Search results

In the face of solving the urban traffic congestion problem radically, emphasis has been laid on the research on slow traffic planning of urban built environment. Hence, research on slow traffic demand forecasting can provide a basis for the planning of urban slow traffic systems. Based on land use, the overall planning of the new Guangming (GM) district, and the population prediction results, the slow traffic demand within the scope of the new district was forecasted by combining the per capita trip frequency, and the spatial distribution of the slow traffic flow of the new GM district was forecasted per the forecasted demand quantity for slow traffic. The following research conclusions were obtained. Within the new GM district, the correlation of the total demand for slow traffic with the land use functions and population distribution was high, and the cross-zone traffic was mainly decided by the land usage of this district. The cross-unit slow traffic flow was concentrated in the Gongming central, Guangming central, high-tech zone, and Yutian zones. This research provides a guideline for the layout of slow traffic facilities in the future.

This case study intends to add knowledge and understanding of supply chain management particularly with respect to international logistics.

The case study can be used in both undergraduate and postgraduate levels. Students pursuing Master of Science in Logistics, Supply Chain Management and those doing bachelor degrees in the same areas can have a better insight and special interest of the case. Professional boards may also use the case to empirically make students understand this area.

The railway sub-sector in East Africa – Tanzania in particular – is an important transport mode but has a declining performance. The market share is estimated at only 4 percent of the freight market. Still knowledge about traffic, particularly for freight, is scant. The main dilemma is whether traffic of the central corridor is more intra- or inter-Tanzania. The case studies techniques appropriate for meaningful traffic forecasting and through a simple regression model it resolves the freight conflicts between Kenya rail and the Central Corridor. It provides students with applied traffic forecasting tools.

The case focuses on techniques of traffic forecasting, development of traffic scenarios and on issues related to intermodal transport especially between road, rail and ocean. At the end of using this Case students should be able to: explain the methods, techniques and models used in traffic forecasting; understand intermodal linkages in international Logistics; use different approaches to make logistics market assessment; and forecast traffic in all modes using different scenarios.

Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or e-mail support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

The purpose of this paper is to look into the fate of a troubled initiative in one of Hong Kong's economic engines – the container handling industry – that was developed in the midst of the discussions between Beijing and London leading towards the historical 1997 handover.

Based on a qualitative in‐depth analysis of a longitudinal case study, the impact of the historical context is shown.

The data suggest that the forecasting gaps are residual of prolonged decision‐making processes featuring a diversity of stakeholders pursuing their respective agendas and making the best of the opportunities presented by powerful contextual events such as the historical 1997 restoration.

A few aspects of the forecasting process make a difference in the likelihood that the traffic forecasts will prove more accurate: improving the interconnectedness of the forecasting tasks; eliminating the problem of assumption drag; and developing knowledge in sociopolitical forecasting.

The value of this longitudinal case study lies in showing that major transport infrastructure forecasts are neither a deceptive nor meaningless series of projections to cool down potential opposition, as argued by the proponents of the political approach. Building a major transport infrastructure takes place through a nest of multifarious and unpredictable processes, intertwined with patterns of other strategic decisions and actions undertaken either by the public or by the private organizations involved, and influenced by major contingencies and historical contextual events over time.

To predict the passenger volume reasonably and accurately, this paper fills the gap in the research of quarterly data forecast of railway passenger volume. The research results can also provide references for railway departments to plan railway operation lines reasonably and efficiently.

This paper intends to establish a seasonal cycle first order univariate grey model (GM(1,1) model) combing with a seasonal index. GM (1,1) is termed as the trend equation to fit the railway passenger volume in China from 2014 to 2018. The railway passenger volume in 2019 is used as the experimental data to verify the forecasting effect of the proposed model. The forecasting results of the seasonal cycle GM (1,1) model are compared with the traditional GM (1,1) model, seasonal grey model (SGM(1,1)), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, moving average method and exponential smoothing method. Finally, the authors forecast the railway passenger volume from 2020 to 2022.

The quarterly data of national railway passenger volume have a clear tendency of cyclical fluctuations and show an annual growth trend. According to the comparison of the modeling results, the authors know that the seasonal cycle GM (1,1) model has the best prediction effect with the mean absolute percentage error of 1.32%. It is much better than the other models, reflecting the feasibility of the proposed model.

As the previous grey prediction model could not solve the series prediction problem with seasonal fluctuation, and there are few research studies on quarterly railway passenger volume forecasting, GM (1,1) model is taken as the trend equation and combined with the seasonal index to construct a combination forecasting model for accurate forecasting results in this study. Besides, considering the impact of the epidemic on passenger volume, the authors introduce a disturbance factor to deal with the forecasting results in 2020, making the modeling results more scientific, practical and referential.

Indian railways (IR) is one of the largest railway networks in the world. As a part of its strategic development initiative, demand forecasting can be one of the indispensable activities, as it may provide basic inputs for planning and control of various activities such as coach production, planning new trains, coach augmentation and quota redistribution. The purpose of this study is to suggest an approach to demand forecasting for IR management.

A case study is carried out, wherein several models i.e. automated autoregressive integrated moving average (auto-ARIMA), trigonometric regressors (TBATS), Holt–Winters additive model, Holt–Winters multiplicative model, simple exponential smoothing and simple moving average methods have been tested. As per requirements of IR management, the adopted research methodology is predominantly discursive, and the passenger reservation patterns over a five-year period covering a most representative train service for the past five years have been employed. The relative error matrix and the Akaike information criterion have been used to compare the performance of various models. The Diebold–Mariano test was conducted to examine the accuracy of models.

