct effects of MTM comments from the online temporal sequence perspective, differentiating the process- and performance-based engagement. The mechanism and interactive role of in-video advertisements were identified. These findings contribute to literature on interactive marketing and provide valuable guidance for influencer marketing.

Organisations need to tackle emerging trends that affect business models (BM) by modifying, changing or re‐designing their models. Attending this complex environment by understanding trends and the strategies actors use to handle these competing demands is strategically important for innovation management and sustaining organisations.. Therefore, this study aims to investigate how organisations assess and deal with these complex and relevant challenges.

A total of 18 higher management experts between the ages of 27 and 59 years participated in this four-month qualitative interview-based study. The interviews were analysed by using systematic, qualitative content analysis.

Results showed that all elements of a BM are influenced by emerged trends, and how organisations deal with them can decide whether the impact poses as risk or offers opportunities. Trends trigger two different strategies – reactive and proactive resilience strategies – which are closely related to the change sensitivity of the attributional resilience model, thereby presenting a crucial factor for enhancing resilience. Nevertheless, the proactive resilience strategy seems to be more promising for enhancing organisational resilience regarding the influence of trends on their BM. Moreover, this study found that the usage of foresight methods might be suitable as an important tool for proactive resilience strategy to modification, change or re-design of BM and consequently anticipate trends.

Overall, this study is one of the first that explains how BMs are influenced by trends and how organisations handle them by using organisational resilience strategies.

Four novel trends: water scarcity, income inequality, labor shortage and gentrification, are receiving ever greater attention because of the devastating effects they having on the well-being of humanity. The purpose of this paper is to briefly describe each trend, discuss its effect on tourism and offer support from research as to how tourism can mitigate the effects of these trends.

The article draws on a literature review to identify comparatively new events, patterns and trends that are likely to impede the development of tourism in the coming years.

This study documents the negative implications these trends could have for the future of tourism if they are not well managed. Guidance on how destination managers and travel industry managers can mitigate each of these trends is provided.

Given the damage to humanity these trends have created and the potential future damage they will create, there is a call to researchers to both develop and document ways to mitigate the negative effects of these trends.

Suggested actions on how managers can reduce or eliminate the negative impacts of these trends are provided.

This is one of the first studies to link these novel trends to the implications they have for tourism.

The authors evaluate financial stability and capital flows management objectives of capital controls in the context of four capital control events: removing or imposing controls on capital inflows and removing or imposing controls on capital outflows. The authors use synthetic control method to solve the endogeneity problem stemmed from the timing of capital control implementation. The authors find new evidence that capital controls are not consistently effective in reaching financial stability outcomes but are consistent in reaching capital flows management outcomes. The authors compare our results to estimates using difference-in-difference (DID) and carry out placebo analysis. Finally, we use synthetic DID to correct for the parallel trend bias and show that the results still hold.

Examining multilevel effects of financial and social performance of microfinance institutions (MFIs), the authors aim to investigate microfinance mission drift from the trend effect. The authors also seek to move the literature forward by decomposing the performance variance at different levels and examining whether and how much each level of analysis matters.

Growth curve modeling and variance decomposition analysis were conducted using a dataset consisting of 17,953 observations of 2,902 microfinance institutions in 122 countries from 1999 to 2017.

The study's result shows no evidence of mission drift in the microfinance industry. While MFIs improve their economic returns, they also increase the depth of outreach. In addition, firm-level heterogeneity is the dominant effect which explains 44% of the variance in microfinance financial performance (ROA) and 39% of the variance in social performance (Depth of outreach). The country-level is more critical in explaining financial performance (ROA) than social performance (Depth of outreach), accounting for 11 and 32% of the total variance, respectively. In particular, the interplay between the country-level and organizational-category level accounts for 9 and 11% of the total variance in financial performance (ROA) and social performance (Depth of outreach), respectively.

This study’s multilevel analysis of microfinance performances moves the literature forward by responding to the debate on microfinance mission drift and providing a comprehensive overview of both social and financial performance. By focusing on the trend effect, the result of our models shows that MFIs improve both financial and social performance to fulfill dual missions. The microfinance business model becomes sustainable over time. The study's results of country effect and its interaction effect with different organizational categories reveal the prominence of a good policy design on MFI's mission fulfillment.

Corporate donation behavior sends two financial-related signals, i.e. sufficient cash flow and self-confidence in future earnings. This paper aims to investigate whether these financial-related signals released by corporate donation drive investors to make more optimistic forecasts about the firm’s future earnings per share (EPS) and whether this effect varies across different historical earnings trends.

This study is based on a controlled online experiment with 553 MBA students.

The results demonstrate that a financial signaling mechanism works, but it is moderated by historical earnings trends. When the earnings trend is always increasing, the more the number of financial signals received, the higher the investors’ EPS forecast; when the earnings trend is fluctuating (down then up or up then down), investors’ EPS forecast is higher when they receive financial signal(s) than when they do not, but no additive effect occurs from receiving one signal to two signals; when the earnings trend is always decreasing, investors’ EPS forecast is irrelevant to the number of financial signals received.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to experimentally investigate a possible mechanism to explain investors’ positive response to corporate social responsibility (CSR) (specifically, corporate donation) disclosures – the financial signaling mechanism. This study also extends the research on the impact of financial information on investors’ use of nonfinancial information by investigating the moderating role of historical earnings trends on the financial signaling mechanism of the CSR effect.

Micro-regeneration can effectively enhance a neighborhood’s commercial vitality and serve as a viable approach to boost economic benefits. However, the small scale of micro-regeneration efforts and the fragmented nature of information currently limit the availability of strong empirical evidence demonstrating its impact on neighborhood commercial vitality. The aim of the study was to examine the link between micro-regeneration and neighborhood commercial vitality, focusing on the average, time-lag, spatial spillover, and spatial heterogeneity effects.

Using the panel data set of 1,755 neighborhoods in Chongqing from 2016 to 2021 as the research sample, the difference-in-differences (DID) method was employed in this study to explore the impact micro-regeneration has on neighborhood commercial vitality.

The results illustrate that: (1) micro-regeneration can promote neighborhood commercial vitality in terms of the number and types of local consumption amenities by 27.76 and 5.89%, respectively, with no time-lag effect; (2) the positive spillovers can exist within the range of 5,000 meters–5,500 meters of regenerated neighborhoods; and (3) the effect of micro-regeneration on neighborhood commercial vitality can be greater in peripheral areas than in core areas of the city.

The findings fill the knowledge gap on the relationship between micro-regeneration and neighborhood commercial vitality. Additionally, the results on the time-lag effect, spatial spillover effects, and spatial heterogeneity provide practical implications that can support the government and private sector in developing temporal and spatial arrangements for micro-regeneration projects.