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We examine the informational roles of trades and time between trades in the domestic and overseas US Treasury markets. A vector autoregressive model is employed to assess the information content of trades and time duration between trades. We find significant impacts of trades and time duration between trades on price changes. Larger trade size induces greater price revision and return volatility, and higher trading intensity is associated with a greater price impact of trades, a faster price adjustment to new information and higher volatility. Higher informed trading and lower liquidity contribute to larger bid–ask spreads off the regular daytime trading period.

Coupon and principal Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal Securities (STRIPS) maturing at the same date often trade at different yields. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

This paper analyzes for the first time the maturity structure of these differences for the US Treasury STRIPS market.

The paper surprisingly finds that short-term coupon STRIPS persistently trade at lower yields whereas long-term coupon STRIPS trade at higher yields compared to matched-maturity principal STRIPS.

An integrated analysis of Treasury STRIPS and the underlying notes market allows us to isolate two determinants: first, properties of the underlying notes that spill over to principal STRIPS, and second, the liquidity of coupon STRIPS measured by stripping activity and stripping volume.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the underpricing effect in Treasury auctions.

The paper compares two winner's curse models using a dataset on multi‐unit auctions. The dataset is from Swedish Treasury auctions, which is under a discriminatory auction mechanism. One model is a single‐unit equilibrium model assuming that each bidder bids for 100 percent of the auctioned securities, which is described by Wilson and solved by Levin and Smith. The other model is a multi‐unit model calibrated by Goldreich using the US Treasury auctions data and assumes that each bidder bids for one unit of the auctioned securities.

The empirical results show that, although both models work well in predicting the bid‐shading, the multi‐unit model fits the Swedish Treasury auctions data better than the single‐unit model.

The evidence implies that bidders rationally adjust their bids due to the winner's curse/champion's plague.

This study provides close quantitative predictions of the amount of bid‐shading using both single‐unit model of Wilson and multi‐unit model of Goldreich, and indicates that winner's curse or champion's plague worries bidders in countries other than the USA.

The purpose of this paper is to use the local correlation technique to measure flight to quality, which is defined as a pronounced and generally rapid increase in risk aversion. Flight to quality between American, British, German, Japanese, and Hong Kong spot equity indices and index futures is examined.

The technique of non‐linear local correlation is employed to detect flight to quality in both spot and futures markets. The use of this methodology allows us to properly process both normally or non‐normally distributed time series. In addition, the estimation of local correlation minimizes the theoretical restrictions resulting from the selection of conditional events and the use of linear regression.

As market risk grows, an increase in flight to quality is documented. For example, a crash in the US stock market results in the flight of capital to the Treasury bond market. Evidence of flight to quality from domestic and foreign spot equity markets to US Treasury bonds is provided. Furthermore, flights to quality from domestic and foreign index futures to US bond futures are revealed. The strength of the reaction from one market to the other is measured and reported. Surprisingly, the authors observe that when market risk becomes extremely high, flight to quality diminishes.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that examines flight to quality in the futures markets by applying local correlation analysis. This study broadens the application of local polynomial regression and local correlation analysis.

The purpose of this paper is to provide some rational perspectives for the flight‐to‐liquidity event rather than simply attributing it to the change in investor sentiment.

The paper builds a model to highlight the inherent difference in investors' investment horizon, and thus their sensitivity to changes in transaction costs in the stock and bond markets. When stock market deterioration results in higher trading costs, the existing marginal investor shifts wealth to bonds instead of remaining indifferent between stocks and bonds. At the new equilibrium, there is a higher fraction of bond ownership and a longer average investment horizon among stock holders. The paper then empirically tests the model predictions using data in the US stock and bond markets.

The authors find evidence strongly supporting this paper's theoretical predictions. Days with high stock illiquidity, high stock volatility and low stock return are associated with high yield spread in the bond market. This contemporaneous linkage between the stock market and the bond market is even stronger during periods with strong net outflows from stock mutual funds and strong net inflows to money market funds. The paper also demonstrates the existence of a maturity pattern that the predicted effects, especially the effects of stock illiquidity, are much stronger over shorter maturities.

