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Radical changes in consumer habits induced by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic suggest that the usual demand forecasting techniques based on historical series are questionable. This is particularly true for hospitality demand, which has been dramatically affected by the pandemic. Accordingly, we investigate the suitability of tourists’ activity on Twitter as a predictor of hospitality demand in the Way of Saint James – an important pilgrimage tourism destination.

This study compares the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series model with that of the SARIMA with an exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model to forecast hotel tourism demand. For this, 110,456 tweets posted on Twitter between January 2018 and September 2022 are used as exogenous variables.

The results confirm that the predictions of traditional time-series models for tourist demand can be significantly improved by including tourist activity on Twitter. Twitter data could be an effective tool for improving the forecasting accuracy of tourism demand in real-time, which has relevant implications for tourism management. This study also provides a better understanding of tourists’ digital footprints in pilgrimage tourism.

This study contributes to the scarce literature on the digitalisation of pilgrimage tourism and forecasting hotel demand using a new methodological framework based on Twitter user-generated content. This can enable hospitality industry practitioners to convert social media data into relevant information for hospitality management.

2019冠狀病毒病引致消費者習慣有根本的改變; 這些改變顯示，根據歷史序列而運作的慣常需求預測技巧未必是正確的。這不確性尤以受到大流行極大影響的酒店服務需求為甚。因此，我們擬探討、若把在推特網站上的旅遊活動視為聖雅各之路 (一個重要的朝聖旅遊聖地) 酒店服務需求的預測器，這會否是合適的呢?

本研究比較 SARIMA 時間序列模型與附有外生變數 (SARIMAX)模型兩者在預測旅遊及酒店服務需求方面的表現。為此，研究人員收集在推特網站上發佈的資訊，作為外生變數進行研究。這個樣本涵蓋於2018年1月至2022年9月期間110,456個發佈資訊。

研究結果確認了傳統的時間序列模型，若涵蓋推特網站上的旅遊活動，則其對旅遊需求方面的預測會得到顯著的改善。推特網站的數據，就改善預測實時旅遊需求的準確度，或許可成為有效的工具; 而這發現對旅遊管理會有一定的意義。本研究亦讓我們進一步瞭解朝聖旅遊方面旅客的數碼足跡。

現存文獻甚少探討朝聖旅遊的數字化，而本研究不但在這方面充實了有關的文獻，還使用了一個根據推特網站上使用者原創內容嶄新的方法框架，進行分析和探討。這會幫助酒店從業人員把社交媒體數據轉變為可供酒店管理之用的合宜資訊。

The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

This paper delves into cross-border E-business, unraveling its intricate dynamics and forecasting its future trajectory.

This paper projects the prospective market size of cross-border E-business in China for the year 2023 using the GM (1,1) gray forecasting model. Furthermore, to enhance the analysis, the paper attempts to simulate and forecast the size of China’s cross-border E-business sector using the GM (1,3) gray model. This extended model considers not only the historical trends of cross-border E-business but also the growth patterns of GDP and the digital economy.

The forecast indicates a market size of 18,760 to 18,934 billion RMB in 2023, aligning with the consistent growth observed in previous years. This suggests a sustained positive trajectory for cross-border E-business.

Cross-border e-commerce critically shapes China’s global integration and traditional industry development. The research in this paper provides insights beyond statistical trends, contributing to a nuanced understanding of the pivotal role played by cross-border e-commerce in shaping China’s economic future.

This research aims to determine the ideal fare for various aircraft itineraries by modeling prices using a neural network method. Dynamic pricing has been studied from the airline’s point of view, with a focus on demand forecasting and price differentiation. Early demand forecasting on a specific route can assist an airline in strategically planning flights and determining optimal pricing strategies.

A feedforward neural network was employed in the current study. Two hidden layers, consisting of 18 and 12 neurons, were incorporated to enhance the network’s capabilities. The activation function employed for these layers was tanh. Additionally, it was considered that the output layer’s functions were linear. The neural network inputs considered in this study were flight path, month of flight, flight date (week/day), flight time, aircraft type (Boeing, Airbus, other), and flight class (economy, business). The neural network output, on the other hand, was the ticket price. The dataset comprises 16,585 records, specifically flight data for Iranian airlines for 2022.

The findings indicate that the model achieved a high level of accuracy in approximating the actual data. Additionally, it demonstrated the ability to predict the optimal ticket price for various flight routes with minimal error.

Based on the significant alignment observed between the actual data and the tested data utilizing the algorithmic model, airlines can proactively anticipate ticket prices across all routes, optimizing the revenue generated by each flight. The neural network algorithm utilized in this study offers a valuable opportunity for companies to enhance their decision-making processes. By leveraging the algorithm’s features, companies can analyze past data effectively and predict future prices. This enables them to make informed and timely decisions based on reliable information.