The coach production strategy has been proposed on the most suitable auto-ARIMA model. Around 6,000 railway coaches per year have been produced in the past 3 years by IR. As per the coach production plan for the year 2023–2024, a tentative 6551 coaches of various types have been planned for production. The insights gained from this paper may facilitate need-based coach manufacturing and optimum utilization of the inventory.

This study contributes to the literature on rail ticket demand forecasting and adds value to the process of rolling stock management. The proposed model can be a comprehensive decision-making tool to plan for new train services and assess the rolling stock production requirement on any railway system. The analysis may help in making demand predictions for the busy season, and the management can make important decisions about the pricing of services.

The rapid development of e-commerce has brought not only great convenience to people but a great challenge to online stores. Phenomenon such as out of stock and slow sales has been common in recent years. These issues can be managed only when the occurrence of the sales volume is predicted in advance, and sufficient warnings can be executed in time. Thus, keeping in mind the importance of the sales prediction system, the purpose of this paper is to propose an effective sales prediction model and make digital marketing strategies with the machine learning model.

Based on the consumer purchasing behavior decision theory, we discuss the factors affecting product sales, including external factors, consumer perception, consumer potential purchase behavior and consumer traffic. Then we propose a sales prediction model, M-GNA-XGBOOST, using the time-series prediction that ensures the effective prediction of sales about each product in a short time on online stores based on the sales data in the previous term or month or year. The proposed M-GNA-XGBOOST model serves as an adaptive prediction model, for which the instant factors and the sales data of the previous period are the input, and the optimal computation is based on the proposed methodology. The adaptive prediction using the proposed model is developed based on the LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), GAN (Generative Adversarial Networks) and XGBOOST (eXtreme Gradient Boosting). The model inherits the advantages among the algorithms with better accuracy and forecasts the sales of each product in the store with instant data characteristics for the first time.

The analysis using Jingdong dataset proves the effectiveness of the proposed prediction method. The effectiveness of the proposed method is enhanced and the accuracy that instant data as input is found to be better compared with the model that lagged data as input. The root means squared error and mean absolute error of the proposed model are found to be around 11.9 and 8.23. According to the sales prediction of each product, the resource can be arranged in advance, and the marketing strategy of product positioning, product display optimization, inventory management and product promotion is designed for online stores.

The paper proposes and implements a new model, M-GNA-XGBOOST, to predict sales of each product for online stores. Our work provides reference and enlightenment for the establishment of accurate sales-based digital marketing strategies for online stores.

The objective of this research work is to design a data-based solution for administering traffic organization in a smart city by using the machine learning algorithm.

A machine learning framework for managing traffic infrastructure and air pollution in urban centers relies on a predictive analytics model. The model makes use of transportation data to predict traffic patterns based on the information gathered from numerous sources within the city. It can be promoted for strategic planning determination. The data features volume and calendar variables, including hours of the day, week and month. These variables are leveraged to identify time series-based seasonal patterns in the data. To achieve accurate traffic volume forecasting, the long short-term memory (LSTM) method is recommended.

The study has produced a model that is appropriate for the transportation sector in the city and other innovative urban applications. The findings indicate that the implementation of smart transportation systems enhances transportation and has a positive impact on air quality. The study's results are explored and connected to practical applications in the areas of air pollution control and smart transportation.

The present paper has created the machine learning framework for the transportation sector of smart cities that achieves a reasonable level of accuracy. Additionally, the paper examines the effects of smart transportation on both the environment and supply chain.

An important and challenging question for air transportation regulators and airport operators is the definition and specification of airport capacity. Annual capacity is used for long-term planning purposes as a degree of available service volume, but it poses several inefficiencies when measuring the true throughput of the system because of seasonal and daily variations of traffic. Instead, airport throughput is calculated or estimated for a short period of time, usually one hour. This brings about a mismatch: air traffic forecasts typically yield annual volumes, whereas capacity is measured on hourly figures. To manage the right balance between airport capacity and demand, annual traffic volumes must be converted into design hour volumes, so that they can be compared with the true throughput of the system. This comparison is a cornerstone in planning new airport infrastructures, as design-period parameters are important for airport planners in anticipating where and when congestion occurs. Although the design hour for airport traffic has historically had a number of definitions, it is necessary to improve the way air traffic design hours are selected. This study aims to provide an empirical analysis of airport capacity and demand, specifically focusing on insights related to air traffic design hours and the relationship between capacity and delay.

By reviewing the empirical relationships between hourly and annual air traffic volumes and between practical capacity and delay at 50 European airports during the period 2004–2021, this paper discusses the problem of defining a suitable peak hour for capacity evaluation purposes. The authors use information from several data sources, including EUROCONTROL, ACI and OAG. This study provides functional links between design hours and annual volumes for different airport clusters. Additionally, the authors appraise different daily traffic distribution patterns and their variation by hour of the day.

The clustering of airports with respect to their capacity, operational and traffic characteristics allows us to discover functional relationships between annual traffic and the percentage of traffic in the design hour. These relationships help the authors to propose empirical methods to derive expected traffic in design hours from annual volumes. The main conclusion is that the percentage of total annual traffic that is concentrated at the design hour maintains a predictable behavior through a “potential” adjustment with respect to the volume of annual traffic. Moreover, the authors provide an experimental link between capacity and delay so that peak hour figures can be related to factors that describe the quality of traffic operations.

The functional relationships between hourly and annual air traffic volumes and between capacity and delay, can be used to properly assess airport expansion projects or to optimize resource allocation tasks. This study offers new evidence on the nature of airport capacity and the dynamics of air traffic design hours and delay.