The finding of this model that the investment horizon of the marginal investor (and thus the equilibrium price impact in the bond market) responds to changes in market conditions contributes to the theoretical debate on whether transaction costs matter. The flow evidence strengthens our understanding of the asset pricing implications of portfolio rebalancing decisions, and the maturity effect bolsters the case for flights to liquidity/quality due to heterogeneity in investment horizon without resorting to investor irrationality or behavioral attributes. In fact, it is arguably difficult to reconcile with a behavioral explanation.

The purpose of this paper is to show that subordinated debt regulatory proposals assume that transactions in the secondary market of subordinated debt can attenuate moral hazard on the part of management if secondary market prices are informative signals of the risk of the institution. Owing to the proprietary nature of dealer prices and the liquidity of secondary transactions, the practical value of information provided by subordinated debt issues in isolation is questionable.

A multivariate dynamic risk signal is proposed that combines fluctuations in equity prices, subordinated debt and senior debt yields. The signal is constructed as a coincident indicator that is based in a time series model of yield fluctuations and equity returns. The extracted signal monitors idiosyncratic risk of the intermediary because yields and equity returns are filtered from market conditions. It is also predictable because it is possible to construct a leading indicator based almost entirely on spreads to Treasury.

The signal for the Bank of America and Banker's Trust is implemented. For Bank of America, the signal points mainly to two events of uprising risk: January 2000 when the bank disclosed large losses in its bond and interest‐rate swaps portfolios; and November 2000 when it wrote off $1.1 billion for bad loans. For Banker's Trust, the signal points to October/November 1995 after the filing of federal racketeering charges against Banker's Trust; and October 1998 when the bank suffered substantial losses from its investments in emerging markets.

The signal is a complementary instrument for regulators and investors to monitor and assess in real time the risk profile of the financial institution.

The purpose of this paper is to summarize and provide commentary on the US Department of Treasury's Blueprint for a Modernized Financial Regulatory Structure, issued on March 31, 2008.

The paper summarizes and comments on the short‐, intermediate‐, and long‐term recommendations laid out in the Blueprint. The short‐term recommendations are to modernize the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, principally by broadening its focus to include the entire financial sector; to address gaps in mortgage origination oversight, principally though creating a federal Mortgage Origination Commission; and to enhance the Federal Reserve Board's current temporary liquidity provisioning process. The Treasury's intermediate‐term recommendations are intended to modernize the regulatory structure and to eliminate duplication. They are to phase out and transition the thrift charter to the national banking charter; to merge the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); to establish a uniform, comprehensive regulatory system for, and create a federal charter for, “systemically important” payment and settlement systems; and to create an optional federal charter for insurers. The Blueprint's long‐term optimal regulatory structure envisions an “objectives‐based” regulatory approach in which three primary regulators would be established to focus individually on market stability regulation, prudential financial regulation and business conduct; three types of charters for financial institutions: federal insured depository institutions, federal insurance institutions, and federal financial services providers; the Federal Reserve Board assuming the role of market stability regulator; a prudential federal regulatory agency to regulate financial institutions with some type of explicit government guarantee associated with their business operations; and a conduct‐of‐business regulatory agency to regulate the business conduct of all financial institutions. In addition to the three objectives‐based regulators, the Blueprint recommends establishing two other regulatory entities: a federal insurance guarantee corporation and a corporate finance regulator.

The Blueprint finds that substantial regulatory reform is necessary to respond to significant developments including globalization of the capital markets, innovative and sophisticated new financial products and trading strategies, growing institutionalization of the capital markets, and convergence of financial service providers and financial products. Among the areas where one may see action and debate in the near future are: broadening the scope and membership of the President's Working Group on Capital Markets, adoption of uniform minimum licensing standards and the creation of a mortgage origination commission, further discussion of the terms and conditions attached to non‐depository institutions' access to the Federal Reserve discount window, continuing debate around the possible merger of the SEC and the CFTC, and updating by the SEC of the self‐regulatory organization (SRO) rule‐making process.

The paper is a clear and concise summary with commentary from expert securities lawyers.

This case study examines the controversial practice by the Commonwealth of Australia during the period 1988–2002 of using currency swaps as part of its debt management strategy. Although the strategy provided a positive return overall, the impact of currency swap usage created significant year-by-year variations in returns, which posed a risk to debt interest and financing requirements. This suggests that the risk limits imposed on this strategy were both inappropriate and insufficient. Nonetheless, these findings provide insights into how such a policy could best be implemented given recent proposals (OECD, 2007) for derivatives use by public debt managers.