The present study represents a pioneering research endeavor that investigates using a neural network algorithm to predict the most suitable pricing for various flight routes. This study aims to provide valuable insights into dynamic pricing for marketing researchers and practitioners.

This paper aims to propose a new method to derive custom dynamic cyber risk metrics based on the well-known Goal, Question, Metric (GQM) approach. A framework that complements it and makes it much easier to use has been proposed too. Both, the method and the framework, have been validated within two challenging application domains: continuous risk assessment within a smart farm and risk-based adaptive security to reconfigure a Web application firewall.

The authors have identified a problem and provided motivation. They have developed their theory and engineered a new method and a framework to complement it. They have demonstrated the proposed method and framework work, validating them in two real use cases.

The GQM method, often applied within the software quality field, is a good basis for proposing a method to define new tailored cyber risk metrics that meet the requirements of current application domains. A comprehensive framework that formalises possible goals and questions translated to potential measurements can greatly facilitate the use of this method.

The proposed method enables the application of the GQM approach to cyber risk measurement. The proposed framework allows new cyber risk metrics to be inferred by choosing between suggested goals and questions and measuring the relevant elements of probability and impact. The authors’ approach demonstrates to be generic and flexible enough to allow very different organisations with heterogeneous requirements to derive tailored metrics useful for their particular risk management processes.

Measuring shared value (SV) created in innovation ecosystems (IEs) is increasingly relevant but complex, given the multidimensional and multiactor nature of both concepts, which challenges traditional performance measurement systems (PMSs). Moving from this gap, the authors propose an integrated approach to extend the balanced scorecard (BSC) for measuring and monitoring SV creation at IE level.

The proposed approach combines the most recent contributions on PMS in IEs and SV to define perspectives and dimensions that are better suited to deal with the nature of both IEs and SV. The approach is also applied to the real case (Alpha) of an Italian IE through a step wise method. Starting from the IE vision, the authors identify in the strategy map the specific objectives related to each perspective/dimension combination and then associate a performance indicator with each objective.

The resulting SV BSC is composed of indicators interconnected along different perspectives and dimensions. The application of the approach to the real case proves its feasibility and highlights characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the SV BSC when used at IE level. The authors also provide guidelines for its application to other IEs.

The study contributes to the research on PMS by introducing and applying to a real case an integrated approach to assess SV in IEs, overcoming the shortcomings of PMS framed for single firms. It can be of interest for both researchers in the field of ecosystems value creation and practitioners managing or promoting such complex structures.

This paper aims to critically examine the accounting and information systems literature to understand the changes that are occurring in the management accounting profession. The changes the authors are interested in are linked to technology-driven innovations in managerial decision-making and in organizational structures. In addition, the paper highlights research gaps and opportunities for future research.

The authors adopted a grounded theory literature review method (Wolfswinkel et al., 2013) to achieve the study’s aims.

The authors identified four research themes that describe the changes in the management accounting profession due to technology-driven innovations: structured vs unstructured data, human vs algorithm-driven decision-making, delineated vs blurred functional boundaries and hierarchical vs platform-based organizations. The authors also identified tensions mentioned in the literature for each research theme.

Previous studies display a rather narrow focus on the role of digital technologies in accounting work and new competences that management accountants require in the digital era. By contrast, the authors focus on the broader technology-driven shifts in organizational processes and structures, which vastly change how accounting information is collected, processed and analyzed internally to support managerial decision-making. Hence, the paper focuses on how management accountants can adapt and evolve as their organizations transition toward a digital environment.

The variance between the winning bid and the owner's estimated cost (OEC) is one of the construction management risks in the pre-tendering phase. The study aims to enhance the quality of the owner's estimation for predicting precisely the contract cost at the pre-tendering phase and avoiding future issues that arise through the construction phase.

This paper integrated artificial neural networks (ANN), deep neural networks (DNN) and time series (TS) techniques to estimate the ratio of a low bid to the OEC (R) for different size contracts and three types of contracts (building, electric and mechanic) accurately based on 94 contracts from King Saud University. The ANN and DNN models were evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean sum square error (MSSE) and root mean sums square error (RMSSE).

The main finding is that the ANN provides high accuracy with MAPE, MSSE and RMSSE a 2.94%, 0.0015 and 0.039, respectively. The DNN's precision was high, with an RMSSE of 0.15 on average.

The owner and consultant are expected to use the study's findings to create more accuracy of the owner's estimate and decrease the difference between the owner's estimate and the lowest submitted offer for better decision-making.

This study fills the knowledge gap by developing an ANN model to handle missing TS data and forecasting the difference between a low bid and an OEC at the pre-tendering phase.

The primary purpose of this paper is to identify the so-called core authors and their publications according to pre-defined criteria and thereby direct the users to the fastest and easiest way to get a picture of the otherwise pervasive field of bankruptcy prediction models. The authors aim to present state-of-the-art bankruptcy prediction models assembled by the field's core authors and critically examine the approaches and methods adopted.

The authors conducted a literature search in November 2022 through scientific databases Scopus, ScienceDirect and the Web of Science, focussing on a publication period from 2010 to 2022. The database search query was formulated as “Bankruptcy Prediction” and “Model or Tool”. However, the authors intentionally did not specify any model or tool to make the search non-discriminatory. The authors reviewed over 7,300 articles.

This paper has addressed the research questions: (1) What are the most important publications of the core authors in terms of the target country, size of the sample, sector of the economy and specialization in SME? (2) What are the most used methods for deriving or adjusting models appearing in the articles of the core authors? (3) To what extent do the core authors include accounting-based variables, non-financial or macroeconomic indicators, in their prediction models? Despite the advantages of new-age methods, based on the information in the articles analyzed, it can be deduced that conventional methods will continue to be beneficial, mainly due to the higher degree of ease of use and the transferability of the derived model.

The authors identify several gaps in the literature which this research does not address but could be the focus of future research.

The authors provide practitioners and academics with an extract from a wide range of studies, available in scientific databases, on bankruptcy prediction models or tools, resulting in a large number of records being reviewed. This research will interest shareholders, corporations, and financial institutions interested in models of financial distress prediction or bankruptcy prediction to help identify troubled firms in the early stages of distress.

Bankruptcy is a major concern for society in general, especially in today's economic environment. Therefore, being able to predict possible business failure at an early stage will give an organization time to address the issue and maybe avoid bankruptcy.

To the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper to identify the core authors in the bankruptcy prediction model and methods field. The primary value of the study is the current overview and analysis of the theoretical and practical development of knowledge in this field in the form of the construction of new models using classical or new-age methods. Also, the paper adds value by critically examining existing models and their modifications, including a discussion of the benefits of non-accounting variables usage.

This study aims to develop the alleviating bullwhip effects framework (ABEF) replenishment rules, and bullwhip, inventory fluctuations and customer service fulfilment rates were examined. In addition, automated smoothing and replenishment rules can alleviate supply chain bullwhip effects. This study aims to understand the current artificial intelligence (AI) implementation practice in alleviating bullwhip effects in supply chain management. This study aimed to develop a system for writing reviews using a systematic approach.

The methodology for the present study consists of three parts: Part 1 deals with the systematic review process. In Part 2, the study applies social network analysis (SNA) to the fourth phase of the systematic review process. In Part 3, the author discusses developing research clusters to analyse the research state more granularly. Systematic literature reviews synthesize scientific evidence through repeatable, transparent and rigorous procedures. By using this approach, you can better interpret and understand the data. The author used two databases (EBSCO and World of Science) for unbiased analysis. In addition, systematic reviews follow preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

The study uses UCINET6 software to analyse the data. The study found that specific topics received high centrality (more attention) from scholars when it came to the study topic. Contrary to this, others experienced low centrality scores when using NETDRAW visualization graphs and dynamic capability clusters. Comprehensive analyses are used for the study’s comparison of clusters.

This study used a journal publication as the only source of information. Peer-reviewed journal papers were eliminated for their lack of rigorousness in evaluating the state of practice. This paper discusses the bullwhip effect of digital technology on supply chain management. Considering the increasing use of “AI” in their publications, other publications dealing with sensor integration could also have been excluded. To discuss the top five and bottom five topics, the author used magazines and tables.

The study explores the practical implications of smoothing the bullwhip effect through AI systems, collaboration, leadership and digital skills. Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming a preferred tool in the supply chain, so management must understand the opportunities and challenges associated with its implementation. Furthermore, managers should consider how AI can influence supply chain collaboration concerning trust and forecasting to smooth the bullwhip effect.

Digital leadership and addressing the digital skills gap are also essential for the success of AI systems. According to the framework, it is necessary to balance AI performance and accountability. As a result of the framework and structured management approach, the author can examine the implications of AI along the supply chain.

The study uses a systematic literature review based on SNA to analyse how AI can alleviate the bullwhip effects of supply chain disruption and identify the focused and the most important AI topics related to the bullwhip phenomena. SNA uses qualitative and quantitative methodologies to identify research trends, strengths, gaps and future directions for research. Salient topics for reviewing papers were identified. Centrality metrics were used to analyse the contemporary topic’s importance, including degree, betweenness and eigenvector centrality. ABEF is presented in the study.